Tag Archives: influenza

LUGOL’S IODINE THE QUINTESSENTIAL SUPPLEMENT: against all diseases including cancer; & infections from fungi & protozoa to TB & HIV:

update 7 November 2015: comments & feedback please.
Orthoiodosupplementation in a Primary Care Practice Jorge D. Flechas, M.D. its undated but the latest ref is 2004..
but informative 2014 iodine update video by Dr Jorge Flechas:
some points: “why women have so many more thyroid problems eg estrogen blocks iodine; whereas ovary hot nodules may cause thyrotoxicosis from secreting T2.  Iodine alerts the brain, so dont take at night! give no more than ~12mg/d ie 2 drops 15% in pregnancy, it stimulates the baby!
“Iodine ie I2 diffuses into cells whereas iodide need to be transported in; babies lack the symporter Iodide transporter, so babies need iodine not iodide.
ie thyroid, ovary and WBCs can make thyroxine- but preferably  they mop up low iodine intake. Thyroid supplements doesnt provide enough iodine for needs elsewhere .
” Millions of women in Japan and Korea on their marine diet used to normally ingest ~13.5mg iodine a day, producing very low neonate problem rates in pregnancy and with IQ far higher than average.
“in the west, Iodine has been taken out of bread and milk, and salt intake cut – associated with increased rate of ADD in USA 500% and more cancer thyroid, breast, ovaries, endomet, cretinism, goitre .. – as iodine intake and output in USA has been halved by admin policy…
the kidneys excrete excess ingested iodine, so avoiding overdose from high iodine intake.

“ie if sufficiency, a 50mg iodine load will excrete >90% . so the spot test for low iodine excretion, and 24 hr high iodine excretion, reflect defective sodium symporter problem. This corrects with ongoing iodine supplement. 80% of vegans in USA are iodine deficient due to skipping seaweed for iodine! Asians eat seaweed in everything.. the body can hold 1.5gms iodine; 50mg in the thyroid, 20% in the skin, 30% in muscles…
– if depleted of iodine, we cant sweat or use our muscles (fibromyalgia), brains, or control the breasts or ovaries.. .. just add ATP cofactor ie incl vits B2 & B3 to iodine…
“Bread & esp cooldrink’ iodine (eg Mountain Dew) has been replaced by bromine, which causes schizoid behaviour… .. Iodine reverses the immortality of cancer cells.
” 3000mg/d ester C , and highdose iodine, and B2+B3 , reverse the iodine symporter block, & abolish the fibromyalgia in 80% of sufferers. .

This Flechas review is encouraging for repletion with Lugol’s 50 to 100mg iodine /day ie 6 to 12 drops 15%; after perhaps a precautionary skin test dose for allergy.
especially for protecting breasts, cancer, diabetics, obesity, heart disease, immune, memory and stroke problems.. .

It does seem that as with vits C and D3, iodine has a minimal RDA as far as basic prevention goes ie ~0.15mg – 1mg/d for avoiding cretinism (cf scurvy with >10mg/d vit C, or frank rickets with 400iu/d vit D3) ; and at the other end of the spectrum ie treating severe disease, grams a day of iodine and vit C, and vit D3 >50 000iu ie >1mg/day..

Then longterm maintenance with eg ~12 mg iodine a day ie 2drops/d 15% Lugols,  cf 1 to 3 gm a day vit C, vit D3 ~7000iu ~ 0.2mg/day… .

perhaps the corollary may be that , (as with vit D3 eg 2million ie ~ 50mg), a massive accidental load dose eg 2gms iodine- 20ml 15% Lugols- (which apparently bypasses the detox reaction at lower ie buildup dose, and incidentally provides 1gm potassium) may be both harmless and will reload for who knows how many years- presumably provided one takes a good magnesium and selenium ie realfood Banting diet .

To test tolerance, and try to reverse my familial irreversible atrial fibrillation, I have built up my Lugols’ dose  so far  to 15% 1 to 2 tsp a day ie 4 to 8ml, ~800mg combined (I + I2) iodine with 400mg potassium K  a day;
whereas a load dose vit D3 eg 0.6 to a million units (6-10gms of standard max strength 100 cwt powder – with a good magnesium and vit K2 diet as in realfood Banting) will replete safely and harmlessly for less than a year.
Its a pity the simple IODINE urine test is- unlike the skin patch test duration- so tediously long and costly (and both can occasionally mislead),
whereas the blood  vit D calcium-creat levels are quick to take but costly  tests.. .

But in those who can afford them , the tests are essential to validate the clinical results we get with iodine and vit D3 .

update 27 Sept 2015

see prev Healthspanlife.wordpress.com ie May 2014 update.

quotes from authorities are in italics: please feed back on errors and experience

Massive iodine deficiency is  as universal worldwide (compared to 50 years ago) as are
*deficiencies of:                                                                                                ..vitamin C (except those who live on fresh fruit and veg);
..vitamin D (except those who work outdoors in sunny climes);
..magnesium; and
..natural saturated fats in all except keen carnivores;
..and increasing deficiency of other vitamins in the food chain, forced on the public by government-sponsored industries and “health authorities” for 50 years now;
*and unnecessary dangerous food-chain toxins ( refined carbohydrates; calcium/bromine/ fluorine/salt, aluminium, mercury supplements, synthetics eg transfats, pesticides eg glyphos Roundup, GMO foodstuffs, antibiotics ; and steroids). .

But with seafood almost wiped out by greed and pollution, and increasing global nuclear pollution, and failure by food producers to supplement   iodine never mind vit D and magnesium in the depleted food chain,

iodine repletion with vigorous Lugols iodine (with its consort selenium) is even more of a priority than concomitant vitamin D (with its consort vit K2) and magnesium supplementation, and vitamin C, plus a broad balanced other score A to Z multisupplement ..

So the dangerous scaremongering myths need to be debunked about the “dangers” of iodine at over a mg a day – when the safe general therapeutic dose is not just ~12mg/d but up to 100mg/d for longterm prevention, and over a gm/d for major diseases; ie >10 000 x the RDA. The US recommended adult dose of iodine for nuclear exposure is about 120mg, without any mention of remotest risk of toxicity.

This 1000 x order of magnitude with iodine is like
*the almost 10 000x margin between minimalistic vitamin C 10mg/d dose (RDA now 60mg/d) to avoid scurvy, up to >3v-7gm a day to treat infections, and >30 gm/day (intravenously, or buffered orally) to treat cancer;

*and vitamin D3 (RDA now up to ~800iu/d) up to 250 x more eg from 200iu /d to prevent rickets vs 50 000iu/d to treat some serious diseases, vs 2million iu single doses and 150 000iu/d for decades that have no documentable toxic effects in adults.
Infants obviously need proportionate dosing of all, not left to depend on mother’s milk when she has received no more than the usual prenatal supp folate and iron.. . .

The heaviest essential metal iodine is perhaps the most rare essential mineral – Wiki: “Iodine is rare in the Solar System and Earth’s crust (47th/60th in abundance):”- hence iodine deficiency is universal – especially now it has become fashionable in our lifetime to stop adding iodine to foodstuffs; and instead food manufacturers pump in toxic halides like bromine and fluoride (like dangerous mercury and aluminium in vaccines, aluminium in antacids) that (unlike chlorine,  iodine and refined sugars) have no essential biological need and benefit , only risks;

and recognition that commercial pure white runny salt NaCl – overdosing chlorine- is adverse because of worsening hypertension with aging and fast foods, instead of encouraging seasalt. .
The myths have been debunked that
*(unlike our essential blood chlorine in moderation), either fluorine or bromine are essential trace element halogens, any more than commercial cane sugar or fructose are biologically essential in our diet;

*and the Wolff-Chaikoff Effect myths (that iodine is toxic at much more than a mg a day) debunked by Abraham & Brownstein’s  review of scientific evidence the past century  including  Wartofsky, et al   1970  that we overdose with iodine at only 20 x the RDA (0.15mg/d) ie over a mg/ day,

*and the myth that only potass KI /sodium NaI iodides should be supplemented. The most proven iodine is in Lugols iodide providing the balance between  KI and free I2.

*Another commercially driven myth is that blood thyroid hormone levels are adequate to diagnose biologically significant iodine sufficiency, and commercial thyroxine to treat patients– the commercial hormones dont address, may worsen the serious iodine deficiency throughout the body that contributes hugely to acute and chronic, common and rare diseases

Studies of traditional Japanese after WW2 showed that their far better cancer-, cardiovascular,- thyroid health (before they emigrated to America, or took up Western diet) was attributable especially to the kelp ie iodine intake in their then-safe seafood diet, giving them an average iodine intake of about 12 mg/day- at least 100 times the current American imposed RDA of 0.15mg/d. But who can trust kelp, seafood from the poisoned oceans and rivers any more?

I recently took for a day each approx 20drops Lugols 2% pd in water ie iodine ~9mg a day; then 15% 4 drops ie 30mg/d …then up to , then 10drops ~70mg/d to test for detox reaction. I carry on with ~50mg/d,  as  many patients take it . I suppose my lack of detox reaction is not surprising since I have been detoxing for years on about 6 gm a day of a 50 -supp -multiblend( half vit C).- but no more than a mg/d of potass iodide. I  find physical and mental stamina better, no longer have  angina from stress or walking fast- which I could not do a fortnight before due to angina and fatigue. . .

One shudders to think of the billions of people – especially kids- who are dull, not achieving their full potential for lack of iodine, either because health professionals dont think we need more, or because patients are dismissed as euthyroid based on the usual thyroid lab hormone tests (which ignore iodine deficiency/excess in the majority who dont fall clearly in the over-or underactive blood hormone range).

Conventional western medicine apparently no longer considers or measures iodine deficiency, forgetting that iodine is the primary essential deficient mineral (along with magnesium, selenium, sulphur, phosphate; and iron in kids and reproductive women) for all systems in the body, not just for thyroid hormone levels- which dont reflect iodine security anywhere outside thyroid hormone production by the thyroid. .

Iodine is needed in microgram mcg amounts for the thyroid, milligram mg amounts for breast and other tissues, and therapeutically as anticancer in gram amounts.[2]- Dr. David Miller
The theoretical iodine lethal LD50 for humans ie 1/10th of rodent dose is about 2 gm / kg, eg 6gm for a newborn baby, 140gm for an adult… a bottle of 20ml 2% Lugols in water contains 400mg, a 100ml bottle of 15% in water contains 15gm iodine(ie a 20ml bottle 3g) ie a harmless dose except corrosive if swallowed neat,.

Hence retailers if at all dispense Lugols 2%; we dont lightly prescribe/dispense 15% Lugols except for topical massage. And for cancer and we stick to 20ml dropper bottles.
not even Dischem and Clicks at Cavendish stock Lugols- only 2% iodine tinct IN ALCOHOL ie strictly for burning scratches… so no retailer should sell 100ml of any Lugols prep, only 20ml 2% Lugols, as is enforced in USA. It is indeed apparently regulated in the same way here., ‘tho’ the SA Medicines formulary doesnt mention that (recommends it only preop for eg thyroid storm), nor the multidisease benefits of Lugols including on the brain, wounds, infections, cardiac, vascular, cancer lungs etc;

nor the usual DETOXIFICATION REACTIONS as heavy metals are mobilized, for which (like eg metformin) the Lugol’s dose must be started low and titrated to tolerance with lots of fluids including magnesium, seasalt, selenium , vits B. eg Brief symptoms from heavy metal detox include “headaches, agitation, palpitations, nervousness, the jitters or irritated thyroid symptoms; pimples; skin rashes; fatigue, muscle aches, fever, diarrhea, worsen sinus/asthma, and brain fog. “. http://nourishingplot.com/2014/08/30/detoxing-fluoride-bromine-and-chlorine-naturally/ , http://www.iodine-resource.com/lugols-iodine.html ,   http://www.tiredthyroid.com/blog/2013/07/15/iodine-protocol-asthma-hives-sulfite-sensitivities/ and http://drsircus.com/medicine/iodine/iodine-and-detoxification. If these heavy metal detox reactions occur, stop the Lugols a few days, increase the detox remedies, then resume Lugols at a lower dose that you dont react to.
Threads   indicate that detox problems go away once iodine dose exceeds 50mg/d- especially if taken with a multisupp incl vit C, magnes , BCo, & selenium; and plenty of seasalt in water. (the only one of these not in a multisupplement AntiAging blend is salt).

In perspectivethe thyroid holds 50 milligrams of iodine, the breasts hold 200 milligrams, the skin holds 400 milligrams of iodine, and the whole body holds 2,000 milligrams, and possibly much more. Iodine is found and used in every hormonal receptor in the body. in 1911, 900 milligrams 0.9gm/day!) were considered usual and safe dosage. At 6 grams 6,000 milligrams/day!), iodine has been used to cure syphilis, skin lesions, and chronic lung disease. Iodine makes us smarter, helps with mental functioning. Low iodine is associated with low IQ’s with a difference of up to 13.5 points in children; but iodine deficiency is also associated with mental functioning in adults, because iodine not only chelates lead, but, according to Dr. Jorge Flechas, iodine prevents lead from lodging in the body in the first place. Low thyroid function decreases brain circulation, which slows intellectual function. low thyroid function is associated with cognitive impairment, memory loss, depression, slowness of mind, anxiety, suicidal tendencies, and a variety of psychiatric disorders. Bleichrod’s meta-analysis of 17 studies showed iodine sufficiency increases IQ by 13.5 points in children. Iodine prevents heart disease. Iodine is needed with the use of cordless phones, cell phones and now smart meters to prevent hypothyroidism. Iodine decreases insulin needs in diabetics.

IODINE ALLERGY? The risk of iodine allergy is quite low – Drs. Abraham and Brownstein were only able to identify 3 of 4,000 people who had a negative response to the iodine. People do not become allergic to iodine per se, but people react to the displacement of bound heavy metals; and can become allergic to protein-bound iodine as is found in shellfish or to the binding agents, excipients, fillers, preservatives and/or synthetics (rather than the bioavailable form of iodine itself) commonly found in tablets, capsules, and even liquids. Actually, iodine can help eliminate food allergies according to Dr. Derry.
But dont take Lugols at the same time as vit C, which neutralizes the antimicrobial effects of Lugols. so take them at opposite ends of the day.

and because iodine attacks only pathogens and abnormal cells, not our good probiotic biome or healthy cells, it has none of the risks of pesticides , antibiotics, antivirals, radiotherapy, chemotherapy etc.

despite Dr Jean Lugol having published his landmark 1829 work on his iodine complex  ie ~185 years ago, there is predictably little research on it published on Pubmed, for the obvious reason that Big Pharma and the Disease Industry and governments wont fund research on such a cheap cure, which would greatly increase survival, but in the short term reduce illness and thus need for health industry workers, hospital beds, pharmacies and new drugs.
There are apparently only three clinically relevant LUGOL’s papers listed on Pubmed ie in the past 50 years:-

from India 2012 Consul ea – confirming that painting the cervix with Lugols (the Schiller test ) and vinegar is as effective as Pap smear for screening; thus combined, the two simple cancer diagnostic paints make up for Lugols iodine for cervix cancer being only about 85% sensitive and specific ie not as reliable alone as a costly lab Pap smear…
Greece 2007 Theodoropoulou ea  confirming that preoperative Lugol’s iodine 80mg/d for 15 days in euthyroid people was accompanied by increased intrathyroid total iodine but no changes in intrathyroid hormone HI or demonstrable increases of serum T4 and T3 were observed. It is hypothesized that the maintenance of normal intrathyroidal HI is the result of the combined inhibitory effect of iodine on thyroid hormone synthesis and on the release of T4 and T3 from the thyroid.
Italy 1986 Marani ea  –Iodine is therapeutic in various pathologies where immunity plays a dominant role, eg it facilitates cure in tuberculosis, lepromatous, syphilitic and mycotic incl sporotrichosis lesions . This effect does not depend on iodine’s action on the micro-organism responsible, but on host immune boosting. . Iodine may also be used in Panniculitis, in erythema nodosum, in nodular vasculitis, erythema multiforme etc. . To establish relationship between dietary iodine and immune response, 607 infants in an area of endemic goitre were studied: 215 were given Lugol solution (2 drops- presumably 20mg? a week for about 8 months ; and 392 not. Immune response was assessed by the skin test tetanus toxoid (in the U.S. 80% of paediatric cases aged 2-10 years old were positive). A significant difference was noted in the average diameter of the infiltrations after the tetanus toxoid skin test in the two groups considered (P less than 0.001). The results indicate that an adequate iodine intake is necessary for normal retarded immune response – a fact that the disease industry and Big Pharma blatantly ignore. . . (Iodine does not have the adverse effect of antibiotics on our gut biome, or causing antibiotic-resistant pathogens)

But there are dozens of scientific Lugol’s studies not referenced by Pubmed:

The End of Antibiotics and the Rise of Iodine as an Effective Alternative 2008 Mark Sircus

Iodine and viral infection?
David Derry, MD, PhD Thyroid Science 2009 Iodine: the Forgotten Weapon Against Influenza Viruses

Mamo & Naissides International Journal of Infectious Diseases (2005) from Australia show Iodine Could be effective in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS-associated opportunistic infections. as it is in rodents and cats .

Inactivation of human immunodeficiency virus by iodine-releasing products Harbison & Hammer Boston, Massachusetts 1989  showed that “povidine-iodine completely inactivated HIV at concentrations of greater than or equal to 0.5% ie is highly effective at killing HIV.
Betadine is simply “a stable complex of povidone and elemental iodine, contains 9.0% to 12.0% available iodine ie 90-120mg/ml .. Free iodine slowly liberated from the povidone-iodine PVPI solution kills microbe (but not healthy mammalian) cells through iodination of lipids and oxidation of cytoplasmic and membrane compounds, thus exhibits a broad range of microbicidal activity against bacteria fungi protozoa and viruses. Slow release of iodine from the PVPI complex in solution minimizes iodine toxicity towards mammal cells.” This compares exactly with a similar iodine complex  15% Lugols which contains about 10% ie 100mg iodine /ml water .. at far lower cost than but identical safety and efficacy to the patented Betadine – a modern designer marketable patented crib of Lugol’s .. …

see also


Lugols for animal thyrotoxicosis

and IODINE, A CRITICAL NUTRIENT 2014 http://drlwilson.com/Articles/IODINE.htm


Iodine: Its Role In Health and Disease: New Exciting Concepts Michael B. Schachter, M.D. 2007:   Guy Abraham MD, former professor of obsts gyne & endocrinology at UCLA School of Medicine, has written papers about iodine that drastically changed my thinking about its role in health and the prevention and treatment of disease. I had been impressed by Dr. Abraham’s previous work, which showed that vitamin B6 and magnesium could be very helpful to women with premenstrual syndrome (PMS) and was eager to learn what he had to say about iodine. Through a series of articles termed “The Iodine Project,” Dr. Abraham proposed that the optimal daily dose of iodine for a WELL person is approximately 12.5 mg, which is 100 times the RDA of 0.125 mg, ie that the current prevailing medical opinion that more than 2 mg a day of iodine is toxic is wrong. He traces the source of this major blunder to a scientific experiment on rats that was published in 1948 by Drs. Wolff and Chaikoff, which erroneously concluded that iodine inhibits the thyroid gland at doses of about 20 times the recommended daily allowance (RDA) for iodine. This conclusion was later generalized to humans and can be found in medical textbooks, including endocrinology and nutrition textbooks. Guy Abraham wrote in 2005: In hypertension, iodine sufficiency resulted in normalization of blood pressure without medications; as reported by other physicians using this program. Best results were achieved when orthoiodosupplementation was combined with a complete nutritional program emphasizing magnesium instead of calcium. Obesity increases the requirement for iodine and up to 100 mg elemental iodine/day may be required to achieve and maintain sufficiency. Increased demand for iodine occurs with excessive amounts of goitrogens from the diet and lifestyle. eg, smoking increases serum thiocyanate levels, interfering with the sodium/iodide supporter function. Low thyroid iodine is associated with thyroid hyperplasia and cancer. Could thyroid hormones cause the same iodine depletion in breast tissue? The prevalence of breast cancer is higher in women on thyroid hormones. Medical iodophobia resulted in removal of iodate from bread 20 years ago, replacing it with the goitrogen bromate- which associated with increased obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, thyroid and breast cancer. Recent reports show association between low iodine intake in women during pregnancy and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in their offspring. The most plausible explanation is a decreased sensitivity of the nuclear thyroid hormone receptor to thyroid hormones. We previously reported evidence for improved receptor response to thyroid hormones following iodosupplementation. Therefore, iodine is not only necessary for the synthesis of thyroid hormones but also for their effect on target cells. This effect is probably due to iodination of the thyroid hormone receptor. The essential element iodine, which is the inorganic, non-radioactive forms, deserves more attention from researchers and clinicians. It maybe the missing link in patients currently resistant to conventional hormonal therapy.
and see
re adding enough selenium, chromium, vit C, Magnesium, Vitamin B2/3

Until 2007, in the United States, Lugol’s solution was unregulated and available over the counter as a general reagent, an antiseptic, a preservative,[11] or as a medicament for human or veterinary application .

However, effective August 1, 2007, the DEA now regulates Lugol’s solution (and, in fact, all iodine solutions containing greater than 2.2% iodine) as a List I precursor because it may potentially be used in the illicit production of methamphetamine.[12] However, transactions of up to one fluid ounce (30 ml) of Lugol’s solution are exempt from this regulation. When buying Lugol’s Solution on places like Amazon, most sellers fail to indicate the DEA tracking requirement. On the other hand Lugol’s Iodine solution is available over the counter in Canada and Mexico.
Toxicity Because it contains free iodine, Lugol’s solution at 2% or 5% concentration without dilution is irritating and destructive to mucosa, such as the lining of the esophagus and stomach.
Doses of 10 mL of 5% solution have been reported to cause gastric lesions when used in endoscopy.[13] The LD50 for Iodine is 14,000 mg/kg [Rat] and 22,000 mg/kg [Mouse].[14]
Most guidelines accept that anything with an LD50 >2 g/kg (-5 g/kg in some countries) can be classed as having a low acute toxicity[citation needed] which classifies Iodine as having low toxicity. Potassium Iodide is not considered hazardous.[15

Iodine Dosages
Treatment of Influenza and other Diseases iodine-dosages 2009 “After testing over 500 patients, I found that 94.7% of my patients are deficient in inorganic iodine. Dr. David Brownstein In this chapter I will present different views and practices from present as well as from the long past when iodine was vastly more popular as a medicine than it is today. For whatever irrational reason, doctors and patients fear iodine thus en mass do not use to its fullest potential.
Humans tolerate large doses of iodine but the ultra high doses that were used many decades ago are not required to get the most out of iodine therapy. Just a little goes a long way, as the governmental iodized salt programs showed but this dosage level was only effective for Goiter and its avoidance. It actually takes very little iodine to prevent this disease but no one ever said that was the only purpose and need for iodine in the body. Today people are more deficient then ever before because our need for iodine has increased in direct proportion to our toxic burdens especially of other competing halogens. Read on at http://drsircus.com/medicine/iodine/iodine-dosages
see lugols_dosage_chart.  . But for obvious reasons stick to 2% till you know you tolerate and need much stronger drops.


neil.burman@gmail.com Cape Town, South Africa

CONSPIRACY OF SILENCE, DENIALISM?  THE FLARE AND CURE OF MERS?- MIDDLE-EAST SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY- RENAL SYNDROME SARRS  CORONAVIRUS  OUTBREAK; AND EBOLA?  : An Inconvenient truth?  human (sunshine-) vitamins C+D DEFICIENCY  syndrome facilitating  a benign virus spread from eg  camels  (or mosquitos) to middlemen eg camelmen  to human vit C/D deficient  contacts- in whom the infection becomes lethal ?.   Copyright reserved.  A narrative  diary journal since August 2013

ALWAYS READ IN CONCERT WITH the-semmelweis-reflex-vitamins-c-d3-avoid vitamin-denialism

and  diet-nutritional– vitamin risks-and-benefitS 

and VITAMIN D UPDATE:  https://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2015/06/16/vitamin-d-for-indoor-types-how-much-is-enough-toxic-especially-for-infants-acute-illness-icu-infections/

and THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF (PRO)HORMONES (MELATONIN, SOLTRIOL-VITAMIN D3 -NOT  VIT D2  – AND VITAMIN C ) AS HRT IN REDUCING ALL MAJOR DISEASE. Salute Dr Walter Stumpf the prophet of the day-night hormone twins  melatonin and soltriol.

What is the greater regional risk, when both Ebola and MERS have at least 40% fatality rate in the susceptible? although the desperately poverty-stricken in west Africa are far more vulnerable to ebola (from bat and common human transmission) than Saudis to MERS (from camel,  and seldom human transmission).

5 September 2015: with the Hajj only a fortnight away, the fresh MERS outbreak in KSA continues its upsurge, with the past week 34 cases  and 11 deaths ie still rising weekly rates. Compared to 16 cases and 7 deaths there in July, August had eight times more– 127 cases;  and 42 deaths ie 33% mortality. Worse, the human outbreak has spread from Riyadh all over the country except on the coast. .

What is even more puzzling is that the KSA now plans to pay out over a $billion ie  $133 300 compensation for  each of the >1200 people who have died there of  MERS . This is despite the fact that, as reported repeatedly on links below, their own scientists keep publicizing that residents there have severe vitamin D deficiency owing to the KSA culturally enforced sun exclusion ie coverup code especially for older adults. And that it costs no more than ~$5 a year for vitamin D3  for each person to take a harmless multidisease protective dose eg adults 50 000 iu every fortnight if not weekly ( as with any microbial after a loading therapeutic dose of eg 200 000  to 500 000iu  if indicated ), with which we get excellent protection  everywhere. Unlike their excellent doctors, KSA authorities dont publish a word of warning and prevention on their English websites  about the deficiency of vits C & D well shown in their urban population.

          26 August 2015 : while the MERS  outbreak in S Korea terminated weeks ago at 184 cases and 29 deaths- ie  16% mortality, with no cases reported anywhere else outside Saudi Arabia in the world, where there were only 129 cases and 32deaths; the latest score from Riyadh KSA is 1171 cases and 502 deaths ie 43 cases and 15 deaths the past week.

Yet a new statement from the KSA MOH this week makes no mention of the apparent chief risk factor for MERS in KSA – their observant  citizens’ profound deficiency of the sunshine vitamin D3  that their sharia sun-excluding apparel  promotes, and that their health professionals have stressed for years, and that is so easily corrected by lifesaving vitamin D3 supplement at negligible cost.  Only prisoners denied any sunshine and supplements have as bad vitamin D deficiency.

25 Aug 2015just a month before the 2015 Hajj, Saudi Arabia has announced  a fresh MERS epidemic this month – based exclusively in Riyadh: in July there were only 16 new cases  with 7deaths  (compared to June‘s 27/14) ie the rate fell to about 4 cases a week. But this August the rate has mushroomed  twelve-fold since July, from 4 to 22/wk,  to now ~48 cases alone the past week @ ~7/day – 72% men;  ie already this month  105 cases, 31 deaths;  ie the recent death-rate has strayed to 29%. .  One of today’s 6 deaths  was among the 8 new  cases   reported today.   Almost all the cases lately have apparently been reported from one Riyadh hospital  the King AbdulAziz center. so the reported totals from KSA  are  now 1165 cases and 498 deaths ie 43% deathrate; with critical cases/ deaths  mostly in the elderly. .

So is   more incidental MERS contamination  being detected by wider surveillance of well contacts? One can speculate whether the recent spurt, and  deathrate, in KSA are because of wider MERS surveillance of asymptomatic people; and the very old dying of usual causes? when  finding of the virus may be coincidental, not pathogenic? Does symptomatic stable indicate anything more than a common febrile URTI? The figures on the KSA Govt website are radically different from those on the FluTrackers.com site.

And VITAMIN D DEFICIENCY THERE?  a new paper in Med Hypotheses. 2015 Aug from KSA again highlights the Saudi scientific community plea not to ignore the disaster of  epidemic and so easily and cheaply remediable vitamin  deficiency there- at least 63% are moderate to severely vitamin D deficientNabi, Hobani ea Jazan University, KSA   ask:  Can we hypothesize a link? High prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and cancer in KSA  populations:      In spite of so much sunshine, about 83.6% of Saudis are deficient in the ‘sunshine vitamin’  D –  31.9% have severe, 32% have moderate and 19.7% have mild vitamin D deficiency (VDD).  Females are more severely vitamin D deficient. Apart from the genetic anti-vitamin D factor- darker skin color – various  manmade factors contributing to skin sunlight deficiency  and thus likely to epidemic viruses (and also  significantly shorter adult life expectancy compared to other opulent countries) include  housing designs, religious practices, lifestyle choices- which in ultra-conservative-run KSA  seem to be uniquely sun-exclusive, and rigorously enforced.

