SWINE FLU UPDATE 30 OCTOBER: WANING DEATHS EXCEPT IN THE POOREST, AND THOSE GIVEN THE GSK VACCINE, OR SEASONAL FLU VACCINE ! :

THE W.H.O. PROMOTES EARLY TAMIFLU AND RELENZA FOR SEVERE CASES:

The WHO briefing note 13 dated 16 OCTOBER 2009 is particularly relevant to Africa:

“ Clinical features of severe cases of pandemic influenza: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 says On the positive side, a growing body of evidence indicates that prompt treatment with the antiviral drugs, oseltamivir or zanamivir, reduces the severity of illness and chances of dying. These findings strengthen previous WHO recommendations for early treatment with these drugs for patients who meet treatment criteria, even in the absence of a positive confirmatory test.

In addition to pneumonia directly caused by the virus, evidence shows that pneumonia caused by bacterial co-infection can also contribute to a severe rapidly progressive illness. Bacteria frequently reported include Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant strains in some cases. As these bacterial co-infections are more frequent than initially recognized, clinicians stressed the need to consider empiric antimicrobial therapy for community acquired pneumonia as an early treatment. .

Disadvantaged populations, such as minority groups and indigenous populations, are disproportionately affected by severe disease. Although the reasons for this heightened risk are not yet fully understood, theories being explored include the greater frequency of co-morbidities, such as diabetes and asthma, often seen in these groups, and lack of access to care.

Although the exact role of obesity is poorly understood at present, obesity and especially morbid obesity have been present in a large portion of severe and fatal cases. Obesity has not been recognized as a risk factor in either past pandemics or seasonal influenza.

Yet the great majority of the South African population, with amongst the highest rates of stress- violence – murder- joblessness- poverty, obesity-diabetes, squalor, malnutrition, AIDs and resistant tuberculosis in the world- ie immunodepletion- has not seen a progressive swine flu epidemic the past two wet weeks. There has not been a swine flu death or seriously ill case reported in South Africa for weeks. Is this surprising when thousands  are dying daily of rampant violence, AIDs, TB,  etc?

GSK VACCINE  RELATED TO MORE DEATHS THAN THE SWINE FLU ITSELF?

And from Sweden, it is reported that while THREE  patients have died there  so far with the swine flu, since vaccination started there a fortnight ago   FIVE patients aged 50 to 90 years have died there  within days of vaccination with the  Glaxo GSK (Pandemrix/Arepanrix- containing aluminium, mercury and squalene) vaccine-  that is also being given in Canada and UK.

Yet the WHO figure today for swine flu deaths in Sweden is still given as only 2.

If death within days of contracting swine flu is attributed to the swine flu virus, then surely unexpected death within days of swine flu vaccine must equally be attributed to that vaccine?

What could be the reason?

It may be that the young are more likely to die from the new H1Ni mutation because with their high immune reactivity  and  not previously exposed to it ie desensitized, so it may cause a cytokine storm that wipes out their lungs.

So why should the elderly be dying after the Glaxo vaccine? Perhaps paradoxically for the same reason as the virus itself is killing children- the Glaxo vaccine contains immune boosters to gear up the body’s antibody response, which response may overwhelm the previously naturally immunized person whose systems are no longer as tough as they were.

It is difficult to find out on the Internet what formulation of anti-swine flu vaccine is being given around the USA. Perhaps it does not contain as much immune booster as the GSK vaccine. It seems that neither suppliers nor the US Govt believe that the public has a right or need  to know what it is being forced to be inoculated with, and pay billions of dollars for. .

Based on the 1918 and 1976 fiascos, and the US license now given vaccine companies to sell whatever untested vaccines they like ie with whatever adjuvants they choose,  without fear of immunity in case of mishap, manufacturers now have a license to make $billions without any risk. The Swedish experience already points the way to carnage- at taxpayers expense since legislators and highranking officials (apart from a convenient chosen scapegoat) are never held accountable.

DEATHS AFTER SEASONAL FLU VACCINATION?

and now Korea reports 5 sudden deaths after seasonal flu vaccine- all in subjects over 80yrs but one at 51yrs – since the Govt began providing free vaccine shots to the elderly. .

but paradoxically,  parts of Canada have suspended vaccination against seasonal flu for those under 65yrs after evidence that this vaccine may increase the risk of swine flu. And some have suggested that seasonal flu vaccine may cross-protect against swine flu- hence there are some advising that kids under 2 yrs have their seasonal flu vaccine postponed!

SWINE FLU UPDATE: TAMIFLU/RELENZA/VACCINE- TOO LITTLE TOO LATE, TOO LITTLE EVIDENCE IN MORTALITY DATA FROM CASE STUDIES. EVIDENCE FAVOURS NATURAL SUPPLEMENTS.

see waning-deaths-except-in-the-poorest-and-those-given-the-GSK-vaccine/

Apropos the current  Swine Flu Conspiracy debate:

N D Burman Cape Town.

As the first 4 sudden deaths within days of swine flu vaccine are reported from Sweden and one from Hungary, and 39 cases of Tamiflu-resistance swine flu isolates have been reported,

Roche the manufacturers of Tamiflu yesterday kindly supplied studies  published 12 October from Canada and Mexico which are most valuable,   most of the victims depressingly young.

Their breakdowns don’t give a global figure of how many of the 226 patients had serious relevant comorbidities ie immunosuppression, cardiopulmonary, diabetic or morbid obesity. One cannot derive the number of serious comorbidity patients from the Mexican paper – in the Canadian paper only 30.4% had ‘major’ comorbidity. .

In the bigger 17week Canadian narrative series of 168 critical hospitalized cases there from April to August, 81% required ventilation;  90% received antivirals, so they cannot judge if these drugs  had benefit or were adverse; mortality was only 17.3% by 90days – promising, but in  a healthier northern population? from more sophisticated costly care? antivirals? or what?.

The smaller 10week Mexican series – 58 critical cases in 899 hospitalized (confirmed or suspected, not necessarily critical) cases from April-June is more helpful: 97% required ventilation; mortality was 41.4% in these critical cases by 60 days; survival was an impressive 7.4 fold higher in the 78%  (45) who received Neuraminidase inhibitors who did not, p <0.006 – but the numbers were small (especially the 13 who were not given NAI), and  they give no table to judge how they arrived at these odds, or the criteria by which NAI were given or were not given.

Neither of these studies  are trials, so one cannot draw any objective conclusions about Neuraminidase Inhibitors NAI effect on serious morbidity or mortality. Considering that hyperacute patients die too fast, and the rest only receive NAI after 3-4 days if sick enough, only a prospective RCT randomized controlled trial with NAI  in all suspected flu cases- with retrospective viral typing  of samples -can show this, and truly assess cost/benefit. The cemetries are littered with acclaimed drugs that were widely used for years until enough deaths occurred for it to become clear that the drugs were actually killers. But legislation enacted by the last Bush Administration  imdemnifies manufacturers from any liability in cases of calamity from their drugs!

