Tag Archives: swine flu

SWINE FLU UPDATE . ODDS OF DYING OF SWINE FLU 1 IN A MILLION? WHY REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN MORTALITY? WHY KAFKAESQUE U.S.GOVT.RESPONSE?………… IF SWINE FLU IS RAMPANT IN N.AMERICA,………… WHY STILL NO CLINICAL VACCINE TRIAL RESULTS? WHY THE CONSPIRACY TO AVOID RCT OF CLINICAL EFFICACY OF S.F.VACCINE?

neil.burman@gmail.com Cape Town

update 24 Feb 2914   Todays JAMA on-line- first prerelease article about  the current resurgence of Critically Ill Patients With Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Infection in 2014 laments its high deathrate  from acute respiratory and multiorgan failure adults in young adults,  and its guarded response to antiviral designer drugs like Tamiflu.   But it fails to mention vitamins and minerals, although these have dramatic benefit in both preventing infections, and treating flu,  AIDS and  TB.

Flu season: Vitamin D versus H1N1 Flu ,    Hormones Matter and Vit C cures H1N1  highlight the safety and efficacy of vigorous vitamin D  & C repletion, never mind when combined with other antimicrobial supplements like the other vitamins, and the minerals selenium, zinc, iron, iodine, and antimicrobial plant extracts like sutherlandia and  galega officinalis etc.

Guess which Big Pharma is the biggest manufacturer of vitamins in the world? Roche. and guess  which company makes Tamiflu?   Roche–  which refused to release the data from all of its trials, the adverse effects far exceeding its benefits.

But nutritional supplements are not patentable, so they are studiously ignored by the Disease Industry for whom only profit matters.

More about the lethal effect of deriding and suppressing good remedies under the-2014-virus-season-dawns-avoiding-the-semmelweis-reflex-natural-antibiotics-vitamins-c-d3-avoiding-vitamin-denialism –  The Semmelweis Reflex.

update 16 Feb 2014: it’s taken 5 years, but at last the fraud of  Big Pharma and the Regulators, Governments they support is being exposed in more depth:

the Swine Flu pandemic of 2009- set up by the Vaccine Industry paying vast bribes to world Regulators and Governments-  to promote the useless if not risky flu vaccine and Tamiflu drugs, is being confirmed and investigated, as reported by www.NaturalNews.com email newsletter: Even the science journals are now investigating the total scam of the WHO’s flu pandemic fear mongering. Here’s what you need to know: http://www.naturalnews.com/043932_Big_Pharma_World_Health_Organization_flu_scam.html 

and the wider Multiple Vaccine MMR fraud affecting especially infants and children (the gastroenteropathy- Autism link), that has been centre stage for 15 years, is analysed in detail by Dr Andrew Wakefield in his new book Callous Disregard.

Update 15 January 2010: current commentaries:                                                   Mary budinger@earthlink.netn is quoted as writing:

INQUIRIES GET UNDERWAY INTO CONFLICTS OF INTEREST Governments heeded warnings from the United Nations that there would be millions of deaths unless nations promptly proceeded with the controversial vaccination plan promoted by the UN’s entity for health matters, the WHO. With billions of dollars of unneeded inventory now going to waste, government leaders turned angry and started to demand hard answers.

Articles in the European press have repeatedly called into question the myriad ties between vaccine manufacturers and decision makers in the WHO.

The French opposition Socialist Party described that country’s national campaign as an “extravagant fiasco” and demanded a parliamentary investigation.

In early January 2010, the Council of Europe member states announced they are launching an inquiry into the influence of the pharmaceutical companies on the global swine flu campaign, focusing especially on extent of the drug industry’s influence on WHO. The text of the resolution says, in part, “In order to promote their patented drugs and vaccines against flu, pharmaceutical companies influenced scientists and official agencies, responsible for public health standards, to alarm governments worldwide and make them squander tight health resources for inefficient vaccine strategies and needlessly expose millions of healthy people to the risk of an unknown amount of side-effects of insufficiently tested vaccines. The ‘bird-flu’-campaign (2005/06) combined with the ‘swine-flu’-campaign seem to have caused a great deal of damage not only to some vaccinated patients and to public health-budgets, but to the credibility and accountability of important international health-agencies.”[1]

The WHO’s “false pandemic” flu campaign is “one of the greatest medicine scandals of the century,” according to Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, Chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. “The definition of an alarming pandemic must not be under the influence of drug-sellers,” he adds.

Wodarg, a doctor and former SPD member of the German Bundestag, says that the “false pandemic” campaign began last May in Mexico City, when a hundred or so “normal” reported influenza cases were declared to be the beginning of a threatening new pandemic, although there was little scientific evidence for this. Nevertheless the WHO, “in cooperation with some big pharmaceutical companies and their scientists, re-defined pandemics,” removing the statement that “an enormous amount of people have contracted the illness or died” from its existing definition and replacing it by stating simply that there has to be a virus, spreading beyond borders and to which people have no immunity.

These new standards forced politicians in most states to react immediately and sign marketing commitments for additional and new vaccines against swine flu, through “sealed contracts” under which orders are secured in advance and governments take almost all responsibility. “In this way, the producers of vaccines are sure of enormous gains without having any financial risks. So they just wait until WHO says ‘pandemic’ and activate the contracts,” says Dr. Wodarg.[1]

The Japanese health ministry announced it is launching an inquiry into deaths and side effects from the vaccine. Japan recorded 104 deaths, roughly 80 percent of whom are people aged 70 or older who had chronic diseases or disorders. Additionally, some 1,900 cases of side effects had been reported from medical institutions.

In the U.S., President Obama had decreed the H1N1 pandemic a national emergency, prompting some analysts to warn about increased governmental powers. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services had issued a “formal declaration of a Public Health Emergency” in April of 2009, even though there had only been 20 confirmed cases of the H1N1 virus.

To date, the U.S. has not followed in the footsteps of the Council of Europe.
[1] http://www.pharmatimes.com/WorldNews/article.aspx?id=17147

William Campbell Douglass II, M.D. writes:

How Big Pharma profits off fear            With Big Pharma raking in billions off swine flu fears, the last thing they need is a government handout.

Yet Uncle Sam is busy playing Daddy Warbucks with YOUR lunch money, helping Swiss drugmaker Novartis open a new vaccine plant in North Carolina. You’ve generously contributed around $700 million to help Novartis build their shiny new drug factory — $220 million three years ago, and $486 million this year.

And I’ll bet you didn’t even get a thank-you card.

In return for this bad investment in a foreign company, the U.S. government gets the right to PURCHASE vaccine for 17 years. Not only that, but these vaccines will be created using a new and unproven biotech method that relies on dog kidneys instead of chicken eggs.

In other words, this plan really is a dog.

I’m a doctor, not an economist. But if this is someone’s idea of stimulus, you do the math: The plant now employs 191 people making an average of $50,000 per year. At that rate, it would take around 75 years for the government money put into this joint to make its way back into our own economy.

Slice off a few years if you believe them when they say they’ll ultimately employ 350 people when the plant is fully operational in 2013 — in any case, it’ll be decades before Americans ever see that cash again.

But don’t worry — I’m sure somewhere, a poor Swiss ski resort is hosting a group of free-spending Novartis executives.

Maybe they’ll be joined by their yodeling friends at the World Health Organization. A report at World Net Daily says at least three of the WHO’s top flu “experts” have financial ties to vaccine makers.

That sure explains a lot.

Meanwhile, anyone who doubts that money is the real driving force behind swine flu fears only needs to check out Business Week magazine.

A recent headline there tells whole story by itself: “How Big Pharma Profits from Swine Flu.”

Careful there, Business Week. That kind of thinking would have gotten you branded a radical conspiracy theorist just a few months ago!

Just check out these big paydays off swine flu vaccine sales:
•  $1.7 billion for GlaxoSmithKline
•  $700 million for Novartis
•  $500 million for Sanofi-Aventis
Those figures are for the fourth quarter of 2009 alone — analysts expect them to grab similar piles of cash for the first quarter of 2010 as everyone from President Obama to Santa Claus push these needless vaccines on you and your children.

Business Week also notes that vaccine sales are booming just in time: Patents on prescription drugs worth a combined $135 billion in annual sales are about to expire… with no new meds ready to replace them.

And that means you can expect another phony swine flu scare any moment now.

Never feeding the flu fears”.

And tp://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/01/02/Harvard-Takes-it-Back-and-Says-Swine-Flu-was-Oversold.aspx

These need to be read in tandem with the other vaccine sagas:

Martin Walker’s ongoing expose of  The Drug Industry-GMC-NHS  vendetta  against Dr  Andrew Wakefield  for daring to question the benefits of mass vaccination of infants;

about the risks versus benefit of vaccinating pubertal boys and girls against cervix cancer;

and the mad search for an HIV vaccine against a disease which is in fact a sociological problem of  nutritional immunodeficiency upon which is superimposed sexual violence as in rape  or voluntary recklessness usually against (usually)  innocent partners – promiscuity   in multiple concurrent sexual relationships as currently promoted  by sexual predators  like Tiger Woods and the illegitimate and corrupt  South African “president” Jacob Zuma. .

UPDATE 16 December:

It is now 15  weeks since this column  expressed grave doubt about the cost-benefit of the touted anti-virals Tamiflu and Relenza .

All hell has broken loose over drug company fraud- which could only have happened in collusion with big politicians:

while Bayer and BMS Bristol-Myer Squibb are under heavy attack, and Pfizer paid a record $2.3billion fine to settle, and Novartis and Baxter are under the vaccine fraud microscope,

not only has proven  swine flu  mercifully fallen far below pandemic deathrate and sickness predictions,  while big batches of vaccine (GSK)  have had to be pulled due to serious complications even in Canada- and GSK directors /promoters too are under scrutiny;

but predictions about the fraud of massive anti-influenza drug promotion have proven all too true.  The BMJ today is full of doubts since a solitary Japanese author questioned the veracity of selectively published let alone unpublished Tamiflu studies orchestrated by Roche.