            27 June Update  while the outbreak has leveled off in KSA at 1039 cases with 460 deaths ie 44%,  – only 8 cases but 7  deaths the past fortnight-  the total in S Korea has mushroomed to 182 with 31 deaths ie mortality up to 17%.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         19 June 2015  South Korea reported  ‘its 24th death from the MERS virus and one new case, bringing to 166 the total number of confirmed cases since the first one was diagnosed on May 20′; with mortality  now up to 13% . ‘The number of people in quarantine has fallen 12 percent from the previous day to 5,930. Currently, 112 patients are in hospital for treatment and 30 others have been cured and released.   Thailand became the 27 th country (following S Korea and China)  to be infected with the respiratory virus, took 4 Days To Confirm first MERS Case- a 75-year-old businessman from Oman, Leading To Worries About Deadly Disease’s Spread.         India and Muslim countries gird themselves as risk escalates with Ramadan pilgrimage to the source- KSA Saudi Arabia- now in full swing.

As  especially in Muslim countries, and China, and South Africa, and all darkskinned people who shun the sun- as do all who use sunblockers,  prefer avoiding tanned wrinkled or darker skin or skin cancer- or those who work and live mostly indoors and with covered bodies, limbs and often faces-  Low vitamin D in yet another sunny country- Thailand  ; Jnl Clin  Translat Endocr March 2015 Siwamogsatham ea. Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency is also common in Thailand ( latitude between 5°30′ N and 20°30′ N) where adequate UVB exposure is available all year round. Chailurkit et al. [12] conducted the largest-scale examination of vitamin D status in Thai population,reported a 50% prevalence rate of vitamin D insufficiency & deficiency , defined as serum 25(OH)D level < 30 ng/mL  .  Life style and environmental factors are the major factors that determine vitamin D status.. Thai women are at risk likely due to sunscreen usage and sun avoidant behavior  to maintain a fair complexion. Living in urban areas  and with less leisure time  in the sunlight., ncreases the risk of vitamin D insufficiency due to increased pollution, which decreases the amount of UVB available for cutaneous vitamin D synthesis.  Furthermore, in Thailand dairy products are not fortified with vitamin D and very few vitamin D-rich foods are part of the Thai diet. Thus, dietary intake of vitamin D in Thai people is generally low.


     17June 2015 update: while a German who contracted MERS in the Middle East in February has now died of lung complications in Germany,    KSA Saudi Arabia reported 17 cases and 8 deaths in the past two weeks, similar to the rates in May; totals now 1035 with 458 deaths. Wiki puts the world totals  (26 countries including the Korean who visited China) at 1340 cases with ~530  ie 39%  deaths .

But originating from a single visitor to KSA,  South Korea has now recorded 162MERS cases- 6 cases a day since 20 May-    and 20deaths ie 12%. There a survey- Hong ea in Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 2014  – reported Association between vitamin D deficiency and tuberculosis  in S Korea, with healthy  controls having frank vit D deficiency ( mean 25OHvitD level 16 ng/ml) but 60% higher than in TB patients (mean 9.86ng/ml). The prevalence of severe vitamin D deficiency was higher in patients with TB (51.1%) than in controls ( P = 0.001). The median 25(OH)D level increased from 11.40 ng/ml (IQR 7.85-15.73) to 13.18 ng/ml  after treatment completion (P = 0.037). Presence of TB and history of TB were independently associated with severe vitamin D deficiency.”

Yet as is not available  in local  South African RSA   TB-HIV clinics with prevalent vitamin D deficiency,  there is still no reported policy of vitamin D supplementation apparently reported from S Korea (or KSA, or RSA) , despite (as in KSA and RSA) a study there 2 years ago  (from Jeong of Dept Paediatrics at CHA University, Seongnam SKorea 2013)  “Factors affecting the vitamin D status in South Korean children”  finding  ” prevalence of vitamin D deficiency (
(15-20 ng/mL) was 19.5%. Overall, the mean serum 25(OH)D levels was 22.9±9.9 ng/mL. They were the highest in them preschoolers (2-5 years, 24.4 ng/mL) and the lowest in the adolescents (11-16 years,15.9 ng/mL). In addition, they were significantly higher in summer as compared with winter. The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency was relatively higher in our series of children. It is imperative that the public policies be established to provide vitamin D supplementation for South Korean children.” 

 ONGOING GLOBAL DENIAL OF NEED FOR MICRONUTRIENT SUPPLEMENTS:   It seems that national authorities from the Americas  to Europe to Africa to the middle east to Asia,  including the medical industry,  continue to refuse to heed overwhelming evidence that vigorous micronutrient supplements are needed, available, lowcost, highly effective and safe  to prevent and treat epidemics like HIV-TB, flu, MERS and Ebola – especially when vaccines and antiviral drugs are without benefit, and when vitamin D deficiency is universal in clothed indoor-studying- and -working  peoples, especially the poor who cannot buy supplements by choice. . .

            6 June 2015 update: After a quiet April, KSA is now suffering  fresh jeopardy from  acute  midsummer flareup of MERS. But so is  the world with outbreak  of MERS in Korea and China, while thousands of refugees from tribal wars in  the middle east and North and even South  Africa cause more concern for spread of such plagues.

As the Middle East  girds itself against mounting Islamic warfare in the region, after only a handful of MERS cases in April- 8 cases and 6 deaths- KSA has in May  seen 33 cases with  >50% fatality – 18 deaths; and already in June the case rate has doubled from April’s  1 a day  to May – June’s 2 cases a day, giving cumulative totals there  to 6 June of 1026 MERS cases and 450 deaths..

By contrast, in   South Korea   only  5 deaths (8% mortality) have been reported in 84 cases so far the past 16 days – including a Korean who got to China. That chillingly brings the outbreak firmly onto the Asian mainland.  South Korea now passes the UAE as the second biggest outbreak country after the KSA- but like the UAE and elsewhere, a far lower deathrate, perhaps simply because of initial contact tracking, since the outbreak has been totally in hospitals.

It seems that  Vitamin D deficiency may be as much the cause of MERS susceptibility in South Korea as in KSA?  A 2008 Korean University survey shows that despite its temperate latitude of  ~35degrees, and humidity, South Korea had widespread vitamin D deficiency even in its young people: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels and the prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency defined as serum 25(OH)D level of less than 20 ng/ml. Vitamin D insufficiency was found in 47.3% of males and 64.5% of females, whereas only 13.2% of male and 6.7% of female population had a serum 25(OH)D level of greater than 30 ng/ml. Vitamin D insufficiency was most prevalent in the age of 20-29, with a rate of 65.0% in males and 79.9% in females, and least prevalent in the age of 60-69 in males and 50-59 in females. Those who work usually indoors were more predisposed to vitamin D insufficiency. In the adult population, predictors for vitamin D insufficiency included young age groups, spring and winter seasons, living in an urban area, and indoor occupations.  CONCLUSIONS:Vitamin D insufficiency is very common, and it is now a greater threat to the younger generation in Korea. Current recommendations for vitamin D intakes for Koreans are inadequate, especially for the youth. In 2012 they reported “We found that vitamin D insufficiency or deficiency is a very common health problem in Korean adolescents, particularly in girls, and that serum 25(OH)D levels are inversely associated with insulin resistance and lipid profiles. These results suggest that more time spent in outdoor activity for sunlight exposure and higher vitamin D intake may be needed in younger adolescents in South Korea”

In a recent university study by  Han Seok Choi  on vit D deficiency in S Korea- perhaps the worst measured vit D deficient country  in the world? – he refers to  Autier ea in Lyon France in JCEM 2012 – “The average increase in (in adult) serum25(OH)D   was 0.78 ng/ml per microgram of vitamin D3  supplement (40IU ) per day”. ie the average ~20ng/ml vit D level in so many deficient adults  will increase by only ~8ng/ml for every 400iu vit D in an average daily “RDA” multi-supplement; to raise their level to a more efficient 60ng/ml requires at least ~2000iu/day or 60 000iu per month; and if diseased, to raise to a more vigorous 90ng/ml requires at least ~3000iu/d . But as others have reported, higher dose oral vitamin D3 gives a less vigorous response eg 10ng/ml rise per 1000iu/day; eg  my 25OHvit D level is about 90ng/ml on about 9000iu vit D3 supplement a day (half-life estimated 2 weeks to 2 months  in Modulation of the Immune Response to Respiratory Viruses by Vitamin D) and plenty of fat eg an average egg, cheese and doublecream yoghurt etc  daily ; with no rise in my corrected serum calcium, and no visible calcification on my xray chest or echocardiogram  . .Autier ea wrote “76 trials published from 1984 to  2011 included 6207 subjects  tested supplement doses ranging from 5 to 250 μg/d  ie 200 to 10 000iu/d(median, 20 μg/d).  In the absence of concomitant use of calcium supplements,  average increase in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations was 0.78 ng/ml (1.95 nmol/liter) per microgram ie 40iu of vitamin D3 supplement per day. Compared to the vitamin D3, the vitamin D2 was associated with significantly lower increases (P = 0.03). Concomitant use of calcium supplementation and high 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration at baseline was nonsignificantly associated with lower increases in 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations.

         “Vitamin D Deficiency Around the World   2015   Even the Indian Medical Association recently organized continuing medical education to address the rise of vitamin D deficiency in their sun-soaked nation. Endocrinologist Dr. Sanjay Badada told Times of India:1   Vitamin D deficiency is rapidly gaining epidemic proportions yet it is the most under-diagnosed and under-treated nutritional deficiency in the world.         In our experience, 40 percent to 50 percent patients get diagnosed with Vitamin D deficiency as a part of their normal routine tests with no apparent symptoms.    On the other hand, 80 percent to 90 percent of patients who come in with musculoskeletal complaints such as back pains, unexplained muscle pains, or general fatigue suffer from Vitamin D deficiency.     Vitamin D was also discussed at the 2015 European Congress of Endocrinology. One talk2 addressed the “Mediterranean paradox,” as researchers have tried to understand why as many as 90 percent of pregnant mothers (and their newborns) in the sunny Mediterranean region are deficient in vitamin D.      A systematic review looking at 15 studies concluded that predictors of low maternal vitamin D concentration included dark skin and sartorial habits—meaning the manner in which they dress, or in this case, being too covered up, preventing sun exposure on bare skin.     Moreover, vitamin D supplementation was very low, and few pregnant women met the recommended daily intake (RDI) of calcium and vitamin D.”

12 April 2015 update: KSA has now reported 977 cases with 426 deaths ie 43% deathrate. Ignoring the past 12 days (2 cases, 4 deaths),  the March rate was 1.9 cases per day with  49% deathrate; in Feb it was 3/day with only 42% deathrate. so while the reported caserate is down by a third, the fatality ie deathrate is up almost 20%. The Wiki  MERS report is now a month  out of date, with climbing deathrate.

Perhaps the lull in new MERS case detection/reporting  is merely a result of that region (like the war-torn Central Africa – never mind the ebola epidemic-)  being in the middle of an ethnic Muslim religious  war – genocide-  by fanatical  jihadists on both more “liberal” Islamists and other religions. This  increasingly threatens to overthrow the 20thC-European-created hereditary tribal governments of the desert/camel/oilfield region- KSA, Yemen,   Jordan, the Gulf States etc, as happened in Egypt; not to speak of the power vacuum instability  created in Iraq and Libya by more recent Western elimination of virtual dictators  without ability to ensure democratic succession there any more than in Egypt, Afghanistan or Pakistan; and the oppressive dictatorships that prevail  in Iran and Syria..

24 March 2015    KSA reports 964 cases   and    419 deaths ie  only 6cases and 3 deaths the past week. The Ebola outbreak meanwhile simmers down in W Africa in its anniversary week. . New reports from North America again highlight the importance of optimizing vigorous vitamin D3 dose and blood levels.

15 March 2015  MERS   so far this March, in KSA already  37 cases  , ie 17 a week,   21 deaths.  This brings the reported case  KSA total to 957 cases, 416 deaths; but deathrate the past 4 weeks to ~57% (the KSA website) . With the timelag in KSA reporting to international registries, Wiki reports that to 12 Mar there were  only 402deaths /938 cases in KSA ie 43% deaths; but 1082 cases worldwide with 439 ie 37% deathrate in 24 countries-  118  cases with 28 deaths  in the 8 middle east nations surrounding the KSA, giving a deathrate around but not in KSA of only 24%, and 3 deaths in 7 cases in their 3 African neighbouring countries;  and 8 deaths in 22 cases in 12 distant countries ie 36% deathrate.

so while there have apparently been no new MERS cases outside KSA in their summer for months, the ongoing reported caserate in KSA is alarming with the deathrate having climbed to 55%. Obviously, to explain the apparent rising deathrate,  detection and reporting of new MERS cases in KSA will likely be increasingly of only serious respiratory cases and their immediate contacts; and otherwise unexplained deaths; but the fact is that 10 MERS- associated deaths were  again detected there   the past week..

So while camels rather than bats are teeming with MERS virus and believed to be the main vactor to their human compatriots, it is instructive to to see a number of recent studies  (1, 2, 3) in north African camels showing that they have vitamin D levels 10 to 40 times higher than Arabian citizens who import them en masse, farm, nuture, milk  and eat them. MERS is if at all a trivial coronavirus corrhyza in such camels, like the common cold coronaviruses cause  in humans. This contrasts with the scarcity of MERS cases reported from N Africa- where camel farmers presumably do not cover up as religious law makes the Saudi citizens do.

And it  correlates with the epidemic of Ebola in central West Africa- Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia  , where the chief vector of Ebola seems to be ebola-resistant fruit bats, who live in the dark and have very low vitamin D levels- presumably like their very dark-skinned human compatriots, who presumably also still live largely in the forests or in cities and thus have equally low vitamin D levels; and thus far reported about 25000  suspected cases and 10000 deaths ie 40%; with no antiviral cure in sight; with ?4 deaths in ?18 cases so far reported outside  Africa.

These are more reasons to pour safe lowcost effective antivirals vits C and D3 (with balancing vits A,   Zinc etc) into such patients and their compatriots at risk. (vit K2 supplement matters only long term against arterial calcification, osteoporosis and cancer in longevity.)

7 March 2015.   EPIDEMIC BY power-crazy RELIGIOUS  & ECONOMIC EDICT?: MERS:  globally  ~1040 cases of MERS have been reported. But apparently none outside Saudi Arabia in recent  months: So March  opens in KSA  with 7 day MERS caseload  19  new cases (mean age ~56yrs), and 8  deaths ie total now 939 and deaths 403. . Thats ~20 cases reported the past 7 days there, with 10  deaths ie 50%… in a country in which  18 months  and more ago endemic vitamin D deficiency was reported in the Saudi Gazette by their scientistswidely attributed to the obvious cause, that in a land of such abundant sunshine, more so than in any other country in the world, women  are obliged by draconian religious law   to cover up almost totally outside their houses,   and  elderly observant men almost as much.

European Journal of Clinical Nutrition , (18 February 2015) Determinants of vitamin D deficiency among undergraduate medical students in Saudi Arabian BinSaeed, Al-Drees ea        A cross-sectional study was performed among 255 first- to fifth-year male undergraduate medical students of a major universities in Saudi Arabia.  Results:   Majority of Saudi medical students (75.2%) had 25(OH)D levels <30nmol/l = <12ng/ml,. Multivariate analysis showed that the odds of having 25(OH)D serum levels of greater than or equal to30nmol/l were seven times higher both in students who took vitamin D (odds ratio (OR)=7.2, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.8–29.9, P=0.006) or multivitamin supplements (OR=6.9, 95% CI=1.7–27.3, P=0.006) within 1 year..   There was no significant association between 25(OH)D serum levels and average time spent outdoors per day (P=0.369) and type of clothing (long-sleeved vs short-sleeved; P=0.800).     Conclusions:   Vitamin D deficiency was highly prevalent in Saudi medical students. Modifiable factors such as vitamin D intake and PA could be targeted for intervention.

Wiki says (and Medscape echoes) that “Immune system: “While it is known that melatonin interacts with the immune system,[53][54] the details of those interactions are unclear. Antiinflammatory effect seems to be the most relevant and most documented in the literature.[55] There have been few trials designed to judge the effectiveness of melatonin in disease treatment. Most existing data are based on small, incomplete clinical trials. Any positive immunological effect is thought to be the result of melatonin acting on high-affinity receptors (MT1 and MT2) expressed in immunocompetent cells. In preclinical studies, melatonin may enhance cytokine production,[56] and by doing this counteract acquired immunodeficiences. Some studies also suggest that melatonin might be useful fighting infectious disease[57] including viral  and bacterial infections, and potentially in the treatment of cancer.”

on Pubmed melatonin as an immunomodulator goes back to 1980.

As Wiebke Arlt and Hewison wrote in 2004, “Aging is associated with a decline in immunity described as immunosenescence; paralleled by a decline in the production of several hormones, as typically illustrated by the menopausal loss of ovarian oestrogen production. However, other hormonal changes that occur with aging and that potentially impact on immune function include the release of the pineal gland hormone melatonin and pituitary growth hormone, adrenal production of dehydroepiandrosterone and tissue-specific availability of active vitamin D. It remains to be established whether hormonal changes with aging actually contribute to immunosenescence and this area is at the interface of fact and fiction, clearly inviting systematic research efforts. “

But Observant- aging-  Muslims are forbidden  the prime cicardian rhythm of outdoor sunshine stimulation of their skin,  and in women   even their retinae with total veiling. Thus although women are the tougher gender, observant  Islam condemns them to be increasingly   more compromised goods and chattels than even camels…

There is still no word that the KSA has recently bothered to promote vigorous dose vitamins D3 and C, ( with vit A, zinc, selenium and iodine), as simple safe potential antidotes to their heavily enforced overdressing blockading sunshine-vitamin D3 , that their own medical scientists have repeatedly warned about..

A new report saysEbola virus is among the most deadly pathogens, with case fatality rates of up to 90%.1 Ebola virus is categorized as a tier 1 pathogen by the US government because of its potential for deliberate misuse with significant potential for mass casualties. The current outbreak of Ebola virus in West Africa with more than 23 000 cases and 9000 deaths2 also demonstrates the long-underestimated public health threat that Ebola virus poses as a natural human pathogen. There are no licensed vaccines or postexposure treatments for combating Ebola virus.

But as with pollution, insecticides, road carnage, influenza, TB,  HIV-AIDS, malaria, cholera,  smoking, sugar, aspartame, alcoholism, it doesnt suit the Big Pharma  & Disease Corporates, their paid marketing professors/researchers at universities, and  government and hospital/ health industry, to promote avoidance, prevention, cure,  natural cheap available remedies like vitamins, minerals and other natural remedies, when disease requiring hospital admission, a patented synthetic vaccine or other drug is far more profitable. . Only Disease Pays.

28 Feb 2015   after a quiet KSA  2014/15 year-end with declining   MERS case reports- 11 in December,  20 in January, the past week has seen  18  new cases but 9 deaths in  KSA, the KSA totals SINCE 2012 UP  to  920 CASES AND 395 DEATHS (43%) ie  for  February  75cases and 31 deaths. . As always, until the KSA MOH Command clarifies, how many of these are current, versus catchup reports from previous weeks/months, remains to be seen. But as the winter recedes there, the death rate this month remains 41%%…. 

And in UAE  one new (expat) case died this month; and a new case in a nurse returning to the Philippines from KSA is the first case in that country, .. combining KSA with Wiki stats, bringing apparent world totals to perhaps about 1029 cases and 420 deaths.. The deathrate from MERS has widened starkly from 42% in to  30% outside   KSA.

8 Dec  2014:       HEALTH ADVISORY FOR VISITORS TO OR FROM MIDDLE & FAR EAST,  EUROPE,  AFRICA, the AMERICAS:  The MERS infection outbreak slacks off:  – down from the recent 2 cases a day to 25 cases in November with 12 deaths; 4 cases so far this month with 3 deaths- ie the deathrate is picking up.  .  No more exports reported from KSA since one  returned home to Qatar last month. the quadrupled case rate  since October has fallen back from 39 cases & 15 deaths a month  ; – and deathrate (9 deaths) in October in KSA  that  doubled to 0.6/day is back to the 55% rate,  still awesome for such a rich and sophisticated country.

though MERS is well below that of the ebola epidemic – some 5000 ie almost 40% deaths  among  15000 cases  so far-  that is ravishing central  west Africans impoverished by genocidal warlords; not to mention flu, cholera, HIV, TB, polio-and dengue-like illnesses . Two  ebola- infected people from  W Africa have died in USA, but 8 have recovered in USA from Ebola .

Latest evidence is that the current ebola epidemic is due to bats-   human overpopulation causing massive deforestation, displacing ecologically vital  bats (never mind vital bees,  birds and butterflies)  from their natural habitat.   Liberian workers  who flew to USA  and Germany  with Ebola died; but 8 of 9 infected cases have recovered there; as have infected European health workers. .. . .    

  But West Africans are reportedly trying to flee to South Africa to escape the epidemic. and 9 out of 16 Medicine sans Frontiers staff who contracted ebola died. .Is ebola falling there? or are patients simply hiding, dying outside hospitals?


25 Nov 2014 the MERS toll mounts in KSA- the past week only 4 new cases but 5 deaths. so this month its 21 cases, 11 deaths.

20 Nov 2014 Now 808 cases ie 18 this month, only 5 the past running week; with 9 deaths this month; so 12 cases under management.

13 November 2014   The rates pick up again- KSA declares 16 cases under treatment, 447cases recovered,  804 cases, 342 deaths; ie this month 15 cases and 5 deaths  .

4 November 2014:  KSA declares 15 Cases Under Treatment, 440 Cases Recovered,  793 Cases,  338 deaths, ie in the past week 13 new (9 Saudis, 4 expats)  and 5 deceased cases of MERS.

22 Oct 2014:  now the KSA declares  12 Cases Under Treatment, 431 Cases Recovered, 772 Cases, 329 deaths; ie 9 more cases in KSA past week  ie  1.3/day. So thats 18 cases in 22days ie the case rate up to >0.8/day, with 10 deaths  – all with previous chronic illhealth –  this month ie mortality lately 55% (8 Saudi males age 51-69, a Saudi woman age 55 and an expat male age 40)….

14  Oct 2014  The first MERS case outside KSA was reported yesterday in Qatar, in a returnee from KSA, ie thats 5 cases this week contracted in KSA, reportedly bringing world total to 892 cases and 356 deaths.  Croft  says Over the past 30 days Saudi Arabia has reported 17 MERS infections, 9 of which were from the Taif region; which concurs with the KSA stats excluding the backlog of old cases reported last month…  Four  Saudi males this week  with MERS in Jubail, Taif and now Riyadh , and  deaths each in Riyadh and Taif..  so Saudi MERS  cases there  now 10 Cases Under Treatment, 429 Cases Recovered, 763 Total; and 324 deaths ie 43% death rate . In 14 days this month that’s 9 new cases in KSA, 5 deaths, 3 cases recovered; compared to September’s  net   ?12  new cases. The stats for September (incl  19  deaths)  are blurred by the adjustments announced on 19 Sept (with previously unreported cases up to 3 June, with net 16 new cases after other corrections); so the new cases and deaths reported in August may be correct-4 new pts,  4 deaths; and July 9 new  cases, 6 deaths; and June 28  new cases? .. .

So the MERS  case rate in KSA so far this  month has mushroomed from the  0.3/day  in July, the  nadir of 0.13/d in August, ? 0.4  in Sept,  to 0.64/d this month; and the deathrate from 0.2/d  in July to the nadir of 0.13/d in Aug to >0.6/d this month.

BUT 6/9 OF THE NEW CASES THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN IN THE GARDEN RESORT CITY OF TAIF 100 KM SOUTH OF MAKKAH- mostly in Saudi men with camel contact.  perhaps this may be because of a resevoire of MERS in camels there. The climate may be favourable for humans BUT ALSO FOR MERS- October temps of 15 to 30c, humidity of 40%, 11 mm rainfall.’

     MORE ON OPTIMAL VITAMIN D3  DOSE, AND THE DIFFICULTY OF ACHIEVING CLINICAL  OVERDOSE:      Four  new reports highlight  how  difficult, and important  it is to achieve adequate optimal bloodlevels of vitamin D with vigorous vitamin D3 supplements, let alone overdose with any significant adversity: note three   used the  recommended vitamin D3,   not the long-condemned mislabeled Lennons/Aspen vitamin D2 (which is misleadingly labelled  “caciferol” without disclosing that it is D2 not D3). Even a single  2 million iu overdose of vit D3 in nonagenarians had no adverse effect-since the bloodlevel was back to zero by 3 weeks, thats above 100 000iu/day on average…....continue..

            8 Oct 2014  1st Ebola case diagnosed in Dallas USA in  a Liberian visitor, who died today (one of > 4000 deaths  in W Africa estimated so far); and a new case in Spain, the first infection outside Africa. Ebola anxiety spreads..                                                                                                                                                  It is alarming that the MERS deathrate is not falling but rising  there-5  new MERS  cases already this month,  vs 12 in Sept,  5 cases  in August; and  now 8 deaths  in past 38 days..

VITAMIN D3 DOSE: We get excellent results in outpatient adults with loading oral dose of  vit D3 of about 200 000 to 400 000iu depending on illness severity and body mass; then pro rata about 50 000iu  per week till better, tapering to fortnightly when well; pro rata in kids...continue..

​​​​​​30 Sept 2014 another new Mers case in KSA, a 70yr old Saudi man in AlMadinah. 

AND   From: David Ponsonby  September 29, 2014   http://healthimpactnews.com/2014/flu-vaccine-is-the-most-dangerous-vaccine-in-the-united-states-based-on-settled-cases-for-injuries/ 

       “The last report issued  December 2013 for the previous 3 months  by the USA Department of Justice (Vaccine Court), for compensation made by the USA Services for people injured or killed by vaccines – available as a Power Point presentation –   139 claims settled , with 70 of them being compensated. So, just over 50% of the claims filed for vaccine damages were compensated during this period.     Once again, the greatest percentage of damages compensated were for the influenza vaccine, and most of those were for Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS).           Yet these facts, in a Department of Health website, are never reported in the mainstream media. Read the report yourself in the Power Point file here.   Of the 70 cases compensated, 42 ie 60% were for the flu vaccine. The combined total of the other 40% of cases settled included the following vaccines: Hep B, Tetanus, HPV, DTaP, MMR, IPV, PCV, Hib, Meningococcal, Varicella, TD.

29 Sept 2014  MAJOR  SAUDI  UPDATE:   FRESH MERS FLAREUP WORSENS:  There have lately been 3 new cases, (2 Saudis and an expat), near Mecca; 2 in Riyadh- and now   death of  a  38yr old previously well  Saudi woman in Riyadh.

Thats  3 MERS deaths; and 4 new cases – Saudis- in central KSA  the past  10days, 11 this month; contradicting  the puzzlingly optimistic comment this week from KSA  health ministry’s Fakeih that  “MERS is not an issue in Saudi anymore. We are  doing all we can to have a safe Hajj for all our guests.”  If MERS is not an issue, why is the new caserate  there picking up, and the deathrate not falling?

the KSA Ministry‘s recent audit found  some 19 previously unlisted MERS cases in the 10 week April -May 2014 surge – all but three of the cases were in Jeddah- plus some false positives , and  changes of status..

The totals there now are 8 Cases Under Treatment, 426 Cases Recovered,753 Total; and 319 deaths ie 42% death rate .

But outside KSA there have been no further MERS cases or deaths reported for months, so thats apparently worldwide 885 cases , deaths 353 = 40%. But the deathrate outside KSA remains only 26%. and outside Arabia the deathrate remains 10/30 ie 33%.
     Despite the surge in KSA in the ~10 weeks mid-March till early June, before  the peak summer season in the Northern Hemisphere,   the ongoing outbreak in KSA (14 cases there since the month’s lull till mid-August)  contrasts with the last MERS cases reported outside KSA  in early-mid-July   about 10 weeks ago 2 cases in Abu Dhabi ie the UAE,  & 5  in Iran. .

So thats a total in KSA of 20 more new cases  and 13 more deaths  than was reported before the audit on 12 Sept.  Of the  KSA 749 total,   27% were  healthcare workers; 65% were Saudis-  the vast majority this season in Jeddah and Riyadh;  ​​​​61% male; 4% under 16yrs, 45% between 16-45, 27% 45-60. and 24% 60+ years. ie approx  15% of all cases in  every 15year age bracket from 16yrs up, but only 4% in the first 15 years. Deathrate was “only” ~18% in  EACH OF the three  15year agebrackets up to 45 years, but 45% in the 46-60yr olds; and quadrupled to 80% over age 60years.Thus unlike eg flu, only in the KSA elderly is  MERS par excellence a highly risky infection    .

MERS IN KIDS:   the likely number in KSA extrapolated from 4% of 749 cases is about 30  kids under 16yrs;  but the new KSA  bargraphs show ~18% deaths in kids ie about 5-6 died. so the child deathrate has doubled from  9% 1/11.    In Dr Memish’s April paper there were only    11 pediatric cases  positive by screening and confirmatory PCR for MERS-CoV reported from Saudi Arabia. Two patients were symptomatic and the other 9 cases were asymptomatic. The median age of patients was 13 (range 2-16) years. There were eight females and three males (2.7:1 ratio). One symptomatic patient died  (1/11 = 9%) and the other symptomatic patient recovered. The diagnosis of patients was based on positive nasopharyngeal swabs on the majority of the patients.  Most cases of childhood MERS-CoV infection was asymptomatic and tested positive during contact investigation of older patients. Severe disease can occur in children with underlying conditions.