Fortunately, with the swine flu rapidly on the decline at least in the USA, manufacturers cannot supply the millions let alone billions of doses  of swine flu vaccine that they and the USA authorities targeted. As HealthNews says, how can they produce anything safe?

By contrast, increasing numbers of practitioners are reporting virtual abolition of swine flu outbreak in patients (both in private practice and in institutions) who take a modest vitamin D3 supplement of 4000-5000iu/day (with up to 1000iu/lb /day for 3 days in any acute infection) .  Obviously the prudent will balance this with the usual protection from at least 800mg marine omega3 oil (eg 3gms 30% or 1g 80% fish oil; and a good multimicronutrient supplement including betacarotene;  zinc; oral ACS colloidal silver;  sutherlandia;  sniffing vitamin C powder; and  a few grams a day of oral  vitamin C – just not enough to cause diarrhoea.

email from Roche: Sent: Wednesday, October 28, 2009 5:41 AM “You can imagine that with the sudden unexpected pandemic all they tried to do is to determine whether the traditional neuraminidase inhibitors like Tamiflu will be effective in treating and preventing the duration, severity and incidence of co-morbidities of the new strain of influenza. .  Fortunately the odds are still in favour of receiving early treatment. We know that Tamiflu is effective in the treatment and prevention in most seasonal and pandemic strains of influenza A and B with very little resistance reported so far. The CDC site is a very useful resource for new information….”

SWINE FLU (?CONSPIRACY) UPDATE- PANDEMIC THAT NEVER WAS: WHAT A WINDFALL FOR THE UNITED $TATES OF EURO-AMERICA.

n d burman cape town

News on the 2009  swine flu pours in daily- see this column’s   last report only 4 days ago.

Roche’s response arrived a few days later.

Conspiracy theory: Definition: “A  theory seeking to explain a disputed case or matter as a plot by a secret group or alliance”…

We all disdain  farfetched conspiracy theories, but some eventually prove true- especially in war, politics and Big Business.  The British Intelligence deception  of the Germans in WW2 over the Sicily landings with The Man Who Never Was was one of the cleverest successful conspiracies at least of WW2. Conspiracy was the downfall of Richard Nixon, but not of  Joseph’s murderous brothers in planning sell him off to slavers going down to Egypt and then telling Jacob that his favourite youngest son had been eaten by a lion; and not of George W Bush- the most successful rogue politician and ruthless warmonger of modern times despite his irrelevant defeat by Al Gore in 2000  in the democratic popular vote. The truth about the $multibillion Armsgate conspiracy (arms which South Africa never needed) between top ANC politicians and various European arms traders is still being suppressed, to protect present and past presidents, politicians and business moguls  in South Africa and Europe…

But since no evidence can be found on Google, Pubmed or the USA Government websites, it is a given  that neither the ”Authorities”  (the Government Health Agencies NIH-CDC-FDA,  the WHO and the European Union) can produce any evidence to justify the claimed pandemic state of 2009 swine flu or its major danger which justify a national state of emergency declaration– in effect, martial law. Truly following in George W Bush’s footsteps after 9/11. Why would Government conceal such public health evidence if there was any? ..

Nor can the same world  ”Authorities”  that regulate and recommend them nor the EuroAmerican  manufacturers  produce any randomized double-blind  controlled trial RCT evidence in humans to satisfy regulatory criteria  for registration and prescription  of  either the recommended (swine flu) antiviral drugs Tamoxifen or Relenza, or vaccines based on both the  hyperinflated but unproven imminent risk theory of this disease or the efficacy versus harm from these costly agents.

So as other sober voices ask, on what evidence  is the USA basing its claims of a dangerous pandemic,  and  its mandatory recommendations? – which are binding on those Authorities’ prudent health professionals as well as on its state employed patients.

The continuously updated USA surveillance report notes explicitly that “Several states have abandoned the counting of confirmed cases. This step is justified by the finding, that at this point of the year more than 98% of detected flu cases are caused by the novel flu. Other states have started to report the number of hospitalized cases instead of infected cases. The CDC discontinued reporting of individual confirmed and probable cases of novel H1N1 infection on July 24, 2009.”  So there are no statistics from the USA to show that morbidity and deaths from swine flu are increasing, let alone attributable primarily to the 2009 H1N1 virus.     In fact  evidence apparently  suggests the opposite since mid-October.

On October 9, 2009, Dr Gary Null & healthcare associates filed for a USA court injunction to stop the FDA distribution of   swine flu vaccines since these violate Federal Law “in its hasty approval of four swine flu vaccines by failing to scientifically determine either the safety or efficacy of the vaccines.”

Profit Driven Swine Flu Propaganda – Pump Up the Volume – is a series of Natural News articles since October 21 by Evelyn Pringle, health freedom writer exposing a conspiracy by rogue USA Government’s arms and Disease  Industry to extort the biggest profiteering in history from drugs and vaccines forced on  billions of people -who may (as in the  previous ’emergency” 1976 pandemic that never happened) derive far more illness than benefit from these unproven drugs.

Authorities – the FDA itself, no less- have hastily on 15 October racked up up this brutal campaign – now against Dr Andrew Weil – to suppress natural nutrition approaches that both work and are safe so as to favour their Disease Industries’ snakeoil profiteering. Under the mantle of no less than a Presidential State of Emergency declared this day October 24  over the nonexistent swine flu pandemic, they impose a ban on  disseminating knowledge- the benefits of proven naturally beneficial nutritionals  eg vitamin C; or astragalus – despite decades of evidence supporting it–  while at the same time stating blatantly ” The Secretary of Health and Human Services, under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act… has determined that a public health emergency exists nationwide involving the H1N1 Flu Virus that affects or has the significant potential to affect national security. Following this determination and in response to requests from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, FDA issued letters authorizing the emergency use of certain unapproved and uncleared products or unapproved or uncleared uses of approved or cleared products...” ie vaccines designed and hastily manufactured only this year, with no  efficacy trials to show reduction in serious illness and deaths and no longterm human safety record, containing known dangerous ingredients.

As if millennia of genocidal suppression of free choice and rights – the Martyrdom of Man – by those in power since recorded history began  was not enough. The greedy and ruthless learn well to manipulate power progressively to subvert justice and security  for all, as Churchill, Ivan Illich, JK Galbraith, Margaret Attwood, Tom Bower, Joe Stiglitz, Naomi Klein, Al Gore so eloquently wrote, and Kissinger’s Kindergarten (Bush father and son, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz) have so profitably  done  the past 35 years for themselves but not the nations including the USA that they sabotaged..

