UPDATE AMERICAN HYBRID SWINE ‘FLU (H1N1) SPREAD:

In future see updates at  https://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2009/05/03/a-false-flu-alarm-what-is-killing-mexicans-in-the-current-flu-outbreak/

Update 26 May 06h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 52 countries is as follows: 12 570cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6764  Mexico4541; Canada921;  Panama 76;  Chile 82; Costa Rica 28; Peru 27;  Colombia 13; Ecuador 24,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 19; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 98.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 136; Portugal 1; UK137; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 19,  Germany 17,  Italy 19   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 8; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 2; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18; UAE 1;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan350, China 20; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 23; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 31; Philippines 1;

All reported  98 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 14 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  11, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 2- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients

Update 25 May 06h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 50 countries is as follows: 12 570cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama 76;  Chile 74; Costa Rica 28; Peru 25;  Colombia 12; Ecuador 12,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 5; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 93.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 133; Portugal 1; UK133; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 19   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 8; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 2; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18; UAE 1;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan345, China 16; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 22; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 18; Philippines 1;

All reported  93 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 12 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  10, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients

Update 24 May 19h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections in 49 countries is as follows: 12 545cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama 76;  Chile 55; Costa Rica 28; Peru 21;  Colombia 12; Ecuador 10,  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;  DEATHS 92.

EUROPE  21 countries: Spain 126; Portugal 1; UK133; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 14;   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 7; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 1; Iceland 1; Kuwait 18;

East/Asia: 12 countries: Japan342, China 16; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 21; Thailand 2;  Cambodia 1;  Malaysia 2; India 3;  New Zealand 9, Australia 17; Philippines 1;

All reported  92 associated deaths have been on the North American continent –  apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well and adequately housed and fed  patients.

Update 23 May 05h00 GMT: The world tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED H1N1 American (swine/ Mexican) flu  infections -in 47  countries  is as follows: 12 457 cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA6552  Mexico4174; Canada805;  Panama73;  Chile 44; Colombia 12; Ecuador 8, Peru 17; Costa Rica 26;  Brazil 9, El Salvador 6;  Guatamala*4;   Cuba 4,   Argentine 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;

EUROPE  20 countries: Spain 126; Portugal 1; UK120; Ireland 1  ,  Belgium 7, Netherlands 3, France 16,  Germany 17,  Italy 14;   Austria 1,  Switzerland 1,   Greece 1; Turkey 2;  Israel 7; Norway 4;  Finland 2; Sweden 3;  Denmark 1, Poland 2,   Russia 1;

East/Asia: 10 countries: Japan321, China 11; Taiwan 5;  S Korea 5; Thailand 2;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand 9, Australia 14; Philippines 1;

All reported  92 associated deaths have been on the North American continent* –  apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans;  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 81 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 22 May 19h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 46 countries – 11 163 cases:

The AMERICAS: 17 countries: USA*6552  Mexico*4008; Canada*719;  Panama*73;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 8, Peru 16; Costa Rica* 26;  Brazil* 9, El Salvador* 7;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 4,   Chile 29*; Argentine* 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1; Honduras 1;

EUROPE  20 countries: Spain** 118; Portugal 1**; UK**117; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  17,  Italy** 14;   Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7; Norway** 4;  Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,   Russia 1;

East/Asia: 10 countries: Japan***317, China 11; Taiwan 5;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, Australia 13***; Philippines 1;

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 90, apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  previously vulnerable/  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 79 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 21 May 05.30 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 44 countries – 11  167 cases:

The AMERICAS: 16 countries: USA*5764  Mexico*3892; Canada*719;  Panama*69;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 8, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 20;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 6;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 4,   Chile 25*; Argentine* 1 ; Paraguay 1; Nicaragua 1;

EUROPE  19 countries: Spain** 111; Portugal 1**; UK**112; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 4;  Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 292, China 8; Taiwan 3;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 10***; Philipines 1;

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 87, apparently still only 11 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americans  9, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in apparently  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 76 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients. More demographic details are awaited, but the CDC today notes that obesity is obviously a major risk factor- as usual.

Update 20 May 07h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 42 countries – 10 390 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*5469  Mexico*3734; Canada*516;  Panama*59;  Colombia 12*; Ecuador 1, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 11*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 107; Portugal 1**; UK**107; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 16,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 3; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 262, China 7; Taiwan 1;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 3; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 5***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 82, apparently still only 9deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  7, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 75 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients. More demographic details are awaited, but the CDC today notes that obesity is obviously a major risk factor- as usual.