So in KSA  with a mean population age close to 20 years, the age distribution of MERS is roughly spread across adult lifespan, sparing  (with both low incidence and low mortality) children who make up almost half the population. This is the opposite of the claimed swine flu severity in kids in the “pandemic” of 2009.  Perhaps in KSA this is as expected since generally schoolchildren take more dairy products, get more exercise, sunlight, fresh produce  and supplements, and wear less sun-exclusive clothing- supporting  vit D+C deficiency evidence as the proximate  cause of MERS-CoV susceptibility in KSA adults..

So despite repeated published warning from the top KSA scientists that their conservative (ie covered) dress and diet  code puts Saudis at very high risk of known vitamins C & D & Zinc deficiency, the blackout on acknowledging this and promoting vigorous vits C and D3 & Zinc supplements continues, with 80% death risk for the elderly and 20% for every  child who contracts MERS in KSA. Until proved otherwise by simple trial of vigorous supplements, this  denial, omission    in fact may be culpable homicide on the part of KSA authorities- especially as the KSA, with a mean annual income per head similar to UK and western Europe and with similar Caucasian origin population, notoriously has life expectancy 5 years lower than that of UK and much of the North Atlantic  lands. .

16 Sept 2014  one new case today 31yr old expat male, prev chronic, in ICU Riyadh; yesterday  76yr Saudi male  in the far south, prev chronic, in ICU. total thus 730, 29 active,…  already 5 in 2wks this month.. as the Hajj picks up…

12 Sept 2014 Bad news strikes KSA with the Hajj in full swing- after 3 clear days, 2 new MERS cases but not in the eastern provinces like the last cluster, this time one each in Riyadh and the Mekkah region, both Saudis, both in ICU;  but not the usual seniors- a 38yr old male with previous health issues;  and 28yr old female, neither of them healthcare workers.                                                                    So now the KSA numbers are 28 under care;  399 recovered; 729 total; 302 died.

8 SEPT 2014 after 9 case-free days, the 727th  new case, 60y old male expat, in Jubail, in ICU…

31 August 2014 THE KSA MERS CASE RATE PICKS UP: 42% death- rate: another new case 29 Aug, a 34 yr old expat health worker in Jubail, ie 3 cases in past 7 days. another MERS-related death- a 69yr old Saudi man in Dammam- as usual, with preexisting disease. .  So KSA has  now  25 Cases Under Treatment;    399 Cases Recovered ; 302 cases died;  total  726 Cases ie 42% died.  45% dead or impaired.    5 new cases past month.  and apparently 4 deaths. KSA reporting does not allow analysis of duration of illness to assess the current mortality rate.

Yet  Drosten, Memish ea from the international  Corona Virus Study Group write in the NEJM this week:  “Transmission of MERS-coronavirus in household contacts is only 5% in 26 MERS index patients and their 280 household contacts. Strategies to contain the MERS-CoV depend on knowledge of the rate of human-to-human transmission, including subclinical infections.   The median time from the onset of symptoms in index patients to the latest blood sampling in contacts was 17.5 days (range, 5 to 216; mean 34.4d“.

This again confirms  the obvious, that the virus, like the common cold, is low virulence and transmissibility EXCEPT in the frail  and elderly – who (perhaps like many overworked hospital workers)  in KSA who as reported there  apparently get little sunshine, little vitamin D3, and likely little vitamin C. The rate of MERS in students, kids, farm workers, labourers  remains very low, presumably because they get plenty of sunshine. And no article/report on MERS from KSA – where all adults are forced to cover up their skin outdoors- says that anyone is encouraged to vigorously top up their vits C and D3 levels.

OUTCOMES: triangulating cases  scantily reported on the KSA MERS website   with 30 new cases since mid-June,  5F (28-55yrs, 4 Saudis)  and 25 men; there have been 8 deaths all in men between 38 and 80yrs old. The high deathrate in the men may be because their average age was about 59yr vs 41yr in the women.

August:   5 new cases  (1 Saudi  female; 1 male  an expat HCW; 2 of the men- 69 and 72yrs, Saudis, chronics,   died within 3 and 6 days respectively ),

July:  10  cases;  2 Saudi female; of the 8 men, 2 are HCW , 2  expats- one of whom died the same day aet 73yrs.

June: 24 cases.  Reporting was upgraded 1 June, so stats before July- with the ~100 case undated backlog reported- are problematic. from mid June there were 15 cases reported, 3 females; 5 deaths (2 expats aet 38 & 42)  in the 12 men; the Saudi deaths were aet 45-80yrs.

27 August 2014  2 new cases past 3 days, Saudi man and woman in Dammam.(one subsequently proven false +ve)   25 Cases Under Treatment, 399 Cases Recovered ;   725 Cases   Total;   301 cases passed away .

 24 August 2014: 12 days free of new MERS cases in KSA.      but on 22 Aug the death of another male, a 66yr old expat, was reported in Riyadh,  this  totals  23 Cases Under Treatment, 399 Cases Recovered; 301 cases passed away, (May Allah have mercy upon them). * Total  723 Cases.  44.8% dead or impaired.

​​​​But Alghamdi ea from the KSA Govt &  Universities, and Lincoln University UK have this week  published  The pattern of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Saudi Arabia: from June 2013-May 2014  ie some 425 cases (before the recent June “discovery” of another 100+ cases there). This study deduces that the outbreak thrived especially in Riyadh and Jeddah  with high temperature and low humidity ie summer desert conditions;   older men being at much higher risk than their kinswomen. . But once again, the paper  studiously avoids the obvious reasons why KSA is at the hub of the MERS storm. The authors   like the KSA authorities totally ignore the repeatedly published studies by their own academics the past decade, and even by USA authorities like Prof Mike Holick, that Saudis have markedly low vitamin C and D and even zinc levels. And their increasingly orthodox overdress as they age and have more leisure time drastically increases their vitamin D deficiency.

This comes back to usual Media and Governmental  Semmelweis denialism , persisting  with the myth that good diet  and prescription medicines are  enough.  In fact balanced nutrition with fresh natural produce is becoming a rarity even in stable progressive urban cities, and  the resultant epidemics of infections let alone degenerative diseases are in most cases due, (apart from deliberate pollution especially with plastics, estrogenics , pesticides, endocrine disruptors eg phthalates,  heavy metals including fluorides, bromates;   dioxin etc,  radioactivity,  and high refined carbs,  and inadequate fish oil and medium chain triglycerides  and water intake),  to micronutrient deficiencies especially of vitamins C, D3, K2,  and crucial minerals like magnesium, zinc, iodine, selenium, chromium  etc.

Modern infectious outbreaks like the resurgence of influenza, polio, TB, HIV  and MERS, and hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola and Marburg, are arguably as others have proposed deficency diseases – eg scurvy, since all the severe infections listed, never mind acute bacterial infections, have been shown for almost a century to respond dramatically to highdose vit C, vit D3 and some zinc, and multivite (A,B), without antibiotics or much benefit from eg ARVs or tuberculostatics. .

     As of 12 pm  August 20, 2014:  “now only 25 Cases Under Treatment; 398 Cases Recovered Total  723 Cases;  300 cases passed away”

​​​​    19 August 2014 : KSA  updated figures  no new MERS cases past  7 days.  BUT  another death– a 72yr old Saudi man  with previous chronic disease,  in Riyadh on 17 Aug. so  “As of 12 pm  Aug 19, 2014:  723 Cases,  26 Cases Under Treatment; 397 Cases Recovered; 300 cases passed away   (May Allah have mercy upon them).”. ie the death + impaired rate  326/723 has risen to 46.4%, deathrate 41.6%. ?? 855 cases, 334 deaths  worldwide?

So thats 326 patients in KSA who died or are still impaired by MERS, who might have been spared by simple highdose vits (D3 +  C) supplement-at trivial cost,  no major adverse effects, but massive evidence of protection and cure against all serious diseases; in a population at long-known high vits C+D3 deficiency risks. .

The Zeitgeist occupation analysis of MERS cases to 4 June shows unchanged pattern: 164 Health workers,    150 retired persons,  23 children,  11 pilgrims, 3 tourists,  2 construction labourers, 1 butcher, 1 camelbreeder, 1 shepherd… (out of 838 cases reported till then- ie occupation was disclosed in only 44% ie 380 pts) . The reason for the majority nondisclosure is not given.

The question remains: why are (inter)national authorities ignoring all the published evidence linked below, that vigorous dose vitamin D3 supplement eg 5000iu/kg  loading dose then 1500iu/kg/fortnight eg 100 000iu every two weeks , plus a few grams of buffered vitamin C a day, drastically reduces all diseases including virus infections?

12 August 2012 KSA  reports (after a month free of new cases)  despite peak summer there, two new  previously chronically ill   Saudi cases  in two days:  a 72year Riyadh man; a 59 year old  man far south of Riyadh; and death of a previously reported apparently formerly  well 74 year Riyadh Saudi man. But they dont say when these recent elderly Saudis took ill or died.  Total in KSA now 723 cases, 41% deaths. 28 cases under treatment  ie 45.2% dead or impaired. ..

To put MERS in perspective, Ebola in Central Africa this year has  infected  over 2000 cases, 50% deaths, probably worsening the >100 000 malaria deathrate per year in the region, globally >200 million cases a year with a million ie 0.5% deaths.. ..  Mosquito-spread Chikungunya virus spreads from Africa/Asia   to over 570 000 people  across  the central Americas .. …   .

9 Aug 2014  still not over:  NOT THE END OF THE ARABIAN MERS CoV OUT- BREAK-  STILL MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS, :  its now  30 days since the last reported MERS case –  BUT  the  fact  is that the KSA Bulletin chillingly reports  “As of 12 pm  9  Aug, 2014:    1.” still 27 Cases Under Treatment     2. 396 Cases Recovered.  3. 298 cases passed away (May Allah have mercy upon them).  total 721 case.   so 30 days after the last recorded new case,   27 patients there are still suffering from MERS sequelae – for at least four weeks duration now, likely now permanent?. .

27 cases out of 721 total reported in KSA is only about 4%. But since these 27 cases remain under care a month  after the last reported new case, they must now  be at best approaching chronically impaired, if not on renal  or respiratory assistance.  ie the total of dead and impaired rises to 325/721 = about 45%. More important, KSA has apparently not yet released an analysis of the demography and primary and secondary causes of death of these cases- presumably by MERS definition, respiratory and renal . This analysis is urgently needed. All we know for certain is that there was a MERS outbreak apparently in one of their Dialysis units; and that the outbreak was especially bad in health workers especially hospital staff.

COMBINED SEVERE ACUTE RENAL AND RESPIRATORY FAILURE: Forty years ago we (Burman ND, Austin M, Thatcher GN ea) delivered a review of Groote Schuur Hospital experience at a local South  African renal congress on the high mortality of combined  acute renal and respiratory failure in the age of hemodialysis and ventilators, respiratory intensive care, antibiotics and immunosuppression. . Apart from the common major sepsis,  trauma and allergic eg antibiotic  causes, the obvious “primary” cause – which any virus eg MERS-CoV  may mimic- , is the “autoimmune” hypersensitivity Goodpastures Syndrome GPS – which untreated has a mortality of ~80% but with modern treatment perhaps 20%. This is half the deathrate reported in KSA from MERS. There is no shortage of respiratory and renal ICU and dialysis, advanced medical specialists  in KSA centres. So from GPS perspective, much better salvage might be expected.

GPS is rare affecting about 1ppm (0.5-1.8 per million people) per year in Europe and Asia.[5] The peak age ranges for the onset of the disease are 20-30 and 60-70 years.[5]  It is also unusual among autoimmune diseases in that it is more common in males , less common in blacks than whites. This may partly explain why the inhabitants of the dromedary-exporting Horn of Africa have been spared MERS outbreaks.

A recent review from Germany gives the mean time from onset of MERS to acute renal failure of only 11 +-2 days (c0mpared to 20 days in SARS). It is well reported that those contracting acute MERS are already sufferers from major chronic illnesses eg diabetic- cardiorenal-respiratory ie heavily predisposed to  immune failure if not already in renal failure.

Humans have some four  primary excretory/detox  systems: hepato-gastrointestinal; skin; renal; and  lung. In Arabia, water is scarce, the desert climate is hot and dry, and the obligatory dress for the observant almost total body cover by robes. So MERS SARRS is high risk especially as it knocks out the two main excretory systems- renal, respiratory, and in  very high ambient temperatures  also the skin;  except for the affluent minority  who have aircooled spacious private homes and offices;  with  often a reported  element of viral gastroenteritis, akin to influenza. .

The mystery remains: why is the  UAE reporting 73 cases/9.2million ie 8 per million,  but only 12% mortality, compared to the adjoining KSA 721 cases/30 million ie 24 per million?  with 93% of world MERS cases recorded from KSA and UAE, and all cases anywhere traceable back to the Arabian Peninsula. The KSA and UAE urgently need to publish an analysis of the demography and pathophysiology of their MERS cases. Is it mostly indigenous Arabs who are contracting and especially dying from MERS in these countries, or also many foreign workers, mainly malnourished labourers?

A major factor is likely demographic: Wiki says In KSAThere are 20 million Saudi citizens and 5 million foreigners living in Saudi Arabia.[14] Most Saudis are Sunni Muslims, approximately 23 percent are Wahhabis, With the world’s second largest oil reserves , the Kingdom is categorized as a high income economy with the 19th highest GDP in the world.   Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy.[70] However, according to the Basic Law of Saudi Arabia adopted by royal decree in 1992, the king must comply with Sharia (Islamic law) and the Quran, while the Quran and the Sunnah (the traditions of Muhammad) are declared to be the country’s constitution.[71] According to The Economist‘s 2010 Democracy Index, the Saudi government is the seventh most authoritarian from among the 167 countries rated.[72]. The ethnic composition of Saudi citizens is 90% Arab and 10% Afro-Asian.[212] Saudi Arabian dress strictly follows the principles of hijab (the Islamic principle of modesty, especially in dress).

In the UAE ie Emirates, Wiki says in 2013  UAE’s total population was 9.2 million; 1.4 million Emirati citizens and 7.8 million expatriate ie  16.6% Emirati (citizenry), 23% other Arabs,  54.4% Asians,  and 6.0% other expatriates. Thus the relatively democratic  & liberal  UAE has only 40% Arab ie (majority also Wahhabi) Muslim  population, compared to  some 90% in the KSA. .    in 2005, 76% of the total UAE population was Muslim, 9% Christian, and 15% other (mainly Hindu). Census figures do not take into account the many “temporary” visitors and workers while also counting Baha’is and Druze as Muslim.[65] Among Emirati citizens, 85% are Sunni Muslim, while Shi’a Muslims are 15%.

The comparable life expectancy in the  bigger but relatively poor mostly caucasian countries of Europe is 80 yrs (Portugal), 81 (UK) to 83yrs , and 84.6 in Japan. Why the richer   KSA has so much lower life expectancy can only be due to combination of culture (overdress?) and perhaps genetics-  but Israel, also a predominantly eastern mediterranean semitic people, like Europe  has life expectancy of  82.1 years. on that tabulation, UAE expectancy is 79.2yrs, USA 79.8, but KSA  only 74.3.

Comparison of Gross domestic product and per capita income for 2014 fail to explain the differences in life expectancy ie survival between the highest earning countries, with KSA, UAE, Israel and much of the middle east countries falling in the $30 to $40 000 per capita income bracket.

NO NEW CASES WORLDWIDE: 4 suspected  MERS cases  investigated in Hong Kong after arriving there  via Dubai have proved negative for MERS.

while Ebola, AIDS, cholera, polio  and bubonic plague spread despite major efforts at containment… with at least USA and UK preparing for ebola outbreak, and China for the  bubonic plague.

8 August 2014  Ebola virus disease EVD update – West Africa  Disease outbreak news     Between 5 and 6 August 2014, a total of 68 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 29 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.     On Wednesday, 6 August and Thursday, 7 August, an Emergency Committee  determined  that   the current outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. and advised that:                 it constitutes an ‘extraordinary event’ and a public health risk to other States; the possible consequences of further international spread are particularly serious in view of the virulence of the virus, the intensive community and health facility transmission patterns, and the weak health systems in the currently affected and most at-risk countries.

It was the unanimous view of the Committee that the conditions for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) have been met.   New cases and deaths attributable to EVD continue to be reported by the Ministries of Health in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. Between 5 and 6 August 2014, 68 new cases (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) of EVD and 29 deaths were reported from the four countries as follows: Guinea, 0 new cases and 4 deaths; Liberia, 38 new cases and 12 deaths; Nigeria, 4 new cases and 1 death; and Sierra Leone, 26 new cases and 12 deaths.

As of 6 August 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the four countries stands at 1 779, including 961 deaths. The distribution and classification of the cases are as follows: Guinea, 495 cases (355 confirmed, 133 probable, and 7 suspected), including 367 deaths; Liberia, 554 cases (148 confirmed, 274 probable, and 132 suspected), including 294 deaths; Nigeria, 13 cases (0 confirmed, 7 probable, and 6 suspected), including 2 deaths; and Sierra Leone, 717 cases (631 confirmed, 38 probable, and 48 suspected), including 298 deaths.– mortality rate so far 55%.

For a viral hemorrhagic illness, as for acute MERS and flu,  Ebola treatment and prevention  remains supportive, including plenty of fluids and salts, multivites incl K1,   highdose vitamin C eg a few grams hourly to tolerance,  vitamin D3 perhaps 300 000iu orally to start then 100 000iu weekly, iodine, zinc, selenium, garlic, ginger, ecchinacea and colloidal silver till out of the woods.. . 

29 July 2014  the first Wiki update in weeks  indeed shows no reported increase in KSA cases with 41% fatalities; but total Arabian Peninsula cases up to 825 with 321deaths  ie 39% fatalities, and  96.3% of global – 855 cases and 331 deaths ie 39%.

 28 July 2014 THE END OF THE ARABIAN MERS CoV OUTBREAK? its now apparently 18 days without new MERS cases reported from KSA , compared to 6 cases in the previous week… .              so the Wiki figure of WHO-reported cases  in the Arabian Peninsula (plus the 2 recent cases in UAE)  totals 814/(835 globally  ie 97.5%  of reported world cases),  with 315 Peninsula  deaths ie 38.7% fatality rate- but only 13% in the  far less coverup- restrictive UAE with its huge foreign worker population. . . supporting the studies of KSA scientists  of more severe vit D deficiency in the most covered-up observant people, citizens of Saudi Arabia and its fellow ultra-observant Wahhabi bordering neighbour states (except the UAE)  to the south and east. .

and now Ebola epidemic outbreaks kill hundreds in central Africa.  The nocturnal fruit bat (that locals eat)  is apparently the vector. There is strong reasoning that these could be prevented, successfully treated (humans if not bats) with safe highdose vits C and D3.  Like humans, all tested families of bats, including major insect- and fruit-eating bat families, cannot synthesize vitamin C,.    and have very low vit D levels,  make vitamin D only if they roost in sunlight.

and Central Africans are very darkskinned, and the masses malnourished from rampant  genocidal wars, so they will have the lowest levels of vitamins C and  D3. 

20 July 2014  MAYBE..  JUST LACK OF REPORTING?          ‘s A Time’s Memory   to 17 July shows  17  more reported MERS cases (all outside the KSA -still 721  cases, 297 deaths): globally 852 with 329 deaths;   Arabia 829 with 319 deaths; ie rest of world 23 cases and 10 deaths-  similar mortality 41% in Arabia compared to 43% in the 23 infected cases who returned to  their own countries  (middle east, north Africa, Europe, USA, Malaysia, Philippines) not on  the Arabian peninsula- from  their visit/working  there or,  rarely, contact with returnees. .  So has the outbreak  stopped in the past 10 day

ps the USAEBN radio website reports startlingly different case numbers in far fewer  nations, especially tenfold more cases  in Qatar and half the number in UAE.  Time will tell. . this high occurrence in Qatar is not reported anywhere else? on 24 July it reports for KSA alone  834 Cases (897 in the Arabian Peninsula); 288 Fatalities. globally 873 cases with death rate only 35%.      still the massive discrepancies with startlingly far more cases in Qatar and Philippines and far less in the UAE. This website claims, perhaps not implausibly,  that “Government Organizations Do not want to publish total numbers of cases for fear of panic, USAEBN will be trying to track it.”

Virologist Dr Ian MacKay IN MID JULY  puts the world total of cases at 846 in his informative analysis of age and gender demography.

But with neighbouring Iraq in civil war breakdown and even polio flareup, who knows how many there are suffering and dying from unmonitored  MERS CoV.

14 July 2014  The UAE reports 2 new cases of MERS CoV – the first in a long time-, bringing their total to about 73 cases, 9 deaths ie 12% fatality. . KSA reported one new case 10 July ie  4  past week, and 5 in each of the  the  previous few weeks; with no deaths, tally now 721 cases, 295 deaths ie 41%.                       The UK Gov travel warning is about terrorism in the region, not MERS.

The vexed question of the method of spread of MERS CoV between animals- dromedary camels- and humans  continues to be hotly debated between expert virologists and camelmen. The KSA has still not issued [ any restriction on camel imports from the suspected source of the MERSCoV- the Horn of Africa.

But the argument is irrelevant for practical purposes.  Tradition, belief  dies hard, like the strictly enforced hijab overdress, and camelkeeping: Riyadh’s camel market stretches several miles along a highway out of the city. It’s not true. Camels occupy a special place in Saudi society,  We live,  sleep,  eat and spend our whole lives with camels, we drink their milk, its a medicine.. There’s no disease,” said a trader at the market”.       Its the story of 160 years ago, the cholera-spreading London’s  Broad St water pump until Dr John Snow recognized and stopped the source of the cholera diarrhoea epidemic.   This  far more lethal KSA  lung-kidney epidemic is simpler- encourage people worldwide to get plenty of free natural sunshine , or if living at far north darker  latitude or  practicing hijab and unable to sunbathe- especially over Ramadan- take at negligible cost  vigorous supplement of vitamin  D3 to a high safe  bloodlevel .

8 July 2014  Spread of MERS CoV- Down but not out: from 15 cases a day in early May,  now KSA has reported  8 new cases past 7 days;   ie 720 total, 294 deaths- 4 new cases past 3 days, with 1 new death. 18 new cases in 24 days since 13 June. So the rate of new cases is not dropping there the past month – or simply more cases being tested and reported. Only sick cases who see doctors, and their contacts, and city  health workers,  are likely being screened.

The death rate in KSA  since the outbreak 2 years ago remains 40%.      why should this be? other than that Saudis do not benefit from the midsummer as do other populations-  they remain shrouded in overdress and thus severely vitamine D deficient? and the virus seems to spread not airborne  but by direct contact – human to human, or camel-(milk?)-human?  and the KSA has not yet been reported to have stopped mass camel importation from the Horn of Africa for butchers to supply meat.

MERS CASES BY OCCUPATION:     Shane Granger has tabulated more recent reported MERS  cases by occupation where data is available  –  >375 cases:Health Care Workers (HCW) the  largest group – 161:  includes all types of unidentified Health workers (i.e. Nurses,  Doctors, hospital and clinic staff).                             Retired: also  161 (incl Pilgrims 11).                                             Schoolkids 18 -third. Farmers 12 – fourth.  .  tourist 3; construction 2;  Camelbreeder, butcher , shepherd one each.

The retirees are the elderly, generally frailer, probably more at leisure, more orthodox ie more ritually overdressed?  and circulating /concentrated more through/in  the cities especially Mekkah, Riyadh,  Jeddah, and visiting the more frail and sick worldwide; thus more susceptible.

Healthworkers are obviously the most stressed and hardworking,  exposed to concentration of symptomatic MERS cases and thus ingestion and surface (if not droplet) contamination .

The major surprise is the low occurrence in schoolkids, pilgrims, and non-health industry workers, teachers, clergy, armed forces,  shop  and office staff, non-healthcare  govt workers,    etc.

This also favours nutritional ( sunlight/vit D/C/zinc) deficiency as a significant factor in susceptibility of retirees and healthworkers to MERS. The general population (unless seriously ill with other disease)  is largely immune to MERS, like flu and common colds, in them  the MERS CoVirus seemingly causes nothing more.

4 July 2014  frail pilgrims  should postpone the Hajj this year.  the  European Centre reports     KSA 716 cases, 293 deaths;    worldwide 843 cases (817 in Arabia incl now 4 in Iran), 322 deaths. in 21 countries, ie 21 cases outside the Middle East (ie outside the camel contagion area  south-east across the Arab states that have had 791 cases so far)  .  So thats about 10 new cases over the mid summer  in KSA the past 15 days so far. Only 1 new  death.  Case reporting from the rest of the world lags behind.

So the Philippines has advised its citizens to postpone Hajj to Mecca this year.

Certainly  frail pilgrims – especially with diabetic and cardiorenal/respiratory diseases -all over the world will be wise to  postpone. And the KSA is at last considering stopping import of camels (4.7 million a year mostly for human consumption,  – mostly from Somalia, which has never reported a MERS case) –  from the Horn of Africa- their main meat supply. This appears to be the source of the outbreak- simply camel colds that kill only sickly humans who unlike camels avoid sunshine by edict… .    Up to April 2014, it was predominantly a disease of older men; (it appears that camels are men’s work);  but by midMay the male dominance in human MERS cases was fading.

But is the core problem the well-camel MERS-Covirus carriers? It is in fact more likely that the prime cause is that the entire KSA population is at extreme risk – both because those who can afford it overdress by religious edict, especially upperclass Muslim women in total coverup and thus badly vitamin D deficient;  and  because the KSA imports vast numbers of mostly poor unskilled foreigners to do mostly manual work. Such poor labourers are usually undernourished, living in poor conditions, and with poor access to medicines and medical care until they collapse; and unless outdoor labourers, living and working long hours indoors, and hence also badly vitamin-D and C deficient. .   The Wiki review  Saudi Arabia  “Foreign workers estimated them to number 1/3 of KSA residents recently.  Saudi Arabia has become increasingly dependent on foreign labour, and although foreign workers remain present in technical positions, most are now employed in the agriculture, cleaning and domestic service industries. The hierarchy of foreign workers is often dependent on their country of origin; workers from Arab and Western countries generally hold the highest positions not held by Saudis, and the lower positions are occupied by persons from Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia.  the situation has persisted because of a reluctance by Saudis to take on menial work and a shortage of Saudi candidates for skilled jobs.[.. The Saudi economy has, therefore, remained dependent on importees for expertise in specialized industries, and on the Asian workforce for the construction industry, menial and unskilled tasks.[8]  Saudization is generally considered to have been a failure.[10]

THE MERS-CoV CAMELTRAIN FROM AFRICA:   This again begs the huge question:  if camels carrying asymptomatic airways MERS CoV are indeed the virus vector from Africa –  almost 5000 a year from Somalia alone- imported into KSA  through Jeddah port,  WHY ARE THE  EXPORTING  CAMEL- TRADERS and camel- breeders IN NORTH AFRICA NOT  SUFFERING vastly from MERS  respiratory-renal syndrome?  They are likely Muslim if not black Africans;  oil-rich Arabia employs vast numbers of overseas expats as labourers, and outside the KSA, Arabia especially the UAE  hosts hundreds of thousands of non-Muslim professionals. But unlike say Indians and other Asians, Pinoys and Malaysians are mostly Muslim, so are more likely to observe cover-up dress code,  and thus be more vulnerable to MERS. . This again supports the evidence that   the current symptomatic serious MERS-CoV   SARRS – Severe Acute Respiratory Renal Syndrome –  that occurs in and kills almost exclusively vit D deficient frail observant Muslims  – is due to conditioned  sunlight deficiency.          The north African camel breeders and traders, and  the camel herders and camel men in Arabia  ( like cowboys on the prairies and herders worldwide in hot  climates), are unlikely  devout well -berobed  Bedouin  of Arabia.  Camelmen like cowboys get  plenty of sunshine vit D, if only via bare faces and arms; and thus can with probable impunity,  immunity against MERS, drink raw camel milk and travel with vast camel herds.

27 June 2014 update: (compared to  13 June 2014 KSA  702 cases, 292 death, worldwide 826 cases, 326 deaths): there are now reported in KSA 710 or 718 cases ie 8 -16 in 2  weeks, no more deaths; and globally  833 cases & 322 deaths. . Australian virologist Dr Ian Mckay postulates why vast camel imports (from Africa, via Jeddah  port)  for eating  is likely the source of MERS in Saudi Arabia.                 He omits the obvious link in the chain, that the deathrate from MERS CoV is far  lower outside Saudi Arabia because  this sunny  country is the strictest in the world for enforcing Wahhabi hijab total overdress code   and thus profound acquired vitamin D deficiency even in men,  and worse in  females who  in public  – unlike men- must have even their  heads and faces veiled by a niqab- and in pilgrims from other lands who as part of  their holy pilgrimage undertake to follow permanently  the strict hijab dresscode. Their simple option is  to take effective permanent  vitamin D3 orally  eg 50 000 iu weekly.