And today Dr Joe Mercola   reports on the CBS expose of massive US  CDC disinformation on their website  about the swine flu “epidemic” in the USA – which is reportedly contradicted by the individual US state health spokespeople.  Finland and Russia at least deproclaimed the pandemic, since nothing has been seen of the disaster predicted for the Southern hemisphere’ past winter – today being the official first day of Spring- , nor for North America in this  October fall month.

Just count  the untold $billions in profits for the USA via the companies who control the FDA – and for governments  around  the world who conspire with the disinformation  and largesse promoted by the  Disease-Industry controlled FDA and EU and  WHO.

It should be noted that Tamiflu is distributed by the Swiss-USA-based  giant Hoffman La Roche; Relenza marketed by UK-USA  giant GSK; and swine flu vaccines are now being mass produced by archaic methods (in hens’ eggs, animal cell cultures)  by GSK , Baxter international (USA) and Novartis (Switzerland-USA)  – containing amongst others the feared neurotoxins mercury-thiomersal, squalene (and- who-knows-even aluminium?)  to be injected, not taken orally when they are likely harmlessly excreted.  Co-incidentally, it was a USA Baxter heparin batch that was found to be contaminated, and in early 2009 a Baxter seasonal flu vaccine  vaccine batch destined for the Czech Republic that was found there to have contamination by a deadly H5N1 strain. Not to mention the US Merck’s intended universal flu vaccine. ; and Merck’s and GSK’s notoriously controversial anti-cervix cancer vaccines which have   been associated with much death and illness in young girls after it too was made mandatory in many regions, despite lack of evidence of benefit in longterm RCTs.

Furthermore, wiki reports that “In January 2009 the  USA awarded Swiss-based Novartis a $486 million contract for construction of the first US plant to produce cell-based influenza vaccine – to be located in North Carolina, aiming to produce  150,000,000 doses of pandemic vaccine within six months of declaring a flu pandemic”.

How’s that for strategic prophetic planning, 2 months ahead of the California-Mexico swine flu outbreak? .Some call it disease-mongering.

What an ‘unexpected’  windfall  the coincidence  of the outbreak of the American-Mexican swine flu epidemic 6 months ago has been for USA –  UK – European-based Disease Industry mega-corporations – all of which have at least one foot in USA-  and thus governments.

Is the outbreak and ensuing $billiondollar industry a fortuitous windfall? As the saying goes, success is not built on luck but on wise  planning.

So the jury will inevitably favour conspiracy theory until the Authorities involved produce the scientific evidence to justify the swine flu “pandemic” proclamation and the multi $billion antiviral drug and mandatory vaccine campaign against the still-awaited swine flu holocaust.

Why does it take the mind  back  to the 2003 USA Bush gang’s  decision  (that made their allied corporations  $billions, and made USA  the world’s biggest aggressor and debtor) to occupy  and destroy Iraq based on USA- ‘Intelligence”-fabricated  evidence that Iraq was a nuclear threat? and the world’s worst Great Depression ever  the past year as a result of Bush- Blair regimes’ conspiracy with the criminal  banking and stockbroking industry?

URGENT UPDATE: AMERICAN/MEXICAN SWINE FLU IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

URGENT WARNING:

The first 2 pneumonia deaths associated with swine flu have now been reported from South Africa. Until details  of their  illness and  pathology tests and  autopsies and treatment   are revealed, as usual we will never know what other underlying risk factors there were.

What can we do to protect ourselves?

New Vitamin D data fits with what we know about fighting infection  – that in both the malnourished ( Dar-es Salaam) and nourished  eg (Canada) AIDS+TB patients, boosting vit D3 , let alone vitamin C,  b-carotene,  zinc,  aloe,  sutherlandia, and  deficient iron, drastically reduced mortality.  eg Grant 2009- Vitamin D also reduces the production of proinflammatory cytokines ie the cytokine storm – for which antioxidants – free radical scavengers– are recommended .

Since we queried 3 months ago why only Mexicans were dying then, many deaths linked to the new H1N1 American-Mexican swine flu  have occurred outside Mexico (although at a far lower rate than in central- the poor- Americas), mostly in the frail but undoubtedly also in the healthy wellnourished very young- in whom the problem seems to include cytokinin storm overwhelming the lungs with  hyperimmune response to a new virus.

Us oldies have both less immune response, and also tolerance from previous exposure. Perhaps (just as us oldies may have inherited some resistance- tolerance from our parents/ grandparents who survived the 1918 & mid-19th Century Russian H1N1 epidemics), our adult children have also inherited tolerance thrrough  us.
Whereas  those who are malnourished AND have AIDs/TB  may have too weak immune systems to respond fatally to this ‘new’ virus.
Dr Barry Shoub head of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases NICD at his UCT  lecture July 2009  agrees – its a relief to hear confirmed that while this virus has spread like wildfire here, there is no increased mortality being reported from the townships where AIDs and  multiple resistant  MRTB are the most rampant and fatal in the world. .   On the other hand, unfortunately cortisone treatment has also not been reported to help those with the apparent hyperimmune response to this new flu.

We mustn’t depend on, wait for rescue with  Tamiflu, Relenza ( resistance spreads rapidly, and adverse effects are serious),  or on a hasty  untested American Swine Flu vaccine – especially if it is laced with squalene let alone mercury or aluminium?.

We urgently need to boost both the frail, and the very young, with what we have: oral antioxidants: vitamin D between 5000-10000 iu/day or 50 000 iu/week; b-carotene about 10 000 iu/day;  zinc 30-60mg/day;    vitamin C+bioflavinoid 50/50(Enhanced Vitamin C) 1/2gm  to 5gm (a heaped teaspoon)  twice a day- increasing gradually over a week to tolerance ie  the dose that doesnt cause diarrhoea; vits E, lipoic acid;  and extra calcium carb 1/2gm twice a day also to minimize vit C diarrhoea;  Probiotics; Aloe; fish oil (eg cod liver oil) a tsp or 4gm a day); sutherlandia; and colloidal silver ACS nasal spray and orally; with a good nonspecific multinutrient. . .

And since this flu virus seems to kill the lungs if it does serious  harm, we need to boost lung defense specifically  with For-Lungspan- N-acetyl cysteine (an antioxidant) and guaifenesin each  a few hundred mg/day.

These all- natural nutritional supplements are  available over the counter – and the more malnourished the person, the less will already make a big difference to nutrition and resistance.

And obviously in the malnourished, or  frail, it is crucial to check hemoglobin and iron levels and reverse iron deficiency if present- deficiency can be assumed  in poor girls/women who are still menstruating, in those with chronic heartburn  let alone previous bowel bleeding or absorption problems, the pregnant, and in poor township kids who are likely riddled with parasites – if their hemoglobin is below ~12g, add iron for sure. .