As some say, in marketing and disease-mongering,  its like in love and war-  anything goes – and provided it promotes American corporate interests, the FDA goes along.. ..

20091111 A This WW1 Armistice day : A new report quotes the CDC projection that “4000 rather than 1200 Americans have died of swine flu since April.. and that the  University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research thinks deaths are likely to be in the 30,000-to-40,000 range, and would have a long way to go to even get there… The vaccine should also cut the death rate.”.

Yesterday an appeal from the FDA Commissioner of Food and Drugs went out to all to promote the swine flu vaccine. But Dr Hamburg does not quote one iota of evidence that the vaccine does or will do more good than harm- especially in those at highest risk, the pregnant, the  old and ill and infants. She fails to address the cardinal issue: why have no trials so far assessed the benefit of the vaccine (on swine flu infectivity and morbidity)  against placebo on a background of well-known anti-infective natural safe supplements?

It is perfectly obvious that with an apparent infectivity rate of swine flu well above 1:1000, but an apparent linked mortality rate of  2 per million of population per month through September-October- the USA- the FDA CDC and the other interlinked countries at highest risk- Canada, Australia,  UK, Brazil, Argentine –  had a duty to see that the vaccines were immediately tested in double-blind RCTs against placebo injection in volunteers–  at least the apparently moderate risk ie the well young, but most of all  in the high-risk groups ie the age extremes, pregnancy and those with serious chronic diseases.

From the already established  spread-, fatality- and complication rate, it is obvious that, during the current upsurge reported by these countries, it would take no more than a few weeks – at a vaccination rate even in Sweden of 2million people in a few weeks, with spread rate of thousands of new  tested cases a month, to produce the crucial answers- how far does the vaccine cut the infection rate, and  the morbidity rate and degree.

Yet according to the NIH Clinical trials.gov registry, there is still no such trial listed. The FDA decided it doesnt require efficacy data on the vaccines.

So it appears that the Authorities in all pandemic  countries are guilty of gross deception- at best  that they know that the vaccine is pretty useless, or worse, that they dont know – and don’t want to know till the vaccine is all used up. Dastardly conspiracy theorizing, by sober scientists,  but that’s what the Authorities’ declared deliberate omission (evasion of such a basic obvious  efficacy trial)  creates.

At least there is a double-blind placebo-controlled  clinical trial of Tamiflu in progress in Hong Kong, in 300 patients with the swine flu, lasting a year. . The outcome is likely to be that, if tamiflu doesnt prove to be worse than the placebo, 300 is far too few subjects to show any significant benefit over placebo.

Bloombergs reports today that Norway has had 6300 confirmed cases by last week and 16 related deaths by Nov 9, but while Sweden had cases doubling weekly to the last week of October, there have still been only 3 related deaths reported . However on Nov 9th perhaps the 4th related death was reported in Sweden.  . But Sweden has banned media reporting on swine flu vaccine deaths, which stood at 5 after 2million vaccinations.

It looks like the cumulative swine-flu related deathrate in Europe has reached 0.8 per million population.

20091109  The past week: only one new case has been reported in Southern Africa (Namibia) and no linked deaths in Africa; in Canada between 3-5 Nov there were 14 new linked deaths (14% increase);   in Netherlands 7 people died in the week to 6 Nov, with the total there still only around 20 attributed to the swine flu.

The USA latest  CDC report shows that in the 2 months   to end October influenza-associated death rate was  2 per million of population per month; for comparison, in 2006 the monthly deathrate  was 770 per million, of which influenza and pneumonia  contributed only 2.3%, the 8th  leading cause  after cardiac-, stroke, malignant, lower respiratory, accident, diabetes and alzheimer causes.  Since – accidents aside- all of these commonest fatal  diseases are precisely the highrisk patients that die most of influenza anyway,  it is unclear whether the present increase in ILS ( influenza-like syndrome)  deaths has significantly increased overall mortality

SWINE FLU 1918: There is a graphic  interview on November  5th with a living survivor of the 1918  genuine flu epidemic, which killed some 2.5-3% ie 25 000 of  every million  people   (5% in India) by blue death- drowning-  in at least America, France and Germany, far more in India.  That  H1N1 plague lasted at least 2 years,  infecting perhaps 1/3 of the world population of 1.5billion,  with 50% cross-infection  rate and mortality rate of between 2% and 20% of those infected.

SWINE FLU 1976:  that outbreak never spread beyond Fort Dix, where one victim died. But in the ensuing government panic, 22% of the population were given a hastily prepared vaccine, followed by 1098 cases of Guillaine-Barre syndrome, at least half of which were attributed to the H1N1 vaccine, with at least 25 deaths. A recent review puts this risk (of GBS after H1N1 vaccination) at about 1 in a million- far  higher than  there is now of  healthy people dying of the current swine flu outside the Americas and Australia.

SWINE FLU 2009: it is cold comfort to see the current swine flu  global picture on Wiki at the end of October- a true deathrate of probably <1 per million after at least 6 months. The big question is, will there be more waves of it or, worse, a deadlier mutation caused by hasty vaccination?

The biggest  question, mystery, now is:  if swine flu is indeed pandemic  and spreading at least in America and Australia, why are there still no placebo-controlled trials published confirming that the vaccines and antiviral drugs reduce infectivity, severity and mortality of the 2009 H1N1 virus?

INCIDENCE: While bigger countries have stopped testing all but key or high-risk suspect cases for swine flu,   the smaller countries’ figures of confirmed cases relative to population size are instructive:

closed communities like the Cook Islands, Hong Kong and Macau respectively found incidence of 0.9% – 0.47%;

but only 0.07 -0.25% in other “ islands” world wide – Caymans, New Zealand, Jersey, Bahrain, Iceland, Marshall, Australia, Malta.

Mainland countries that apparently continue screening all who report in with flu symptoms – like Portugal and Belgium -found respectively 0.24% and 0.08% of suspects positive for  swine flu.

FATALITY: As regards death rates: Mexico and South Africa reported apparently related deaths among confirmed swine flu cases as approx 0.7%/1000 infections ; Australia & Japan approx 0.5%; Hong Kong 0.12%; and Germany and Portugal approx 0.02%.

Multiplying  the incidence rate by the case  fatality rate- or more simply dividing the number of deaths by the population- suggests that if you the reader  are generally well, the odds of  your  dying of swine flu are far below  1 in a million; whereas infants, or the elderly,  the chronically ill or  the obese are at far higher risk of dying anyway.  So far there have been some 1500 deaths in 308million Americans recorded in people testing positive for swine flu- that, is some 5 deaths per million- but by epidemiological  reasoning by an  international team, most of those deaths were already in pregnant or  other (chronically) high risk patients  and therefore not attributable primarily  to the swine flu itself- they were already, knowingly or not, at high background risk..

1500 deaths in 6 months  in America is ~0.8 deaths  per million per month, but the  background- all-cause  death rate there averages about 68 per million per month by last CDC count.

Japan and India with the highest population density in the world for  big  developed populations are remarkable – since the first case in their spring 6 months ago,  similar  population deathrates so far  of only 0.00004%  or  0.4 per million.

whereas in USA the official attributed  swine flu death rate so far is  12 fold higher ie  about 0.0005% ie  5 per million. North America’s epidemic  had only a month headstart on the rest of the world.

These fatality rates may be the maximum theoretically, since even in these first-world countries, the great majority of those who did have swine flu symptoms would not have reported in to be tested.

While most cases of swine flu would have been unrecorded- shrugged off-  in both developed and poor countries it is likely that many deaths at the time of maximum scare may have been wrongly ascribed to swine flu. This is what the naysayers about deaths after vaccination (whether against eg HPV- cervix cancer or against swine flu) are arguing strongly- that with mass vaccination superimposed on normal deathrates, the deaths within a few hours of vaccination or within days of  flu  are simply co-incidence, they are unrelated to the co-incidental  vaccination or the flu….

In Canada, “The majority of suspect swine flu patients— over 85%  (in intensive care)    — have some associated medical risk factors.”

The current NICD  stats for South Africa show that 77% of those who died with swine flu had  relevant co-morbidity  – 50% had HIV, 28% were peripartum women, 21% were obese,  11% diabetic, and 9 to 11% had active TB and/or serious cardiac disease. 91deaths is 1.8deaths per million – surprisingly low in the most unequal and reckless population in the world with massive overweight and ischemic heart disease;   the poor  great  majority having  been  increasingly deprived of jobs, education and quality health care, and suffering the  highest AIDs, tuberculosis,  infantile and maternal  mortality rates,  due to criminally negligent government since ‘independence’ 15years ago which has left the majority increasingly worse off.

So while the 2009 swine flu infectivity  the world over  is  probably far above 1%,  the fatality rates  causally related to the flu virus in those who contracted the swine flu in developed prosperous northern  countries (eg Europe, USA, Canada, Japan) was surely well below 0.03% ie <3:10 000;   and in poor countries like RSA and Mexico and India, probably similar since the virus would have spread far more densely in crowded poor communities with  higher malnutrition and underlying common diseases- but more protected by  having already survived poverty-related infections but also having less robust immune response.

It remains a mystery of rational reasoning as to how the wildfire spread of the 2009 H1N1 virus, and the low linked case fatality rates,  justify the promotion by first-world countries of ‘pandemic’ panic and mass treatment  with untested vaccines  and risky antivirals- especially when the vaccines contain  notoriously risky adjuvants like mercury, aluminium and squalene, let alone extracts (and possibly prions)  from species other than humans. These countries seem to have learned nothing from experience the past century with influenza, polio and HIV.

The reasons may be simply economic- Only Disease Pays, it’s a huge boost for healthcare providers, and manufacturers of  “antiviral” drugs, test kits, anti-swine flu vaccines, masks, disinfectants etc.

Why are there such differences in reported swine flu deathrates in similar countries?