IT IS COMMON CAUSE THAT ONE DOESNT, CANNOT   PREVENT OR TREAT INFECTION BY POOR NUTRITION OR LOWDOSE ANTI- MICROBIALS- such policy is futile if not dangerous for breeding resistance as well as disease extension.   The studies below confirm the obvious, (as Klenner, Pauling,  Cameron ea showed the past 50 years with highdose vit C injection), that  vitamin D3 orally also works as a multiantimicrobial agent if given as early as possible in safe very high dose and bloodlevel eg 600 000iu monthly (in the first month, – in Salahuddin’s  Pakistan PTB patients (presumably also Sunni muslim) initially mean wt 45kg, thats vit D3 ~440iu/kg/d) for two doses ie a mean of 300iu/kg/day over 90days;   not the current preventative recommendation of 80iu/kg /day to a safe blood level of around 50-60ng/ml. As Holick has said, with adequate water intake  even 50 000iu vit D3 a day ie 1.5million iu/month for months causes no toxicity. Given the 40% mortality rate in the frail Saudi MERS patients, and in acute severe influenza and other serious viral infections, it can be expected that such  highdose immediate vitamin D3 therapy orally with eg 600 000iu, combined with highdose vitamin C, zinc and some multivite,  (never mind appropriate antibiotics in acute bacterial infection) will similarly virtually eliminate mortality.

But no KSA Govt website mentions this- except the Saudi Gazette a year ago which strongly urged vitamin D supplement in the KSA as even daily sun exposure does not bring most Saudi women above the vitamin D deficiency threshold. It says Since Muslim women can only reveal the hands and face, they may need to be out in the sun for longer than 30 minutes. But the review conspicuously  fails to mention that in public outdoors in KSA, women must have even the head and face covered. It also  propagates surprising  dangerous  nonsense that “severe deficiency needs monthly vitamin D injectionMom, have you taken your vitamin D injection this month?, when all it requires is an oral daily, weekly  or fortnightly  dose vitamin D3  at trivial cost.” It does stress  “One of the main reasons why vitamin D deficiency is so common in the Kingdom is because there are very few food sources of vitamin D. Foods which have fairly good amounts of vitamin D are fish liver oil, sweet potatoes, egg yolks, vegetable oils, butter, and fatty fish such as salmon, sardines, and tuna,” said Dr. Rasha Jameel, a consultant in family medicine at a local hospitalIn the United States, all milk and dairy products are fortified with vitamins A and D, but no such measures are in place in the Kingdom“.

This correlates with a new metaanalysis (in the  BMJ this month) of observational studies from Europe and USA, that all-mortality hazard ratio over a mean of 10 years  increases by 57% as vit D level falls from the highest to the lowest level. The KSA apparently chooses to ignore that, as this column reported recently from WHO data, despite  apparently being the wealthiest country per capita  of bigger populations  in the world,  KSA’s population life expectation is about 5 years lower than eg far less sunny Britain’s; ie KSA  all-cause mortality rate is avoidably materially higher. Despite KSA medical professors  having reported in studies  that most of the KSA population is deficient in vits D and C, the  KSA Govt website  chooses to ignore this on official websites;  unlike other even Middle-Eastern governments promoting vit D fortification or meaningful safe supplements costing trivial amounts.

Even a new study last year from KSA universities confirmed that ” Most commonly consumed food products by Saudi population which are supposed to be fortified by vitamin D are either not fortified or contain an amount less than  (apparently  from their table 2 ~ half of)  recommended by guidelines set for US marketplace”. Even a UAE authority recently stressed “Can fortified milk fight Vitamin D deficiency? Shockingly low levels of D3 among UAE population cannot be rectified by milk alone.” As Holick ea, including  a Turkish University 2010  trial report,  oral vitamin D3 is far more  effective , and safer than,   either vitamin D2, or vitamin D injection -never mind much cheaper. This current ostrich-head-in-the-sand denialism by the KSA government is like that of the RSA govt under Presidents Mbeki and Zuma 10-15 years ago about preventing and treating HIV-AIDS  – considering that the safe and beneficial daily intake of vitamin D3 is now universally recognized as 4000 if not 10 000iu/day (ie about 80iu/kg/day or pro rata up to perhaps fortnightly) , to a mean blood vit D  level of about 60 to 80ng/ml. .

As Prof Mike Holick pointed out a few years ago, “Even in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and South Africa, more than 50% of the population is deficient in vitamin D, all because of their avoidance of sun. Based on some of the literature, it seems that we could probably decrease health care costs across the board by 25% if everybody had optimal vitamin D status.” As Al Faraj ea reported in Riyadh in 2003,   Prof Zahid Naeem from a KSA university wrote in 2010,Vitamin D deficiency is an ignored epidemic in KSA  and globally“; confirmed by a KSA study by Ali ea in 2012:Even in a sunny country like Saudi Arabia the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in young female is high“..  One does not need to  speculate why the KSA and all governments globally choose to ignore this inconvenient truth,  downplay effective vigorous  vitamin C and D3 (sunshine) supplements-  such widespread vitamin D and C deficiencies, like cigarette smoking and alcohol abuse,   suit governments and Big Pharma-  the Disease Industry- in reducing populations growths and creating jobs for the highly profitable Disease Industry and it’s shareholders-   for whom Only Disease Pays. Cheap safe natural  Prevention Does not Pay since it at least halves sickness never mind disease industry jobs, taxes  and profiteering in the global $multitrillion Disease and Diet and Vaccine and Invasive Screening Industry scams.

And Karen Hansen ea at Univ Wisconsin 2014 have  just shown  that  giving vitamin D2  (not D3)  50 000iu fortnightly for a year is actually adverse – as Holick and others have  show – IT DEPRESSES – perhaps halves – THE BIOLOGICALLY ACTIVE blood 25OHVIT D3 while boosting perhaps 5 fold the far less active blood 25OHvit D2 levels , and actually worsens  rheumatoid arthritis clinically and serologically . One can speculate whether vit D2 actually blocks optimal function of VDRs vitamin D receptors. Trials published 2012 from Japan and Netherlands showed that vitamin D3 – blood 1,25(OH)2D3 (but not TNFalpha blockers) blocked  inflammation (ie TNF tumour necrosis factor alpha activation of vascular calcification).                                                 

Salahudfin ea’s new randomized controlled trial  from Pakistan Vitamin D3 injection accelerates clinical recovery from tuberculosis  shows “impressive clinical (weight gain, chest xray and sputum clearing)  improvement  over 3 months on outpatient TB therapy (Directly Observed Therapy (DOTS) with 2 months of 4 antituberculous drugs [Isoniazid, Rifampicin, Ethambutol and Pyrazinamide] followed by 6 months Isoniazid and Ethambutol)  with two doses 600 000iu vit D3 imi  (vs placebo inj)  a month apart-  ie equivalent to about 7 000iu/day over the 3 months treatment period . This dose  of vitamin D is as recommended for vitamin D supplement by the Pakistan Endocrine Society.  Trough  25OH vit D levels increased from about 20 to 90ng/ml.    After 12 weeks, the vitamin D supplemented pts (mean 28 yrs, BMI 17.2kg, 85% moderate to far advanced lung disease)  had  significantly greater mean weight gain (kg) + 3.75, (3.16 – 4.34) versus + 2.61, p 0.009; lesser residual disease by chest xxray-  30% fewer zones involved 1.35 v/s 1.82 p 0.004,   and 50% or greater reduction in cavity size 106 (89.8%) v/s 111 (94.8%), p 0.035. Vitamin D supplementation led to significant increase in MTBs-induced IFN-g secretion in patients with baseline ‘Deficient’ vitamin D serum levels (p 0.021). Patients in the vitamin D arm and serum < 30 ng/mL (‘Insufficient’ and ‘Deficient’ groups) at enrollment had significantly greater improvements in TB severity scores compared to patients with normal baseline vitamin D levels; p 0.014. This corresponds with the earliest reports of the benefits of vitamin D in TB patients published in 1848 [21] that describes disease arrest, weight gain and reduction in mortality in patients with TB treated with cod liver oil compared to standard therapy alone. More recently, Martineau et al  [7]  demonstrated that a single oral dose of 2.5 mg (100,000 IU) of vit D2 significantly reduced growth of mycobacteria . A randomized, placebo controlled study on 67 Indonesian patients, by Nursyam et al , Jakarta  [22] reported that pulmonary TB patients given 420,000 IU of vitamin D over 6 weeks  ie 10 000iu/day had significantly higher sputum conversion rates as compared to placebo (p 0.002). Martineau et al. [8] showed that 100,000 IUs of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 supplementation significantly improved sputum conversion rates in patients with the Taq1 25-hydroxyvitamin D receptor polymorphism of the tt genotype.                                                                     .        

            As Salahuddin ea note, the good results in Pakistan in only 3 months with vigorous  INITIAL dose vit D3  contrasts with Two recently published large randomised, controlled trials of conservative vitamin D3 over months  that achieved far lower blood vitamin D levels found no difference in clinical outcomes or mortality:           after 400,000iu of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 or placebo were given by   Martineau ea  in London, UK to 146 pulmonary TB patients – where mean (trough  or midpoint)  vit D level  (after 100 000iu vitamin D(3) or placebo at baseline and 14, 28, and 42 days after starting standard tuberculosis treatment) – was surprisingly only  40ng/ml at 56days – ie after a mean of 7000iu/d by  56 days,  vs 10ng/ml  on placebo)- less than half of the bloodlevel  achieved on vit D3  in the Pakistan trial ;      

        and  by Wejse et al  2009  in  Guinea-Bissau to 365 TB patients  – who received  300,000 IUs of vit D3   ie only 100,000 IU or placebo at inclusion and again 5 and 8 months after the start of treatment,  ie below 1000iu vit D3 per day over the 12 month trial period “. The Guinea-Bisseau pts thus might have achieved a mean blood vit D level boost of only  10ng/ml.. and now Havers ea (Baltimore)   show Low 25(OH)D is common in diverse HIV-infected populations and is an independent risk factor for clinical and virologic failure; Low 25(OH)D was associated with high body mass index (BMI), winter/spring season, country-race group, and lower viral load. Baseline low 25(OH)D was associated with increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) progression and death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09–4.18) and virologic failure (aHR 2.42; 95% CI, 1.33–4.41). and Shepherd ea (Eurocoord) Low Vitamin D predicts short term mortality in HIV-positive persons Odds of death decreased by 46.0%( P = .04) for a 2-fold increase in latest 25(OH)D level.. In patients with current 25(OH)D

19 June 2014 update  no new cases reported from anywhere the past few days, may be because the KSA is not reporting regularly.   so the great news is that more than 2 years after the onset of the MERS CoV outbreak in Arabia, no ongoing transmission has been reported from any of the 22 countries so far affected.

THE POLIO  SPREADING GLOBAL EPIDEMIC This decline of the MERS outbreak with the heat of summer contrasts sadly with the now-declared  global epidemic of wild natural  poliomyelitis which was hoped to be extinct by now, with Hindu- run India being declared polio-free; but now  spreading out with mass refugees from wherever war and chaos are successfully ignited by profiteers and fanatics  to neighbouring countries. Eg   an expanding militant  Islamic Wahhabi  arc – ie ultraorthodox overdress code – predisposing to vitamin D deficiency?  from Asia– Pakistan, Afghanistan, to middle east – Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Israel;        to East/West Central Africa eg Somalia, Cameroon, Ethiopia,  Kenya, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, –  with 365 cases reported in 2013. Perhaps more important is zero natural virus cases in Niger and Chad but cases caused by the circulating vaccine derived virus.  The wartorn  DRCongo  and Sudan are likely next polio outbreaks, while Angola has banned Islam because of its perceived militancy. …

And in February,   never mind an outbreak of polio-like paralysis in northern California, a new case was  reported  in a  South African neighbour-  in Botswana – for the first time there  in 20 years –; “Polio virus is endemic in five countries besides Nigeria: Afghanistan, Egypt, India, Niger and PakistanScientists confirmed that the virus isolated from the boy in Botswana came from Nigeria by laboratory tests that showed it was genetically similar to the strain that has been infecting children in Nigeria . In the past 18 months, polio viruses genetically linked to northern Nigeria have caused new cases of polio in nine previously polio-free countries. Besides Botswana, they are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo.” So polio is likely to break out in RSA  not because of Islamic overdress but because of the masses of war refugees absorbed by democratic dispensation  from the polio-afflicted African states to the north, and poor water supplies, sanitation and nutrition,   in so many areas in the northern provinces, despite mass polio vaccination. . In Cape Town’s poorer  areas’  clinics, we see almost as many foreign pan-African refugees as we do local black Africans.

VITAMIN C & D AGAINST POLIO: but as with flu, HIV, TB and likely all infections, the rescue remedy that the Disease Industry  firmly ignores  is freely available also against polio (and all other infections –  as shown so successfully by Dr Fred Klenner after WW2 with highdose vitamin C);  and at least two  published studies  in modern times ie on Pubmed (FDA- Ivanov 2006 USA)  shows the predictable enhancement by vitamin D3 as an adjuvant  of immune response to vaccine against  poliovirus- presaged by a 1949 paper from Foster ea Univ Pennsylvania . .

15 June 2014 new case reported in the 23nd country – Bangladesh, arrived from USA via Abu Dhabi airport. But now disproven. CRUCIAL EFFECTIVE VITAMIN D3 DOSING: TRIALS USING SUBOPTIMAL VIT D DOSES AND LEVELS ARE MISLEADING:            A major new  metaanalysis of the benefit of Vitamin D and Respiratory Tract Infections VIDARIS in PLOS 2013  by Sweden’s Karolinska  Institute Bergman ea showed that in the 11 relevant trials (published between 2007 and 2012 ie done through the first decade of this century) using vit D3, “Overall, vitamin D showed a protective effect against RTI (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.84). And the average vit D level at baseline was only 24ng/ml, but with the mediocre  vit D3 doses used then  of average 2000iu/d (300 – 4000iu/day) given for between 7wks and 3 yrs, the average bloodlevel achieved on replacement was only 50% higher at 36ng/ml”.      This confirms more direct experience  with higher doses that blood level increment, and benefit,  is proportionate to vit D3 dose, at least up to the proven speculative  safe upper dose of at least 10 000iu/day (whereas the proven safe longterm daily dose is> 50 000iu/day). “More important, the protective effect was larger in studies using once-daily dosing compared to eg monthly  bolus doses (OR = 0.51 vs OR=0.86, p = 0.01)”. This concurs with our experience of major benefit  against respiratory infection that is  based on published studies giving a loading month’s dose of about 80-100 iu/kg/day  ie ~3000iu/kg; then that monthly dose split conservatively eg 50 000iu every week or two depending on mass, and severity of ill-health; to a more successful blood-level of 60 to 100ng/ml. Similarly, the  2014 VIDA trial   across USA-    Effect of Vitamin D3 on Asthma Treatment Failures in Adults With Symptomatic Asthma and Lower Vitamin D Level, Castro ea,  showed “Vitamin D3 for 28 weeks did not reduce the rate of first treatment failure or exacerbation in adults with persistent asthma and vitamin D insufficiency. These findings do not support a strategy of therapeutic vitamin D3 supplementation in patients with symptomatic asthmaBut this trial had the same severe limitation as the Swedish metanalysis of vit D3 benefit- it also used only 4000iu/d. “While all were vitamin D insufficient ie below 30 ng/ ml  before the trial and half were deficient with levels below 20 ng/mL, supplementation brought levels above the 30 ng/mL threshold for 82% in that group – mean levels were 41.8 ng/mL at week 28 in the supplement group, while the mean stayed in the deficient range for those who got placebo. ”  So 4000iu/day merely doubled the bloodlevel to only about 40ng/ml – only about half of the putative optimal dose.  These recent studies force us to conclude that bad weather, and  bad prevalent respiratory viruses,  and especially with major acute, or chronic illness as in those with or at risk of serious infections eg major trauma or sepsis,   MERS-CoV, Ebola, malaria, cholera, cancer, diabetics, smokers, asthmatics, bronchitics,   AIDS-TB., pneumonia and old age  sufferers, and especially hospital, laboratory  and clinic- health workers-  we should for an average 70kg adult give a loading dose of about 4000iu/kg, ie 300 000iu, then 10 000 iu/d,  or 50 000iu every 5 days, or more simply 75 000iu (about 1.5ml of 100cws vit D3 powder) weekly; or at a stretch, 300000 if not 400 000iu monthly. . As  the common  imported vit D3 powder concentrate  is 100 oooiu / Gm ie per 2 ml, it is simple to take the slightly sweetish powder up to  2 or more 4 ml teaspoons ie 200 000  -400 000 iu on the tongue.    The majority of residents of developed countries now live urbanised with mechanized transport, and – especially in Muslim or cold countries-  dont  live and work / walk  all day stripped in the sun. The poor malnourished  peasants  live crowded in ghettoes , and  the poorest are generally the darker skinned and therefore make the least vitamin D3. So with rare exceptions, everyone needs the vigorous vitamin D 3 doses discussed above. But at the prevalent bulk vit D3  powder price of  at most about  US$0,o2 per 100 ooo iu, at a mean population age of around 20 to 25 yrs -outside  Europe- it would cost a country of eg 50 million people perhaps $o.5 per head per  year ie conservatively $25 million a year to prevent > 90% of common illnesses including drugging and violence consequences.  Of course no government can tolerate  such massive loss of jobs and taxes  in a decimated disease industry that now turns over $ trillions annually – up to 18 % of national budgets.     So it’s up to individual adults, especially householders, educators and employees ,  to see that the cheapest cure-all  after clean water – vitamin D3 – at $2/citizen per year-  is recommended and freely available.

13 June 2014 KSA now has apparently reported 702 cases, 292 deaths ie 14 more cases, 12 more deaths in past 11 days.. worldwide 826 cases, 326 deaths. And a new multinational vitamin D study  confirms why vitamin D3 not D2 must be given. TIME TO SWOP FROM MISNAMED  “STRONG CALCIFEROL” VIT D2 TO THE REAL VIT  D3. 6 June 2014   on the 10th anniversary of the SARS epidemic , a new 2013 review (by Japanese epidemiologists) Remembering SARS-CoV: A Deadly Puzzle and the Efforts to Solve It brings home the lessons, the similarities between the two recent killer coronavirus outbreaks, in both outbreaks affecting only residents of closed communities (Arabia and China respectively), with carriage of the virus by travelers into their closed kin communities elsewhere. .  Especially the problems of hospital confinement, and superspreaders.          Sun-blocking culture among the Chinese whereever they live in their ethnic communities is also stressed in modern literature. Lu et al 2012 show very high levels of vitamin D deficiency in Shanghai. The  obvious lesson of the past decades was not noted then or now- prevention is better than cure, as in AIDS and pneumonia and all other infections, simply by superboosting the immune boosters within sensible limits –  sunshine/vitamin D3 and C, zinc, iodine, selenium; and for the likely deficient, appropriate iron .. 4 June 2014. Saudi Arabia reports confirm they have indeed  uncovered many more cases, as tabulated by the Wiki report yesterday- 689 cases, 283 deaths. Shane Granger in his Random Analytics concurs. The graph by the KSA authorities shows that most of the unreported cases reputedly occurred from March through to the first week of May, and that that outbreak is almost over, down from a peak of over 100 cases a week ie at the end of their winter- when vitamin D levels are at their lowest-  to about 25 cases a week. .They do not say when the excess MERS-related deaths occurred. Who knows how many more cases and deaths are underreported from the KSA, when the annual Hajj is imminent, and religious tourism is a vast industry for the KSA. This  MERS outbreak is in contrast to  the 8200 recorded case SARS (coronavirus) outbreak of 2002/3 in China, S.E.Asia, (Canada and USA)  and sparsely across Europe – but only 1/4 of the MERS’ ie  9.6% mortality . Just one case was recorded in the middle east and Africa- in Kuwait. Although the SARS and MERS  viruses were traced through mammals to bats, the affected populations were genetically  different-  Chinese  versus Arabic ie Caucasian. But a decade after the SARS outbreak, Chinese in Shanghai also had 85% below the vit D insufficiency threshold (30ng/ml) at the end of winter.  An International Osteoporosis Foundation study of 2009 showed very high prevalence of vit D insufficiency throughout Asia including China- but worse in Malays. Thus the susceptibility to and mortality from SARS and MERS  in the respective races- like Swine flu susceptibility in the frail in USA and Mexico in 2009 and anywhere since-   is likely due like any disease to the combination of both socioeconomic  burden, genes and sunshine vitamin deficiency. But whereas socioeconomics;  genes; and ethnic taboo on sun exposure as in strict Muslims,  are not easily correctable,  traditional micronutrient deficiency is- especially vigorous vitamin and mineral  supplements, without offending cultural taboos.                                                                  

3 June 2014 update :   In the past 5 days, Google websites  reported 2 new  cases/d in KSA.  BUT Wikipedia this evening reports the latest collation: in KSA, 688 cases with 282 deaths ie 41% mortality; this is far higher than in its close 7 Arab neighbours  including Iran, with a total of only  89 cases but only 26% mortality. If these figures are accurate, there have apparently been 125 cases in KSA since 29 May ie 25 new cases/day there; but 96 deaths ie 19 per day. But this gross epidemic has not been reported on Google, so hopefully the Wiki MERS tabulation will be corrected- unless it because the KSA was not announcing cases. .  Apart from the 8 Middle East nations counted above, the Wiki  figures for the outside 16 countries in the rest of the world  – 25 cases,  7 deaths ie 28% mortality, are more consistent with reports to date outside KSA, and moderately lower than  the fatality rate reported in KSA . All MERS- confirmed cases were contracted in the Arabian peninsula (or from travelers from there). All adults  in the KSA including visitors  would by edict be  almost totally robed  when  outdoors, the women also with hijab. On the other hand,   observant pilgrims from non Arab countries are more likely both older-  having chronic degenerative diseases ie more vulnerable- , but  likely  get more sunshine skin exposure at home,   and taking protective supplements before and after; thus possibly explaining  the lower mortality and low  prevalence of carriage of MERS outside Arabia.  The average  Saudi Arabian is aged around 20years, but  the young there presumably  face the same policy   against skin sun exposure,  and apparently against protective micronutrient supplements. 31 May 2014  Mers update   the past 2 days just one new case in Saudi Arabia, but 2 cases in Algeria back from KSA  the 21st country ; and now a total of 6 cases in Iran with 1 death.

29 May 2014: The 26 May Cape Town suspect’s  deep nasopharyngeal swab screens  have proved negative for Influenza A eg swine flu, and MERSCoV, and she is recovering. . The NICD says they have perhaps  5 requests for screening in returnees from KSA, all negative for MERS CoV. KSA reports 3 new cases past 48hrs ,  while of recent screened cases there, 4 more  have recovered and gone negative. ie  565 cases , but 6 more deaths ie 186 died –  33%;                Worldwide  thus at least 680 cases / 215 died. But apart from KSA and Jordan (5/10 died= 55%) the fatality rate in the other 19 countries reported is thus  also 22.6%, as low as 13% mortality in UAE if their figures are to be believed.  The problem is we dont know how many subjects were screened in each country to get the perspective.. Perhaps UAE simply screened many more ‘well’ people with “flu’. of recent cases reported from countries outside Arabia, virtually all presented clinically with serious URTI.  Only 2 MERS-COV cases have been finally confirmed in USA, both travelers back from KSA. Thus it is apparent from all the screening patchily reported  the past 2 years that:                                                                                                                                                          1. air/physical contact  crossinfection between humans (as between camels and humans)  is common; 2. but resultant  actual colonization (ie the asymptomatic MERS CoV carrier- akin to say the common staph nasal carrier)  is reassuringly low- likely in mildly immunocompetent people with suboptimal   vigorous eg vit D3 levels and intake of vits C, zinc etc; and  cleared naturally within days; 3. BUT of those colonized with  invasive MERS CoV  who actually present sick enough-ie with MERS–  (generally those with  comorbidities) to consult doctors, mortality may be > 50% (as eg in KSA,  Jordan, Qatar, UK) – likely because they have poorly controlled diabetes, HIV, heart/lung/kidney disease;  or very low vit D3 levels and very low intake of vit C, zinc etc. 4. So far survivors of MERS  apparently do not stay carriers of the virus. These observations will be simple to affirm/ refute by storing, or immediately testing, all carriers’ and cases’ blood  for 25OH vit D3 (albeit expensive)  as well as the other obvious markers  . But it is harmless and virtually cost-free to treat all such people anyway with vigorous vits D3, C and zinc against all latent/patent  diseases. Parallel experience with seasonal flu/ common colds  is that while the URTI  may have been protracted till the patients consult, virtually all cases quickly resolve with vigorous supplements (vits C, D3, iodine, multivite,  appropriate iron, and appropriate decongestants/ “vix” steaming. And of course it is simple and appropriate to deep-sniff pure vit C + D3 powder- as easy as using a nasal sprayer. .                                                                                                                         27 May 2014  Jordan reports  a  fresh (10th) case;      KSA  now 562 cases –no new cases, but one  more death;   national  school exams start there irrespective.. so global total now may be 650..now   2 in Iran. – – the 21st country?. Its not to say that >650 people have caught the illness,  since apart from 30% who died of MERS , at least 20% were well, found only on viral swabs of contacts, ie by definition did not have the MERSyndrome that has killed 30%.. The  global  authorities have not revealed how many of the balance of 50% of those who screened positive actually developed any flu-like symptoms, as opposed to those who survived pneumonia & renal failure. Vigilance is necessary everywhere since both seasonal (H1N1) flu is spreading in the southern hemisphere, and MERS from Arabia with the recent peak there, and business, social and umrah travelers pouring through the Middle East  hubs- especially to and from the worldwide Muslim diaspora , and trade hubs, . . “If you get sick within 14 days of being in the Arabian Peninsula, call a doctor and tell the doctor where you traveled.” said an NBC report earlier this month. 26 May 2041 Our  first ‘ground zero’ MERS suspect returnee from Riyadh  today screened in Cape Town?:  after a weekend with  my own flu attending a 3day medical congress here, and bad family news last night, I was caught flatfooted this morning at a  walk-in local family practice clinic full of people with sudden flu/gastro gripes: the first lady  in (robust, no chronic illness)   with usual sudden  overnight flu   had after two weeks visiting her family in KSA, jetted back from there   just two weeks ago, having sat  behind a man coughing and spluttering.               Before starting highdose  supplements etc, she was  deep nasopharyngeal swabbed for flu and MERS  exam  by our South African National Institute for Communicable  Disease.  Then we will,  if she/her family prove positive,  contact the airline to start tracing all passengers and contacts here. She is hardly in the  risk category that has rocked the KSA. We dont know yet about her flight fellows..

25 May 2014:  HOPEFULLY THE MERS SURGE IN KSA IS OVER?      latest  cumulative Saudi reports are of  ~558 MERS cases in KSA,   179 deaths ie ~7 new cases detected a day (none elsewhere) . Thus in the 3 weeks since 3 May, unverified reports mainly from middle east websites  are of about 101 new cases ie about 5 new cases a day, and 42 deaths in KSA   ie 2/day– ~40% mortality. The rate of new cases presenting and being detected is down, but with the incubation time-lag (5 to 14 days till illness if any),  assuming that all sick citizens are  promptly tested, the mortality rate will fall next week from its peak a week ago.  Tightening protective measures in the KSA  and no doubt  in all global air-hubs outside KSA are hopefully working- there has apparently not been another reported cases outside KSA the past week. 96% of all cases detected have been in KSA & UAE, with 90% of deaths from MERS being  in detected cases there. The lack of new cases reported elsewhere suggests that the global figures are now about 641 cases and 208 deaths ie about 32% mortality. .

22 May 2014 update:    in KSA   544 cases, 176 deaths  ie  so far 18 cases/million, 32% mortality;    UAE 7/million;    worldwide 661 cases,  207 deaths  ie 32% globally. But excluding KSA and UAE, the occurrence of MERS  in the rest of the world – including most of the >billion Muslims-  has been 50 cases ie Ian Mackay points out, the trend in new cases in KSA is downwards the past month. The common denominator in KSA appears to be  that especially city Muslim women there must be virtually totally  covered when outdoors in public view.. But as noted earlier in this column, repeated university studies there by their own specialists have shown that their people are especially vulnerable to vitamins D and C deficiency, so easily correctable , a testable hypothesis at trivial cost? This perhaps easily controllable plague  is surely an unintended consequence for  one of the most highly learned and religiously devout peoples in the world? Is the  epidemic growing solely  in the KSA because by strict custom, Saudi Arabian residents (and their pilgrim   visitors-who also are likely  ultraobservant)   have  to  cover up maximally, Dress to Kill? In the rest of the Arabian peninsula the MERS incidence rate is only a fraction? although the deathrate is similar.

19 May 2014 update:  KSA toll now  537 cases / 173 deaths  ie 31% mortality. The total there was inflated by 19 patients in the Jeddah  dialysis unit contracting MERS some time recently. It remains to be disclosed  how many of these cases were diabetic, were on vigorous vits C/D supplements, and died? The global figures are now 620 cases tested positive and 202 deaths.