Update 19 May 17h30 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 41 countries – 10 232 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*5469  Mexico*3648; Canada*516;  Panama*59;  Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 2; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 10*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**102; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Greece 1**; Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 191, China 7;  S Korea*** 4; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1; New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 80, apparently still only 7 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  5, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 73 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 18 May 15h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 40 countries 8862 cases:

The AMERICAS: 14 countries: USA*4714;  Mexico*3103; Canada*516;  Panama*55;  Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 1; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Chile 2*; Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**101; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia: Japan*** 135, China 6;  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1;      New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 76 , apparently still only 7 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  5, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 69 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 17 May 19h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 40 countries 8817 cases:

The AMERICAS: 13 countries: USA* 4714;  Mexico*3102; Canada* 516;  Panama* 54; Colombia 11*; Ecuador 1, Peru 1; Costa Rica* 9;  Brazil* 8, El Salvador* 4;  Guatamala* 3;   Cuba 3,   Argentine* 1 ;

EUROPE  18 countries: Spain** 103; Portugal 1**; UK**101; Ireland 1 ** ,  Belgium 5**, Netherlands** 3, France** 14,  Germany**  14,  Italy** 9;   Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 3**;  Denmark 1**, Poland 2**,  Austria 1**,  Switzerland 1**,   Turkey 2;  Israel* 7;

East/Asia:  8Japan*** 93, China 7;  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Malaysia 2; India 1;    New Zealand*** 9, and Australia 1***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 75 , apparently still only 6 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  4, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 69 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 16 May 07h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 8485cases USA* 4714;  Mexico* 2895; Canada* 518; Spain** 103;  UK** 85; Panama* 43; France** 14, Germany**  14, New Zealand*** 9, Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,   Colombia 11*;  Japan*** 4, Belgium 4**,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  Cuba 3, S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Poland 2**, Malaysia 2, and one  each Ecuador, Peru; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,  Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 73 , apparently still only 6 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  4, Costa Rican 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 67 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 15 May 06h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 7737cases USA* 4298;  Mexico* 2656; Canada* 449; Spain** 100;  UK** 78; Panama* 39; France** 14, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Colombia 10*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Belgium 2**, and one  each Cuba*; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 70 , apparently still only 5 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie Americanos  3, Costa Ricna 1 and Canadian 1- and all in  chronically  ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 65 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well  patients.

Update 14 May 21h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 34 countries – 7673cases USA* 4298;  Mexico* 2656; Canada* 389; Spain** 100;  UK** 78; Panama* 39; France** 14, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Colombia 7*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**;   Belgium 2**, and one  each Cuba*; Argentine*;   Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**,  Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**;  and Australia***.

All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 69 , apparently still only 4 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie in USA, Costa Rica  and Canada- and all in previously very ill patients. There is still no clarity as to whether any of the associated 65 deaths in Mexicans occurred in previously healthy well young patients.

Update 13 May 20h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 33 countries – 6483cases, plus ??  suspected  cases;  USA* 3370Mexico* 2446; Canada* 358; Spain** 100;  UK** 71; Panama* 29; France** 13, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 9, Colombia 7*;  Japan*** 4,  China 4***; El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Netherlands** 3,  S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Finland 2**; Sweden 2**; Argentine  2*;  and one  each Ireland**,  Austria**, Belgium**, Denmark**, Switzerland**,   Poland**, Portugal**; Australia***;  Cuba*.

Update 12 May 20h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 33 countries – 6042cases, plus ??  suspected  cases;  USA* 3139Mexico* 2282; Canada* 330; Spain** 98;  UK**  68; Panama* 18; France** 13, Germany**  12,  Italy** 9;  Costa Rica* 8;  Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7,  Japan*** 4,   Netherlands** 3,  El Salvador* 4; Guatamala* 3;  Colombia 6*; S Korea*** 3; Thailand 2***;  Norway** 2; Sweden 2**; China 2***; and one  each Ireland**,  Austria**, Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Finland 2**; Poland**, Portugal**; Argentine  2*; Australia***;  Cuba*.  All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent* – the total deaths now amount to 63 , apparently still only 4 deaths in non-Mexicans  ie in USA, Costa Rica  and Canada.

update 11 May 14h00 GMT: the rate of new cases seems to be dropping everywhere, altho laboratories are catching up with the backlog to reveal the extent of those outbreaks in the minority of  regions which could afford or bothered with  testing. Only 4% of confirmed cases have been reported outside the Americas-  and of the 221 cases elsewhere , 202  have been in the 13 European coastal ie Atlantic-Baltic-Mediterranean  countries.