Examining regions in the ~  6 months since the the pandemic hit them:

EUROPE: the biggest nation- Germany with 80million people has had  20 000 people test positive ie 1 in 40 000, with 9 deaths  ie about 0.1 in a million of population.

AlpineSwitzerland with almost 8million people has tested all suspicious cases with only 1000 confirmed swine flu, and no suspected deaths – but it  has  banned the  Glaxo  vaccine Pandemrix from being used in  pregnant women, children or young adults (below 18 years of age) or elderly (above 60 years of age).

Scandanavia: In Sweden this Glaxo vaccine has already been associated with 5 deaths in the first 2 weeks  –  5 deaths per (2) million population vaccinated in a month   -with  only some 2000 flu cases documented. Yet   so far in 6 months  only 3 -4 deaths there – 0.3 -o.4 per million population-  have been associated with swine flu itself . If 5 deaths there  soon after the swine flu vaccine , out of (2) million people vaccinated in less than a month,  are co-incidental- a vaccine-related death rate of 1:200  000. – one can equally argue that 4 deaths with the swine flu in a month  in a population of 9.2 million is not a causal relationship but co-incidence of death from other causes and not from the passing mild swine flu.. Norway has had 15 deaths ie 3/million; but Finland only 0.4  and Denmark only 0.16 per million. These and Switzerland are all cold countries with some 33million total population, 22deaths representing a fatality rate of 0.66 per million- the same as the average for Europe. Can there be such significant difference in prosperity and social services accross the EU  to explain the vastly different death rates? Or is it just statistical vagary, or  the fault of sensationalist disease-mongering  media?

A warmer but still cool  country like Germany has a swine flu deathrate of only 0.1/million, whereas the warmer British Isles have a rate of 2.5/million. And the  four  Greko-Latin European nations vary from 0.5 in Portugal & Greece  to 1.1 in  Spain to 4/million in Italy. Why the 8 fold difference? they all  take plenty of wine, olive products and a Mediterranean diet; and many citizens travel widely between these old countries and their migrant kith and kin at  the fountainhead  of swine flu  in North America. .

The overall European swine flu deathrate is only 0.78/million, with France – stretching from the Alps to two warmer  major oceans – similar, and the Low Countries only  0.5..  Why deathrates in three prosperous countries  genetically so linked to the rest of Europe but climatically so  diverse as  Norway, Italy  and UK   are so much above the rest of Europe remains to be unraveled.

CONTINENTAL DIFFERENCES:  in poor  South America there are also wide differences with 1.5 / million in Argentine but 7 per million in Brazil and the whole continent,   compared to 3 per million in the colder  North America;  4/million in the warmer  Caribbean; and  9/million in Australasia.  Why should deathrates be the high  in the Americas and Australasia, but 90%  lower in Japan, India and most of Europe?

But presumably the bigger and poorer the population, the fewer swine flu deaths  get reported, tested and  attributed- this may apply equally in Southern Africa, as in India, China and Russia.

Despite the vastly different climate conditions under which the majority of their people lives, the American deathrate so far – 5/million- is 25% higher than in Canada and poor Mexico‘s 4/million. But the USA admits that most cases of virus-like pneumonia are no longer being tested for H1N1, there are assumed to be due to it. Yet some sources say that this assumption grossly overestimates the  actual swine flu.

COMPARISON WITH AIDS: while the flu also  knows no social barriers- it merely spreads faster and bites faster  in denser and more vulnerable  poor populations- AIDS remains largely a scourge of ignorance, violence (male) and recklessness(male)- especially amongst politicians, who are  amongst the most promiscuous people globally, but eg  in South Africa also the cruelest in deliberately depriving the population until very recently  of both a semblance of social security and antiretrovirals, while spending the abundance of tax revenue on corrupt profligacy – in unneeded weaponry, and personal luxuries like mansions and (to this day) German limos.

Hence the prevalence rate of AIDS varies from above  15% in Southern Africa ( antenatal HIV prevalence of 30%)  to between o.1 and 1% in the rest of the world; with mortality varying from 50% within a year  of clinical presentation in the malnourished squatter millions  without treatment, to 50% survival after 20years with decent living standard and ARVs etc. In South Africa this year AIDS is said to kill a thousand a day ie 20 per million of population every day ie 7200 per million (7.2% of the population) per year- against a crude birthrate of 2% giving a nett population decrease of 5.2% a year, reducing life expectancy at birth to only 49years .

THE VACCINE  SAGA: MORE DECEPTION WITH MISLEADING TRIAL RESULTS :

HIV-AIDS  VACCINE:  after >30years  there is still no proven safe  relevant vaccine in sight against the HIV.  But if rape and male reckless promiscuity  were stopped, there would be no need for a vaccine since cross-infection is so easily avoided.

SWINE FLU VACCINE: Since there has been  no  trial published of the clinical benefit of the  flu vaccine, no objective  information whatsoever is available to judge it’s efficacy versus risk  in  swine flu prevention.   No significant double-blind  trial has been done offering the flu vaccine versus placebo injection.  The first uncontrolled apparently open trial  started  in Australia 22 July, with results  promised and delivered within 6 weeks ie 2 months ago. It is strange indeed that just 8 weeks after the start of that trial, the Australian govt approved the vaccination campaign. . A medical media report of 11 Sept says only 240 people were enrolled in the trial, age 18 to 64 years ie outside the peak risk agegroups at the extremes of life; and the only result released was that the subjects had a good antibody response.

Even the NEJM official trial report gives no clinical results as to protection- although  the New York Times got it wrong in reporting that the “convincing  trial showed robust  protection” . This conclusion is hysterical nonsense since  the only data reported was the antibody response, which does not mean there will  necessarily be any clinical protection against the swine flu.  There can be  no conclusion  as to whether the vaccine reduced the swine flu infection rate or severity because there was no placebo group, double blind or otherwise. Similarly, the Australian trial in children 10 to 17 years old,  the Spanish trial in toddlers, the USA trial  in pregnancy,   and the Chinese trial, showed good antibody response by 10 days – but gave no result about clinical protection.

So all we need is a simple 2 x 2 RCT of  flu vaccine versus placebo vaccine, with all cases independently covered by eg a supplement of zinc plus  highdose vitamin betacarotene + C + D + K plus fish oil as baseline safety net,  or placebo. The most important question remains: given the huge proven benefit of  safe vigorous doses of these cheap freely available supplements against both flu and AIDS, do people need anything more than a multisupplement to reduce risk of all diseases?  and does adding a costly hazardous H1N1 vaccine on top of that give worthwhile better protection against swine flu? The answer must be overwhelmingly NO, given the risk of at least GBS if not anaphylactic death after H1N1 vaccines. Why take a vaccine if it’s risk is  far worse than that of the swine flu itself, let alone  simple all-system multinutrient prevention that reduces all-cause mortality by at least a third?

But the last thing that vaccine manufacturers,  marketeers and governments  want is a negative answer, so they dont allow such a trial- is it because they lack courage, or that they already know the answer is negative, or worst of all,  that the vaccine is worse than useless?

Some may argue that it is unethical to offer nothing ie double placebo in such an RCT with rare but arguably serious virus-related complications. So all could be covered by at least a simple standard multivite a day at below RDA levels- which by all accounts gives marginal if any benefits except in the malnourished.

Obviously the difficulty with such a virus trial  is cost and invasiveness:  in  an RCT of the vaccine, one ideally needs to have  both serological and culture screening for this hybrid H1N1 virus at baseline – as well as placebo-controlled evidence of reduction in disease. Since the swine flu is so far milder than seasonal flu, there is no other way of defining whether a specific swine flu  vaccine is of significant overall benefit against this H1N1 virus.

Trumpeting “pandemic” and compulsory vaccination with an unproven vaccine  is a great distraction and profiteering  for governments-  presidents and the Big Business that controls them and their agencies,   beset with insoluble political and corruption scandals as are most. Recently an Australian anti-vaccination group published a damning cross-referenced  litany of evidence against  the trillion$ vaccination industry.

The current “pandemic” distraction with swine flu while they wage war on their peoples, effective martial law implemented or foreseen  in the USA, China,  and South Africa (predicted conversion of the police to a massive politicized  paramilitary, nationalization of all major industry and business and provincial governments), is beyond the imagination of most fiction writers except masters like Margaret Atwood – ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’;  Jose Saramago – ‘Blindness’ and ‘Seeing’;  Gabriel Garcia Marquez ; Franz Kafka.  .

We can only continue to pray, hope that sanity will prevail , that  RCTs  of  both the swine flu vaccine and antiviral drugs are  being done  to prove that they are both useful, necessary and safe. There is no evidence on the internet of this,   suggesting that conspiracy theory may  prove correct – that the whole vaccination and antiviral drugs if not the severity of the ‘pandemic’  are simply the result of disease-mongering for profit, like ever-popular  war-mongering on every continent..

SWINE FLU (?CONSPIRACY) UPDATE- PANDEMIC THAT NEVER WAS: WHAT A WINDFALL FOR THE UNITED $TATES OF EURO-AMERICA.

n d burman cape town

News on the 2009  swine flu pours in daily- see this column’s   last report only 4 days ago.

Roche’s response arrived a few days later.

Conspiracy theory: Definition: “A  theory seeking to explain a disputed case or matter as a plot by a secret group or alliance”

We all disdain  farfetched conspiracy theories, but some eventually prove true- especially in war, politics and Big Business.  The British Intelligence deception  of the Germans in WW2 over the Sicily landings with The Man Who Never Was was one of the cleverest successful conspiracies at least of WW2. Conspiracy was the downfall of Richard Nixon, but not of  Joseph’s murderous brothers in planning sell him off to slavers going down to Egypt and then telling Jacob that his favourite youngest son had been eaten by a lion; and not of George W Bush- the most successful rogue politician and ruthless warmonger of modern times despite his irrelevant defeat by Al Gore in 2000  in the democratic popular vote. The truth about the $multibillion Armsgate conspiracy (arms which South Africa never needed) between top ANC politicians and various European arms traders is still being suppressed, to protect present and past presidents, politicians and business moguls  in South Africa and Europe…

But since no evidence can be found on Google, Pubmed or the USA Government websites, it is a given  that neither the ”Authorities”  (the Government Health Agencies NIH-CDC-FDA,  the WHO and the European Union) can produce any evidence to justify the claimed pandemic state of 2009 swine flu or its major danger which justify a national state of emergency declaration– in effect, martial law. Truly following in George W Bush’s footsteps after 9/11. Why would Government conceal such public health evidence if there was any? ..