And obviously general nutrition is crucial: with mass unemployment, and rampant endemic price fixing abuse of basic foodstuffs which business and politicians choose to ignore if not conspire in,  the poor may not be able to afford nourishing balanced diet. But many  do spend money on buying essential supplements – for which they need guidance as above..

And for solace the poor spend more on smoking and alcoholism –  the greatest killers of both users and those they encounter: it is incomprehensible that businesses  employ staff who destroy themselves and others by smoking or  alcohol  abuse, since these are choices. This despite the fact that in most countries suicide – especially assisted suicide- is illegal.

So is the use of sugar, which is one of the deadliest addictions (for promoting  decay, infection, glycation) – especially when it is so easily substituted by a safe alternative sweetener  like stevia or  saccharine-cyclamate, and when the food chain is now stuffed with high-calorie cornstarch.

All commercial sweetened  “cooldrinks” should be banned if they contain the adverse additive  problems of  caffeine  sugar   aspartamate  benzene and/or phosphoric acid.  Like its fermentation product  alcohol C2H5OH,  sugar C6H12O6  is a deadly intoxicant and corrosive oxidant, and should like alcohol be red-labeled  in cooldrinks for sale  solely to consenting adults, since these destabilize the brain (le alone immunity) just like alcohol does, by sending the blood sugar and then insulin soaring and plummeting wildly.  Compare the chemical effects of  about 12-24gm alcohol – 72-150kcalories (an average sugary  a”glass” or two  of beer  or  wine, a generous “tot” of spirits)  with  that of one or two Red Bulls or even Cokes or Fantas.

And undiluted or adulterated commercial “fruit juice” is bad by the glass since it is high in sugar (fructose), it should be used if at all in small volumes diluted in water- and one has to drink perhaps 6 litres a day (or 6kg of fruit)  to obtain 3 gm vitamin C .

If tap water (the best) is not enough, there are  rooibos or  other  teas, chicory, modest coffee, skim milk, and soda water to satisfy all desires- and  for those with a sweet tooth, a relatively safe concentrate to dilute well like Eleven to One in a wide range of fruit flavours. Fresh fruit in moderation, and coloured veggies are always the best, for their roughage, polyphenols, vitamins, antioxidants etc- but they do not provide enough of these for our polluted stressed depressing  and contagious world, especially for the longerlived. .

And with rampant overweight-obesity-(pre)diabetes, fatfree cooking must be enforced, to minimize intake of both carcinogens and worse, glycates , AGES— sugar fused with fat or protein.

UPDATED FIGHT FLU (influenza A or B) and all (eg Swine) infection PRECAUTIONS/ TREATMENT:

May 2009:   PRECAUTIONS against both ‘flu and colds: (see the updated swine flu alert):

CDC WARNING: “Special Considerations for Children: Aspirin or aspirin-containing products  should not be administered to any confirmed or suspected  influenza  case  aged 18 years old and younger due to the risk of Reye syndrome. For relief of fever, other anti-fever  medications are recommended “. These may be acetaminophen paracetamol or  herbal anti-inflammatory drugs.

UK: “Aside from their obligations under health  safety legislation, employers can help to minimise  spread of the virus and support good infection control practice by positively encouraging any employee who reports feeling unwell with influenza-like symptoms to stay at home until their symptoms resolve, by sending people home who develop influenza-like illness at work (avoiding public transport and wearing a face mask if possible) and by ensuring that stocks of surgical facemasks are available in the workplace for symptomatic staff to wear until they get home.– DoH Pandemic Flu Plan, November 2007″

Seasonal Influenza A  is a major risk for older people everywhere, it kills half a million people a year.

The American hybrid H1N1 swine flu is so far only a real risk (>1% mortality) in Mexico, or in people already critically ill with other problems eg malnutrition,  obesity diabetes, emphysema, heart/ kidney  failure, cancer,  etc (who are at high risk of any passing bugs).

During outbreaks of infection, or if you feel a cold/ flu coming on:

–DON’T overstress or overexert yourself.

–STAY AWAY from:   Public transport and busy clinics and offices; or returning overseas travelers –  if you must meet them or  share the car with them, they and you must wear a mask, have  no contact.

–REST at home if you feel feverish/a cold coming on, perhaps take a cold shower twice a day.

– if you have flu, or during outbreaks, wear a SURGICAL MASK in public transport, open clinics- for protection against airborne TB, flu and cold viruses. Don’t share masks with anyone. Discard mask if at all soiled. wash hands often.

BOOST YOUR IMMUNITY: – also against TB, HIV/AIDs and all common chronic diseases

1. DIET/LIFESTYLE: Eat, drink and exercise prudently and regularly, and get plenty of fluids (incl tea), rest and sleep, if needed with melatonin at night for poor sleep; avoid smoking,  sugars and undiluted fruit-juice and sweetened commercial drinks. Tighten diabetic/ overweight  control eg add metformin/galega to tolerance (ie short of nausea/ diarrhoea);      eliminate suspect allergens eg milk- and wheat(gluten) -products.

2. STEAM twice a day if you feel a cold coming on.

3. SNIFF a pinch of ENHANCED VITAMIN C* powder 3 x day (50/50 vitamin C + bioflavinoid – a fruit polyphenol).

4. Take ENHANCED VIT C* rapid stepwise dose increase from 1gm 1/4  tsp  a day  up to 2 tsp (~8gm)  2-6  x/day-less if diarrhoea. some people tolerate only <300mg/d, but most (especially if ill) tolerate up to >100gms a day spread over the 24hours; as infection settles, so does the tolerance drop back toward perhaps <4gms a day.

+ FOR-INFECTION BLEND*.

+ FOR-LUNGS BLEND* if chesty/sinus or smoker, or prone to bronchitis/cough/asthma.

+ SUTHERLANDIA and/or Aloe

+ a good MULTINUTRIENT  for balance incl plenty of garlic; and vitamin D3 and betacarotene each up to 10 000iu and zinc up to 30mg/day. . . plus fish oil plus CoQ10.

5. For prevention consider  a homeopathic ‘Flu VACCINE unless allergic -altho’  it is a nonspecific immune booster. There is as yet no specific H1N1 vaccine. BUT the big question is whether to risk the current mercury/ aluminium-based commercial vaccines ,  or the safe but highly dilute  homeopathic version.  Injections in particular may have powerful placebo effect.

6. Consider nonspecific GAMMAGLOBULIN injection- but it is now very costly because of extra screening for eg hepatitis, HIV – and also not totally without risks. Hyperimmune serum from someone who has recovered from  the current  ie American swine flu  is better, as we know from experience   with eg  rabies, tetanus, Congo fevers- but there are still far too few cases of American flu.