The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 30 countries (up from 19 a week ago) – 5351 cases, plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA* 2733 plus another 433 suspected;  Mexico* 2062; Canada* 284; Spain** 95; UK**  65; France** 13, Germany**  11,  Italy** 9; Costa Rica* 8; Brazil* 8, Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7,  Japan*** 4, S Korea*** 3; Netherlands** 4, Guatamala* 3;  El Salvador* 4;   Panama* 15; Colombia 3*; Norway** 2; Sweden 2**; and one  each Ireland**  Austria ** Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Poland**, Portugal**; Argentine *   Australia***; China ***  and  Hong Kong***.  All reported associated deaths so far have been on the North American continent.

ie proven swine flu cases:  5021 in the Americas*; 204 in Europe-Israel**; and 17  in the West Pacific arc***. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

61  deaths (57 in Mexicans) have now been reported in patients with confirmed swine flu, but only 28 have so far been  clearly and solely attributed to the virus (not other causes) –  all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 33 deaths  with swine flu virus  but not proven attributable eg   in  very high risk patients  – all Mexicans, plus 2  Americans, a Canadian and a Costa Rican) .   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all proven cases there is thus ~2.8%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border

update 10 May 15h00 GMT: The  tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections is as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 30 countries (up from 19 a week ago) – 4571 cases, plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA* 2432 plus another 433 suspected;  Mexico* 1626 (plus  >533 suspected cases); Canada* 280; Spain** 95; UK**  48; France** 12, Germany**  11,  Italy** 9; Costa Rica* 8; Israel* 7,  New Zealand*** 7, Brazil* 6, Japan*** 4, S Korea*** 3; Netherlands** 3, Guatamala* 3;  El Salvador* 2;   Panama* 2;  Norway** 2; and one  each Ireland**  Austria ** Denmark**, Switzerland**,  Poland**, Portugal**, Sweden**; Argentine * Colombia*;  Australia*** and  Hong Kong***. All reported deaths so far have been on the North American continent.

ie proven swine flu cases:  4364 in the Americas*; 194 in Europe-Israel**; and 16  in the West Pacific arc***. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

Although 53 deaths have now been reported in patients with confirmed swine flu, only 28 have been attributed to the virus (not other causes) –  all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 25 deaths  with swine flu virus  but not proven attributable eg   in  very high risk patients   in 21 Mexicans, in  2  Americans, a Canadian and a Costa Rican .   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases there is thus ~1.2%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border.

update 9 May 15h00 GMT tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 29 countries- 4040 cases , plus >1500  suspected  cases;  USA 2224 plus another 412 suspected;  Mexico 1364 (plus  >533 suspected cases); Canada 242; Spain 93; UK  39; France 12, Germany  11,  Italy 8; Israel 7,  New Zealand 7, Brazil 6, Netherlands  3, Japan 3, S Korea 3;  El Salvador 2;   one  each Ireland  Austria  Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden; Argentine  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Guatamala;  Panama; Australia and  Hong Kong.

ie proven swine flu cases:  3843 in the Americas; 180 in Europe-Israel; and 15  in the West Pacific. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico attributable to swine flu are simply not happening. Hence the growing feeling that the deaths in Mexicans are due to another bug so far eluding detection eg strep pneumonia- which would not be detected unless different specimen are cultured. .

Only 28  deaths attributed to   proven Mexican  flu have been confirmed – all in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); (plus another 20 deaths  suspect but not proven attributable eg  one  each in  a very high risk woman each in an American woman (cause of death not disclosed)  and  Canada (died from asthma).   The attributable death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases there is thus ~1.5%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border.

The above stats do not mean that the outbreak has not occurred everywhere. It may simply be that cases (and deaths) are indistinguishable from other infections in vast areas like Africa, Arabia, Russia, China, and are not being monitored and tested for reporting in >70% of the world’s people & countries. .

update 8 May 19h00 GM tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows ( confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 26 countries- 3446 cases , plus >3300  suspected  cases; Mexico 1364 (plus  >1700 suspected cases); USA 2224 ;  Canada 242; Spain  93; UK  40; Germany  11, France 12,Israel 7,  New Zealand 7, Italy 8;  Brazil 6,Netherlands  3,  S Korea 3;  El Salvador 2;   one  each  Argentine 1, Colombia, Costa Rica;  Guatamala;   Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden; and  Hong Kong.

ie proven swine flu cases:  3255 in the Americas; 174 in Europe-Israel; and 9 in the West Pacific. The relative population size in millions of the  USA : Mexico: Canada  is 309 to 109 to 36; so it is to be expected that the total number of Americans infected (let  alone dying)  will be 3 times higher than of  Mexicans let alone 15 times higher than of Canadians. But the deaths outside Mexico are simply not happening – and even in Mexico, the fatality rate among those swine flu positive is s0 far only 0.4%

48  deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – 46 in Mexicans (another 100 deaths suspect); ( one in  a very high risk American woman Texan  living on the Mexican  border severely obese, already pneumonic after recent childbirth; and one in a very high risk elderly Canadian woman in Canada;).  The death rate in (near) Mexicans  relative to all suspected  cases is thus ~1.5%, but none  directly related elsewhere away from the Mexican border. The impression grows that the new hybrid strain is in fact less virulent than the seasonal flu viruses long circulating around the world; and that in Mexico and elsewhere, as in 1918 , deaths are either where this new mild virus has become the final tipping straw, or else death is in fact due not to the incidental swine flu virus but to a co-infecting bug – eg the strep pneumonia (which killed most in the ’18  H1N1 epidemic) or one of the prevalent virulent influenza A  N2- or N3- or N5-H.. viruses.