Nor can the same world  ”Authorities”  that regulate and recommend them nor the EuroAmerican  manufacturers  produce any randomized double-blind  controlled trial RCT evidence in humans to satisfy regulatory criteria  for registration and prescription  of  either the recommended (swine flu) antiviral drugs Tamoxifen or Relenza, or vaccines based on both the  hyperinflated but unproven imminent risk theory of this disease or the efficacy versus harm from these costly agents.

So as other sober voices ask, on what evidence  is the USA basing its claims of a dangerous pandemic,  and  its mandatory recommendations? – which are binding on those Authorities’ prudent health professionals as well as on its state employed patients.

The continuously updated USA surveillance report notes explicitly that “Several states have abandoned the counting of confirmed cases. This step is justified by the finding, that at this point of the year more than 98% of detected flu cases are caused by the novel flu. Other states have started to report the number of hospitalized cases instead of infected cases. The CDC discontinued reporting of individual confirmed and probable cases of novel H1N1 infection on July 24, 2009.”  So there are no statistics from the USA to show that morbidity and deaths from swine flu are increasing, let alone attributable primarily to the 2009 H1N1 virus.     In fact  evidence apparently  suggests the opposite since mid-October.

On October 9, 2009, Dr Gary Null & healthcare associates filed for a USA court injunction to stop the FDA distribution of   swine flu vaccines since these violate Federal Law “in its hasty approval of four swine flu vaccines by failing to scientifically determine either the safety or efficacy of the vaccines.”

Profit Driven Swine Flu Propaganda – Pump Up the Volume – is a series of Natural News articles since October 21 by Evelyn Pringle, health freedom writer exposing a conspiracy by rogue USA Government’s arms and Disease  Industry to extort the biggest profiteering in history from drugs and vaccines forced on  billions of people -who may (as in the  previous ’emergency” 1976 pandemic that never happened) derive far more illness than benefit from these unproven drugs.

Authorities – the FDA itself, no less- have hastily on 15 October racked up up this brutal campaign – now against Dr Andrew Weil – to suppress natural nutrition approaches that both work and are safe so as to favour their Disease Industries’ snakeoil profiteering. Under the mantle of no less than a Presidential State of Emergency declared this day October 24  over the nonexistent swine flu pandemic, they impose a ban on  disseminating knowledge- the benefits of proven naturally beneficial nutritionals  eg vitamin C; or astragalus – despite decades of evidence supporting it–  while at the same time stating blatantly ” The Secretary of Health and Human Services, under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act… has determined that a public health emergency exists nationwide involving the H1N1 Flu Virus that affects or has the significant potential to affect national security. Following this determination and in response to requests from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, FDA issued letters authorizing the emergency use of certain unapproved and uncleared products or unapproved or uncleared uses of approved or cleared products...” ie vaccines designed and hastily manufactured only this year, with no  efficacy trials to show reduction in serious illness and deaths and no longterm human safety record, containing known dangerous ingredients.


As if millennia of genocidal suppression of free choice and rights – the Martyrdom of Man – by those in power since recorded history began  was not enough. The greedy and ruthless learn well to manipulate power progressively to subvert justice and security  for all, as Churchill, Ivan Illich, JK Galbraith, Margaret Attwood, Tom Bower, Joe Stiglitz, Naomi Klein, Al Gore so eloquently wrote, and Kissinger’s Kindergarten (Bush father and son, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz) have so profitably  done  the past 35 years for themselves but not the nations including the USA that they sabotaged..

And today Dr Joe Mercola   reports on the CBS expose of massive US  CDC disinformation on their website  about the swine flu “epidemic” in the USA – which is reportedly contradicted by the individual US state health spokespeople.  Finland and Russia at least deproclaimed the pandemic, since nothing has been seen of the disaster predicted for the Southern hemisphere’ past winter – today being the official first day of Spring- , nor for North America in this  October fall month.

Just count  the untold $billions in profits for the USA via the companies who control the FDA – and for governments  around  the world who conspire with the disinformation  and largesse promoted by the  Disease-Industry controlled FDA and EU and  WHO.

It should be noted that Tamiflu is distributed by the Swiss-USA-based  giant Hoffman La Roche; Relenza marketed by UK-USA  giant GSK; and swine flu vaccines are now being mass produced by archaic methods (in hens’ eggs, animal cell cultures)  by GSK , Baxter international (USA) and Novartis (Switzerland-USA)  – containing amongst others the feared neurotoxins mercury-thiomersal, squalene (and- who-knows-even aluminium?)  to be injected, not taken orally when they are likely harmlessly excreted.  Co-incidentally, it was a USA Baxter heparin batch that was found to be contaminated, and in early 2009 a Baxter seasonal flu vaccine  vaccine batch destined for the Czech Republic that was found there to have contamination by a deadly H5N1 strain. Not to mention the US Merck’s intended universal flu vaccine. ; and Merck’s and GSK’s notoriously controversial anti-cervix cancer vaccines which have   been associated with much death and illness in young girls after it too was made mandatory in many regions, despite lack of evidence of benefit in longterm RCTs.

Furthermore, wiki reports thatIn January 2009 the  USA awarded Swiss-based Novartis a $486 million contract for construction of the first US plant to produce cell-based influenza vaccine – to be located in North Carolina, aiming to produce  150,000,000 doses of pandemic vaccine within six months of declaring a flu pandemic”.

How’s that for strategic prophetic planning, 2 months ahead of the California-Mexico swine flu outbreak? .Some call it disease-mongering.

What an ‘unexpected’  windfall  the coincidence  of the outbreak of the American-Mexican swine flu epidemic 6 months ago has been for USA –  UK – European-based Disease Industry mega-corporations – all of which have at least one foot in USA-  and thus governments.

Is the outbreak and ensuing $billiondollar industry a fortuitous windfall? As the saying goes, success is not built on luck but on wise  planning.

So the jury will inevitably favour conspiracy theory until the Authorities involved produce the scientific evidence to justify the swine flu “pandemic” proclamation and the multi $billion antiviral drug and mandatory vaccine campaign against the still-awaited swine flu holocaust.

Why does it take the mind  back  to the 2003 USA Bush gang’s  decision  (that made their allied corporations  $billions, and made USA  the world’s biggest aggressor and debtor) to occupy  and destroy Iraq based on USA- ‘Intelligence”-fabricated  evidence that Iraq was a nuclear threat? and the world’s worst Great Depression ever  the past year as a result of Bush- Blair regimes’ conspiracy with the criminal  banking and stockbroking industry?

GROWING TAMIFLU-RESISTANT SWINE FLU: WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE THAT TAMIFLU DOES MORE GOOD THAN HARM? – ROCHE CANNOT PRODUCE ANY. AND WHAT ABOUT THE LETHAL H5NI FLU?

ANTIVIRALS FOR SWINE FLU?                      neil.burman@gmail.com cape town.

Twenty eight patients with swine flu virus resistant to the only apparently available oral antiviral , Tamiflu, were reported world wide by the WHO by 25 September.  Given that no countries can afford to screen for  flu in  even 1% of the thousands in every town  who have some symptoms of flu every day, the specific H1H1 swine flu  causes serious complications in apparently below 1 in 1000 cases, with mortality probably below 1 in 10 000 of those who contract it, considering that the virus has spread faster than an Australian or Californian  bushfire.

But given the pandemic nature of the outbreak, and the stockpiling of multimillion Tamiflu tablets, at a cost in South Africa of some US$30 per course, it is increasingly strange that no report has yet appeared of a randomized controlled trial of Tamiflu to show that, for it’s cost and especially adverse effects in children, it gives any significant protection for the rare life-threatening case. Its use is therefore purely speculative.

All it needs is to randomize double blind say 100 000 young people who complain of early flu to Tamiflu or identical placebo capsules- which would cost Roche pennies. We could have had the answer about Tamiflu’s benefits versus risks within weeks given the rate of spread. At a rate of swine flu infection of say 1: 1000, it should be proven within weeks whether swine flu has a proven infection rate of even 1:100, and of those who do get serious, of even 1:1000 serious complications- and thus whether Tamiflu is relevant at all in any type of flu.

Why was this Tamiflu trial not initiated by the CDC or WHO already in eg June, when the extent of the outbreak became obvious? It  seems that Roche and the CDC know there is no evidence to depend on Tamiflu- but the USA makes $billions in its sales.

Roche undertook 4 days ago at a Tamiflu marketing promotion to let me have the evidence… still waiting.  in fact, by 23 Oct,  a week after their rep made the commitment, I cant get an answer from Roche on Tamiflu either by phone or by email. Please watch this site for further announcements.

World Press in Iran claims that Tamiflu lowers mortality of   seasonal flu by 37% . But the current Medscape report on this study shows that this figure was anecdotal- not from a randomized controlled  trial but from comparison of patients treated by different teams without standardized prospective criteria and protocols  in two different Hong Kong  hospitals.

Yet the USA CDC – without such hard evidence- blandly continues to advocate Tamiflu use in suspected serious cases despite it’s common complication especially in small children. . And when by all accounts Tamiflu has to be taken within the first day or two of infection, when it is rarely yet apparent how serious the case will be. Their hilariously  contradictory advice means that Tamiflu must  be taken within 48 hours of onset in EVERY flu-like illness

Most serious of all, because of the lack of such a simple RCT, there is no evidence that Tamiflu may not do more harm than good in those at high risk – the young, the old and those with serious underlying systemic disease.

