ANTIVIRALS FOR SWINE FLU? firstname.lastname@example.org cape town.
Twenty eight patients with swine flu virus resistant to the only apparently available oral antiviral , Tamiflu, were reported world wide by the WHO by 25 September. Given that no countries can afford to screen for flu in even 1% of the thousands in every town who have some symptoms of flu every day, the specific H1H1 swine flu causes serious complications in apparently below 1 in 1000 cases, with mortality probably below 1 in 10 000 of those who contract it, considering that the virus has spread faster than an Australian or Californian bushfire.
But given the pandemic nature of the outbreak, and the stockpiling of multimillion Tamiflu tablets, at a cost in South Africa of some US$30 per course, it is increasingly strange that no report has yet appeared of a randomized controlled trial of Tamiflu to show that, for it’s cost and especially adverse effects in children, it gives any significant protection for the rare life-threatening case. Its use is therefore purely speculative.
All it needs is to randomize double blind say 100 000 young people who complain of early flu to Tamiflu or identical placebo capsules- which would cost Roche pennies. We could have had the answer about Tamiflu’s benefits versus risks within weeks given the rate of spread. At a rate of swine flu infection of say 1: 1000, it should be proven within weeks whether swine flu has a proven infection rate of even 1:100, and of those who do get serious, of even 1:1000 serious complications- and thus whether Tamiflu is relevant at all in any type of flu.
Why was this Tamiflu trial not initiated by the CDC or WHO already in eg June, when the extent of the outbreak became obvious? It seems that Roche and the CDC know there is no evidence to depend on Tamiflu- but the USA makes $billions in its sales.
Roche undertook 4 days ago at a Tamiflu marketing promotion to let me have the evidence… still waiting. in fact, by 23 Oct, a week after their rep made the commitment, I cant get an answer from Roche on Tamiflu either by phone or by email. Please watch this site for further announcements.
World Press in Iran claims that Tamiflu lowers mortality of seasonal flu by 37% . But the current Medscape report on this study shows that this figure was anecdotal- not from a randomized controlled trial but from comparison of patients treated by different teams without standardized prospective criteria and protocols in two different Hong Kong hospitals.
Yet the USA CDC – without such hard evidence- blandly continues to advocate Tamiflu use in suspected serious cases despite it’s common complication especially in small children. . And when by all accounts Tamiflu has to be taken within the first day or two of infection, when it is rarely yet apparent how serious the case will be. Their hilariously contradictory advice means that Tamiflu must be taken within 48 hours of onset in EVERY flu-like illness
Most serious of all, because of the lack of such a simple RCT, there is no evidence that Tamiflu may not do more harm than good in those at high risk – the young, the old and those with serious underlying systemic disease.
And even more serious, mortality of 61% occurred in the 431 known cases of encephalitic H5N1 avian flu recently reported. The antiviral efficacy but poor clinical response (2/4 patients died) to Tamiflu in patients with H5N1 encephalitis does not augur well for Tamiflu benefit in serious swine flu H1N1 infection. And the continuous mutations of H5N1 has rendered vaccines pretty useless- again ill omen for swine flu. David Nabarro has been criticised for comparing the risk of avian flu to that of the genocidal AIDS in Africa. But at least AIDs has been converted with adequate nutrition and multiple antiretrovirals from a disease lethal in about 7years to a chronic degenerative disease (like eg Diabetes) with a potential working lifespan of decades.
And at least the 3year Thai trial of new AIDs vaccines shows 26-31% reduction in new AIDs cases, without serious adverse effects- altho “Vaccination did not affect the degree of viremia or the CD4+ T-cell count in subjects in whom HIV-1 infection was subsequently diagnosed“. Thus, so far it is doing a lot more than tamiflu or the swine flu, or HPV cervix cancers vaccine (already with dozens of deaths reported soon after vaccination in apparently well young girls) are doing.
By all accounts, it would be far more effective against all infection , and perfectly safe, to take vitamin D3 – 2000iu/kg/day- for a few days (cost perhaps a few $) with any suspected infection, and then longterm 1000iu/kg weekly, together with daily a vigorous few grams supplement of vitamin C powder (short of diarrhoea) and as snuff twice daily; and daily 10 000iu betacarotene with zinc 20mg, some multivite – multimineral, some eg sutherlandia (cancerbush) and or colloidal silver, and a tsp of codliver oil or a gram of 80% fish oil concentrate, as immune boost against all infections let alone most acute and chronic diseases.
The only caution with vitamin D is obviously to take reasonable fluids, and be wary in cases with kidney stones; silent hypercalcemia in which vigorous dose vitamin D might cause problems is fortunately so rare as to make routine testing of vitamin D and calcium levels unnecessary, except obviously in the rare at-risk case with eg cancer or stones.
But such effective holistic prevention of all diseases of premature aging and death is anathema to the Disease industry and thus governments and Regulators, for whom Only Disease Pays.
We can only hope that evidence can immediately be produced to refute such skepticism, since use of Tamiflu (not to mention the now-available but longterm safety- and efficacy-unknown swine flu vaccine) instead of multisystem-protection supplements may potentially result in much suffering and deaths, as happened with the shotgun Ronald Reagan-era flu vaccine that was never needed, but caused many deaths and paralysis from Guillaine-Barre syndrome. .
The harsh reality is that it is AIDS, H5N1 avian flu and multiresistant tuberculosis that is the pandemic threat- not swine flu with it’s rare bad risk.
So promoting massively expensive unproven Tamiflu and universal (swine flu or HPV cervix cancer) vaccination as the USA is doing is immoral. What is needed for all is secure law and order, education, jobs, housing, clean power water and air, and food, and fish oil and the appropriate supplements listed.
24 Oct : see update of 21 October for more revelations.