Midst all the hype about driving all older women to annual xray screening mammography for decades- in the end, for no proven net benefit except $billions in profits to the Disease Industry- one of the most pernicious tools used in the mammographysaveslives campaign has been scaremongering.
Winnifred Cutler and a team from the American Colllege of Obstetricians and gynecologists and Switzerland have done women an enormous service in analyzing 18 recent studies covering over 1.8million women from North America and Europe – “a tough search for unbiased data”.
They find that contrary to marketing mythology that women have a 32% lifetime risk of breast cancer (based on ‘massaging’ of American data claiming that breast cancer is the 2nd commonest cause of women deaths), it comes in 5th at 30 deaths per 100 000 women, way behind heart, stroke, lung disease and lung cancer totalling 460 per 100 000.
In fact, even although these modern studies analysed include breast cancers detected by xray screening mammography, the incidence of breast cancer is only about 0.13% per year in the plausible UK Mam Screen of 39000 women; 0.2%pa in the US 283000 women trial; 0.3%pa in the Finnish Registry; and 0.3%pa in the Womens’ Health Initiative.
And in fact even in the bad UK Million Women Study (it enrolled only volunteers), the incidence was only <0.25%pa.
Since average postmenopausal women have a life expectancy to 85yrs average, from average menopause at 52yrs, the above studies give them a lifetime postmenopausal breast cancer expectancy of (33 x 0.3=) 10% ie 1 in 10.
But in fact, if the risk is 10% in their last 35yrs of life. and far lower before that, – and in poor countries average womens’ life expectancy is still barely to average menopause age- their lifetime risk is more like (10% x 33/85=) 4%.
But that 1:10 number in published studies included those detected by xray screening mammography, the majority of cancers which it is now argued may be overdiagnosed, would never have presented clinically during their lifetime.
Thus the true incidence of breast cancer post menopause is probably below 1 in 1000 per year, over a lifetime far below 1 in 10, not 1 in 8 or even 1 in 3 as diseasemongering would have women believe.
CONCLUSION: the real risk of breast cancer (in those without a serious family genetic risk) is far lower than claimed by the Breast Cancer Industry. Such deliberate scaremongering is a major weapon in the war for profit.