And even more serious, mortality of 61% occurred in the 431 known cases of  encephalitic H5N1  avian flu recently reported. The antiviral efficacy but poor clinical response (2/4 patients died) to Tamiflu in patients with H5N1 encephalitis does not augur well for Tamiflu benefit in serious swine flu H1N1 infection. And the continuous mutations of H5N1 has rendered vaccines pretty useless- again ill omen for swine flu. David Nabarro has been criticised for comparing the risk of avian flu to that of the genocidal AIDS in Africa. But at least AIDs has been converted with adequate nutrition and multiple antiretrovirals  from a disease lethal in about 7years to a chronic degenerative disease (like eg Diabetes) with a potential working lifespan of decades.

And at least the 3year Thai trial of new AIDs vaccines shows 26-31% reduction in new AIDs cases, without serious adverse effects- altho “Vaccination did not affect the degree of viremia or the CD4+ T-cell count in subjects in whom HIV-1 infection was subsequently diagnosed“. Thus, so far it is doing a lot more  than tamiflu or the swine flu,  or HPV cervix cancers vaccine (already with dozens of deaths reported soon after vaccination in apparently well young girls) are doing.

By all accounts, it would be far more effective against all infection , and perfectly safe, to take vitamin D3 – 2000iu/kg/day- for a few days (cost perhaps a few $)  with any suspected infection,  and then longterm 1000iu/kg weekly, together with daily a vigorous few grams supplement of vitamin C powder   (short of diarrhoea) and as snuff  twice daily;  and  daily 10 000iu betacarotene with zinc 20mg, some multivite – multimineral, some eg sutherlandia (cancerbush) and or colloidal silver, and a tsp of codliver oil or a gram of 80% fish oil concentrate,  as immune boost against all infections let alone most acute and chronic diseases.

The only caution with vitamin D is obviously to take reasonable fluids, and be wary in cases with kidney stones;  silent hypercalcemia in which vigorous dose vitamin D might cause problems is fortunately so rare as to make routine testing of vitamin D and calcium levels unnecessary, except obviously in the rare at-risk case with eg cancer or stones.

But such effective holistic prevention of all diseases of premature aging and death is anathema to the Disease industry and thus governments and Regulators, for whom Only Disease Pays.

We can only hope that evidence can immediately be produced to refute such skepticism, since use of Tamiflu (not to mention the now-available but longterm safety- and efficacy-unknown swine flu vaccine) instead of multisystem-protection supplements may  potentially result in much suffering and deaths, as happened with the shotgun Ronald Reagan-era  flu vaccine  that was never needed, but caused many deaths and paralysis from Guillaine-Barre syndrome. .

The harsh reality is that it is AIDS, H5N1 avian flu and multiresistant tuberculosis that is the pandemic threat- not swine flu with it’s rare bad risk.

So promoting massively expensive  unproven Tamiflu and universal  (swine flu  or HPV cervix cancer) vaccination as the USA is doing is immoral.  What is needed  for all  is  secure law and order, education, jobs, housing, clean power  water and  air,  and food, and fish oil and the appropriate supplements listed.

24  Oct :  see  update of 21 October for more revelations.

URGENT UPDATE: AMERICAN/MEXICAN SWINE FLU IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

URGENT WARNING:

The first 2 pneumonia deaths associated with swine flu have now been reported from South Africa. Until details  of their  illness and  pathology tests and  autopsies and treatment   are revealed, as usual we will never know what other underlying risk factors there were.

What can we do to protect ourselves?

New Vitamin D data fits with what we know about fighting infection  – that in both the malnourished ( Dar-es Salaam) and nourished  eg (Canada) AIDS+TB patients, boosting vit D3 , let alone vitamin C,  b-carotene,  zinc,  aloe,  sutherlandia, and  deficient iron, drastically reduced mortality.  eg Grant 2009- Vitamin D also reduces the production of proinflammatory cytokines ie the cytokine storm for which antioxidants – free radical scavengers– are recommended .

Since we queried 3 months ago why only Mexicans were dying then, many deaths linked to the new H1N1 American-Mexican swine flu  have occurred outside Mexico (although at a far lower rate than in central- the poor- Americas), mostly in the frail but undoubtedly also in the healthy wellnourished very young- in whom the problem seems to include cytokinin storm overwhelming the lungs with  hyperimmune response to a new virus.

Us oldies have both less immune response, and also tolerance from previous exposure. Perhaps (just as us oldies may have inherited some resistance- tolerance from our parents/ grandparents who survived the 1918 & mid-19th Century Russian H1N1 epidemics), our adult children have also inherited tolerance thrrough  us.
Whereas  those who are malnourished AND have AIDs/TB  may have too weak immune systems to respond fatally to this ‘new’ virus.
Dr Barry Shoub head of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases NICD at his UCT  lecture July 2009  agrees – its a relief to hear confirmed that while this virus has spread like wildfire here, there is no increased mortality being reported from the townships where AIDs and  multiple resistant  MRTB are the most rampant and fatal in the world. .   On the other hand, unfortunately cortisone treatment has also not been reported to help those with the apparent hyperimmune response to this new flu.

We mustn’t depend on, wait for rescue with  Tamiflu, Relenza ( resistance spreads rapidly, and adverse effects are serious),  or on a hasty  untested American Swine Flu vaccine – especially if it is laced with squalene let alone mercury or aluminium?.

We urgently need to boost both the frail, and the very young, with what we have: oral antioxidants: vitamin D between 5000-10000 iu/day or 50 000 iu/week; b-carotene about 10 000 iu/day;  zinc 30-60mg/day;    vitamin C+bioflavinoid 50/50(Enhanced Vitamin C) 1/2gm  to 5gm (a heaped teaspoon)  twice a day- increasing gradually over a week to tolerance ie  the dose that doesnt cause diarrhoea; vits E, lipoic acid;  and extra calcium carb 1/2gm twice a day also to minimize vit C diarrhoea;  Probiotics; Aloe; fish oil (eg cod liver oil) a tsp or 4gm a day); sutherlandia; and colloidal silver ACS nasal spray and orally; with a good nonspecific multinutrient. . .

And since this flu virus seems to kill the lungs if it does serious  harm, we need to boost lung defense specifically  with For-Lungspan- N-acetyl cysteine (an antioxidant) and guaifenesin each  a few hundred mg/day.

These all- natural nutritional supplements are  available over the counter – and the more malnourished the person, the less will already make a big difference to nutrition and resistance.

And obviously in the malnourished, or  frail, it is crucial to check hemoglobin and iron levels and reverse iron deficiency if present- deficiency can be assumed  in poor girls/women who are still menstruating, in those with chronic heartburn  let alone previous bowel bleeding or absorption problems, the pregnant, and in poor township kids who are likely riddled with parasites – if their hemoglobin is below ~12g, add iron for sure. .

And obviously general nutrition is crucial: with mass unemployment, and rampant endemic price fixing abuse of basic foodstuffs which business and politicians choose to ignore if not conspire in,  the poor may not be able to afford nourishing balanced diet. But many  do spend money on buying essential supplements – for which they need guidance as above..

And for solace the poor spend more on smoking and alcoholism –  the greatest killers of both users and those they encounter: it is incomprehensible that businesses  employ staff who destroy themselves and others by smoking or  alcohol  abuse, since these are choices. This despite the fact that in most countries suicide – especially assisted suicide- is illegal.

So is the use of sugar, which is one of the deadliest addictions (for promoting  decay, infection, glycation) – especially when it is so easily substituted by a safe alternative sweetener  like stevia or  saccharine-cyclamate, and when the food chain is now stuffed with high-calorie cornstarch.

All commercial sweetened  “cooldrinks” should be banned if they contain the adverse additive  problems of  caffeine  sugar   aspartamate  benzene and/or phosphoric acid.  Like its fermentation product  alcohol C2H5OH,  sugar C6H12O6  is a deadly intoxicant and corrosive oxidant, and should like alcohol be red-labeled  in cooldrinks for sale  solely to consenting adults, since these destabilize the brain (le alone immunity) just like alcohol does, by sending the blood sugar and then insulin soaring and plummeting wildly.  Compare the chemical effects of  about 12-24gm alcohol – 72-150kcalories (an average sugary  a”glass” or two  of beer  or  wine, a generous “tot” of spirits)  with  that of one or two Red Bulls or even Cokes or Fantas.

And undiluted or adulterated commercial “fruit juice” is bad by the glass since it is high in sugar (fructose), it should be used if at all in small volumes diluted in water- and one has to drink perhaps 6 litres a day (or 6kg of fruit)  to obtain 3 gm vitamin C .

If tap water (the best) is not enough, there are  rooibos or  other  teas, chicory, modest coffee, skim milk, and soda water to satisfy all desires- and  for those with a sweet tooth, a relatively safe concentrate to dilute well like Eleven to One in a wide range of fruit flavours. Fresh fruit in moderation, and coloured veggies are always the best, for their roughage, polyphenols, vitamins, antioxidants etc- but they do not provide enough of these for our polluted stressed depressing  and contagious world, especially for the longerlived. .

And with rampant overweight-obesity-(pre)diabetes, fatfree cooking must be enforced, to minimize intake of both carcinogens and worse, glycates , AGES— sugar fused with fat or protein.

UPDATED FIGHT FLU (influenza A or B) and all (eg Swine) infection PRECAUTIONS/ TREATMENT:

May 2009:   PRECAUTIONS against both ‘flu and colds: (see the updated swine flu alert):

CDC WARNING: “Special Considerations for Children: Aspirin or aspirin-containing products  should not be administered to any confirmed or suspected  influenza  case  aged 18 years old and younger due to the risk of Reye syndrome. For relief of fever, other anti-fever  medications are recommended “. These may be acetaminophen paracetamol or  herbal anti-inflammatory drugs.