17 May  2014 including a 3rd case (by direct contagion from a newly arrived traveler) in USA, there are  now  about 650 MERS cases reported  worldwide, 200 deaths ie 32%  fatalities;   14 new cases daily globally  the past 3 days;   KSA  529  cases   168 deaths (ie 11 new cases  a day; and 16  deaths the past 3 days). But 96% of all cases worldwide  to date  presented in the Arabian peninsula’s  80 million Arab population, and apparently   all 27 outside cases were exports from KSA or their immediate contacts. .. The Wiki entry  Tourism in KSA  states plainly :  “In December 2013, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to begin issuing tourist visas for the first time in its history.  Restrictions and security : Visas are only issued for business, relatives of Saudis, transit to a third country, and Muslim pilgrims; general tourism is not allowed.”   So effectively  in KSA cities  there are in public  only heavily-garbed  Muslims.  Apparently nownon-muslim tourists can visit the KSA in a group organized by an accredited agency”, obviously provided they conform to local religious norms. But “A limited tourist visa programme was cancelled in March 2014.[5]       Saudi Arabia does not currently issue a visa for tourist travel. Hence apparently the KSA population especially in the cities is  overwhelmingly  Muslims conforming to orthodox Wahhabi  Sunni outdoor   attire- although there are apparently  some 1 million christians (ie 1:30 of the population -presumably mostly professional/technician experts- in the big cities) in the KSA. Apparently there are over a million camels in the KSA,  (apparently nearly 25million worldwide) with a lifespan akin to humans. “Camels  come from neighboring Middle Eastern countries, in part, but also from countries in eastern Africa, including such already beleaguered places as Sudan and Somalia, Nigeria, Tunisia, Ethiopia.     Just now online, not scheduled for formal publishing until this summer, is a brand-new CDC report  finding widespread evidence of MERS-CoV in African dromedary camels too.” With the dromedary  numbers (at least 1 per 30 Saudi  citizens), camels’ huge stamina ie resistance to disease, including apparently the MERS virus they carry,  their cherished role including as pets, meat, transport, racingstock,  and supply of fresh warm milk  in KSA society; and  the reported low human vitamin D (and perhaps C) levels in the heavily-garbed city  citizens,  no wonder camels  are an ongoing source  of the hitherto unknown MERS coronavirus illness for immunodepleted citizens in KSA? whereas the camels themselves apparently suffer no more than a mild cold. A  respiratory virus infection in a temperate climate is usually easily thrown off with symptomatic Rx, supplements and plenty of fluids; but on the other hand, in  middle east desert  temperatures and in all-over robes, hyperthermia and dehydration from MERS  may more obvious cause of pneumonia and  (pre)renal failure- especially in a population with high rate of sickle cell, diabetic, overweight, cardiovascular and hypertensive disease. Average temperature  are about 29-330C ie mean peaks of 40C; with humidity  17% in Riyadh & Medina, but much higher in Jeddah;  intermediate in Mecca..

And “Middle Eastern countries import tens of thousands of camels from eastern Africa annually. Many Saudi camels are imported. Scientists don’t yet know where the MERS virus originated or how camels got it, but it has been found in African countries and as far away as Spain’s Canary Islands, where a tiny population of camels lives for the past 400 years .        ” Camels in the kingdom are like dairy cows, beef cows, racehorses, pulling horses, beloved Labradors, and living daily reminders of holy scripture, all in one. (Camels appear, honorably, in the Quran.)” As the latest report from Pulitzer Centre Prof Cynthia Gorney’s Nat Geographic account of MERS ends, “Fresh warm camels milk straight from the udder is “Very heavy, very sweet, very therapeutic” Ameer said, after I stopped shouting at him over the phone.  If I were still in Saudi Arabia at this moment, I told him, I would be smacking him upside the head.”  What likely gave Ameer his claimed  immunity? that he had been years in USA?, and like Arabian desert camel-keepers probably  lightly clothed and much in the sun- thus with good vitamin D levels?

A new report today from WHO chillingly details a party of at least 9  Umrah pilgrims since April 2014 who  from Jeddah visited Mecca and Medina  and then back via Jeddah to Amsterdam, Greece and USA with developing MERS – from the Jeddah sub-clade which has been identified in at least 30 cases there.. These linkages do not explain why the MERS outbreak has mushroomed solely in KSA residents – not in Muslim communities outside Arabia into which travelers flying home via Jeddah  have imported the virus. The co-factor may be that, having inhaled/ingested  the virus from human carriers in the KSA, these foreign travelers, often with co-morbidities, were also more vulnerable to the MERS virus because of their adherence to the same  all-over dress orthodoxy, and dietary vitamins D & C and perhaps zinc depletion  (with or without sickle cell trait) as has been reported prevalent in the KSA; and detailed with references below. A study is awaited of comparative skin shade,  diet and skin sunshine exposure (ie degree of conformance to strict Sharia covering) between Saudi Arabians of longterm Arab descent, and their relatives and  similarly conforming co-religionists in the distant diaspora Muslim overseas communities  that send Umrah and Hajj  pilgrims through Jeddah to Mecca and the other shrines. A current  wiki-islam website stresses the serious health hazards (both skeletal- rickets and osteoporosis – and across all system diseases including immune-infection- protection) of full-cover Islamic ie hijab dress through sunlight vitamin D deficiency, unless vigorous vitamin D supplement is taken.  It is no surprise that this is as much of a danger for hijab Muslims  in high-sunshine desert latitudes as in bleak low-sunshine cities far north.. This might explain why the latest WHO population statistics (perhaps 2011 ie before the MERS outbreak) show that – despite being perhaps  the richest  per-capita nation (from oil reserves)  in the world,- the KSA has expected survival age 5 years below that of UK, especially from combined (hypertension-diabetes-coronary heart- kidney ) disease rate of 375 in KSA vs eg 80 in UK. But even then, a different WHO website showed flu and pneumonia deathrate (before the MERS outbreak)  37 in hot, dry KSA ie 50% higher vs 23.7 in UK. and in about 2011, KSA had a mean population age of 20 years, with annual (agri-and seafood)  imports  ie dependence of US$17billion, due to its desert-limited agripotential; with predicted rapidly increasing urbanization .  It will cost pennies, and a few weeks’ followup of supplement dispensing to KSA citydwellers, (and incoming pilgrims before they leave their diaspora homes for the KSA),  of vigorous dose vitamins D3 +  C and a multisupplement including the other vitamins , magnesium, zinc,  iodine; and  fish oil and virgin coconut oil (ie a blanket antioxidant, antiinfection, antihypertensive  insulin-sensitizing umbrella supplement)  to confirm if the emerging epidemic of  MERS (let alone hypertension-heart-diabetes-kidney  disease)  in KSA  is significantly slowed, as  common infective and degenerative diseases  are here  in Cape Town, by such supplements. This simple prospective clinical monitoring of those receiving or not receiving  the swine flu vaccine in 2009 was universally recommended, but Authorities refused to enforce such simple monitoring, so there is  no clinical  evidence that the swine flu vaccine significantly reduced morbidity from the outbreak, which was globally statistically trivial except in the Mexican source outbreak. Similarly, there is no evidence that the spread of MERS-CoV  in KSA is epidemic considering that even in the four most densely populated cities – in the three abutting  midwest  provinces  – containing almost half the national population,  – the detected spread of MERS illness is still so low (except in the incubator hospitals). Even though camels are so widespread. it is intuitive that rural/desert citizens may take  both more fresh  (desert)  crops (ie vit C) and more  vit D- from both camel milk  and more sun exposure from  outdoor work with more skin exposure in such labourers. Some  pictures of camel attendants apparently in the KSA  on the internet  show bareheaded men in vests.  16 May 2014   the latest  KSA  stats reported are 515 cases, 160 deaths ie 30% mortality. Globally 621, deaths 189 14 May 2014  now ~592 cases reported in 20 countries – the latest in the Netherlands, and a 3rd case in USA;  with ~31% mortality (KSA 495 cases, 152 deaths ie 31%; with 20% asymptomatic). 12 May 2014:  USA reports a 2nd case arrives there. a 5th death with MERS has been reported in Jordan.  Saudi Arabia reports 8 new cases since yesterday, and 2 more deaths.   But  as expected, in the KSA eye of the storm , it appears that only contacts of  patients are being screened- at least 20% of patients who screen positive for the virus have remained well. So the morbidity and mortality% are in fact very skewed, they are apparently not screening the local population for carriers. The ~28% death rate refers only to deaths in the cohort that were afflicted  with MERS and their contacts.

11 May 2014  A new Reuters report today highlights the widespread intimate contact with camels in KSA. “Does the KSA want to control the uncontrollable?                                So far, the reported cases have all originated in Saudi Arabia or in the southeastern part of the Empty Quarter, in the UAE. There are no reports of those outside Saudi Arabia having transmitted the disease to others. the past week has seen another ~116cases  ~15 cases a day- reported in the Middle East, and another 34 deaths  there ie the total has reached ~578 cases (483 in KSA- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) and ~163 deaths (142 in KSA). So  the death rate has fallen  to  <28% overall.  Lebanon and USA  become the 18th/19th countries to report a case of  a returning traveler.  But virtually all  identified cases originated in the KSA neighbourhood. The latest figures show that MERS originated and breeds exclusively in the Middle East- (cases per million ppm the past 2 years) in 16 ppm in KSA(483 cases total), 6ppm in UAE (53 total),    3.5 ppm in Qatar(7  total)  and  1ppm or less  in Jordan (9 total- the first reported cases, in April 2012)) or elsewhere. Apart from the frequency of camels, and the high prevalence of deficiency of vitamin D and possibly vitamin C reported below, ethnic culture may play a major role:  In KSA, Qatar and UAE the great majority of citizens are Wahhabi Sunni muslims. By contrast, Yemen is only 65% Sunni, but  Oman is distinctly different Sharia culture. Iraq and Iran are predominantly Shia culture.

Jordan on the other hand is a unique  Hashemite culture although also  70% Sunni;  so contrary to the Wahhabi countries,  “ Jordan is one of the most liberal countries in the Middle East, with a secular government“. So the increasing prevalence of MERS in the Wahhabi Arabian peninsula peoples relates perhaps  to the likely cluster of predisposing factors:   well-covered male and especially female orthodox attire, if not also higher prevalence of sickle cell trait, and diet,  which is associated with deficiency of vits D, C, A and E as referenced below. Feminist Muslim websites may correctly argue that Hijab does not cause vitamin D deficiency;  but it likely contributes significantly to it’s spread via lowered vitamin D production in skin – with orthodox Muslim women arguing that such women can arrange private sunlight skin exposure. This trend to vitamin D deficiency from low oral   and sunlight-mediated  vitamin D is incidentally mirrored in  new studies:. :                                                            from  USA – The Vitamin D status of Prison Inmates– which confirmed that, on a ‘sufficient’  diet including vitamin D intake,  the higher the security isolation of inmates (and therefore least sun-exposed), the lower the vitamin D status- especially in the darkest-skinned inmates; from Israel   Effect of different dress style on vitamin D level in healthy young Orthodox and ultraOrthodox students in Israel; and in southern Italian nuns.

So vit D deficiency in MERS  may be like  in AIDS:  Vitamin D Deficiency in HIV: A Shadow on Long-Term Management)? (2014, London UK).  But vigorous vitamin D charge – by sunshine and especially vit D3 supplement- as an immune and anabolic booster is one of the safest and cheapest preventions of all disease that there is. With the Ramadan Hajj to the KSA this year only 6 weeks  away, intended pilgrims need to top up their vitamin D3 levels and multivites vigorously now, to boost both their infection resistance and improve control of all major diseases they have;  and take plenty of vitamin C with them.  So should  their communities, contacts  here as pilgrims return from the Hajj. SUNSHINE AND ORANGES: ANTIBIOTICs VITAMINS C AND  D like vitamin CVitamin D is hardly a new anti-infective agent as an Israeli study (Borella ea 2014) now confirms, since sunshine sanatoria were  the only effective treatment of tuberculosis in the pre-antibiotic era even after WW2; and ” An association has been established between low levels of vitamin D and upper respiratory and enteric infections, pneumonia, otitis media, Clostridium infections, vaginosis, urinary tract infections, sepsis, influenza, dengue, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and HIV infections“. Especially in this post-antibiotic age of rampant antibiotic resistance. Sunshine and Oranges – Empty Cradles-  is  ironically,  the account of Britain’s infamous ruthless  export- banishment to the Colonies -from the early to post WW2  20th C   of thousands of surplus children of poor or orphaned families. Shades of the forced transport of ‘felons’ to Devil’s Island and the British outposts of previous centuries.  Usually clad in scanty rags, in Australia  they certainly   had plenty of sunshine ie vitamin D , and  the abundant local oranges (vitamin C);  but like their surviving mothers, much grief and poverty – while from lack of these same nutrients, their kith and kin back in UK  were ailing with infections and rickets . .

3  May 2014  four months later:  MERS RESURGENCE: NOT A PANDEMIC BUT A DEFICIENCY SYNDROME? more precautions needed:  With the recent flareup of MERS Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome in the Gulf States, the number of reported cases since New year has more than doubled to 457 ie to >24 cases a week there, but still only in residents/ travelers from/through the Middle East hub, and their contacts;   in 17 countries including Europe, Egypt, Malaysia,  Philippines and now a traveler from Riyadh to USA.  The death toll has reached 133/457    ie the death rate  has  fallen steeply   from 42% last December to 29% overall, understandably as more cases are detected by screening in the source, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia KSA.   Wiki   and Reuters seem to give  the most update  (if not WHO-confirmed) stats. So the evidence so far is that, while camels are endemic carriers there,  most  recent sick cases have apparently been been traceable  human to human transmission – apparently all among Muslims, and in the malnourished or chronically ill older, and  health workers as in the case just reported in USA.      So there is no apparent spread by other vectors eg bird and farmyard swine as in the case of influenza. Since the reports available indicate that the MERS virus is dangerous only in those already malnourished or with serious other systemic disease, it is like flu-  pretty harmless in the well adequately nourished and housed. While frequent flyers are generally well off and well nourished, the same cannot be said for those in virtual ghetto  slavery all over the world, eg migrant labourers  working on contract  in the Gulf States, who have apparently been among the latest victims . So as with the overblown Swine Flu non-pandemic of 2009, there is no good evidence to label MERS  a deadly epidemic, it in fact seems to have low cross-infectivity compared to say influenza which spreads like wildfire- but with no more morbidity (except in Muslims?) than the common cold corona viruses.

WHY IS MERS  LIMITED OVERWHELMINGLY TO AND SPREADING ONLY IN THE KSA and UAE?  is it a unique genetic trait of Saudis?  or is it micromalnutrition unique to this  ultra-orthodox Muslim nation with unique almost total skin coverup outdoors? why was there no outbreak of MERS in the millions of pilgrims who did the Hadj to the KSA last year?   the KSA is 100% muslim, whereas the UAE only 76%, with far more foreigners working and living there. It is common cause that peoples who keep well covered during daylight hours – as ultraobservant Muslim (and ultra-orthodox Jewish)  women and  men do, have much lower vitamin D levels. Those on restricted diets are also more prone to malnutrition including vit D deficiency, especially if low in dairy products. Common sense perhaps explains  why Saudis – in the heart of Islam (Mecca, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tobuk) have low vitamin D and likely also low vitamin C and zinc levels, and thus more infections. Moderate to severe vitamin D deficiency was reported prevalent  last year in Saudis by Al-Daghri,  Sabico  ea  from King Saud University Riyadh- where Hasanato in 2006 reported low vitamins A, C and E and zinc levels in severe sickle cell disease. El-Hazmi ea  from the Saudi College of Medicine also in 2011 reported that Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have the highest prevalence of sickle cell genes in the Middle East,  at up to 18%. Bahrain has just opened a sickle cell hospital, but Bahrain has the tiniest population (1.3million) of the Gulf States although the highest population density, compared to the 38million of the KSA plus the UAE which have had over 90% of MERS cases. Most if not all the camels in Bahrain are in a zoo; whereas in the KSA camels are a favourite if not sacred possession and listed first as the  domestic animal. So the absence of MERS in Bahrain is unsurprising.

The UAE on the other hand also has many camels as entertainment if not also for travel – with 5000 camels entered in a beauty contest there alone.. So, despite long days ie much sunshine exposure in Arabia, low  fresh water availability likely reduces hygiene  (washing and oral hydration) capacity for the masses let alone camels.  And the well-covered dress code, and low availability of private sun-exposed balconies and courtyards  (unlike apparently more liberal Muslim countries) mean that the Saudi masses do not have the opportunity to get much-needed sun exposure to even the face, neck and limbs let alone the torso.

        Hence Saudis have as obvious  major risk factors for MERS  -not just the teeming MERS reservoir in their valued  camels (also a staple   milk supply), but more importantly endemic deficiency of vitamins C, D (and perhaps E, zinc) and water compared to relatively less clothed populations in other  hot but also better water-supplied  countries that also do not carry much sickle cell disease.

Camel meat is apparently no longer a staple in the KSA where staples now include Bread, hummus, rice, and  Tabbouleha “salad” generally made of parsley, bulgur, tomatoes, garlic, and lemon; Kapsa: the national dish is chicken and rice with vegetables; and Kebab:  a base of roasted lamb or chicken and vegetables in pita bread. There seems  little vitamin D in that varied diet, especially not pita bread or rice.

      The only good unfortified and unprocessed food sources of vitamin D are apparently oily fish,  liver, mushrooms, and (if fortified),  egg yolk and dairy products ; or else vitamin D3 supplements. ..

Finally, it is common cause from published studies and our local experience that infections eg HI, TB,  influenza,  herpes  and the common (Corona virus) cold are easily treated and prevented by vigorous safe intake of vits C & D combined with the other multivites, zinc, iodine, iron and selenium. In advanced infection cases of eg HIV and TB (in trials  from Central Africa and Canada), combining even modest doses of just 2 or 3 of these supplements with appropriate antivirals and antibiotics reduced dreadful morbidity and mortality by two-thirds. NATURAL PREVENTION/TREATMENT: with the theoretical double peril of influenza and MERS-   (ie as with the looming  Influenza A gastro-/respiratory season in the southern hemisphere),  with no proven  vaccines or antivirals reported or likely, those in contact with Middle East travelers- or any infection eg flu  outbreak- are again reminded to boost their immunity  and global health with safe effective lowcost NUTRITIONAL ANTIINFECTIVE supplements: 1.VITAMIN D3 CHOLECALCIFEROL 2500-4000iu/kg/month  (not the weak  vit D2 ergocalciferol  falsely labelled  “Strong” Calciferol tabs) most simply taken as a few scoops ie 50 000 to 250 000iu of vit D3 powder/MONTH at all ages (AND IDEALLY target BLOOD- LEVEL 80-100ng/ml depending on overall illhealth state. IT IS VIT D3 THAT IS STRONG CALCIFEROL, NOT VIT D2, since experts report that vit D3 is apparently four times more potent than D2. 2. MULTIVITES with zinc selenium and iodine (and iron for likely deficient eg kids, young women), but  especially 3.  buffered VITAMIN C ASCORBATE  at least 3gm/d orally ( if not with bad infection symptoms – 10 or >30gms / day if not ivi)  at trivial cost as powder;  to tolerance; 4. with eg  ecchinacea, melatonin, garlic, colloidal silver, sutherlandia and whatever other antiviral available locally. Since flu and colds disrupt both sleep and outdoor activity, nothing makes as much sense as co-supplementing both of the day and night hormones melatonin and vitamin D; as well as the other sunshine vitamin- ascorbic acid (solar-produced in abundance in  eg fruit) – to improve both sleep, rest and immunity. For small kids/infants the vitamins and minerals can simply be taken as powder in liquid ie in feeding bottle or a  glass. It is increasingly notorious how depleted modern breastfeeding mothers (on the industrial polluted fructose-sucrose-  aspartame PUFA-antibiotic-hormone-glyophos- GMO laden  food chain now prevalent)  and baby formulae  (unlike colostrum from pasture-fed eg New Zealand dairies) are in such lifesaving  immune and anabolic anticancer  boosters.

Ironically,  recently  Prof Zahid Naeem ea from the KSA Qassim University publicised in their university International Jnl of Health Science   Vitamin D Deficiency- An Ignored Epidemic in 2010  and 2012  , with prevalence there of up to 80% in the KSA despite the abundant sunshine, thus urging vitamin D supplementation. . But such simple prevention – of all disease but especially wished-for megaprofit  pandemics like flu and HIV-  is anathema to the multinational Big Pharma and their lobbyists in the global Disease Industry, which employs millions worldwide and generates trillions in income for government and corporates. Prevention does not pay. Simple prevention suits no-one working in the disease  and drug and hospital industry since it makes most health workers especially doctors and administrators and hospital  largely redundant. It seems that public health officials choose to go on ignoring the deficiency epidemic even in the KSA- unlike Dubai, there is no website of the KSA Govt promoting vitamin D supplementation.  The solution is too cheap – and embarrassingly simple.  An anonymous blogger details the numerous reasons for endemic vitamin D deficiency in especially the Gulf States.. at least the Dubai Govt publicises the deficiency, and supplementation. Is it irony, or an indictment of the prevailing world-wide largely male-dominated -subservient female culture,   that already back in 2001, there were strong warnings about Niqabs and Burqas as Impediments to Health? already in 2012, dairies in the UAE were fortifying milk with vitamin D; and in 2001 academics published a study showing the many reasons for prevalent vitamin D deficiency in the KSA. and Prof Mike Holick  in 2010 published an authoritative review  The Vitamin D Deficiency Pandemic: a Forgotten Hormone Important for Health urging vigorous vitamin D supplementation universally. As detailed elsewhere in this column last year,  the prophet of vitamin D and melatonin  the late Prof Walter Stumpf must be shaking his head repeatedly along with  the late Prof Linus Pauling, about the neglect of authorities  to promote and distribute vigorous supplements of vitamin C and D3 to the afflicted Arabian peoples let alone worldwide. But then we need to be reminded of the infamous Vitamin Murders, how Prof Sir Jack Drummond was mysteriously murdered with his family on holiday in France in 1952, when he and Linus Pauling were  the  leading vitamin discoverers and promoters  of the 20th century (as Walter Stumpf was of melatonin and vitamin D). The Big Pharma Disease Industry combined with the might of the FBI  and the FD  could never shut Pauling up;  but by whom and why the Drummonds were murdered remains unsolved, thus fertile conspiracy theory. Reading Drummond’s papers on the internet, one can understand why the burgeoning patent drug industry then as now hated natural lowcost unpatentable remedies, unbeatable natural safe  antiinfective agents like vits C and D and iodine – each almost universal panaceas. . .

This universal truth about industry suppressing  natural remedies  is the Semmelweis Paradox, that had the leading obstetrician of his day murdered in his prime by his jealous rivals.

27 Dec 2013  the outbreak not over:  9 new cases;   ie overall deathrate 42%, but past 2 weeks  4.5 cases a week just from the KSA..  :  Since April 2012, the European Centre reports  175 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 73 deaths, of acute respiratory disease caused by Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), have been reported by national health authorities.  27 December,  Saudi Arabia confirmed nine cases (five asymptomatic healthcare workers and four patients suffering from chronic disease, two of whom had died).  24 Dec 2013 the score now stands at 166  (163 at 16 Dec)  cases and 71 fatalities- 42% –   in 18  months since the first identified case in June 2012; ie per week – 2  new cases and 1 fatality .  No pandemic. No outbreak. Considering the duration of the awareness  of the new virus in humans- apparently from bats/camels/swine,  even after 18 months of millions of pilgrims visiting the Middle East, and far more foreign travelers flying through those hubs, and intensive surveillance on those routes east and west,   the morbidity and mortality have been negligible with only a handful of perhaps related deaths in frail patients. Whether as with seasonal avian  ie H1N1 flu from China to the West and south there will be a flareup of MERS-CoV cases  in the pending winter from now on  in the Middle East, remains to be seen..

12 November 2013   Considering that the Hajj has just ended with millions of pilgrims returning home,  and vast numbers of multinational passengers transit through the Middle East hubs, its reassuring  that (depending on which reports are duplicates and delayed) only 3 or 5  tested positive cases and 1 or 2  deaths have been reported the past week:    especially since only serious flu-like cases are likely to be tested- but more so in the affluent who can afford to fly.   So far no reports of MERS-CoV case are apparent in South Africa, although flu-like illness remains  common here. Perhaps more people are heeding warnings to take multivites plus zinc plus vigorous vits C and D. The ECDC    and  OSAP  and NowNews  and GlobalAlert report   As of  11 November 2013, there have been  at least 154 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS  CoV worldwide, including 65 deaths ie 42% in TESTED cases. All cases have either occurred in the Middle East or have had direct links to a primary case infected in the Middle East.        Saudi Arabia has reported  at least 125 symptomatic and asymptomatic cases including 53 deaths  Jordan two cases both of whom died   United Arab Emirates five cases, including one fatality Qatar five cases, including two deaths  and  Oman one case who has  just died.       Thirteen cases have been reported from outside the Middle East: inthe UK (4), France (2), Tunisia (3), Germany(2), Italy (1) and Spain (1). 31 Oct 2013 with the Hajj over, the latest score is 149 cases and 63 deaths ie 42%. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_10_31/en/index.html ie 5 new cases a week from the region, 30% deaths. http://gmggranger.wordpress.com/2013/10/29/quikstats-mers-cov-in-the-arabian-peninsula-nov-2013/ 17 Oct 2013 with the Hajj in full swing, the latest tally is apparently 139 cases and 60 deaths.  So thats only 1 case  reported a week the past 4 weeks, and no deaths in that time.  Promising news, although we continue to see bad viral-like  respiratory-gastro infections in adults locally with the volatile weather.

20 Sept 2013 with below a month to go to the Hajj, the latest Quickstats are 135 cases confirmed, and 60 deaths ie 44% mortality- all new cases and deaths apparently in  KSA and the Gulf States. Thus in the past 7 weeks,  41 new cases have been reported ie 6  a week, all in the Gulf  States; with unaltered  mortality  (44%) apparently restricted to the chronically frail. This as the drastically variable  Cape Town weather alternates sunshine joy and freezing wet  snow or hail, with high prevalence of both respiratory and gastroenteritis attacks, sometimes with protracted debilitating bronchitis; how much of this is local seasonal colds- coronavirus– or  flu, orMERS-CoV,  or  the explosive Norwalk virus, is speculative and academic. Basically So What since management is symptomatic, and vigilant prevention  crucially effective with hygiene, home rest and multivites but especially highdose vits D3 up to 10 000 (100iu/kg)  iu/day or weekly equivalent plus  buffered vit C up to tolerance >100mg/kg/day, zinc, selenium and for the malnourished, iron; perhaps safe plant  immune boosters like sutherlandia, garlic etc; and avoidance of smoking, sugar and the likes-  boozing and sweetened soft drinks (fructose, aspartame,sucralose).

11 August 2013  OUT OF AFRICA?  no new cases of MERS-CoV have been reported the past week; but while camels (in Oman) are now also suspect hosts/ transmitters in the M E,  there is some evidence that the MERS virus has the closest virus match yet found to bat CoV  in South Africa. As a precaution, with upgrading of shrines in Mecca, KSA is actively reducing  overcrowding by Hajj visitors by 20%, and warning the frail  and elderly not to go this year. With the prevalent bad winter respiratory and gastroenteritis  infections at least around densely populated and polluted Gauteng and  KZ-Natal,  and especially the floral mountain kingdom of greater Cape Town-   all are encouraged to take vigorous doses of vitamins D3 and Superenhanced vitamin C with a broad multimineral-multivite –  extra vits A, E, B &   coQ10;  the minerals zinc,  selenium, iodine, colloidal  silver, (and iron in the young commonly at risk of deficiency);  probiotics ;  rooibos or buchu or green honey and lemon tea,  sutherlandia;  licorice, St John’s wort, garlic,  echinacea, olive leaf  etc;   including sniffing vitamin C ; and  if snotty rhinitis/sinus/bronchitis symptoms,  steaming with eucalyptus etc.. And during acute attacks especially of respiratory and gastro attacks,  avoid sugar,  fat,  dairy and wheat intake.

2 August 2013  The Hajj to Mecca this year is  in the third week of October.  While over 15 million (of the world’s ~1.5billion) Muslims visit Mecca – Umrah- annually, some 3 million pilgrims worldwide make the seasonal Hajj visit trip, with pro rata from South Africa  only 2000 (of our ~2.5million) apparently the quota of pilgrims allowed this year   by Saudi Arabia . But increasing numbers of frequent flyers of all nationalities and races to and from South Africa – Europe fly via the Gulf States  Emirates airline, if not commuting to work and visit family there – including professional sports teams for tournaments… So this week’s flood of warning bulletins  on the Gulf State respiratory infection outbreak are cause for urgent caution and prevention, perhaps grim news for those who fly that ME route, and their families and close associates and neighbourhoods. The 49% deathrate reported in the now 94 cases- 3 more reported  1 August  from KSA- so far from the MERS-CoV Corona Virus MiddleEast Respiratory Syndrome outbreak is alarming, that has spread the past 10 months  from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia KSA  and  the Gulf States  to Tunisia, Europe – France, Germany, Italy-  and UK . It is now being recognized as distinct not just from the common cold coronavirus but also from the Chinese Severe Acute SARS-CoV virus outbreak since 2003, of which over 8000 cases have been recognized , but the latter virus having a fatality rate of only <10%; and the current violent but selflimited Norwalk virus  gastroenteritis (explosive vomiting and diarrhoea for 1 -3days;  (fatality rate <0.1%) raging in UK,  it recently is the commonest cause of foodborne infection in USA  .