7. If you are on drugs likely to aggravate lung problems or infections – consider with your healthcare provider to reduce or stop  them urgently eg swop problem antihypertensive drugs (betablockers and angiotensin- blockers-ACEI, ARBs) to safer old drugs. Reduce or stop anti-inflammatories NSAIDS or  bisphosphonates eg Fosamax – take the >dozen natural supplements that are always better and far safer against fractures and frailty.  Avoid unnecessary antibiotics as these create, dont help, risks. Cortisone dose can sometimes be modified to reduce risk.

8. What about the ANTIVIRALS  Tamiflu and Relenza? read the problems about them  and decide for yourself whether it is worth the risks and considerable cost… Bloomberg.com today  says “The human form of H1N1 that’s currently circulating is resistant to Roche’s Tamiflu (not GSK’s Relenza)” Last week’s  USA report says “widespread oseltamivir Tamiflu resistance was detected among circulating influenza A (H1N1) viruses in USA; but  all influenza viruses tested this season (ie 2008)  have been susceptible to zanamivir Relenza ” .  Last year “there was 100% H1Ni resistance to Tamiflu in RSA”;  and  “strains resistant to Relenza have been reported”.

” Relenza is a safe and effective treatment for influenza, BUT  needs to be given early after the first symptoms appear –  Six to 12 hours is ideal. Usually the time taken to get a prescription renders it  ineffective. The poor oral bioavailability of Relenza zanamivir  limits dosing to inhalation”.

“An FDA  Public Health Advisory warns  of respiratory problems following inhalation of Relenza by patients with underlying asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. “

Such lung patients in particular need their cortisone pump, and theophylin, and NAcetyl-or-carbo-cysteine +/or guaifenesin, and extra magnesium, vit C, nicotinamide vit B3,  pantothenate vit B5, vit D3 ideally 6000 to 10 000iu/day, and   probiotic.

So the best seems to be to withhold commercial antivirals   until flu strikes, then hit it immediately hard with eg Relenza plus  amantidine/rimantidine.

For prevention combine all the natural supplements and precautions listed above – ESPECIALLY in areas like Southern Africa where major endemic poverty – malnutrition -obesity diabetes,  drug abuse (incl alcohol and cigarette/ cannabis smoking etc), TB, AIDS and cholera abound.

No American swine flu cases have yet been reported in Africa or mainland Asia or India; but with pandemic TB, AIDS, cholera, malaria etc, and winter biting hard this week to herald the usual bad flu season in the Southern hemisphere, it will be harder to distinguish acute flu from other potential infections.

Take this list and go ask you local health care provider  if you have been exposed to and suspect bad flu, as well as your  specialist if you are seeing one – who should all  know more about simple effective local remedies-  but above all, take the simple preventative nonprescription  steps above. .. .

ndb

UPDATE AMERICAN HYBRID SWINE ‘FLU (H1N1) SPREAD:

In future see updates at  https://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/a-false-flu-alarm-what-is-killing-mexicans-in-the-current-flu-outbreak/

Update 26 May 06h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 52 countries is as follows: 12 570cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6764  Mexico4541; Canada921;  Panama 76;  Chile 82; Costa Rica 28; Peru 27;  Colombia 13; Ecuador 24,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 19; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 98.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 136; Portugal 1; UK137; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 19,  Germany 17,  Italy 19   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 8; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 2; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18; UAE 1;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan350, China 20; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 23; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 31; Philippines 1;

All reported  98 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 14 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  11, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 2- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients

Update 25 May 06h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 50 countries is as follows: 12 570cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama 76;  Chile 74; Costa Rica 28; Peru 25;  Colombia 12; Ecuador 12,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 5; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 93.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 133; Portugal 1; UK133; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 19   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 8; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 2; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18; UAE 1;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan345, China 16; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 22; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 18; Philippines 1;

All reported  93 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 12 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  10, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients

Update 24 May 19h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 49 countries is as follows: 12 545cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama 76;  Chile 55; Costa Rica 28; Peru 21;  Colombia 12; Ecuador 10,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 92.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 126; Portugal 1; UK133; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 14;   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 7; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 1; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan342, China 16; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 21; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 17; Philippines 1;

All reported  92 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients.

Update 23 May 05h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections -in 47  countries  is as follows: 12 457 cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama73;  Chile 44; Colombia 12; Ecuador 8, Peru 17; Costa Rica 26;  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala*4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;

EUROPE  20 countries: Spain 126; Portugal 1; UK120; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 14;   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 7; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 1;

East/Asia: 10 countries: Japan321, China 11; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 5; Thailand 2;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand 9, Australia 14; Philippines 1;

All reported  92 associated deaths have been on the North American continent* –  apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 22 May 19h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 46 countries – 11 163 cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA*6552  Mexico*4008; Canada*719;  Panama*73;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 8, Peru 16; Costa Rica* 26;  Brazil* 9, El Salvador* 7;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 4,   Chile 29*; Argentine* 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;

EUROPE  20 countries: Spain** 118; Portugal 1**; UK**117; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  17,  Italy** 14;   Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7; Norway** 4;  Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,   Russia 1;

East/Asia: 10 countries: Japan***317, China 11; Taiwan 5;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, Australia 13***; Philippines 1;

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 90, apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 79 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 21 May 05.30 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 44 countries – 11  167 cases:

The AMERICAS: 16 countries: USA*5764  Mexico*3892; Canada*719;  Panama*69;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 8, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 20;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 6;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 4,   Chile 25*; Argentine* 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1;

EUROPE  19 countries: Spain** 111; Portugal 1**; UK**112; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 4;  Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 292, China 8; Taiwan 3;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 10***; Philipines 1;

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 87, apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 76 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients. More demographic details are awaited, but the CDC today notes that obesity is obviously a major risk factor- as usual.

Update 20 May 07h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 42 countries – 10 390 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*5469  Mexico*3734; Canada*516;  Panama*59;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 1, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 11*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 107; Portugal 1**; UK**107; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 3; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 262, China 7; Taiwan 1;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 5***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 82, apparently still only 9deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  7, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 75 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients. More demographic details are awaited, but the CDC today notes that obesity is obviously a major risk factor- as usual.