UK: Aside from their obligations under health  safety legislation, employers can help to minimise  spread of the virus and support good infection control practice by positively encouraging any employee who reports feeling unwell with influenza-like symptoms to stay at home until their symptoms resolve, by sending people home who develop influenza-like illness at work (avoiding public transport and wearing a face mask if possible) and by ensuring that stocks of surgical facemasks are available in the workplace for symptomatic staff to wear until they get home.DoH Pandemic Flu Plan, November 2007″

Seasonal Influenza A  is a major risk for older people everywhere, it kills half a million people a year.

The American hybrid H1N1 swine flu is so far only a real risk (>1% mortality) in Mexico, or in people already critically ill with other problems eg malnutrition,  obesity diabetes, emphysema, heart/ kidney  failure, cancer,  etc (who are at high risk of any passing bugs).

During outbreaks of infection, or if you feel a cold/ flu coming on:

–DON’T overstress or overexert yourself.

–STAY AWAY from:   Public transport and busy clinics and offices; or returning overseas travelers –  if you must meet them or  share the car with them, they and you must wear a mask, have  no contact.

–REST at home if you feel feverish/a cold coming on, perhaps take a cold shower twice a day.

– if you have flu, or during outbreaks, wear a SURGICAL MASK in public transport, open clinics- for protection against airborne TB, flu and cold viruses. Don’t share masks with anyone. Discard mask if at all soiled. wash hands often.

BOOST YOUR IMMUNITY: – also against TB, HIV/AIDs and all common chronic diseases

1. DIET/LIFESTYLE: Eat, drink and exercise prudently and regularly, and get plenty of fluids (incl tea), rest and sleep, if needed with melatonin at night for poor sleep; avoid smoking,  sugars and undiluted fruit-juice and sweetened commercial drinks. Tighten diabetic/ overweight  control eg add metformin/galega to tolerance (ie short of nausea/ diarrhoea);      eliminate suspect allergens eg milk- and wheat(gluten) -products.

2. STEAM twice a day if you feel a cold coming on.

3. SNIFF a pinch of ENHANCED VITAMIN C* powder 3 x day (50/50 vitamin C + bioflavinoid – a fruit polyphenol).

4. Take ENHANCED VIT C* rapid stepwise dose increase from 1gm 1/4  tsp  a day  up to 2 tsp (~8gm)  2-6  x/day-less if diarrhoea. some people tolerate only <300mg/d, but most (especially if ill) tolerate up to >100gms a day spread over the 24hours; as infection settles, so does the tolerance drop back toward perhaps <4gms a day.

+ FOR-INFECTION BLEND*.

+ FOR-LUNGS BLEND* if chesty/sinus or smoker, or prone to bronchitis/cough/asthma.

+ SUTHERLANDIA and/or Aloe

+ a good MULTINUTRIENT  for balance incl plenty of garlic; and vitamin D3 and betacarotene each up to 10 000iu and zinc up to 30mg/day. . . plus fish oil plus CoQ10.

5. For prevention consider  a homeopathic ‘Flu VACCINE unless allergic -altho’  it is a nonspecific immune booster. There is as yet no specific H1N1 vaccine. BUT the big question is whether to risk the current mercury/ aluminium-based commercial vaccines ,  or the safe but highly dilute  homeopathic version.  Injections in particular may have powerful placebo effect.

6. Consider nonspecific GAMMAGLOBULIN injection- but it is now very costly because of extra screening for eg hepatitis, HIV – and also not totally without risks. Hyperimmune serum from someone who has recovered from  the current  ie American swine flu  is better, as we know from experience   with eg  rabies, tetanus, Congo fevers- but there are still far too few cases of American flu.

7. If you are on drugs likely to aggravate lung problems or infections – consider with your healthcare provider to reduce or stop  them urgently eg swop problem antihypertensive drugs (betablockers and angiotensin- blockers-ACEI, ARBs) to safer old drugs. Reduce or stop anti-inflammatories NSAIDS or  bisphosphonates eg Fosamax – take the >dozen natural supplements that are always better and far safer against fractures and frailty.  Avoid unnecessary antibiotics as these create, dont help, risks. Cortisone dose can sometimes be modified to reduce risk.

8. What about the ANTIVIRALS  Tamiflu and Relenza? read the problems about them  and decide for yourself whether it is worth the risks and considerable cost… Bloomberg.com today  says “The human form of H1N1 that’s currently circulating is resistant to Roche’s Tamiflu (not GSK’s Relenza)” Last week’s  USA report says “widespread oseltamivir Tamiflu resistance was detected among circulating influenza A (H1N1) viruses in USA; but  all influenza viruses tested this season (ie 2008)  have been susceptible to zanamivir Relenza ” .  Last year “there was 100% H1Ni resistance to Tamiflu in RSA”;  and  “strains resistant to Relenza have been reported”.

Relenza is a safe and effective treatment for influenza, BUT  needs to be given early after the first symptoms appear –  Six to 12 hours is ideal. Usually the time taken to get a prescription renders it  ineffective. The poor oral bioavailability of Relenza zanamivir  limits dosing to inhalation”.

“An FDA  Public Health Advisory warns  of respiratory problems following inhalation of Relenza by patients with underlying asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. “

Such lung patients in particular need their cortisone pump, and theophylin, and NAcetyl-or-carbo-cysteine +/or guaifenesin, and extra magnesium, vit C, nicotinamide vit B3,  pantothenate vit B5, vit D3 ideally 6000 to 10 000iu/day, and   probiotic.

So the best seems to be to withhold commercial antivirals   until flu strikes, then hit it immediately hard with eg Relenza plus  amantidine/rimantidine.

For prevention combine all the natural supplements and precautions listed above – ESPECIALLY in areas like Southern Africa where major endemic poverty – malnutrition -obesity diabetes,  drug abuse (incl alcohol and cigarette/ cannabis smoking etc), TB, AIDS and cholera abound.

No American swine flu cases have yet been reported in Africa or mainland Asia or India; but with pandemic TB, AIDS, cholera, malaria etc, and winter biting hard this week to herald the usual bad flu season in the Southern hemisphere, it will be harder to distinguish acute flu from other potential infections.

Take this list and go ask you local health care provider  if you have been exposed to and suspect bad flu, as well as your  specialist if you are seeing one – who should all  know more about simple effective local remedies-  but above all, take the simple preventative nonprescription  steps above. .. .

ndb

UPDATE AMERICAN HYBRID SWINE ‘FLU (H1N1) SPREAD:

In future see updates at  https://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/a-false-flu-alarm-what-is-killing-mexicans-in-the-current-flu-outbreak/

Update 26 May 06h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 52 countries is as follows: 12 570cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6764  Mexico4541; Canada921;  Panama 76;  Chile 82; Costa Rica 28; Peru 27;  Colombia 13; Ecuador 24,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 19; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 98.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 136; Portugal 1; UK137; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 19,  Germany 17,  Italy 19   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 8; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 2; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18; UAE 1;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan350, China 20; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 23; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 31; Philippines 1;

All reported  98 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 14 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  11, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 2- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients

Update 25 May 06h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 50 countries is as follows: 12 570cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama 76;  Chile 74; Costa Rica 28; Peru 25;  Colombia 12; Ecuador 12,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 5; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 93.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 133; Portugal 1; UK133; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 19   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 8; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 2; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18; UAE 1;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan345, China 16; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 22; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 18; Philippines 1;

All reported  93 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 12 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  10, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients

Update 24 May 19h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 49 countries is as follows: 12 545cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama 76;  Chile 55; Costa Rica 28; Peru 21;  Colombia 12; Ecuador 10,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 92.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 126; Portugal 1; UK133; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 14;   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 7; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 1; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan342, China 16; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 21; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 17; Philippines 1;

All reported  92 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients.

Update 23 May 05h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections -in 47  countries  is as follows: 12 457 cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama73;  Chile 44; Colombia 12; Ecuador 8, Peru 17; Costa Rica 26;  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala*4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;

EUROPE  20 countries: Spain 126; Portugal 1; UK120; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 14;   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 7; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 1;

East/Asia: 10 countries: Japan321, China 11; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 5; Thailand 2;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand 9, Australia 14; Philippines 1;

All reported  92 associated deaths have been on the North American continent* –  apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 22 May 19h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 46 countries – 11 163 cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA*6552  Mexico*4008; Canada*719;  Panama*73;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 8, Peru 16; Costa Rica* 26;  Brazil* 9, El Salvador* 7;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 4,   Chile 29*; Argentine* 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;

EUROPE  20 countries: Spain** 118; Portugal 1**; UK**117; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  17,  Italy** 14;   Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7; Norway** 4;  Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,   Russia 1;

East/Asia: 10 countries: Japan***317, China 11; Taiwan 5;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, Australia 13***; Philippines 1;

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 90, apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 79 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 21 May 05.30 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 44 countries – 11  167 cases:

The AMERICAS: 16 countries: USA*5764  Mexico*3892; Canada*719;  Panama*69;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 8, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 20;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 6;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 4,   Chile 25*; Argentine* 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1;

EUROPE  19 countries: Spain** 111; Portugal 1**; UK**112; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 4;  Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 292, China 8; Taiwan 3;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 10***; Philipines 1;

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 87, apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 76 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients. More demographic details are awaited, but the CDC today notes that obesity is obviously a major risk factor- as usual.

Update 20 May 07h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 42 countries – 10 390 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*5469  Mexico*3734; Canada*516;  Panama*59;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 1, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 11*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 107; Portugal 1**; UK**107; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 3; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 262, China 7; Taiwan 1;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 5***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 82, apparently still only 9deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  7, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 75 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients. More demographic details are awaited, but the CDC today notes that obesity is obviously a major risk factor- as usual.