No clinically effective vaccine or synthetic drug treatment has yet been found for these coronaviruses . The same lack of specific antiviral therapy applies against gastroenteritis viruses and influenza, but the mythical 2009 swine flu ‘pandemic’ was even milder (than some seasonal flu outbreaks) with a proven mortality rate far below 1% considering how rapidly far and widely it spread. The reservoir if any of MERS-CoV may  be cave bats, (and, ominously, perhaps swine – c/f the 2009 swine flu ‘pandemic’ that wasnt; shades of the deadly Nipah virus outbreak of 1999 – from bats to pigs to man).. But the fact that MERS-Co is spread human to human, and mainly men ,  has been attributed perhaps to women in strict sharia society being well veiled and thus shielded from inhaling (and transmitting) the air-born virus, never mind womens’ generally stronger immune systems and hygiene, self-care. So beware   all those in close contact with recent air-travelers through the ME states and surrounding subcontinent airports – never mind the S-E-Asia airhubs of Hong Kong and Singapore: it maybe  only a matter of weeks before cases occur on the other continents especially in city dwellers, public transport commuters, factory and office workers; and who knows, perhaps where bats and swine cohabit close to cities, as around South Africa.. .. Its cold comfort that the latest report  yesterday and today,  note that this stage is perhaps like SARS in 2002 and swine flu in 2009, the ‘bottom of the iceberg’, with only severe cases being admitted, tested, reported, in already chronically ill frail patients; especially diabetics and renal failure – to which older Muslims are particularly prone; while the virus spreads silently, mildly if not harmlessly  in the well majority, as in two young well  women health workers in contact with a chronically ill elderly female case in Riyadh, KSA … ANTI-INFECTIVE PROTECTANTS and advice are available from the Natural Remedies Centre, 15 Grove Bldg, Grove Ave, Claremont, Cape Town ph 002721-6831465 or -6717415: Fortunately  all Health Shops  are well stocked with the many  almost 100% protectants against serious infections including fungi bacteria and viruses – colds (ie corona-) and flu’-virus (let alone against all others) afforded by the basket of locally available (although mostly imported)  natural lowcost evidence-based  nutritionals – supplements  the past decades: safe  hefty combinations of a number of immune-boosting  vitamins, minerals and foods, herbs. This septuagenarian author has, touch wood, on this combination- increased at occasional  times of suspected colds-fever- , despite great stress, and flu ‘pandemics’, and avoiding vaccinations,     not had a bad infection lasting a day in the past 5 years despite working in the highest risk  poor townships and acute hospital clinics with rampant HIV – multiresistant TB cases .



for appointments for consultations,   or non-xray procedures by registered practitioners :  Sure Touch breast prescreening on  Saturday mornings next on  7 February 2015  by Sister Zeneath Ismail – cash R650 (then R450 if followup scan desired within 3 months);   -QUS  ultrasound quantitative bone density  cash R450 -tariff item 3612-  anytime;  Unlike radiologists’  and thermography reports (which describe only  the imaging finding), the rates quoted include relevant breast or bone consultation and management planning  by specialist nurse & physician.

IF BOOKED TOGETHER, (not necessarily the same morning) then combined breast and bone screening is R1000.

OTHER SERIOUS health problems ARE DEALT WITH BY CONSULTATION DURING THE WEEK (OR ON A DIFFERENT SATURDAY MORN) : heart- ECG,  fatigue, HRT, sexual health, hypertension, depression, memory/dementia, lung & lungfunction, anaemia-haematology; kidney/bladder/pelvic, hormone-endocrine, depression, osteoporosis, sleep, diabetes, thyroid, adrenal; cramp; skin,  infection including STDs & HIV/AIDs, stroke, epilepsy-neurology, dizziness, heartburn/digestive/liver,  neuropathy,  sexual health, menopause, HRT, genitourinary; immune problems, or arthritis relief;

Thermography no-touch infrared screening  for suspicious  cancer /inflammatory  changes:  by Radiographer Melinda-next 23 March 2015.   R900 breasts; R1100  head and  upper;  or lower body & pelvis;  R1300 whole body.

Bookings/queries contact Evelyn/ Reyhana / Val at  the Natural Medicine Clinic, 1st Floor no 15, Grove Medical Bldg, opp ABSA (parking ABSA Parkade )  near Warwick/Cavendish  Square Claremont Cape Town RSA, ph +27216831465 or a/h +2783 4385248 or reyhanadaya@yahoo.com  .

For the disabled – by arrangement  drive  up the ramp  to the Clinic door on the Grove Bldg 1st floor  parking deck.

Under CMS Council for Med Schemes Reg 10(6), open Medical schemes eg hospital plans  have to pay from their own funds (not members’ savings) for appropriate outpatient consultation (tariff item 0191) for  PMBs ie major conditions eg  cancer,   depression, neck/spinal problems, serious heart, lung, other disease., etc. Breast and osteoporosis concerns are generally part of menopause consultations N95.9   (if not already eg breast cancer code C50) and thus are often billable  med scheme benefits. The menopause billable item only applies if you are 45yrs upwards, unless you have had total hysterectomy.

On patients’ requests, appropriate invoice can be prepared and submitted to your scheme for refund of your due benefits. Some schemes eg hospital plans  falsely deny due benefits until reported to their regulator  CMS. For medical plans where the billable tariff benefit rate is higher than the breast screening fee paid, the med plan rate 0191  will be charged eg R790 by the contracted  specialist,  and refundable by Discovery to the member. some basic schemes eg Keycare, Bonitas require preauthorization, or referral by their contracted GP  .


neil.burman@gmail.com Cape Town

update 24 Feb 2914   Todays JAMA on-line- first prerelease article about  the current resurgence of Critically Ill Patients With Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Infection in 2014 laments its high deathrate  from acute respiratory and multiorgan failure adults in young adults,  and its guarded response to antiviral designer drugs like Tamiflu.   But it fails to mention vitamins and minerals, although these have dramatic benefit in both preventing infections, and treating flu,  AIDS and  TB.

Flu season: Vitamin D versus H1N1 Flu ,    Hormones Matter and Vit C cures H1N1  highlight the safety and efficacy of vigorous vitamin D  & C repletion, never mind when combined with other antimicrobial supplements like the other vitamins, and the minerals selenium, zinc, iron, iodine, and antimicrobial plant extracts like sutherlandia and  galega officinalis etc.

Guess which Big Pharma is the biggest manufacturer of vitamins in the world? Roche. and guess  which company makes Tamiflu?   Roche–  which refused to release the data from all of its trials, the adverse effects far exceeding its benefits.

But nutritional supplements are not patentable, so they are studiously ignored by the Disease Industry for whom only profit matters.

More about the lethal effect of deriding and suppressing good remedies under the-2014-virus-season-dawns-avoiding-the-semmelweis-reflex-natural-antibiotics-vitamins-c-d3-avoiding-vitamin-denialism –  The Semmelweis Reflex.

update 16 Feb 2014: it’s taken 5 years, but at last the fraud of  Big Pharma and the Regulators, Governments they support is being exposed in more depth:

the Swine Flu pandemic of 2009- set up by the Vaccine Industry paying vast bribes to world Regulators and Governments-  to promote the useless if not risky flu vaccine and Tamiflu drugs, is being confirmed and investigated, as reported by www.NaturalNews.com email newsletter: Even the science journals are now investigating the total scam of the WHO’s flu pandemic fear mongering. Here’s what you need to know: http://www.naturalnews.com/043932_Big_Pharma_World_Health_Organization_flu_scam.html 

and the wider Multiple Vaccine MMR fraud affecting especially infants and children (the gastroenteropathy- Autism link), that has been centre stage for 15 years, is analysed in detail by Dr Andrew Wakefield in his new book Callous Disregard.

Update 15 January 2010: current commentaries:                                                   Mary budinger@earthlink.netn is quoted as writing:

INQUIRIES GET UNDERWAY INTO CONFLICTS OF INTEREST Governments heeded warnings from the United Nations that there would be millions of deaths unless nations promptly proceeded with the controversial vaccination plan promoted by the UN’s entity for health matters, the WHO. With billions of dollars of unneeded inventory now going to waste, government leaders turned angry and started to demand hard answers.

Articles in the European press have repeatedly called into question the myriad ties between vaccine manufacturers and decision makers in the WHO.

The French opposition Socialist Party described that country’s national campaign as an “extravagant fiasco” and demanded a parliamentary investigation.

In early January 2010, the Council of Europe member states announced they are launching an inquiry into the influence of the pharmaceutical companies on the global swine flu campaign, focusing especially on extent of the drug industry’s influence on WHO. The text of the resolution says, in part, “In order to promote their patented drugs and vaccines against flu, pharmaceutical companies influenced scientists and official agencies, responsible for public health standards, to alarm governments worldwide and make them squander tight health resources for inefficient vaccine strategies and needlessly expose millions of healthy people to the risk of an unknown amount of side-effects of insufficiently tested vaccines. The ‘bird-flu’-campaign (2005/06) combined with the ‘swine-flu’-campaign seem to have caused a great deal of damage not only to some vaccinated patients and to public health-budgets, but to the credibility and accountability of important international health-agencies.”[1]

The WHO’s “false pandemic” flu campaign is “one of the greatest medicine scandals of the century,” according to Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, Chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. “The definition of an alarming pandemic must not be under the influence of drug-sellers,” he adds.

Wodarg, a doctor and former SPD member of the German Bundestag, says that the “false pandemic” campaign began last May in Mexico City, when a hundred or so “normal” reported influenza cases were declared to be the beginning of a threatening new pandemic, although there was little scientific evidence for this. Nevertheless the WHO, “in cooperation with some big pharmaceutical companies and their scientists, re-defined pandemics,” removing the statement that “an enormous amount of people have contracted the illness or died” from its existing definition and replacing it by stating simply that there has to be a virus, spreading beyond borders and to which people have no immunity.

These new standards forced politicians in most states to react immediately and sign marketing commitments for additional and new vaccines against swine flu, through “sealed contracts” under which orders are secured in advance and governments take almost all responsibility. “In this way, the producers of vaccines are sure of enormous gains without having any financial risks. So they just wait until WHO says ‘pandemic’ and activate the contracts,” says Dr. Wodarg.[1]

The Japanese health ministry announced it is launching an inquiry into deaths and side effects from the vaccine. Japan recorded 104 deaths, roughly 80 percent of whom are people aged 70 or older who had chronic diseases or disorders. Additionally, some 1,900 cases of side effects had been reported from medical institutions.

In the U.S., President Obama had decreed the H1N1 pandemic a national emergency, prompting some analysts to warn about increased governmental powers. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services had issued a “formal declaration of a Public Health Emergency” in April of 2009, even though there had only been 20 confirmed cases of the H1N1 virus.

To date, the U.S. has not followed in the footsteps of the Council of Europe.
[1] http://www.pharmatimes.com/WorldNews/article.aspx?id=17147

William Campbell Douglass II, M.D. writes:

How Big Pharma profits off fear            With Big Pharma raking in billions off swine flu fears, the last thing they need is a government handout.

Yet Uncle Sam is busy playing Daddy Warbucks with YOUR lunch money, helping Swiss drugmaker Novartis open a new vaccine plant in North Carolina. You’ve generously contributed around $700 million to help Novartis build their shiny new drug factory — $220 million three years ago, and $486 million this year.

And I’ll bet you didn’t even get a thank-you card.

In return for this bad investment in a foreign company, the U.S. government gets the right to PURCHASE vaccine for 17 years. Not only that, but these vaccines will be created using a new and unproven biotech method that relies on dog kidneys instead of chicken eggs.

In other words, this plan really is a dog.

I’m a doctor, not an economist. But if this is someone’s idea of stimulus, you do the math: The plant now employs 191 people making an average of $50,000 per year. At that rate, it would take around 75 years for the government money put into this joint to make its way back into our own economy.

Slice off a few years if you believe them when they say they’ll ultimately employ 350 people when the plant is fully operational in 2013 — in any case, it’ll be decades before Americans ever see that cash again.

But don’t worry — I’m sure somewhere, a poor Swiss ski resort is hosting a group of free-spending Novartis executives.

Maybe they’ll be joined by their yodeling friends at the World Health Organization. A report at World Net Daily says at least three of the WHO’s top flu “experts” have financial ties to vaccine makers.

That sure explains a lot.

Meanwhile, anyone who doubts that money is the real driving force behind swine flu fears only needs to check out Business Week magazine.

A recent headline there tells whole story by itself: “How Big Pharma Profits from Swine Flu.”

Careful there, Business Week. That kind of thinking would have gotten you branded a radical conspiracy theorist just a few months ago!

Just check out these big paydays off swine flu vaccine sales:
•  $1.7 billion for GlaxoSmithKline
•  $700 million for Novartis
•  $500 million for Sanofi-Aventis
Those figures are for the fourth quarter of 2009 alone — analysts expect them to grab similar piles of cash for the first quarter of 2010 as everyone from President Obama to Santa Claus push these needless vaccines on you and your children.

Business Week also notes that vaccine sales are booming just in time: Patents on prescription drugs worth a combined $135 billion in annual sales are about to expire… with no new meds ready to replace them.

And that means you can expect another phony swine flu scare any moment now.

Never feeding the flu fears”.

And tp://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/01/02/Harvard-Takes-it-Back-and-Says-Swine-Flu-was-Oversold.aspx

These need to be read in tandem with the other vaccine sagas:

Martin Walker’s ongoing expose of  The Drug Industry-GMC-NHS  vendetta  against Dr  Andrew Wakefield  for daring to question the benefits of mass vaccination of infants;

about the risks versus benefit of vaccinating pubertal boys and girls against cervix cancer;

and the mad search for an HIV vaccine against a disease which is in fact a sociological problem of  nutritional immunodeficiency upon which is superimposed sexual violence as in rape  or voluntary recklessness usually against (usually)  innocent partners – promiscuity   in multiple concurrent sexual relationships as currently promoted  by sexual predators  like Tiger Woods and the illegitimate and corrupt  South African “president” Jacob Zuma. .

UPDATE 16 December:

It is now 15  weeks since this column  expressed grave doubt about the cost-benefit of the touted anti-virals Tamiflu and Relenza .

All hell has broken loose over drug company fraud- which could only have happened in collusion with big politicians:

while Bayer and BMS Bristol-Myer Squibb are under heavy attack, and Pfizer paid a record $2.3billion fine to settle, and Novartis and Baxter are under the vaccine fraud microscope,

not only has proven  swine flu  mercifully fallen far below pandemic deathrate and sickness predictions,  while big batches of vaccine (GSK)  have had to be pulled due to serious complications even in Canada- and GSK directors /promoters too are under scrutiny;

but predictions about the fraud of massive anti-influenza drug promotion have proven all too true.  The BMJ today is full of doubts since a solitary Japanese author questioned the veracity of selectively published let alone unpublished Tamiflu studies orchestrated by Roche.

As some say, in marketing and disease-mongering,  its like in love and war-  anything goes – and provided it promotes American corporate interests, the FDA goes along.. ..

20091111 A This WW1 Armistice day : A new report quotes the CDC projection that “4000 rather than 1200 Americans have died of swine flu since April.. and that the  University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research thinks deaths are likely to be in the 30,000-to-40,000 range, and would have a long way to go to even get there… The vaccine should also cut the death rate.”.

Yesterday an appeal from the FDA Commissioner of Food and Drugs went out to all to promote the swine flu vaccine. But Dr Hamburg does not quote one iota of evidence that the vaccine does or will do more good than harm- especially in those at highest risk, the pregnant, the  old and ill and infants. She fails to address the cardinal issue: why have no trials so far assessed the benefit of the vaccine (on swine flu infectivity and morbidity)  against placebo on a background of well-known anti-infective natural safe supplements?

It is perfectly obvious that with an apparent infectivity rate of swine flu well above 1:1000, but an apparent linked mortality rate of  2 per million of population per month through September-October- the USA- the FDA CDC and the other interlinked countries at highest risk- Canada, Australia,  UK, Brazil, Argentine –  had a duty to see that the vaccines were immediately tested in double-blind RCTs against placebo injection in volunteers–  at least the apparently moderate risk ie the well young, but most of all  in the high-risk groups ie the age extremes, pregnancy and those with serious chronic diseases.

From the already established  spread-, fatality- and complication rate, it is obvious that, during the current upsurge reported by these countries, it would take no more than a few weeks – at a vaccination rate even in Sweden of 2million people in a few weeks, with spread rate of thousands of new  tested cases a month, to produce the crucial answers- how far does the vaccine cut the infection rate, and  the morbidity rate and degree.

Yet according to the NIH Clinical trials.gov registry, there is still no such trial listed. The FDA decided it doesnt require efficacy data on the vaccines.

So it appears that the Authorities in all pandemic  countries are guilty of gross deception- at best  that they know that the vaccine is pretty useless, or worse, that they dont know – and don’t want to know till the vaccine is all used up. Dastardly conspiracy theorizing, by sober scientists,  but that’s what the Authorities’ declared deliberate omission (evasion of such a basic obvious  efficacy trial)  creates.

At least there is a double-blind placebo-controlled  clinical trial of Tamiflu in progress in Hong Kong, in 300 patients with the swine flu, lasting a year. . The outcome is likely to be that, if tamiflu doesnt prove to be worse than the placebo, 300 is far too few subjects to show any significant benefit over placebo.

Bloombergs reports today that Norway has had 6300 confirmed cases by last week and 16 related deaths by Nov 9, but while Sweden had cases doubling weekly to the last week of October, there have still been only 3 related deaths reported . However on Nov 9th perhaps the 4th related death was reported in Sweden.  . But Sweden has banned media reporting on swine flu vaccine deaths, which stood at 5 after 2million vaccinations.

It looks like the cumulative swine-flu related deathrate in Europe has reached 0.8 per million population.

20091109  The past week: only one new case has been reported in Southern Africa (Namibia) and no linked deaths in Africa; in Canada between 3-5 Nov there were 14 new linked deaths (14% increase);   in Netherlands 7 people died in the week to 6 Nov, with the total there still only around 20 attributed to the swine flu.

The USA latest  CDC report shows that in the 2 months   to end October influenza-associated death rate was  2 per million of population per month; for comparison, in 2006 the monthly deathrate  was 770 per million, of which influenza and pneumonia  contributed only 2.3%, the 8th  leading cause  after cardiac-, stroke, malignant, lower respiratory, accident, diabetes and alzheimer causes.  Since – accidents aside- all of these commonest fatal  diseases are precisely the highrisk patients that die most of influenza anyway,  it is unclear whether the present increase in ILS ( influenza-like syndrome)  deaths has significantly increased overall mortality

SWINE FLU 1918: There is a graphic  interview on November  5th with a living survivor of the 1918  genuine flu epidemic, which killed some 2.5-3% ie 25 000 of  every million  people   (5% in India) by blue death- drowning-  in at least America, France and Germany, far more in India.  That  H1N1 plague lasted at least 2 years,  infecting perhaps 1/3 of the world population of 1.5billion,  with 50% cross-infection  rate and mortality rate of between 2% and 20% of those infected.

SWINE FLU 1976:  that outbreak never spread beyond Fort Dix, where one victim died. But in the ensuing government panic, 22% of the population were given a hastily prepared vaccine, followed by 1098 cases of Guillaine-Barre syndrome, at least half of which were attributed to the H1N1 vaccine, with at least 25 deaths. A recent review puts this risk (of GBS after H1N1 vaccination) at about 1 in a million- far  higher than  there is now of  healthy people dying of the current swine flu outside the Americas and Australia.

SWINE FLU 2009: it is cold comfort to see the current swine flu  global picture on Wiki at the end of October- a true deathrate of probably <1 per million after at least 6 months. The big question is, will there be more waves of it or, worse, a deadlier mutation caused by hasty vaccination?

The biggest  question, mystery, now is:  if swine flu is indeed pandemic  and spreading at least in America and Australia, why are there still no placebo-controlled trials published confirming that the vaccines and antiviral drugs reduce infectivity, severity and mortality of the 2009 H1N1 virus?

INCIDENCE: While bigger countries have stopped testing all but key or high-risk suspect cases for swine flu,   the smaller countries’ figures of confirmed cases relative to population size are instructive:

closed communities like the Cook Islands, Hong Kong and Macau respectively found incidence of 0.9% – 0.47%;

but only 0.07 -0.25% in other “ islands” world wide – Caymans, New Zealand, Jersey, Bahrain, Iceland, Marshall, Australia, Malta.

Mainland countries that apparently continue screening all who report in with flu symptoms – like Portugal and Belgium -found respectively 0.24% and 0.08% of suspects positive for  swine flu.

FATALITY: As regards death rates: Mexico and South Africa reported apparently related deaths among confirmed swine flu cases as approx 0.7%/1000 infections ; Australia & Japan approx 0.5%; Hong Kong 0.12%; and Germany and Portugal approx 0.02%.

Multiplying  the incidence rate by the case  fatality rate- or more simply dividing the number of deaths by the population- suggests that if you the reader  are generally well, the odds of  your  dying of swine flu are far below  1 in a million; whereas infants, or the elderly,  the chronically ill or  the obese are at far higher risk of dying anyway.  So far there have been some 1500 deaths in 308million Americans recorded in people testing positive for swine flu- that, is some 5 deaths per million- but by epidemiological  reasoning by an  international team, most of those deaths were already in pregnant or  other (chronically) high risk patients  and therefore not attributable primarily  to the swine flu itself- they were already, knowingly or not, at high background risk..

1500 deaths in 6 months  in America is ~0.8 deaths  per million per month, but the  background- all-cause  death rate there averages about 68 per million per month by last CDC count.

Japan and India with the highest population density in the world for  big  developed populations are remarkable – since the first case in their spring 6 months ago,  similar  population deathrates so far  of only 0.00004%  or  0.4 per million.

whereas in USA the official attributed  swine flu death rate so far is  12 fold higher ie  about 0.0005% ie  5 per million. North America’s epidemic  had only a month headstart on the rest of the world.

These fatality rates may be the maximum theoretically, since even in these first-world countries, the great majority of those who did have swine flu symptoms would not have reported in to be tested.

While most cases of swine flu would have been unrecorded- shrugged off-  in both developed and poor countries it is likely that many deaths at the time of maximum scare may have been wrongly ascribed to swine flu. This is what the naysayers about deaths after vaccination (whether against eg HPV- cervix cancer or against swine flu) are arguing strongly- that with mass vaccination superimposed on normal deathrates, the deaths within a few hours of vaccination or within days of  flu  are simply co-incidence, they are unrelated to the co-incidental  vaccination or the flu….

In Canada, “The majority of suspect swine flu patients— over 85%  (in intensive care)    — have some associated medical risk factors.”

The current NICD  stats for South Africa show that 77% of those who died with swine flu had  relevant co-morbidity  – 50% had HIV, 28% were peripartum women, 21% were obese,  11% diabetic, and 9 to 11% had active TB and/or serious cardiac disease. 91deaths is 1.8deaths per million – surprisingly low in the most unequal and reckless population in the world with massive overweight and ischemic heart disease;   the poor  great  majority having  been  increasingly deprived of jobs, education and quality health care, and suffering the  highest AIDs, tuberculosis,  infantile and maternal  mortality rates,  due to criminally negligent government since ‘independence’ 15years ago which has left the majority increasingly worse off.

So while the 2009 swine flu infectivity  the world over  is  probably far above 1%,  the fatality rates  causally related to the flu virus in those who contracted the swine flu in developed prosperous northern  countries (eg Europe, USA, Canada, Japan) was surely well below 0.03% ie <3:10 000;   and in poor countries like RSA and Mexico and India, probably similar since the virus would have spread far more densely in crowded poor communities with  higher malnutrition and underlying common diseases- but more protected by  having already survived poverty-related infections but also having less robust immune response.

It remains a mystery of rational reasoning as to how the wildfire spread of the 2009 H1N1 virus, and the low linked case fatality rates,  justify the promotion by first-world countries of ‘pandemic’ panic and mass treatment  with untested vaccines  and risky antivirals- especially when the vaccines contain  notoriously risky adjuvants like mercury, aluminium and squalene, let alone extracts (and possibly prions)  from species other than humans. These countries seem to have learned nothing from experience the past century with influenza, polio and HIV.

The reasons may be simply economic- Only Disease Pays, it’s a huge boost for healthcare providers, and manufacturers of  “antiviral” drugs, test kits, anti-swine flu vaccines, masks, disinfectants etc.

Why are there such differences in reported swine flu deathrates in similar countries?

Examining regions in the ~  6 months since the the pandemic hit them:

EUROPE: the biggest nation- Germany with 80million people has had  20 000 people test positive ie 1 in 40 000, with 9 deaths  ie about 0.1 in a million of population.

AlpineSwitzerland with almost 8million people has tested all suspicious cases with only 1000 confirmed swine flu, and no suspected deaths – but it  has  banned the  Glaxo  vaccine Pandemrix from being used in  pregnant women, children or young adults (below 18 years of age) or elderly (above 60 years of age).

Scandanavia: In Sweden this Glaxo vaccine has already been associated with 5 deaths in the first 2 weeks  –  5 deaths per (2) million population vaccinated in a month   -with  only some 2000 flu cases documented. Yet   so far in 6 months  only 3 -4 deaths there – 0.3 -o.4 per million population-  have been associated with swine flu itself . If 5 deaths there  soon after the swine flu vaccine , out of (2) million people vaccinated in less than a month,  are co-incidental- a vaccine-related death rate of 1:200  000. – one can equally argue that 4 deaths with the swine flu in a month  in a population of 9.2 million is not a causal relationship but co-incidence of death from other causes and not from the passing mild swine flu.. Norway has had 15 deaths ie 3/million; but Finland only 0.4  and Denmark only 0.16 per million. These and Switzerland are all cold countries with some 33million total population, 22deaths representing a fatality rate of 0.66 per million- the same as the average for Europe. Can there be such significant difference in prosperity and social services accross the EU  to explain the vastly different death rates? Or is it just statistical vagary, or  the fault of sensationalist disease-mongering  media?

A warmer but still cool  country like Germany has a swine flu deathrate of only 0.1/million, whereas the warmer British Isles have a rate of 2.5/million. And the  four  Greko-Latin European nations vary from 0.5 in Portugal & Greece  to 1.1 in  Spain to 4/million in Italy. Why the 8 fold difference? they all  take plenty of wine, olive products and a Mediterranean diet; and many citizens travel widely between these old countries and their migrant kith and kin at  the fountainhead  of swine flu  in North America. .

The overall European swine flu deathrate is only 0.78/million, with France – stretching from the Alps to two warmer  major oceans – similar, and the Low Countries only  0.5..  Why deathrates in three prosperous countries  genetically so linked to the rest of Europe but climatically so  diverse as  Norway, Italy  and UK   are so much above the rest of Europe remains to be unraveled.

CONTINENTAL DIFFERENCES:  in poor  South America there are also wide differences with 1.5 / million in Argentine but 7 per million in Brazil and the whole continent,   compared to 3 per million in the colder  North America;  4/million in the warmer  Caribbean; and  9/million in Australasia.  Why should deathrates be the high  in the Americas and Australasia, but 90%  lower in Japan, India and most of Europe?

But presumably the bigger and poorer the population, the fewer swine flu deaths  get reported, tested and  attributed- this may apply equally in Southern Africa, as in India, China and Russia.

Despite the vastly different climate conditions under which the majority of their people lives, the American deathrate so far – 5/million- is 25% higher than in Canada and poor Mexico‘s 4/million. But the USA admits that most cases of virus-like pneumonia are no longer being tested for H1N1, there are assumed to be due to it. Yet some sources say that this assumption grossly overestimates the  actual swine flu.

COMPARISON WITH AIDS: while the flu also  knows no social barriers- it merely spreads faster and bites faster  in denser and more vulnerable  poor populations- AIDS remains largely a scourge of ignorance, violence (male) and recklessness(male)- especially amongst politicians, who are  amongst the most promiscuous people globally, but eg  in South Africa also the cruelest in deliberately depriving the population until very recently  of both a semblance of social security and antiretrovirals, while spending the abundance of tax revenue on corrupt profligacy – in unneeded weaponry, and personal luxuries like mansions and (to this day) German limos.

Hence the prevalence rate of AIDS varies from above  15% in Southern Africa ( antenatal HIV prevalence of 30%)  to between o.1 and 1% in the rest of the world; with mortality varying from 50% within a year  of clinical presentation in the malnourished squatter millions  without treatment, to 50% survival after 20years with decent living standard and ARVs etc. In South Africa this year AIDS is said to kill a thousand a day ie 20 per million of population every day ie 7200 per million (7.2% of the population) per year- against a crude birthrate of 2% giving a nett population decrease of 5.2% a year, reducing life expectancy at birth to only 49years .


HIV-AIDS  VACCINE:  after >30years  there is still no proven safe  relevant vaccine in sight against the HIV.  But if rape and male reckless promiscuity  were stopped, there would be no need for a vaccine since cross-infection is so easily avoided.