Update 19 May 17h30 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 41 countries – 10 232 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*5469  Mexico*3648; Canada*516;  Panama*59;  Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 10*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**102; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 191, China 7;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 80, apparently still only 7 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  5, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 73 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 18 May 15h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 40 countries – 8862 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*4714;  Mexico*3103; Canada*516;  Panama*55;  Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 1; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 2*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**101; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 135, China 6;  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1;      New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 76 , apparently still only 7 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  5, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 69 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 17 May 19h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 40 countries – 8817 cases:

The AMERICAS: 13 countries: USA* 4714;  Mexico*3102; Canada* 516;  Panama* 54; Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 1; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**101; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia:  8Japan*** 93, China 7;  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1;    New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 75 , apparently still only 6 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  4, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 69 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 16 May 07h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 8485cases:  USA* 4714;  Mexico* 2895; Canada* 518; Spain** 103;  UK** 85; Panama* 43; France** 14, Germany**  14, New Zealand*** 9, Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,   Colombia 11*;  Japan*** 4, Belgium 4**,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  Cuba 3, S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Poland 2**, Malaysia 2, and one  each Ecuador, Peru; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,  Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 73 , apparently still only 6 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  4, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 67 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 15 May 06h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 7737cases:  USA* 4298;  Mexico* 2656; Canada* 449; Spain** 100;  UK** 78; Panama* 39; France** 14, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Colombia 10*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Belgium 2**, and one  each Cuba*; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 70 , apparently still only 5 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  3, Costa Ricna 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 65 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 14 May 21h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 7673cases:  USA* 4298;  Mexico* 2656; Canada* 389; Spain** 100;  UK** 78; Panama* 39; France** 14, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Colombia 7*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Belgium 2**, and one  each Cuba*; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 69 , apparently still only 4 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie in USA, Costa Rica  and Canada- and all in previously very ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 65 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well young patients.

Update 13 May 20h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 33 countries – 6483cases, plus ??  suspected  cases;  USA* 3370;  Mexico* 2446; Canada* 358; Spain** 100;  UK** 71; Panama* 29; France** 13, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 9, Colombia 7*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**; Argentine  2*;  and one  each Ireland**,  Austria**, Belgium**, Denmark**, Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**; Australia***;  Cuba*.

Update 12 May 20h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 33 countries – 6042cases, plus ??  suspected  cases;  USA* 3139;  Mexico* 2282; Canada* 330; Spain** 98;  UK**  68; Panama* 18; France** 13, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7,  Japan*** 4,   Netherlands** 3,  El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Colombia 6*; S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Sweden 2**; China 2***; and one  each Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Finland 2**; Poland**, Portugal**; Argentine  2*; Australia***;  Cuba*.  All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 63 , apparently still only 4 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie in USA, Costa Rica  and Canada.

update 11 May 14h00 GMT: the rate of new cases seems to be dropping everywhere, altho laboratories are catching up with the backlog to reveal the extent of those outbreaks in the minority of  regions which could afford or bothered with  testing. Only 4% of confirmed cases have been reported outside the Americas-  and of the 221 cases elsewhere , 202  have been in the 13 European coastal ie Atlantic-Baltic-Mediterranean  countries.

The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 30 countries (up from 19 a week ago) – 5351 cases, plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA* 2733 plus another 433 suspected;  Mexico* 2062; Canada* 284; Spain** 95; UK**  65; France** 13, Germany**  11,  Italy** 9; Costa Rica* 8; Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7,  Japan*** 4, S Korea*** 3; Netherlands** 4, Guatamala* 3;  El Salvador* 4;   Panama* 15; Colombia 3*; Norway** 2; Sweden 2**; and one  each Ireland**  Austria ** Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Poland**, Portugal**; Argentine *   Australia***; China ***  and  Hong Kong***.  All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent.

ie proven swine flu cases:  5021 in the Americas*; 204 in Europe-Israel**; and 17  in the West Pacific arc***. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

61  deaths (57 in Mexicans) have now been reported in patients with confirmed swine flu, but only 28 have so far been  clearly and solely attributed to the virus (not other causes) –  all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 33 deaths  with swine flu virus  but not proven attributable eg   in  very high risk patients  – all Mexicans, plus 2  Americans, a Canadian and a Costa Rican) .   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all proven cases there is thus ~2.8%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border

update 10 May 15h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 30 countries (up from 19 a week ago) – 4571 cases, plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA* 2432 plus another 433 suspected;  Mexico* 1626 (plus  >533 suspected cases); Canada* 280; Spain** 95; UK**  48; France** 12, Germany**  11,  Italy** 9; Costa Rica* 8; Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Brazil* 6, Japan*** 4, S Korea*** 3; Netherlands** 3, Guatamala* 3;  El Salvador* 2;   Panama* 2;  Norway** 2; and one  each Ireland**  Austria ** Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Poland**, Portugal**, Sweden**; Argentine * Colombia*;  Australia*** and  Hong Kong***. All reported deaths so far have been on the North American continent.

ie proven swine flu cases:  4364 in the Americas*; 194 in Europe-Israel**; and 16  in the West Pacific arc***. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

Although 53 deaths have now been reported in patients with confirmed swine flu, only 28 have been attributed to the virus (not other causes) –  all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 25 deaths  with swine flu virus  but not proven attributable eg   in  very high risk patients   in 21 Mexicans, in  2  Americans, a Canadian and a Costa Rican .   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases there is thus ~1.2%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border.

update 9 May 15h00 GMT tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 29 countries- 4040 cases , plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA 2224 plus another 412 suspected;  Mexico 1364 (plus  >533 suspected cases); Canada 242; Spain 93; UK  39; France 12, Germany  11,  Italy 8; Israel 7,  New Zealand 7, Brazil 6, Netherlands  3, Japan 3, S Korea 3;  El Salvador 2;   one  each Ireland  Austria  Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden; Argentine  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Guatamala;  Panama; Australia and  Hong Kong.

ie proven swine flu cases:  3843 in the Americas; 180 in Europe-Israel; and 15  in the West Pacific. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

Only 28  deaths attributed to   proven Mexican  flu have been confirmed – all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 20 deaths  suspect but not proven attributable eg  one  each in  a very high risk woman each in an American woman (cause of death not disclosed)  and  Canada (died from asthma).   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases there is thus ~1.5%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border.

The above stats do not mean that the outbreak has not occurred everywhere. It may simply be that cases (and deaths) are indistinguishable from other infections in vast areas like Africa, Arabia, Russia, China, and are not being monitored and tested for reporting in >70% of the world’s people & countries. .

update 8 May 19h00 GM tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 26 countries- 3446 cases , plus >3300  suspected  cases; Mexico 1364 (plus  >1700 suspected cases); USA 2224 ;  Canada 242; Spain  93; UK  40; Germany  11, France 12,Israel 7,  New Zealand 7, Italy 8;  Brazil 6,Netherlands  3,  S Korea 3;  El Salvador 2;   one  each  Argentine 1, Colombia, Costa Rica;  Guatamala;   Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden; and  Hong Kong.

ie proven swine flu cases:  3255 in the Americas; 174 in Europe-Israel; and 9 in the West Pacific. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico are simply not happening – and even in Mexico, the fatality rate among those swine flu positive is s0 far only 0.4%

48  deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – 46 in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); ( one in  a very high risk American woman Texan  living on the Mexican  border severely obese, already pneumonic after recent childbirth; and one in a very high risk elderly Canadian woman in Canada;).  The death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases is thus ~1.5%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border. The impression grows that the new hybrid strain is in fact less virulent than the seasonal flu viruses long circulating around the world; and that in Mexico and elsewhere, as in 1918 , deaths are either where this new mild virus has become the final tipping straw, or else death is in fact due not to the incidental swine flu virus but to a co-infecting bug – eg the strep pneumonia (which killed most in the ’18  H1N1 epidemic) or one of the prevalent virulent influenza A  N2- or N3- or N5-H.. viruses.