Update 19 May 17h30 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 41 countries – 10 232 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*5469  Mexico*3648; Canada*516;  Panama*59;  Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 10*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**102; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 191, China 7;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 80, apparently still only 7 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  5, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 73 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 18 May 15h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 40 countries 8862 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*4714;  Mexico*3103; Canada*516;  Panama*55;  Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 1; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 2*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**101; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 135, China 6;  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1;      New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 76 , apparently still only 7 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  5, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 69 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 17 May 19h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 40 countries 8817 cases:

The AMERICAS: 13 countries: USA* 4714;  Mexico*3102; Canada* 516;  Panama* 54; Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 1; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**101; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia:  8Japan*** 93, China 7;  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1;    New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 75 , apparently still only 6 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  4, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 69 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 16 May 07h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 8485cases USA* 4714;  Mexico* 2895; Canada* 518; Spain** 103;  UK** 85; Panama* 43; France** 14, Germany**  14, New Zealand*** 9, Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,   Colombia 11*;  Japan*** 4, Belgium 4**,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  Cuba 3, S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Poland 2**, Malaysia 2, and one  each Ecuador, Peru; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,  Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 73 , apparently still only 6 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  4, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 67 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 15 May 06h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 7737cases USA* 4298;  Mexico* 2656; Canada* 449; Spain** 100;  UK** 78; Panama* 39; France** 14, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Colombia 10*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Belgium 2**, and one  each Cuba*; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 70 , apparently still only 5 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  3, Costa Ricna 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 65 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 14 May 21h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 7673cases USA* 4298;  Mexico* 2656; Canada* 389; Spain** 100;  UK** 78; Panama* 39; France** 14, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Colombia 7*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Belgium 2**, and one  each Cuba*; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 69 , apparently still only 4 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie in USA, Costa Rica  and Canada- and all in previously very ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 65 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well young patients.

Update 13 May 20h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 33 countries – 6483cases, plus ??  suspected  cases;  USA* 3370Mexico* 2446; Canada* 358; Spain** 100;  UK** 71; Panama* 29; France** 13, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 9, Colombia 7*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**; Argentine  2*;  and one  each Ireland**,  Austria**, Belgium**, Denmark**, Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**; Australia***;  Cuba*.

Update 12 May 20h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 33 countries – 6042cases, plus ??  suspected  cases;  USA* 3139Mexico* 2282; Canada* 330; Spain** 98;  UK**  68; Panama* 18; France** 13, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7,  Japan*** 4,   Netherlands** 3,  El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Colombia 6*; S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Sweden 2**; China 2***; and one  each Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Finland 2**; Poland**, Portugal**; Argentine  2*; Australia***;  Cuba*.  All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 63 , apparently still only 4 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie in USA, Costa Rica  and Canada.

update 11 May 14h00 GMT: the rate of new cases seems to be dropping everywhere, altho laboratories are catching up with the backlog to reveal the extent of those outbreaks in the minority of  regions which could afford or bothered with  testing. Only 4% of confirmed cases have been reported outside the Americas-  and of the 221 cases elsewhere , 202  have been in the 13 European coastal ie Atlantic-Baltic-Mediterranean  countries.

The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 30 countries (up from 19 a week ago) – 5351 cases, plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA* 2733 plus another 433 suspected;  Mexico* 2062; Canada* 284; Spain** 95; UK**  65; France** 13, Germany**  11,  Italy** 9; Costa Rica* 8; Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7,  Japan*** 4, S Korea*** 3; Netherlands** 4, Guatamala* 3;  El Salvador* 4;   Panama* 15; Colombia 3*; Norway** 2; Sweden 2**; and one  each Ireland**  Austria ** Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Poland**, Portugal**; Argentine *   Australia***; China ***  and  Hong Kong***.  All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent.

ie proven swine flu cases:  5021 in the Americas*; 204 in Europe-Israel**; and 17  in the West Pacific arc***. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

61  deaths (57 in Mexicans) have now been reported in patients with confirmed swine flu, but only 28 have so far been  clearly and solely attributed to the virus (not other causes) –  all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 33 deaths  with swine flu virus  but not proven attributable eg   in  very high risk patients  – all Mexicans, plus 2  Americans, a Canadian and a Costa Rican) .   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all proven cases there is thus ~2.8%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border

update 10 May 15h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 30 countries (up from 19 a week ago) – 4571 cases, plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA* 2432 plus another 433 suspected;  Mexico* 1626 (plus  >533 suspected cases); Canada* 280; Spain** 95; UK**  48; France** 12, Germany**  11,  Italy** 9; Costa Rica* 8; Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Brazil* 6, Japan*** 4, S Korea*** 3; Netherlands** 3, Guatamala* 3;  El Salvador* 2;   Panama* 2;  Norway** 2; and one  each Ireland**  Austria ** Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Poland**, Portugal**, Sweden**; Argentine * Colombia*;  Australia*** and  Hong Kong***. All reported deaths so far have been on the North American continent.

ie proven swine flu cases:  4364 in the Americas*; 194 in Europe-Israel**; and 16  in the West Pacific arc***. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

Although 53 deaths have now been reported in patients with confirmed swine flu, only 28 have been attributed to the virus (not other causes) –  all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 25 deaths  with swine flu virus  but not proven attributable eg   in  very high risk patients   in 21 Mexicans, in  2  Americans, a Canadian and a Costa Rican .   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases there is thus ~1.2%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border.

update 9 May 15h00 GMT tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 29 countries- 4040 cases , plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA 2224 plus another 412 suspected;  Mexico 1364 (plus  >533 suspected cases); Canada 242; Spain 93; UK  39; France 12, Germany  11,  Italy 8; Israel 7,  New Zealand 7, Brazil 6, Netherlands  3, Japan 3, S Korea 3;  El Salvador 2;   one  each Ireland  Austria  Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden; Argentine  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Guatamala;  Panama; Australia and  Hong Kong.

ie proven swine flu cases:  3843 in the Americas; 180 in Europe-Israel; and 15  in the West Pacific. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

Only 28  deaths attributed to   proven Mexican  flu have been confirmed – all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 20 deaths  suspect but not proven attributable eg  one  each in  a very high risk woman each in an American woman (cause of death not disclosed)  and  Canada (died from asthma).   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases there is thus ~1.5%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border.

The above stats do not mean that the outbreak has not occurred everywhere. It may simply be that cases (and deaths) are indistinguishable from other infections in vast areas like Africa, Arabia, Russia, China, and are not being monitored and tested for reporting in >70% of the world’s people & countries. .

update 8 May 19h00 GM tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 26 countries- 3446 cases , plus >3300  suspected  cases; Mexico 1364 (plus  >1700 suspected cases); USA 2224 ;  Canada 242; Spain  93; UK  40; Germany  11, France 12,Israel 7,  New Zealand 7, Italy 8;  Brazil 6,Netherlands  3,  S Korea 3;  El Salvador 2;   one  each  Argentine 1, Colombia, Costa Rica;  Guatamala;   Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden; and  Hong Kong.

ie proven swine flu cases:  3255 in the Americas; 174 in Europe-Israel; and 9 in the West Pacific. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico are simply not happening – and even in Mexico, the fatality rate among those swine flu positive is s0 far only 0.4%

48  deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – 46 in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); ( one in  a very high risk American woman Texan  living on the Mexican  border severely obese, already pneumonic after recent childbirth; and one in a very high risk elderly Canadian woman in Canada;).  The death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases is thus ~1.5%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border. The impression grows that the new hybrid strain is in fact less virulent than the seasonal flu viruses long circulating around the world; and that in Mexico and elsewhere, as in 1918 , deaths are either where this new mild virus has become the final tipping straw, or else death is in fact due not to the incidental swine flu virus but to a co-infecting bug – eg the strep pneumonia (which killed most in the ’18  H1N1 epidemic) or one of the prevalent virulent influenza A  N2- or N3- or N5-H.. viruses.

Update 6 May 20h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows (no longer reporting WHO figures as up to yesterday, but confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 23  countries- 2267 cases , plus >4100 suspected  cases; Mexico 1112 (plus  >2955 suspected cases); USA  831 ;  Canada 165; Spain  81; UK  32; Germany  9, France 7,New Zealand 5, Italy 5; Israel 4, El Salvador 2;  S Korea2;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Guatamala..

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  1726 ie 92.6% ;  W Europe+ Israel 134;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland EurAsia O.

Update 5 May 21h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows:  world- 21 countries-  1478 cases , and 833  suspected probable cases; Mexico 806 (out of >2950 suspected cases); USA  405 ;  Canada 140; Spain  57; UK  28; Germany  9, New Zealand 6, Italy 5; Israel 4, France 4, El Salvador 2;  S Korea2;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal.

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  1355 ie 90% ;  W Europe+ Israel 113;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland EurAsia O.

27 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 5 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yr. The death rate in Mexicans relative to all suspected  cases is thus about 1%.

Update 4 May 17h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows:  world- 21 countries-  1103cases out of >4600  suspected probable cases; Mexico 590 (out of >2500 suspected cases; USA  293 ;  Canada 101; Spain  54; UK  27; Germany  8, New Zealand 6, Israel 4, , El Salvador 2; France 4,  Italy 4;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica; S Korea, Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal.

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  949; W Europe+ Israel 103;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland Asia O.

26 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 5 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yrs.

update 3 May 16h00 GMT:  Mexico, USA, Canada, UK   and Spain have extra cases confirmed, and  3 new confirmed related deaths in Mexico- the last in  midweek- but no new countries have confirmed cases since yesterday.  Now another 11 suspicious  cases have reportedly died in Mexico since yesterday.  But no evidence of confirmation has been disclosed.   SO THERE IS NO PANDEMIC, and no spreading epidemic- only North America is heavily involved.  So the only slight possibility of this mild flu epidemic outside the Americas is in Western Europe.

People die everyday – the majority suddenly- of both common and bizarre  causes.  It is hair-raising that after a month, there are still no reports anywhere to indicate whether deaths in cases with the hybrid American flu virus had any clear cause of death attributable to the virus eg virus meningitis, virus pneumonitis, virus carditis, virus hepatitis,  etc. So there is no proof yet that this H1N1 virus has actually killed anyone (as  opposed to them dying of malnutrition, exposure, bacterial or other viral  infection, cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc, although also carrying the new hybrid H1N1 virus). Is the analogy AIDS? where the cause of death is often secondary infections.

tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows: world- 19 countries-  909 cases out of >4120  suspected probable cases; Mexico 506 (out of >2500 suspected cases; USA  233 (and another 514 probable?) ; Canada 85; Spain  44; UK  18 (and another 9 probable?), Germany  8, New Zealand 4, Israel 4, Costa Rica 2, France 2 (and another 7 probable?),  Italy 2;   one  each  Colombia, S Korea, Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland.

ie confirmed cases: N America  826; W Europe+ Israel 83;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland Asia O.