SWINE FLU VACCINE: Since there has been  no  trial published of the clinical benefit of the  flu vaccine, no objective  information whatsoever is available to judge it’s efficacy versus risk  in  swine flu prevention.   No significant double-blind  trial has been done offering the flu vaccine versus placebo injection.  The first uncontrolled apparently open trial  started  in Australia 22 July, with results  promised and delivered within 6 weeks ie 2 months ago. It is strange indeed that just 8 weeks after the start of that trial, the Australian govt approved the vaccination campaign. . A medical media report of 11 Sept says only 240 people were enrolled in the trial, age 18 to 64 years ie outside the peak risk agegroups at the extremes of life; and the only result released was that the subjects had a good antibody response.

Even the NEJM official trial report gives no clinical results as to protection- although  the New York Times got it wrong in reporting that the “convincing  trial showed robust  protection” . This conclusion is hysterical nonsense since  the only data reported was the antibody response, which does not mean there will  necessarily be any clinical protection against the swine flu.  There can be  no conclusion  as to whether the vaccine reduced the swine flu infection rate or severity because there was no placebo group, double blind or otherwise. Similarly, the Australian trial in children 10 to 17 years old,  the Spanish trial in toddlers, the USA trial  in pregnancy,   and the Chinese trial, showed good antibody response by 10 days – but gave no result about clinical protection.

So all we need is a simple 2 x 2 RCT of  flu vaccine versus placebo vaccine, with all cases independently covered by eg a supplement of zinc plus  highdose vitamin betacarotene + C + D + K plus fish oil as baseline safety net,  or placebo. The most important question remains: given the huge proven benefit of  safe vigorous doses of these cheap freely available supplements against both flu and AIDS, do people need anything more than a multisupplement to reduce risk of all diseases?  and does adding a costly hazardous H1N1 vaccine on top of that give worthwhile better protection against swine flu? The answer must be overwhelmingly NO, given the risk of at least GBS if not anaphylactic death after H1N1 vaccines. Why take a vaccine if it’s risk is  far worse than that of the swine flu itself, let alone  simple all-system multinutrient prevention that reduces all-cause mortality by at least a third?

But the last thing that vaccine manufacturers,  marketeers and governments  want is a negative answer, so they dont allow such a trial- is it because they lack courage, or that they already know the answer is negative, or worst of all,  that the vaccine is worse than useless?

Some may argue that it is unethical to offer nothing ie double placebo in such an RCT with rare but arguably serious virus-related complications. So all could be covered by at least a simple standard multivite a day at below RDA levels- which by all accounts gives marginal if any benefits except in the malnourished.

Obviously the difficulty with such a virus trial  is cost and invasiveness:  in  an RCT of the vaccine, one ideally needs to have  both serological and culture screening for this hybrid H1N1 virus at baseline – as well as placebo-controlled evidence of reduction in disease. Since the swine flu is so far milder than seasonal flu, there is no other way of defining whether a specific swine flu  vaccine is of significant overall benefit against this H1N1 virus.

Trumpeting “pandemic” and compulsory vaccination with an unproven vaccine  is a great distraction and profiteering  for governments-  presidents and the Big Business that controls them and their agencies,   beset with insoluble political and corruption scandals as are most. Recently an Australian anti-vaccination group published a damning cross-referenced  litany of evidence against  the trillion$ vaccination industry.

The current “pandemic” distraction with swine flu while they wage war on their peoples, effective martial law implemented or foreseen  in the USA, China,  and South Africa (predicted conversion of the police to a massive politicized  paramilitary, nationalization of all major industry and business and provincial governments), is beyond the imagination of most fiction writers except masters like Margaret Atwood – ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’;  Jose Saramago – ‘Blindness’ and ‘Seeing’;  Gabriel Garcia Marquez ; Franz Kafka.  .

We can only continue to pray, hope that sanity will prevail , that  RCTs  of  both the swine flu vaccine and antiviral drugs are  being done  to prove that they are both useful, necessary and safe. There is no evidence on the internet of this,   suggesting that conspiracy theory may  prove correct – that the whole vaccination and antiviral drugs if not the severity of the ‘pandemic’  are simply the result of disease-mongering for profit, like ever-popular  war-mongering on every continent..

THE 2014 VIRUS SEASON DAWNS: URGENT UPDATE: AVOIDING THE SEMMELWEIS REFLEX; natural antibiotics- Vitamins C & D3 – avoiding vitamin denialism.

update 22/3/2014the March equinox:Vaccines and antivirals for preventing   and  treating  influenza in healthy adults have  very modest benefit.  as  the seasonal flu epidemic wanes in the northern hemisphere and approaches in the south, Authorities eg the US CDC  continue relentlessly to promote mass flu vaccination. The South African Authority NICD recommends vaccination for anyone at high risk ie the elderly, infants or the sick, and carers. It also recommends antivirals eg Tamiflu for infection- but the BMJ recently publishes  Study claiming Tamiflu saved lives was based on “flawed” analysis. a 2012 BMJ  report by the samemedical journalist   Zosia Kmietowicz   notes Cochrane group rejects Roche’s offer of “advisory board” to discuss analysis of oseltamivir data. The 2011 Cochrane question remains unresolved:  Does Oseltamivir Tamiflu  Really Reduce Complications of Influenza?

But current Cochrane review of controlled trial publications to 2013 confirms  Vaccination of pregnant women is recommended internationally, while healthy adults are targeted in North America. The overall efficacy of inactivated vaccines in preventing confirmed influenza has a NNV of 71 (95% CI 64 to 80). . Live aerosol vaccines have an overall effectiveness corresponding to a NNV 46 (95% CI 29 to 115). Vaccination had a modest effect on time off work and had no effect on hospital admissions or complication rates. Inactivated vaccines caused local harms CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccines have a very modest effect in reducing influenza symptoms and working days lost in the general population, including pregnant women.  This review includes 90 studies, 24 of which (26.7%) were funded totally or partially by industry. Out of the 48 RCTs, 17 were industry-funded (35.4%).

A current German review  Methodological quality of systematic reviews on influenza vaccination.   Fourty-six systematic reviews fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Average methodological quality was high  but variability was large (AMSTAR range: 0-11). Quality did not differ significantly according to vaccination target group. Cochrane reviews had higher methodological quality than non-Cochrane reviews (p=0.001).  this was due to better study selection and data extraction, inclusion of unpublished studies, and better reporting of study characteristics (all p<0.05).

20/1/2014   Protecting us from the new year northern hemisphere viruses:   natural antibiotics- Vitamins C & D: avoiding vitamin denialism as cause of more deaths.

Abstract: The Semmelweis  Reflex is about rejecting, deriding important new scientific discoveries or any serious sincere statement/action.    I didnt  fully appreciate the importance of that  age-old human  (mostly male) evil – mocking, martyrdom  and murder by denialism-  until I started this review of the current flu season threat and the role of supplements, and researched  pioneer medical martyrs Drs Ignaz Semmelweis, Jack Drummond  and Linus Pauling  as  paradigms of the scourge of modern vested-interest denialism and falsehoods, in medicine as much as politics, religion etc..

In fact,  just as it is negligence to deny (as Semmelweis’s persecutors did) gloving up or  properly washing  hands between examining patients , or ensure that every adult has bloodpressure checked occasionally, it is clearly bad practice  not to ensure that everyone – especially the young and old,  takes a multinutrient plus extra vigorous dose vitamins D3 and C, plus some protective herbs- garlic, cinnamon, ginger, origanum; and fish oil and/or coconut oil if not both; and drastically cut down sweetness intake- especially fructose, sucrose  and aspartame that now pervade all mass- produced food and drinks..

update 21 January 2014 : URGENT: THE 2014 FLU EPIDEMIC:     “High H1N1 prevalence and mortality rates a concern:    Type A (H1N1) influenza, the  commonest flu virus in Canada this year, has a higher  than anticipated mortality rate  causing some to wonder if it’s virulence has increased.             The worrisome factor  “is the reported mortality rate,” says  McGill University. As of Jan. 13, there were twenty confirmed deaths in Canada   attributed to H1N1. “There are more deaths than what we expect for the regular H1N1 influenza, The strain this year could be more virulent . 96% of this year’s lab -confirmed influenza is H1N1. The virus is unusual in that it appears to affect younger people more than other strains of seasonal influenza. People  20 to 65 are being hit harder than usual, comprising 52% of flu cases.                                  However, if you look at Europe,  it’s still H3N2. Its an example of how   you never know what the flu is going to do.”           Alberta confirmed a death  on Jan. 8, due to the virus H5N1, an avian virus. The  deceased woman had recently returned from China. The mortality rate is higher with H5N1 than H1N1, “but fortunately, it’s not an easy virus to transmit”. So far, it seems that there are no cases of H5N1 transmission from human-to-human. It seems   like the cases of H5N1 are few and far between and related to contact with birds in  China.     Patrick Janukavicius, Montréal, Quebec.  In the same period, at least 20 children have reportedly died of the same strain in USA.

update 12 Jan 2014  THE ANTIFLU VACCINE DECEPTION: this review by Doc Joe Mercola     stresses the disease-mongering myths,  futility and risks in real life of flu vaccination  and antiflu drugs eg Tamiflu ; and the overwhelming importance of natural immune boosters like Vit D3 & C, zinc, selenium,  herbs, and hygienic prevention.

1 Jan 2014  CURRENT INFLUENZA STATUSThe  22 December  solstice is the sun at its southern nadir seen from planet Earth, the onset respectively of real winter in the Northern hemisphere, and real summer in South Africa. Last year   the Gregorian New Year heralded a fierce flu season in the northern hemisphere, and as usual feathered- and jet-propelled  air travel brought the corresponding surge at the bottom of Africa.

And ominously, the Plagues & Pandemics   (Howard Phillips 2012) of temperate climates  that did so much historically  to mould global demography not least  the past 360 years in South Africa ( –STDS- pox, bubonic, polio, cholera, influenza, and now  tuberculosis, Mad Cow disease, and   HIV-AIDS). and especially antibiotic-resistant germs – are all on the increase despite (or because of) the increasingly futile $trillion armamentarium of 20th century designer vaccines and other antimicrobials.. 

Pneumonia is a welcome   friend of the old, often rapidly relieving prolonged degenerative incapacity;  such ending mostly by virus respiratory infection  the gateway for the  final bacterial infection.  

Unlike the  selflimited coronavirus common cold, breath-and hand-borne type A  influenza, although usually mild in the well,  is the commonest trigger in the frail.  Many  of us in our (grand)parents’ time lost relatives in the 1918/1919 “Spanish”  H1N1  flu pandemic. But that was a unique  global catastrophe because it killed mostly  armies  of healthy men, and then  young working adults, apparently from cytokine storm, with 30 % of the workforce out for up to3 weeks if not  20% mortality.  This is harrowingly described in the recently published   Letters ( to his Mother) of Dr Arthur Conan Doyle, who lost – apart from his first wife to TB- more young relatives to the  flu  than to warfare.

The recent spring  months here – apart from seasonal allergies -have seen declining viral respiratory illness in Cape Town, with the  upper respiratory accent often shifted down to more gastritis-enteritis .

But New Year 2014   UK and northern North America forecast  and are having a  wet if not white New Year.  ‘Flu rates are reported already high  and rising  in USA and Canadamostly influenza A H1N1(swine-avian flu-the main 1918/19 killer); including already 6 deaths in USA and 3 in Canada.

but not in Europe, where  the influenza (A > B) prevalence is still low and slightly more H3N2 than H1N1;  in UK there has rather been been increase in RSV respiratory syncytial virus bronchitis in infants. .  .

In fact by 28 December the exploding H1N1 deathtoll had hit 13 in Texas alone; especially in youths; with increasing Tamiflu resistance reported eg in Missisippi.. On 24 Dec the USA CDC mailed an emergency Advisory Notice to Clinicians: Early Reports of pH1N1-Associated Illnesses for the 2013-14 Influenza Season: From November through December 2013, CDC has received a number of reports of severe respiratory illness among young and middle-aged adults, many of whom were infected with influenza A pH1N1 pdm09 virus. Multiple pH1N1-associated hospitalizations, including many requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and some fatalities have been reported.  While it is not possible to predict which influenza viruses will predominate during the entire 2013-14 influenza season, pH1N1 has been the predominant circulating virus so far. For the 2013-14 season, if pH1N1 virus continues to circulate widely, illness that disproportionately affects young and middle-aged adults may occur. 

Our  regional  South African Communicable Diseases Institute says H1N1 was documented here from April to September. But of 2566 pts with severe respiratory illness for January to October 2013 enrolled and tested at the five sentinel sites, only 6% were positive for influenza – mostly virus -H1N1. A pneumonia case in Cape Town was found to be due to Leigionnaire’s.

Now from China 147 human cases of avian influenza H7N9 have been confirmed including 48 deaths. – especially from poultry contact. No vaccine is currently available for avian influenza (H7N9) virus.

SAPA–AFP, 10 December 2013:  Resistant flu virus keeps contagiousness.  A mutant form of the H7N9 flu virus that is resistant to frontline drugs is just as contagious as its non-resistant counterpart, according to a study, published inthe journal Nature Communications.  The virus has claimed dozens of  lives since its outbreak in February. H7N9 is believed to have spread to humans from poultry, where it circulates naturally. The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on its website that “so far”, no evidence has emerged of  “sustained” transmission of H7N9 among people.

And H7N1 and H7N7 has broken out in ostriches in South Africa,

So never mind the  common cold  coronaviruses and many other prevalent infections, increased caution is due against all common diseases at this season- both the USA H1N1 swine flu circulating the past few years,  and now the Chinese H7N9 flu. . And the MERS-Co Virus Middle-East SARS-type outbreak has not gone away… 9 new cases reported the past week or two  from the KSA alone .the-deadly-middle-east-coronavirus-outbreak/

A  current NEJM  has a new report of a trial of quadrivalent Vaccine for Prevention of Mild and Moderate-to-Severe Influenza in Children by vaccine manufacturers GSK. The vaccine reduced severity by perhaps 70%- but at a cost of 1.5% serious adverse events, 50% more than the control group (hepatitis A vaccine only).                                                                                    The question remains- why risk  flu vaccine’s ~1.5% serious adverse events when a single high dose of vitamin D3  300 000iu  even just annually, and regular vitamin C with a multivite  including zinc and selenium (at trivial cost ) largely cover one  against a multitude of infections including AIDS and TB, and all degenerative health   problems?


Is it coincidence, or divine evolution, that we have had available at low cost  for about 60 year (never mind zinc,  selenium, iron, iodine, vitamins A and vitamin E) two safe natural major antimicrobials in vigorous safe dose   –  vitamins  C and D3?  Medico-Pharma Big Business and governments have been heavily discrediting and ruthlessly suppressing these  for their own profiteering vested interest  even as plagues of HIV, TB,  influenza rage, and Big Business determinedly profits hugely from killer  smoking and alcohol sales despite increasing  marketing restriction?   South Africa- a major producer of alcohol and tobacco-smoke, and fossil-fuel-burning power stations, factories and motorvehicles – continues to lead the world with  the highest road and respiratory death rates  despite zealous attempts to reduce their lethal  use.

Apart from optimal hygiene including  avoiding livestock  and poultry contact, smoking, alcoholism and pollution including  swimming and sick buildings- air-conditioning-           what can we take  to minimize avoidable influenza  ie immune depletion risk? apart from enough  sunshine, exercise, rest, sleep, walking barefoot, not carrying a cellphone,   and good mixed fresh organic diet? The clinical benefit of influenza vaccines is anything but proven, and the adverse risks appreciable.

Big Business and thus governments  and the media  profit from illness, so they keep publishing articles promoting Big Business: new antibiotics, vaccines  and other synthetic drugs that do not prevent or cure but if anything perpetuate chronic degenerative obesity-diabetes-vascular-respiratory,- digestive-arthritic-cancer diseases; – and  GMO-genetically modified preserved  food  and bottled drinks stuffed with slow poisons like refined cornstarch – fructose; salt; sucrose and cereals, soya,  Roundup, antibiotics, preservatives, estrogenics,  aspartame,  and especially boiled and baked omega6 and sugars;  instead of marine omega3 and MCT- medium chain triglyceride virgin coconut oil, and unrefined cereals eg oats, wholewheat bread etc..  

Big Business and it’s cash-cow  Disease Industry decries  the natural healthgiving lowsugar Asian/ Mediterranean  diet-organically pastured and grown livestock meat and dairy products, lightly cooked if not raw (oily)  fish,  fruit and nuts, coloured veggies,  and plenty of  oils in their natural plant form. These were  the norm till food processing became Big Business in our lifetime post WW2, and the developed world was bluffed by Organized Medicine, the Food Barons and Big Pharma  with the masterly fiction of Ancel Keyes, into jettisoning the natural longevity “sea and farm” diet of the east eg Japan, and West eg Mediterranean (fresh produce & cholesterol-rich dairyproducts, meat and fish)  for the Diet Deception (Gary Taubes, Tim Noakes) and Bad Pharma ( James le Fanu, Ben Goldacre) of Ancel Keyes‘  low-fat high-refined cereals, margarine; and  the cholesterol -busting and psychotropes/ painkillers /antidementia/antivascular/ antidiabetic disease Designer Drugs-for-all  myths.

It spends multimillions promoting alcohol,  smoking and ever-newer designer prescription drugs and vaccine, and  disinformation on old well-proven cheap drugs like  reserpine, amilozide, metformin,  natural physiological  human hormone replacement,  natural antioxidants and anti-inflammatories ,  and decrying  ineffective but deliberately lowdose and isolated or imbalanced  vitamins and minerals .

The ATBC vits A+E trial  (isolated highdose vits A and E) was  one such  farce in very high risk smokers in an icy climate. . Others have been the recent Norwegian trial using only up to 1000iu vit D supplement a day,

and the current Annals Int Medicine editorial  review of three new articles condemning multisupplements: , on which Mike Howard publishes a scathing critique

*a commercial multisupplement in the TACT  post-heart attack trial – but the composition of the multisupplement  included only deficiency-disease prevention microdoses of micronutrients including 100iu vitamin D3/d and equally negligible vitamin K-  not pharmacological doses of key vitamins eg vits B, C, D & K2 that are well proven to greatly reduce infections and chronic degenerative diseases ;

* the  Physicians’ Health Study  randomized elderly professional men  to placebo or combinations of vitamin C (500 mg synthetic ascorbic acid), vitamin E (400 IU of synthetic alpha-tocopherol), beta-carotene (50 mg Lurotin), and a multivitamin (Centrum Silver – this included  anti-deficiency disease low dose of all common vits and minerals BUT   only 400iu Vit D3),   .

* The third study- on lowdose (traditional anti-deficiency disease) Vitamin and Mineral Supplements in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer was simply a literature review of 26 best-quality  published trials of microdoses – not pharmacological safe macrodoses.

ie these  three trials published in this  Annals Internal Medicine issue to please Big Pharma advertisors to discredit supplements shared the usual problem of now well-known futile lowdose supplement doses  at least of vitamins D3 and K, if not also vitamin C in the multigram dose scientifically promoted by the Drs  Stone- Klenner-Pauling followers.

Sir Jack Cecil  Drummond (1891-1952) was one of the world’s pioneer 20th century  biochemists and nutritionists in UK,  from  1916- 1952 discovering or defining  and promoting  under his world-famous biochemist professors Rosenheim, Halliburton and Funk the role especially  of vits A, B, C  and E. Thanks to his and Churchill’s forceful vision and foresight, he oversaw  food supply and diet  and thus keeping Britons healthy through and after WW2. He was  so successful in promoting healthy cheap and unpatentable micronutrients and natural fresh food  (in the face of the mushrooming megaprofit  processed food  and designer drug industry) that it  speculatively led to his and his family’s  1952 assassination by competing interests  in France The Vitamin Murders, Fergusson 2007. .

        MURDER BY DENIALISM: It is incontrovertible   common cause that irrational and often jealous medical denialism costs endless lives:
* Scurvy prevention:  Dr James Lind (who did the first ever recorded clinical trial) showed by 1750 that sailors’ scurvy on long sea voyages  was preventable; but  despite his pioneer discovery, the British navy cost the lives of thousands more seamen from scurvy when the Admirals  neglected for 50years until the Napoleonic Wars to supply the fresh produce-  eg limes – that rapidly cured and prevented the lethal scourge.

This despite the fact that another UK navy surgeon Dr John Woodall had already over 130 years earlier- by 1617 – published in UK  The Surgeon’s Mate stating We have in our owne country here many excellent remedies generally knowne,- Scurvy-grasse, Horse-Reddish roots, Nasturtia Aquatica, Wormwood, Sorrell, and many other good meanes… to the cure of those at home…and Sea-men returned from farre who by the only natural disposition of the fresh aire and amendment of diet, nature herselfe in effect doth the Cure (of scurvy- for which antiscorbutic citrus had been known since antiquity) without other helps. the Lemmons, Limes, Tamarinds, Oranges, and other choice of good helps in the Indies… do farre exceed any that can be carried tither from England.

* Childbed fever prevention:  in 1865  Dr Ignaz Semmelweis (1818 -’65) an AustroHungarian Roman Catholic ob-gyne in Vienna, was locked up, and beaten to death  within weeks, because he showed – to the outrage of his peers- that handwashing with chlorinated lime eradicated the epidmic puerperal fever (three times that in the midwives’ ward)  in  the  doctors’ labour wards; 70years before Thir Reich terrorists took charge, his senior colleagues reacted violently to his progressive promotion of (what was already more advanced British and  French) hygiene and science, and his urging them to wash their hands after examining corpses before examining women in labour..  .  Tragically for Semmelweis and new mothers in the Hapsburg empire then,  Pasteur (b 1822) and Lister (b 1827) ‘s germ antiseptic discoveries  were already being implemented further west, but  had not yet been publicized.

    *metformin after centuries of use as an antidiabetic herb galega officinalis,  and its extraction as an antidiabetic in 1922, came into increasing use globally from the 1950s as the best treatment for type 2 diabetes, but the USA- to protect their own new patent antidiabetic  drugs – ruthlessly suppressed  its use there (like that of the natural salt lithium for manic depression)  for 40years till the mid-1990s.

     *AIDS and ART denialism: until  5 years  ago in South Africa   the  overwhelming-majority “people’s”  government  (with the country’s vast resources),  and its successive  “health”  ministers,   cost the lives of an estimated 300 000  AIDS victims through sufferers  – indigent state dependents-  being denied  antiretroviral ART  drugs, (never mind still till now denied quality education and civil  security,  and thus    adequate basic nutrition, and meaningful housing,  jobs and thus hope.)  Genocidal AIDS denialism about which the still-ruling (since 1994) leadership cadre did nothing until under  intense  international pressure and repeated Constitutional Court orders, combined with political rival factioneering in the ruling party,   they  ousted the denialist president and his denialist Disease Minister in 2008.


VIGOROUS VITAMIN C ASCORBIC ACID  PHARMACOTHERAPY : Much effort and Big Pharma money  has been  spent to denigrate the irrefutable science-based work   (between their advocacy years shown) of Drs Irvine Stone (1934-1984), Fred Klenner(1948-74) and Linus Pauling (1970-1991) of  antibiotic dose >50 to 1000 mg/kg/d pure vitamin C (not the antiscurvy  10mg/d)  – as a universally needed essential in primates. We primats,  like guineapigs and a few birds and fish species,  are among the few  that do not make their own since we  lost the needed gene and thus enzyme in our evolution..

It took about 150 years after Lind’s publication for the antiscorbutic factor to be named as vitamin C by Dr Jack Drummond, another 10 years for it to be assayed and its structure proven- but despite the pioneering clinical work of Dr Fred Klenner in the 1950s proving the lifesaving benefit of tens of grams a day intravenously, it took another 20 years before Dr Linus Pauling  took up Dr Irvine Stone’s conviction and put highdose vitamin C  on the world Nobel prize map; just on Pubmed,  vitamin C has >51 000 citations  since 1921, and intravenously in 763 entries  since 1946, with  Dr Fred  Klenner reporting  it intravenously  asmajor antibiotic in the Southern Medical journal from 1948..

The 2009 book  Injectable Vitamin C and the Treatment of Viral and Other Diseases collection  of  medical journal papers from the 1930s to 2006 details the exhaustive scientific evidence proving the uniform benefit of even 1gm a day vit C both as an antimicrobial antiinflammatory antioxidant  and immunomodulator against major crippling / lethal diseases from polio to tuberculosis, pneumonia, hepatitis, rabies, encephalitis, neuritis, poisoning, cancer, and pancreatitis;                                                                                   

          and the persistent resistance of the FDA and other multinational Regulators to recognize (so as to protect their domestic patent drug manufacturers- Big Pharma and their politician and civil service lobbyists )- such uniquely safe and effective natural drug therapy.         The final chapters of that 2009 book pose the crucial questions of overwhelming vested interest by the organized medical – hospital –pharmaceutical mega-industry and governments in not eradicating preventable disease, the Big Pharma banning of natural effective remedies-  The Origin of the 42-Year Stonewall of Vitamin C, and Medical Resistance to Innovation,

The  University of Oregon,  the  Riordan-Gonzalez group and more recently Hemila and Chaker‘ and Ullah et al’ s 2012 reviews have  published much  validating what Drs Goodall, Lind, Drummond, Stone, Klenner, Pauling and Cameron started.

VIGOROUS   VITAMIN D3 CHOLECALCIFEROLPHARMACOTHERAPY  costing wholesale ~ <US$0.5/month for ~200 000iu /month  in South Africa)  reduces serious infection by perhaps 90% ie 9fold: . eg 80iu/kg/d – 500iu/d (15000u/month) for an infant, 50 000iu/wk or 200 000iu/mo for an adult; who if obese, may need two  to three times the average dose, to achieve the (?) optimal 25OH vit D level of around 70ng/ml for health, higher for any acute or chronic chronic illness.

The modern prophets of vitamin D3 have been the three pre-WW2 doyens :

Prof Chris E Nordin (MB ChB 1950) working in bone physiology for 60 years now; 84 papers on vitamin D on Pubmed 

Prof Walter Stumpf (1927-2012; MD 1952) the recently deceased  professor at North Carolina University, neuropsychiatrist and radiobiologist  in his 60year medical career with over 500 publications (76 on Vit D on Pubmed) including early discovering that vitamin D targets all systems and diseases; professor-walter-e-stumpf-ahead-of-his-time/ and https://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/tag/stumpf-dr-walter/

paralled by Prof Robert Heaney (MD 1951) at Creighton University, osteoporosis and nutrition authority with 119 vitamin D papers on Pubmed since 1982, over 400 publications to date;

succeeded by Prof Mike Holick (PhD 1971, MD 1976) with 391 publications on vitamin D since 1970 on Pubmed, who has done more than most to show that the maximum daily body production of vitamin D3 with plenty of sunlight is enough to prevent rickets and reduce all disease, but nowhere near the pharmacologically therapeutic 80iu/kg/d needed to maintain a vigorous all-disease protective bloodlevel of 60-100ng/ml.

and Dr John Cannell (MD 1976, registered psychiatrist from 1993, nutritionalist), a  legendary whistleblower .   who successively campaigned against  #cigarette smoking; and  uncovered:   # the cigarette-smoking  (Black Lung) compensationitis fraud of miners’ pneumoconiosis;          #the fictitious inflated “above national average” school results (Lake Woebegone)  that all states were inventing and  reporting (as is still happening – mass government deception- in South Africa) ;  then the  
# recovered memory therapy (RMT) scandal – a form of psychotherapy in which patients recovered memories of abuse that they had no previous memory of. Such therapy resulted in false memory syndrome (FMS) of events that never occurred as well as an epidemic of multiple personality disorder (MPD), a rare disorder historically conceived of as being a hysterical disorder.  Unfortunately, many MPD patients believed the psychiatrist conducting the RMT and went home to falsely accuse their parents and others of horrendous acts that never occurred. Cannell teamed up with two Harvard professors to write a peer reviewed paper on RMT, debunking the witch-hunt;                                                                               then since the 1990s researching and promoting  # vitamin D deficiency as major cause of much psychopathology including autism, and vigorous vitamin D therapy to correct multiple diseases, through the Vitamin D Council. He has (co)authored some 13 papers, and published a book. .

Now a major longterm German Cancer Research screening program has just publishd   the 2002-2013 ESTHER study (Perna ea) of 10 000 citizens followed with serial 25OH vit D  levels; to assess the association of apparently unsupplemented vit D levels with fatal and nonfatal CVD in the same study population.  Follow-up data, including survival status, up to over 9  years. Comparing subjects with 25(OH)D levels below 12ng/ml and above 20ng/ml resulted in the lower vitamin D level cohort showing a higher hazard ratio of 1.27 (95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.54) for total CVD and 1.62 (1.07-2.48) for fatal CVD in a model adjusted for important potential confounders. No significant association for nonfatal CVD was observed. In dose-response analysis, we observed an increased cardiovascular risk at 25(OH)D levels below 30ng/ml. Results for CHD and stroke were comparable to the results obtained for the composite outcome CVD. Our results support evidence that low 25(OH)D levels are associated with moderately increased risk of CVD, BUT  the observed association is much stronger for fatal than for nonfatal events.

But the benefit of sunlight in healing tuberculosis has been used for well over a century; while the Google antibiotic benefit of calciferol on Pubmed goes back at least to 1950.

In a prospective 16 mo trial in press from Australia, vit D3 even just 60 000iu/month (ie 2000iu/day) halved antibiotic use in seniors.  (Tran, Neale  ea 2014) Effect of vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic use: a randomized controlled trial.