Update 6 May 20h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows (no longer reporting WHO figures as up to yesterday, but confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 23  countries- 2267 cases , plus >4100 suspected  cases; Mexico 1112 (plus  >2955 suspected cases); USA  831 ;  Canada 165; Spain  81; UK  32; Germany  9, France 7,New Zealand 5, Italy 5; Israel 4, El Salvador 2;  S Korea2;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Guatamala..

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  1726 ie 92.6% ;  W Europe+ Israel 134;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland EurAsia O.

Update 5 May 21h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows:  world- 21 countries-  1478 cases , and 833  suspected probable cases; Mexico 806 (out of >2950 suspected cases); USA  405 ;  Canada 140; Spain  57; UK  28; Germany  9, New Zealand 6, Italy 5; Israel 4, France 4, El Salvador 2;  S Korea2;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal.

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  1355 ie 90% ;  W Europe+ Israel 113;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland EurAsia O.

27 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 5 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yr. The death rate in Mexicans relative to all suspected  cases is thus about 1%.

Update 4 May 17h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows:  world- 21 countries-  1103cases out of >4600  suspected probable cases; Mexico 590 (out of >2500 suspected cases; USA  293 ;  Canada 101; Spain  54; UK  27; Germany  8, New Zealand 6, Israel 4, , El Salvador 2; France 4,  Italy 4;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica; S Korea, Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal.

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  949; W Europe+ Israel 103;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland Asia O.

26 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 5 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yrs.

update 3 May 16h00 GMT:  Mexico, USA, Canada, UK   and Spain have extra cases confirmed, and  3 new confirmed related deaths in Mexico- the last in  midweek- but no new countries have confirmed cases since yesterday.  Now another 11 suspicious  cases have reportedly died in Mexico since yesterday.  But no evidence of confirmation has been disclosed.   SO THERE IS NO PANDEMIC, and no spreading epidemic- only North America is heavily involved.  So the only slight possibility of this mild flu epidemic outside the Americas is in Western Europe.

People die everyday – the majority suddenly- of both common and bizarre  causes.  It is hair-raising that after a month, there are still no reports anywhere to indicate whether deaths in cases with the hybrid American flu virus had any clear cause of death attributable to the virus eg virus meningitis, virus pneumonitis, virus carditis, virus hepatitis,  etc. So there is no proof yet that this H1N1 virus has actually killed anyone (as  opposed to them dying of malnutrition, exposure, bacterial or other viral  infection, cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc, although also carrying the new hybrid H1N1 virus). Is the analogy AIDS? where the cause of death is often secondary infections.

tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows: world- 19 countries-  909 cases out of >4120  suspected probable cases; Mexico 506 (out of >2500 suspected cases; USA  233 (and another 514 probable?) ; Canada 85; Spain  44; UK  18 (and another 9 probable?), Germany  8, New Zealand 4, Israel 4, Costa Rica 2, France 2 (and another 7 probable?),  Italy 2;   one  each  Colombia, S Korea, Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland.

ie confirmed cases: N America  826; W Europe+ Israel 83;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland Asia O.

20 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 4 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yrs. No autopsy results yet confirm whether overwhelming Mexican flu has actually caused a single death. . . The associated death rate in Mexico is   still only 4% of confirmed cases – which means that by now – if it is the American swine virus causing death- around  18 deaths could have been expected in non-Mexicans. But so far there have been no very ill cases or suspicious deaths  except in Mexicans . . is this just a false alarm, or a profiteering conspiracy?

update 2 May 17h00 GMT:   THERE IS NO GLOBAL EPIDEMIC NOR THREATENED PANDEMIC. Despite a gross  of  recent flu cases being screened in Australia, not one has so far been positive for the hybrid virus there. And very few cases of person-to-person transmission have been reported outside Mexico. Outside Mexico, the cases have been milder than the seasonal flu that kills tens of thousands of elderly folk every year.

SEE THE UPDATED PRECAUTIONS/TREATMENT.

tally for confirmed American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections are as follows:  world- 17 countries-  714 cases (up from 265 in  3 days- out of >4700  suspected probable cases); Mexico 443; USA in 3days doubled from 64 to 162; UK  15, Canada-13 to 55, Spain 4 now 15; Germany  6, New Zealand-4, Israel-3, Costa Rica-2, France 2,  one  each Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   S Korea  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland.       Africa O.

(“Confirmed” is where the specific virus has been isolated.)

25 other countries have suspect cases.

17 Deaths associated with  swine flu have been reported only   in Mexicans – but no autopsy results yet reported to confirm whether swine flu has actually caused a single death. . .

This recalls the experience in the 1918 H1N1 Spanish flu  epidemic that deaths were due to superinfection with strep pneumonia- which is easily treated with antibiotics, although antibiotic resistance may now be high in countries  where antibiotics are freely available and overused.

There have been no more deaths or serious cases related to this American hybrid flu virus reported- but more tests are awaited to see if the deaths in Mexicans could be related to eg a different H1N1 virus, or to strep pneumonia that speculatively accounted for most of the  1918 flu epidemic deaths.

update 1st May GMT 17hoo: the identifying name of this virus is a problem: the first case  was in USA, not Mexico. But the brunt, and all deaths, have been in Mexicans. The virus is a mix of human, bird and swine genetic material- but this hybrid  hasn’t been found in swine yet. There have been lots of type A H1N1 viruses – and worse- around the past century.

so the handle of American  hybrid  flu is the most appropriate.

The reference labs are swamped with backlog of  samples from suspect cases, so the number of confirmed cases and countries will rise- but the number of new suspects seems to be leveling off- with no new serious cases reported from Mexico, and still none serious  anywhere else in the world. There is no sign of a pandemic.

But the news bulletins say nothing about the 2500 cholera deaths in 40 000 cases in Zimbabwe..