20 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 4 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yrs. No autopsy results yet confirm whether overwhelming Mexican flu has actually caused a single death. . . The associated death rate in Mexico is   still only 4% of confirmed cases – which means that by now – if it is the American swine virus causing death- around  18 deaths could have been expected in non-Mexicans. But so far there have been no very ill cases or suspicious deaths  except in Mexicans . . is this just a false alarm, or a profiteering conspiracy?

update 2 May 17h00 GMT:   THERE IS NO GLOBAL EPIDEMIC NOR THREATENED PANDEMIC. Despite a gross  of  recent flu cases being screened in Australia, not one has so far been positive for the hybrid virus there. And very few cases of person-to-person transmission have been reported outside Mexico. Outside Mexico, the cases have been milder than the seasonal flu that kills tens of thousands of elderly folk every year.

SEE THE UPDATED PRECAUTIONS/TREATMENT.

tally for confirmed American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections are as follows:  world- 17 countries-  714 cases (up from 265 in  3 days- out of >4700  suspected probable cases); Mexico 443; USA in 3days doubled from 64 to 162; UK  15, Canada-13 to 55, Spain 4 now 15; Germany  6, New Zealand-4, Israel-3, Costa Rica-2, France 2,  one  each Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   S Korea  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland.       Africa O.

(“Confirmed” is where the specific virus has been isolated.)

25 other countries have suspect cases.

17 Deaths associated with  swine flu have been reported only   in Mexicans – but no autopsy results yet reported to confirm whether swine flu has actually caused a single death. . .

This recalls the experience in the 1918 H1N1 Spanish flu  epidemic that deaths were due to superinfection with strep pneumonia- which is easily treated with antibiotics, although antibiotic resistance may now be high in countries  where antibiotics are freely available and overused.

There have been no more deaths or serious cases related to this American hybrid flu virus reported- but more tests are awaited to see if the deaths in Mexicans could be related to eg a different H1N1 virus, or to strep pneumonia that speculatively accounted for most of the  1918 flu epidemic deaths.

update 1st May GMT 17hoo: the identifying name of this virus is a problem: the first case  was in USA, not Mexico. But the brunt, and all deaths, have been in Mexicans. The virus is a mix of human, bird and swine genetic material- but this hybrid  hasn’t been found in swine yet. There have been lots of type A H1N1 viruses – and worse- around the past century.

so the handle of American  hybrid  flu is the most appropriate.

The reference labs are swamped with backlog of  samples from suspect cases, so the number of confirmed cases and countries will rise- but the number of new suspects seems to be leveling off- with no new serious cases reported from Mexico, and still none serious  anywhere else in the world. There is no sign of a pandemic.

But the news bulletins say nothing about the 2500 cholera deaths in 40 000 cases in Zimbabwe..

Apart from probable cases, the  tally for confirmed swine flu infections are as follows:  world- 17 countries-  533 cases(up from 265 in  2days- out of >4400  suspected probable cases); Mexico 312; USA in 48hrs doubled from 64 to 141; Canada-13 to 35, Spain 4 now 13; UK  11, Germany  4, New Zealand-4, Costa Rica-2, Israel-2,  one  each Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   S Korea  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland, China    ..  South Africa O.

13 confirmed  Mexican  deaths reported  related  to the swine virus – but without autopsies, not  proven that they were due to the swine flu. Other nationals no deaths.

Except in Mexicans, nothing more than average flu symptoms have been reported in confirmed  or probable cases.  So the mystery remains: why have only Mexicans died with this virus?   Deaths  cannot be  from the swine virus alone if no-one but  Mexicans have died from it.

And until autopsy details are released from Mexico confirming that the “confirmed cases” died from overwhelming swine flu, there is no confirmation that this swine flu outbreak is even virulent.

But already the outbreak has become a multibillion dollar windfall for USA between antiviral, vaccine and screening kits.. and a costly disaster for airlines due to the media hype. So far there is no indication to start mass-producing vaccine that will only be available months hence, when the new virus is likely to have greatly changed it’s genetics by then.

Since the outbreak did not start in Mexico but in USA, and is a hybrid avian+ swine+human virus, the least confusing is to stick with the name swine flu- there are worse earlier H1N1 viruses around the world.

update 30 April 17h00 GMT: at midday GMT there  were apparently 108 confirmed swine flu cases reported in the USA- up from 64 +- 36hrs before.

update 30 April 07h00 GMT “The UN’s World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the alert over swine influenza to level five – one short of a pandemic. A phase five alert means human-to-human transmission in at least two countries.”  Only 8 of of the   168 confirmed cases of swine flu have died in Mexico.

Independent on line an hour ago says two  suspect cases have been reported  locally, in Gauteng and West Cape. But so far there has not been a single case of serious illness in  let alone danger for a  non-Mexican in or coming out of Mexico, nor in  anyone who has been in contact with travelers from Mexico. So there is no justification  for the media hysteria, nor for the risky costly American antiviral drugs. All suspect cases so far (other than in Mexicans)  have been average mild flu – and very few cases have been confirmed with the virus even  in Mexico. Many cases of our regular flu this season have been worse than confirmed swine flu cases in non-Mexicans .

So there is nowhere near a pandemic on the horizon- just a lucrative scare for media, for Disease Agencies like the CDC and WHO, American Authorities and the Disease Industry- laboratories and (American) Drug and vaccine and H1N1 screening kit  companies, and pharmacists!.

update 29 April 21.30 GMT: 10 US states have now reported 121  suspect swine virus cases including 1 death in Texas, a visiting toddler from Mexico. Total 2917 suspect cases worldwide .  120 deaths  in Mexicans (few have yet been confirmed as due to swine H1N1)  with 168 cases confirmed swine H1N1 cases out of >2700 suspected cases. . The WHO tally for confirmed infections are as follows: US-64, Canada-13, Britain-5, Spain-4, Germany-3, New Zealand-3, Costa Rica-2, Israel-2, and Austria-1.. none yet in RSA or Australia or Asia or Africa.

update 29  April 07h34 GMT so far good  news-  just on 2000 cases reported from Mexico- but no further deaths there, and no serious cases anywhere else in the world. They are looking frantically for an alternative reason for the deaths – 152 so far reported ,  but few as yet confirmed swine virus –  in Mexicans.

updated 28 April 2009 15h20 GMT. The USA and then WHO  today declared Swine flu  a level 4 health emergency, a pandemic.  See the up-to-the minute report .. it has spread around the world in 2 months.

But so far – unlike in previous flu epidemics-  there are no reports of serious illness eg pneumonia, encephalitis, carditis,  collapse or deaths outside Mexico, not even on the latest Australian or CDC websites.

Why is this swine H1N1 virus affecting especially those between the ages of ~20 – 50yrs?

50years  from 2009= 1959. So the last related outbreak must have been before that time- to give us oldies immune memory protection: perhaps we acquired some  genetic  immune resistance from our parents who survived the 1918 ( also H1N1 swine virus ) flu pandemic (my father was a warden in that epidemic- which killed one of his 11 siblings; his parents, and my grandmother’s parents, had survived the perilous journey out of Russia in the early 1880s, likely after surviving  the great flu epidemic of 1857-9).

But this doesn’t explain why the current outbreak also spares those under 20years.

But we peak in the mid-20s, that’s when all systems start aging.. . and in first-world communities, most are attending group educational institutes if not living carefree for most of those youth years, possibly enhancing group immunity, and before the real stresses of work and kids and smoking and alcohol  hit us…

However, it is  futile to speculate on the affected agebracket since virtually all cases originate in Mexico, where diet, ecology  and lifestyle must be radically different from the other countries whose citizens have been affected.

Why are deaths occurring only in Mexicans? especially when no trace of swine flu has been detected on the piggeries there?

is it Hispanic genes making them more susceptible?

is it an as-yet unidentified bug that is unmasked by/ coincidental to the mild flu contagion that tourists are carrying out?

is it a local acute or chronic toxin that the Mexicans have been exposed to that makes them more vulnerable to this swine flu?

The fact that in Mexico it is mainly the 25-45yr olds who have been affected points especially to workplace exposure? what is the smoking, drug usage, diet, vocational and gender spread of the victims? The first confirmed case of swine flu occurred in California days before the first reported case in Mexico.

Shades of Jose Samargo’s brilliant 1995 novel Blindness, in which an unidentified contagion in an unnamed country inflicts white blindness on almost everyone – and no-one is ever referred to by name.  Shades of New World and Olde World  peoples 500 years ago who were decimated when previously unknown infections scythed through them, brought in by immune humans or eg rodents. Shades of the carnage of AIDS in subSaharan Africa but no-where else, about which conspiracy theories circulate.

PRECAUTIONS against both ‘flu and colds: see the list.

No swine flu cases have yet been reported from  Africa; but with pandemic TB, AIDS, cholera etc, and winter biting hard this month to herald the usual bad flu season, it will be harder to distinguish acute swine flu from other potential  flu/ common cold infections.

Take this list and go ask you local infectious disease specialist, as well as your health care provider-  but above all, take the simple preventative nonprescription  steps listed .. .

So far the most deaths have been reported in  Mexicans ( apparently <2% of those infected – compared to the global estimated deathrate of  2.5% in 1918)  – and only 11  (so far) in visitors with flu returning home  from Mexico ie 0.3%. So this may turn out to be another profitable false alarm for USA Big Pharma to mass-sell antivirals and imminent specific vaccines- as apparently happened after the SARS scare a few years ago, which fortunately  never became the predicted  fatal global  pandemic..

help-line ph +0027836299160.

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ndb