Since the toxic dose of vitamin D long term  reportedly may be as high as 600 000iu/day or a blood level well >150ng/l , imagine how much better the antimicrobial benefit of vitamin D3 at 80 to 100iu/kg/day or pro rata – even higher eg 10 000+iu/day for obese people who sequester more vit D in fat. .

Dr Robert F  Cathcart wrote 30 to 20 years ago in  Med Hypotheses. 1981 Vitamin C, titrating to bowel tolerance, anascorbemia, and acute induced scurvy   The amount of oral ascorbic acid tolerated by a patient without producing diarrhea increase somewhat proportionately to the stress or toxicity of his disease. Bowel tolerance doses of ascorbic acid ameliorate the acute symptoms of many diseases. Lesser doses often have little effect on acute symptoms but assist the body in handling the stress of disease and may reduce the morbidity of the disease. However, if doses of ascorbate are not provided to satisfy this potential draw on the nutrient, first local tissues involved in the disease, then the blood, and then the body in general becomes deplete of ascorbate (Anascorbinemia and Acute Induced Scurvy). The patient is thereby put at risk for complications of metabolic processes known to be dependent upon ascorbate.                     1984 Vitamin C in the treatment of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). evidence is that massive doses of ascorbate (50-200 grams per 24 hours) suppress the symptoms of the disease and can markedly reduce secondary infections. In combination with usual treatments for the secondary infections, large doses of ascorbate will often produce a clinical remission which shows every evidence of being prolonged if treatment is continued. .. despite continuing laboratory evidence of helper T-cell suppression. There may be a complete or partial destruction of the helper T-cells during an initial infection that does not necessitate a continuing toxicity from some source to maintain a permanent or prolonged helper T-cell suppression. However, it is possible ascorbate may prevent that destruction if used adequately during that prodrome period. Emphasis is put on the recognition and treatment of the frequent intestinal parasites. Food and chemical sensitivities occur frequently in the AID syndrome and may aggravate symptoms considered to be part of the AID syndrome. A topical C-paste has been found very effective in the treatment of herpes simplex and, to a lesser extent, in the treatment of some Kaposi’s lesions.  Increasingly, clinical research on other methods of treating AIDS is being “contaminated” by patients taking ascorbate.                                                     1991 A unique function for Vitamin C is as reducing substance,  electron donor. When vitamin C donates its two high-energy electrons to scavenge free radicals, much of the resulting dehydroascorbate is re-reduced to vitamin C and therefore used repeatedly. Conventional wisdom is correct in that only small amounts of vitamin C are necessary for this function because of its repeated use. The point missed is that the limiting part in nonenzymatic free radical scavenging is the rate at which extra high-energy electrons are provided through NADH to re-reduce the vitamin C and other free radical scavengers. When ill, free radicals are formed at a rate faster than the high-energy electrons are made available. Doses of vitamin C as large as 1-10 g per 24 h do only limited good. However, when ascorbate is used in massive amounts, such as 30-200+ g per 24 h, these amounts directly provide the electrons necessary to quench the free radicals of almost any inflammation, and reduces NAD(P)H and therefore  provide the high-energy electrons necessary to reduce the molecular oxygen used in the respiratory burst of phagocytes. In these functions, the ascorbate part is mostly wasted but the necessary high-energy electrons are provided in large amounts.

A recent review from Atlanta Kearns ea found 30 papers which aggregate to show that annual vitamin   D3 dose (not D2) of  optimally 300 000 to 500 000iu (wholesale cost ~R5 in South Africa)  for deficient adults is best for avoiding poor patient compliance with minimal risk and major benefit.

THE INFERIORITY OF VITAMIN D2 SUPPLEMENT: It should be noted that the long-used Lennon’s Strong Calciferol datasheet  (1974 updated 2004) does not indicate that this 50 000iu tablet labelled ‘calciferol’  is in fact vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol), not the fourfold more potent cholecalciferol D3 formed by sunlight in the skin. This is disclosed only on the Lennons website.. and in the South African Medicines Formulary.  So ‘Strong Calciferol’ in South Africa (actually  the D2 not D3 form of calciferol) is convenient but seriously deceptive mislabeling-  much weaker than the ideal vitamin D3, and therefore its effect unpredictable compared to D3- in fact Dierkes ea Norway show that  giving D2 may actually lower 25OH vit D level in the blood..   Sadly, despite this being reported to the local manufacturers and authorities, no correction of the clinically serious misperception created by the Strong Calciferol label and insert has been issued  to health practitioners by the Medicines Control Council and the manufacturer Aspen-Lennons. 

A recent 8yr study in Cape Town blacks   Reciprocal seasonal variation in vitamin D status and tuberculosis notifications in South Africa Martineau, Nhamoyebonde ,Wilkinson ea   confirmed that vitamin D deficiency (serum 25(OH)D <20 mg/L) is associated with susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) in HIV-uninfected people in Cape Town as it is Europe. Vitamin D deficiency was present in 62.7% of 370 participants and was associated (OR ~5.4)  with active TB in both HIV-uninfected  and HIV-infected -(P < 0.001) people. Vitamin D status varied according to season:  25(OH)D concentration was double in summer-January- March compared to winter (23 vs 12ng/l; P < 0.001). Reciprocal seasonal variation in TB notifications was observed:lowest in autumn  and highest in spring October through December (4,2 vs. 5; P < 0.001). Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent among black Africans in Cape Town and is associated with susceptibility to active TB both in the presence and absence of HIV infection.

Antimicrobial implications of vitamin D is detailed by Youssef,  Peiris ea (USA  Dermato-Endocrinol  2011)   against all microorganisms – viruses, fungi, bacteria, protozoa  (except perhaps leishmaniasis)  as both profound prevention and therapy; in many cases without commercially invented marketed antimicrobials to which there is growing and deadly  microbial resistance, let alone toxicity.. There is evidence that seasonal vitamin D deficiency  status contributed greatly to the 1918/19 flu-pneumonia pandemic (Grant & Giovannucci 2009).

and finally, a month ago JAMA published from Marianna  Baum,  Richard Marlink ea the universities of Miami, Harvard and Florida  Effect of Micronutrient Supplementation on Disease Progression in Asymptomatic  Antiretroviral-Naive HIV-Infected Adults in Botswana A Randomized Clinical Trial,  that Micronutrient deficiencies occur early in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and supplementation with micronutrients may be beneficial; however, its effectiveness has not been investigated early in HIV disease among adults who are antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive.  2 year supplementation with either daily vitamins BCo,  C and E, selenium alone, or B,C,E with selenium vs placebo: study  conducted in 878 patients infected with HIV subtype C with a CD4 cell count greater than 350/μL who were not receiving ART between  2005 and July 2009.  Results  participants receiving the combined supplement of vitamins plus selenium vs placebo had half the  risk of reaching CD4 cell count 250/μL or less (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.46); and secondary events of combined outcomes for disease progression  or AIDS-related death, whichever occurred earlier [adjusted HR, 0.56); . There was no effect of supplementation on HIV viral load. Multivitamins alone and selenium supplementation alone were not statistically different from placebo for any end point. Reported adverse events were adjudicated  unlikely  related to the intervention, and there were no notable differences in incidence of HIV-related and health-related events among study groups.Conclusions and Relevance  In ART-naive HIV-infected adults, 24-month supplementation with a single supplement containing vitamins BCo,C,E and selenium was safe and significantly reduced the risk of immune decline and morbidity. Micronutrient supplementation may be effective when started in the early stages of HIV disease.

THE PARADOX OF THE GLUCOSE- ASCORBIC ACID- CHOLESTEROL- STEROID CASCADE:              Is it coincidence, or  evolution, that the basic animal fast-energy circulating anabolic substrates are glucose, fatty acids and aminoacids?   from which basic glucose C6H12O6 ( from ingested  fructose C6H12O6 and sucrose C12H22O11, or fats or protein)  the liver manufactures the basic cardinal steroid  cholesterol C27H46O.     Then from cholesterol we metabolize by adding or splitting off carbon molecules  the crucial anabolic and regulating  human hormones-                                                                                                                    1. ouabain C29H44O12  the  adrenal hormone  made also  in the hypothalamus and heart ; adrenal),                                                                                                                                           2.  active calciferol C27H44O the strengthening and reproductive secosteroid;                                                                                                                                   3 the prime sex/ reproductive steroids  pregnenolone C21H32o2,  and thence progesterone C21H30O2,  testosterone C19H28O2, DHEA C19H24O2. and thence estradiol C18H24O2. and                                                       4 the prime adrenal mineralo/glucocorticoid steroids  cortisol C21H30O5, aldosterone C21H28O5.

But we primates and a few other species lost the ability to synthetise on demand in quantities of grams a day the crucial vitamin C ascorbic acid C6H8O6 that is key to all the above.                                                                                            And vested interests in the Disease Industry want us to believe the biological nonsense  heresy  that we must ingest minimal unprocessed foods- cholesterol, fats (especially dairy, marine oil Omega3 and medium-chain triglyceride- coconut oil)   and abundant vitamins C and D3, but eat abundant processed foods-  refined plant Omega6,  refined carbs- fructose,  sucrose, fruit juice,  cooldrinks, cereals, confections- which overload causes insulin resistance and thus lipidemia,  obesity- metabolic syndrome -diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease.

The Semmelweis reflexA current Wiki essay sums up the current genocidal problems of deliberate deceptions/denialism in Diet, Vitamins and causality  – for ruthless profit and possibly cynical eugenics: “The Semmelweis  effect is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs or paradigms.The term originated from the saga of Dr Ignaz Semmelweis, who discovered that childbed fever mortality rates reduced ten-fold when doctors washed their hands with a chlorine solution before examining  patients. His hand-washing suggestions were rejected by his contemporaries, often for non-medical reasons. For instance, some doctors refused to believe that a gentleman’s hands could transmit disease (see Contemporary reaction to Ignaz Semmelweis).   In his book The Game of Life, Timothy Leary provided the following polemical definition of the Semmelweis reflex: “Mob behavior found among primates and larval hominids on undeveloped planets, in which a discovery of important scientific fact is punished”. The expression has found way into philosophy and religious studies as “unmitigated Humean skepticism concerning causality“.[2]”

Idealism, ethics may evolve; but the  problem of  human bigotry, self-interest and subjective ie personal bias do not diminish, they spread.  It is classic that Semmelweis  (1818-1865) the observant innovative  Catholic medical scientist of his time (before microbes and antiseptics   were known) was fatuously condemned  not just by his jealous  competing Vienna colleagues,  but even by his progressive and reformist  Copenhagen  contemporary obgyn Prof Carl Levy (1808-1865)- who outlived him by only 4 months;

ironically at the same time that their Copenhagen contemporary Dr Soren Kierkegaard (1813-1855) was increasingly  isolating himself on the lonely ethical journey  against the convenience lazzez- faire  tide, writing for ethical life and religion against the hypocrisy  of the Church and becoming the father of both reformist theology and psychology. But unlike Semmelweis who was way ahead of the bioscience  and humanity of his time, Kierkegaard stuck to and isolated himself in   promoting the incompatible ie  blind-faith-based   religion – the dilemma of Abraham’s conviction (or delusion)  to sacrifice his son-  and ethical morality;

and closely followed by    Rudolph Steiner (1861-1925) another more  profound European  thinker who bridged  science, spirituality, progressive education, architecture, agriculture, natural medicine, nutrition,    and   social  reform;

contrary to the rationalists of the 19th Century “Age of Enlightenment” and since, like   British historian-philosopher -ethicist  Winwood Reade (1838 – 1875)  who published the enduring secularist’s bible The Martyrdom of Man (1872), of which  Churchill wrote  25 years later  “he was right but wrong to say it” on the book’s critique of the wrongs of war and religion, of mankind’s selfishness, corruption  and destructiveness (by the greedy aggressive acquisitive minority)  against the  weak masses and the environment) that carries on worse in the 21st century than even the 20th century;                                                                                                                                          and    150 years later bioscientist and philosopher Stephen Jay Gould (1941-2002) rationalized sadly   the non-overlapping Magisteria of Science and Faith, objective “provable” science – which in fact is seldom immutably constant as is mathematics-  and purely faith-based  “unprovable” religious belief.

It was only a year ago that Richard Conniff published his column on   Strange Behaviours, The Medical Martyrs. And the medical  hero martyrs in this review-  Semmelweis,  Margaret Sanger, Drummond  and Pauling –  never made it onto his list.

But then nor did  the modern medical  freedom fighters  Steve Biko,  Agostinho Neto,  Che Guevera. Jonas Savimbi, Neil Aggett, and the living spouse of Steve Biko, Dr Mamphele Ramphele….

Women of the Century apart (like Margaret Sanger, Marie Curie, Eleanor Roosevelt, Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi,  Helen Keller, Benazir BhuttoMother Theresa, Aung San Suu Kyi -many of whom have been martyred),                 it is a philosophical debate whether among the men  the medical martyr  Semmelweis (1818-1865) ranks with  his  19thC contemporaries-   Lincoln (1809-1865), Kierkegaard(1813-1855), Pasteur (1822-95), Lister (1827-1912)  ;  and his successors (and 20th C  leading achievers): Koch(1843-1910), Edison(1847-1931), Steiner (1861-1925), Gandhi(1869-1948),  Weizmann(1874-1952), Churchill (1874-1965), Einstein (1875-1955), Jung (1875-1961), FD Roosevelt(1882-1945), JK Galbraith(1908-2006), Martin Luther King (1929-68), Pauling and Mandela   as arguably giant enduring male leaders -innovators-  teachers and achievers  of the past two centuries.

Unlike eg Socrates, Hippocrates  and Jesus of Nazareth, one of the  five greatest polymath medical and ethical sages of all time Rabbi Dr Moses Maimonides (RamBam)  avoided martyrdom by burying himself in practicing selfless medical service for sultan and peasants alike, and jurisprudence   for his GreekoRoman based  Islamic-Sephardic   times and philosophy, like his guru predecessor Avicenna and his contemporary savant Averroes. .

CONCLUSION:   Today it can  be argued that the denial of effective phamacotherapeutic doses of especially  vitamins C and D3, let alone supportive doses of balancing vits (A, B1,3,5,6,9 & 12, E and K2); the often-crucially  deficient minerals (eg magnesium, sulphur, phosphate, iodine, zinc and selenium), and biologicals like human transdermal balanced HRT, coenzyme Q10, alphalipoic acid, milk thistle, cinnamon, fish oil, chondroglucosamine, DMSO, coconut oil,  is a repetition of denialism of the germ theory,  and of optimal physiological human micronutrition as well as macronutrition. .

      – especially when patients are poor and thus malnourished, and plagued by diarrhoea and stress, TB, lipidemic vascular disease and cancer; and when antiretroviral ART- although life-saving- is even more diabetogenic and neurotoxic  than untreated AIDs.

Even transdermal administration is  better than nothing, perhaps  better  (for the frail and noncompliant eg oldies) than oral or injection eg of vitamins D3 & C and progesterone , metformin, (in addition to the usual magnesium chloride, vits A, BCo & E)  may be beneficial whether by patch or cream for both healing, infection, calming,  heart, circulation, infection, arthritis, osteoporosis,   and neuritis, applied under coconut oil,  codliver oil and DMSO as further analgesic, anti-inflammatory,  memory and absorption enhancers.

REFERENCES:     New reviews bear out the major benefits of micronutrient supplements selenium,  zinc, silver, vits A, B, C, D, E;  and DMSO, sutherlandia and aloe  against HIV-AIDs. and co-infection;

Micronutrient supplementation for children with HIV infection. Irlam JH,  Rollins NC ea . Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013 Oct 11;10:CD010666.

Effect of micronutrient supplementation on disease progression in asymptomatic, antiretroviral-naive, HIV-infected adults in Botswana: a randomized clinical trial.Baum MK,  Marlink R ea .JAMA. 2013 Nov 27;310(20):2154-63. .

Preliminary trial of aloe vera gruel on HIV infection.Olatunya OS,  Oyelami OA. ea, J Altern Complement Med. 2012 Sep;18(9):850-3. doi: 10.1089/acm.2010.0735.

In vitro effects of Sutherlandia frutescens water extracts on cell numbers, morphology, cell cycle progression and cell death in a tumorigenic and a non-tumorigenic epithelial breast cell line.Stander A,  Joubert AM. ea, J Ethnopharmacol. 2009 Jul 6;124(1):45-60

Sulfur in human nutrition and applications in medicine.Parcell S.Altern Med Rev. 2002 ;7(1):22-44.

Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.: Arecaceae): in health promotion and disease prevention.DebMandal M, Mandal S.Asian Pac J Trop Med. 2011 Mar;4(3):241-7

below  are some of the  most recent  94 studies  of vitamin D and human infectionin   published just  in 2013:

New insights on the role of vitamin D in the progression of renal damage: Kidney Blood Press Res. 2013;37:667-78. . Lucisano S, Santoro D.ea  Many studies indicate relationship between hypovitaminosis D and survival, vascular calcification, bone mineral metabolism, immune, cardiovascular and endocrine. Vitamin D analogs reduces proteinuria, in particular through suppression of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) and exerts anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory effects. In particular vitamin D deficiency contribute to an inappropriately activated RAAS, as a mechanism for progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and/or cardiovascular disease. Human and experimental models of CKD showed that vitamin D may interact with B and T lymphocytes and influence the phenotype and function of the antigen presenting cells and dendritic cells, promoting properties that favor the induction of tolerogenic T regulators rather than T effectory. Interstitial fibrosis may be prevented through vitamin D supplementation. .

Should vitamin D supplementation be a regular part of asthma care? Gordon BR.Otolaryngol Clin North Am. 2014 Feb;47:97-108. .Vitamin D (vitD3) deficiency occurs frequently and has profound effects on health, especially asthma.

Vitamin D in asthma and future perspectives.Huang H,  Zarogoulidis K. ea Drug Des Devel Ther. 2013 Sep 23;7:1003-13.

 vitamin D deficiency associated with development of Acinetobacter baumannii infections in critically ill patients?; Türkoğlu M, Aygencel G et al.; Journal of Critical Care 28 (5), 735-40 (Oct 2013)

Association between vitamin D and hepatitis C virus infection: a meta-analysis. Villar LM, Romero-Gomez M. ea World J Gastroenterol. 2013 Sep 21;19(35):5917-24.

Association between prehospital vitamin D status and hospital-acquired bloodstream infections. Quraishi SA, Christopher KB. Ea, Am J Clin Nutr. 2013 Oct;98(4):952-9.

Human parvovirus B19 associated dilated cardiomyopathy. Jain P, Jain A, Khan DN, Kumar M. BMJ Case Rep. 2013 Aug 5;2013.

The role of vitamin D supplementation in the risk of developing pneumonia: three independent case-control studies. Remmelts HH,  van de Garde EM ea  .Thorax. 2013 Nov;68(11):990-6.

Correlation between serum vitamin D level and severity of community acquired pneumonia in young children   Ren J, Sun B, Miao P, Feng X. Zhongguo Dang Dai Er Ke Za Zhi. 2013 Jul;15(7):519-21. Chinese. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23866270

Role of vitamins D, E and C in immunity and inflammation. Shaik-Dasthagirisaheb YB, Pandolfi F. J ea Biol Regul [Correlation between serum vitamin D level and severity of community acquired pneumonia in young children].Homeost Agents. 2013 Apr-Jun;27(2):291-5.

Pre-hospital vitamin D concentration, mortality, and bloodstream infection in a hospitalized patient population.Lange N, Christopher KB ea. Am J Med. 2013 Jul;126(7):640.e19-27.

Vitamin D deficiency in HIV infection: an underestimated and undertreated epidemic. Pinzone MR, Nunnari G. eA Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2013 May;17(9):1218-32.

Vitamin D deficiency and sudden unexpected death in infancy and childhood: a cohort study.Cohen MC, Offiah A, Sprigg A, Al-Adnani M. Pediatr Dev Pathol. 2013 Jul-Aug;16(4):292-300.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 and the risk of pneumonia in an ageing general population.Aregbesola A, Tuomainen TP. ea J Epidemiol Community Health. 2013 ;67:533-6.

Treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis.Nunn A, Phillips PP, Abubakar I.Curr Opin Pulm Med. 2013 ;19(3):273-9.

Role of vitamin D in children with respiratory tract infection.Esposito S, Baggi E, Bianchini S, Marchisio P, Principi N. Int J Immunopathol Pharmacol. 2013 J26(1):1-13.

Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine: an ecological 28-year time series study.Koh GC, Dedicoat M. PLoS One. 2013;8:e57752.

Improving outcomes in patients with psoriasis.Tidman MJ. Practitioner. 2013 ;257:27-30, 3.

vitamin C refs & infection:

Authors’ perspective: What is the optimum intake of vitamin C in humansFrei B, Birlouez-Aragon I, Lykkesfeldt J.  Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr. 2012;52(9):815-29.

Micronutrients at the interface between inflammation and infectionascorbic acid and calciferol. Parts 1 & 2: .Ströhle A, Wolters M, Hahn A. Inflamm Allergy Drug Targets. 2011 ;10:54-74- FULL TEXT IS ON LINE. .

Vitamin C for preventing and treating tetanus Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2008 Apr 16;(2):



The WHO briefing note 13 dated 16 OCTOBER 2009 is particularly relevant to Africa:

Clinical features of severe cases of pandemic influenza: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 says On the positive side, a growing body of evidence indicates that prompt treatment with the antiviral drugs, oseltamivir or zanamivir, reduces the severity of illness and chances of dying. These findings strengthen previous WHO recommendations for early treatment with these drugs for patients who meet treatment criteria, even in the absence of a positive confirmatory test.

In addition to pneumonia directly caused by the virus, evidence shows that pneumonia caused by bacterial co-infection can also contribute to a severe rapidly progressive illness. Bacteria frequently reported include Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus, including methicillin-resistant strains in some cases. As these bacterial co-infections are more frequent than initially recognized, clinicians stressed the need to consider empiric antimicrobial therapy for community acquired pneumonia as an early treatment. .

Disadvantaged populations, such as minority groups and indigenous populations, are disproportionately affected by severe disease. Although the reasons for this heightened risk are not yet fully understood, theories being explored include the greater frequency of co-morbidities, such as diabetes and asthma, often seen in these groups, and lack of access to care.

Although the exact role of obesity is poorly understood at present, obesity and especially morbid obesity have been present in a large portion of severe and fatal cases. Obesity has not been recognized as a risk factor in either past pandemics or seasonal influenza.

Yet the great majority of the South African population, with amongst the highest rates of stress- violence – murder- joblessness- poverty, obesity-diabetes, squalor, malnutrition, AIDs and resistant tuberculosis in the world- ie immunodepletion- has not seen a progressive swine flu epidemic the past two wet weeks. There has not been a swine flu death or seriously ill case reported in South Africa for weeks. Is this surprising when thousands  are dying daily of rampant violence, AIDs, TB,  etc?


And from Sweden, it is reported that while THREE  patients have died there  so far with the swine flu, since vaccination started there a fortnight ago   FIVE patients aged 50 to 90 years have died there  within days of vaccination with the  Glaxo GSK (Pandemrix/Arepanrix- containing aluminium, mercury and squalene) vaccine-  that is also being given in Canada and UK.

Yet the WHO figure today for swine flu deaths in Sweden is still given as only 2.

If death within days of contracting swine flu is attributed to the swine flu virus, then surely unexpected death within days of swine flu vaccine must equally be attributed to that vaccine?

What could be the reason?

It may be that the young are more likely to die from the new H1Ni mutation because with their high immune reactivity  and  not previously exposed to it ie desensitized, so it may cause a cytokine storm that wipes out their lungs.

So why should the elderly be dying after the Glaxo vaccine? Perhaps paradoxically for the same reason as the virus itself is killing children- the Glaxo vaccine contains immune boosters to gear up the body’s antibody response, which response may overwhelm the previously naturally immunized person whose systems are no longer as tough as they were.

It is difficult to find out on the Internet what formulation of anti-swine flu vaccine is being given around the USA. Perhaps it does not contain as much immune booster as the GSK vaccine. It seems that neither suppliers nor the US Govt believe that the public has a right or need  to know what it is being forced to be inoculated with, and pay billions of dollars for. .

Based on the 1918 and 1976 fiascos, and the US license now given vaccine companies to sell whatever untested vaccines they like ie with whatever adjuvants they choose,  without fear of immunity in case of mishap, manufacturers now have a license to make $billions without any risk. The Swedish experience already points the way to carnage- at taxpayers expense since legislators and highranking officials (apart from a convenient chosen scapegoat) are never held accountable.


and now Korea reports 5 sudden deaths after seasonal flu vaccine- all in subjects over 80yrs but one at 51yrs – since the Govt began providing free vaccine shots to the elderly. .

but paradoxically,  parts of Canada have suspended vaccination against seasonal flu for those under 65yrs after evidence that this vaccine may increase the risk of swine flu. And some have suggested that seasonal flu vaccine may cross-protect against swine flu- hence there are some advising that kids under 2 yrs have their seasonal flu vaccine postponed!


neil.burman@gmail.com Cape Town.

This column regularly  reviews and refers  to  the contentious issue of Regulators and Big Pharma suppression and disparagement of natural micronutrient supplements – The Vitamin Wars in which Jack Drummond and Linus Pauling were so embroiled by persecution and assassination-  so as to promote sales of designer drugs and focus on treatment not primary prevention, on the obviously sound shortterm  economic principle that prevention does not pay, Only Disease Pays.

Recent key papers perhaps expose the falseness of the vitamin  conspiracy, the condemnation if not regulatory suppression of free choice  supplements in favour of risky designer drugs like antimicrobials on the FDA’s  (ie the New Drug Industry’s)  efforts to protect the Disease Industry with the self-serving but poor argument  that experience and observational and evolutionary evidence are not good enough, only randomized controlled trial evidence will do.

This despite the major studies that vitamin D in optimal  dose, like vitamin C, in  fact in optimal multinutrient combination, offers better protection – prevention and treatment- than any designer drugs against all diseases, from acute and chronic infections eg  flu, HIV and other  STDs,   and tuberculosis and other bacterial (and parasitemia) infections, to autoimmune, lipid- hypertensive-vascular disease, depression and cancer, prevention of frailty and fractures, even sexual-reproductive health, dementia and multiple sclerosis – as Dr John Cannell of the Vitamin D Council repeatedly details.

Earlier this year a  research centre in San Francisco estimates benefit of increased vitamin D status in reducing the economic burden of disease in western EuropeThe reduction in direct plus indirect economic burden of disease was based on increasing the mean serum 25(OH)D level to 100nmol/L, which could be achieved by a daily intake of 2000-3000 IU of vitamin D.  For 2007, the reduction is estimated at euro187,000 million/year. The estimated cost of 2000-3000 IU of vitamin D3/day along with ancillary costs such as education and testing might be about euro10,000 million/year. Sources of vitamin D could include a combination of food fortification, supplements, and natural and artificial UVB irradiation, if properly acquired. Steps to increase serum 25(OH)D levels can be implemented now based on what is already known.

A University Toronto study last month on    How to optimize vitamin D supplementation to prevent cancer, based on cellular adaptation and hydroxylase enzymology by Prof Robert Vieth Univ Toronto, Canada  analyzes the question of “what makes an ‘optimal’ vitamin D intake” ie  ‘what serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] do we need to stay above to minimize risk of disease?’. This simplistic question ignores the evidence that fluctuating concentrations of 25(OH)D may in themselves be a problem, even if concentrations do exceed a minimum desirable level. It explains why higher 25(OH)D concentrations are not good if they fluctuate, and that desirable 25(OH)D concentrations are ones that are both high and stable.”

A new study last week from Finland probes the benefits of vitamin D in institutionalized adults with intellectual disability ID, who may eat poorly and seldom get any sunshine. . Those given 800iu vitamin D daily for 6 months did better than those given simply 150 000iu imi at the start, when all had a mean vit D bloodlevel of 40nmol/L, the oral dose group having a final level of 82 compared to 62 nmol/L in the other group. PTH fell in both groups, but target D3 level of 80 was attained in 42 % orally vs 12%  imi.

and now this week Pietras ea from Boston  detail how Vitamin D2 Treatment  50 000iu fortnightly for up to 6 years for Vitamin D Deficiency and Insufficiency in Boston increased vitamin D levels from 67  to 117 nmol/L, without change in blood calcium, and no kidney stones- but with persistent vitamin D deficiency in perhaps 10%, for a variety of possible reasons. They agree that oral vitamin D3 is the best preparation. This is retailed in South Africa for as little as  R6 (($0.80)  per 50 000iu. In fact, unless the patient has shortterm absolute contraindication to oral-enteral  supplement, there is no better (ie parenteral)  route  for vitamin D3 if not all supplements than via the stomach.

The short answer is that, from local and international experience with such doses, there is indeed no evidence of harm, only benefit- ie nothing to lose. Prudence dictates query about history of hypercalcemia/ kidney stone problems, and baseline and followup check of at least serum calcium phosphate and creatinine if not also vitamin D  levels, to judge whether dose of 2000iu or 10 000iu/day (or 50 000iu every week or month)  is both enough to produce stable blood level in the range of 125 to 150nmol/L, and safe for the individual.