Apart from probable cases, the  tally for confirmed swine flu infections are as follows:  world- 17 countries-  533 cases(up from 265 in  2days- out of >4400  suspected probable cases); Mexico 312; USA in 48hrs doubled from 64 to 141; Canada-13 to 35, Spain 4 now 13; UK  11, Germany  4, New Zealand-4, Costa Rica-2, Israel-2,  one  each Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   S Korea  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland, China    ..  South Africa O.

13 confirmed  Mexican  deaths reported  related  to the swine virus – but without autopsies, not  proven that they were due to the swine flu. Other nationals no deaths.

Except in Mexicans, nothing more than average flu symptoms have been reported in confirmed  or probable cases.  So the mystery remains: why have only Mexicans died with this virus?   Deaths  cannot be  from the swine virus alone if no-one but  Mexicans have died from it.

And until autopsy details are released from Mexico confirming that the “confirmed cases” died from overwhelming swine flu, there is no confirmation that this swine flu outbreak is even virulent.

But already the outbreak has become a multibillion dollar windfall for USA between antiviral, vaccine and screening kits.. and a costly disaster for airlines due to the media hype. So far there is no indication to start mass-producing vaccine that will only be available months hence, when the new virus is likely to have greatly changed it’s genetics by then.

Since the outbreak did not start in Mexico but in USA, and is a hybrid avian+ swine+human virus, the least confusing is to stick with the name swine flu- there are worse earlier H1N1 viruses around the world.

update 30 April 17h00 GMT: at midday GMT there  were apparently 108 confirmed swine flu cases reported in the USA- up from 64 +- 36hrs before.

update 30 April 07h00 GMT “The UN’s World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the alert over swine influenza to level five – one short of a pandemic. A phase five alert means human-to-human transmission in at least two countries.”  Only 8 of of the   168 confirmed cases of swine flu have died in Mexico.

Independent on line an hour ago says two  suspect cases have been reported  locally, in Gauteng and West Cape. But so far there has not been a single case of serious illness in  let alone danger for a  non-Mexican in or coming out of Mexico, nor in  anyone who has been in contact with travelers from Mexico. So there is no justification  for the media hysteria, nor for the risky costly American antiviral drugs. All suspect cases so far (other than in Mexicans)  have been average mild flu – and very few cases have been confirmed with the virus even  in Mexico. Many cases of our regular flu this season have been worse than confirmed swine flu cases in non-Mexicans .

So there is nowhere near a pandemic on the horizon- just a lucrative scare for media, for Disease Agencies like the CDC and WHO, American Authorities and the Disease Industry- laboratories and (American) Drug and vaccine and H1N1 screening kit  companies, and pharmacists!.

update 29 April 21.30 GMT: 10 US states have now reported 121  suspect swine virus cases including 1 death in Texas, a visiting toddler from Mexico. Total 2917 suspect cases worldwide .  120 deaths  in Mexicans (few have yet been confirmed as due to swine H1N1)  with 168 cases confirmed swine H1N1 cases out of >2700 suspected cases. . The WHO tally for confirmed infections are as follows: US-64, Canada-13, Britain-5, Spain-4, Germany-3, New Zealand-3, Costa Rica-2, Israel-2, and Austria-1.. none yet in RSA or Australia or Asia or Africa.

update 29  April 07h34 GMT so far good  news-  just on 2000 cases reported from Mexico- but no further deaths there, and no serious cases anywhere else in the world. They are looking frantically for an alternative reason for the deaths – 152 so far reported ,  but few as yet confirmed swine virus –  in Mexicans.

updated 28 April 2009 15h20 GMT. The USA and then WHO  today declared Swine flu  a level 4 health emergency, a pandemic.  See the up-to-the minute report .. it has spread around the world in 2 months.

But so far – unlike in previous flu epidemics-  there are no reports of serious illness eg pneumonia, encephalitis, carditis,  collapse or deaths outside Mexico, not even on the latest Australian or CDC websites.

Why is this swine H1N1 virus affecting especially those between the ages of ~20 – 50yrs?

50years  from 2009= 1959. So the last related outbreak must have been before that time- to give us oldies immune memory protection: perhaps we acquired some  genetic  immune resistance from our parents who survived the 1918 ( also H1N1 swine virus ) flu pandemic (my father was a warden in that epidemic- which killed one of his 11 siblings; his parents, and my grandmother’s parents, had survived the perilous journey out of Russia in the early 1880s, likely after surviving  the great flu epidemic of 1857-9).

But this doesn’t explain why the current outbreak also spares those under 20years.

But we peak in the mid-20s, that’s when all systems start aging.. . and in first-world communities, most are attending group educational institutes if not living carefree for most of those youth years, possibly enhancing group immunity, and before the real stresses of work and kids and smoking and alcohol  hit us…

However, it is  futile to speculate on the affected agebracket since virtually all cases originate in Mexico, where diet, ecology  and lifestyle must be radically different from the other countries whose citizens have been affected.

Why are deaths occurring only in Mexicans? especially when no trace of swine flu has been detected on the piggeries there?

is it Hispanic genes making them more susceptible?

is it an as-yet unidentified bug that is unmasked by/ coincidental to the mild flu contagion that tourists are carrying out?

is it a local acute or chronic toxin that the Mexicans have been exposed to that makes them more vulnerable to this swine flu?

The fact that in Mexico it is mainly the 25-45yr olds who have been affected points especially to workplace exposure? what is the smoking, drug usage, diet, vocational and gender spread of the victims? The first confirmed case of swine flu occurred in California days before the first reported case in Mexico.

Shades of Jose Samargo’s brilliant 1995 novel Blindness, in which an unidentified contagion in an unnamed country inflicts white blindness on almost everyone – and no-one is ever referred to by name.  Shades of New World and Olde World  peoples 500 years ago who were decimated when previously unknown infections scythed through them, brought in by immune humans or eg rodents. Shades of the carnage of AIDS in subSaharan Africa but no-where else, about which conspiracy theories circulate.

PRECAUTIONS against both ‘flu and colds: see the list.

No swine flu cases have yet been reported from  Africa; but with pandemic TB, AIDS, cholera etc, and winter biting hard this month to herald the usual bad flu season, it will be harder to distinguish acute swine flu from other potential  flu/ common cold infections.

Take this list and go ask you local infectious disease specialist, as well as your health care provider-  but above all, take the simple preventative nonprescription  steps listed .. .

So far the most deaths have been reported in  Mexicans ( apparently <2% of those infected – compared to the global estimated deathrate of  2.5% in 1918)  – and only 11  (so far) in visitors with flu returning home  from Mexico ie 0.3%. So this may turn out to be another profitable false alarm for USA Big Pharma to mass-sell antivirals and imminent specific vaccines- as apparently happened after the SARS scare a few years ago, which fortunately  never became the predicted  fatal global  pandemic..

help-line ph +0027836299160.

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ndb