Update 6 May 20h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows (no longer reporting WHO figures as up to yesterday, but confirmed cases reported by all countries):  world- 23  countries- 2267 cases , plus >4100 suspected  cases; Mexico 1112 (plus  >2955 suspected cases); USA  831 ;  Canada 165; Spain  81; UK  32; Germany  9, France 7,New Zealand 5, Italy 5; Israel 4, El Salvador 2;  S Korea2;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland,  Poland, Portugal, Sweden, Guatamala..

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  1726 ie 92.6% ;  W Europe+ Israel 134;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland EurAsia O.

Update 5 May 21h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows:  world- 21 countries-  1478 cases , and 833  suspected probable cases; Mexico 806 (out of >2950 suspected cases); USA  405 ;  Canada 140; Spain  57; UK  28; Germany  9, New Zealand 6, Italy 5; Israel 4, France 4, El Salvador 2;  S Korea2;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica;  Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal.

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  1355 ie 90% ;  W Europe+ Israel 113;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland EurAsia O.

27 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 5 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yr. The death rate in Mexicans relative to all suspected  cases is thus about 1%.

Update 4 May 17h00 GMT: tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows:  world- 21 countries-  1103cases out of >4600  suspected probable cases; Mexico 590 (out of >2500 suspected cases; USA  293 ;  Canada 101; Spain  54; UK  27; Germany  8, New Zealand 6, Israel 4, , El Salvador 2; France 4,  Italy 4;   one  each  Colombia, Costa Rica; S Korea, Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal.

ie confirmed cases: the Americas  949; W Europe+ Israel 103;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland Asia O.

26 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 5 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yrs.

update 3 May 16h00 GMT:  Mexico, USA, Canada, UK   and Spain have extra cases confirmed, and  3 new confirmed related deaths in Mexico- the last in  midweek- but no new countries have confirmed cases since yesterday.  Now another 11 suspicious  cases have reportedly died in Mexico since yesterday.  But no evidence of confirmation has been disclosed.   SO THERE IS NO PANDEMIC, and no spreading epidemic- only North America is heavily involved.  So the only slight possibility of this mild flu epidemic outside the Americas is in Western Europe.

People die everyday – the majority suddenly- of both common and bizarre  causes.  It is hair-raising that after a month, there are still no reports anywhere to indicate whether deaths in cases with the hybrid American flu virus had any clear cause of death attributable to the virus eg virus meningitis, virus pneumonitis, virus carditis, virus hepatitis,  etc. So there is no proof yet that this H1N1 virus has actually killed anyone (as  opposed to them dying of malnutrition, exposure, bacterial or other viral  infection, cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc, although also carrying the new hybrid H1N1 virus). Is the analogy AIDS? where the cause of death is often secondary infections.

tally for LABORATORY-CONFIRMED American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections as follows: world- 19 countries-  909 cases out of >4120  suspected probable cases; Mexico 506 (out of >2500 suspected cases; USA  233 (and another 514 probable?) ; Canada 85; Spain  44; UK  18 (and another 9 probable?), Germany  8, New Zealand 4, Israel 4, Costa Rica 2, France 2 (and another 7 probable?),  Italy 2;   one  each  Colombia, S Korea, Hong Kong; Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   Denmark, Switzerland.

ie confirmed cases: N America  826; W Europe+ Israel 83;  west  Pacific  6; Africa O; mainland Asia O.

20 deaths associated with  proven Mexican  flu have been reported – only   in Mexicans (another 101 deaths suspect). 4 were 13yrs or younger, 4 over 60yrs. No autopsy results yet confirm whether overwhelming Mexican flu has actually caused a single death. . . The associated death rate in Mexico is   still only 4% of confirmed cases – which means that by now – if it is the American swine virus causing death- around  18 deaths could have been expected in non-Mexicans. But so far there have been no very ill cases or suspicious deaths  except in Mexicans . . is this just a false alarm, or a profiteering conspiracy?

update 2 May 17h00 GMT:   THERE IS NO GLOBAL EPIDEMIC NOR THREATENED PANDEMIC. Despite a gross  of  recent flu cases being screened in Australia, not one has so far been positive for the hybrid virus there. And very few cases of person-to-person transmission have been reported outside Mexico. Outside Mexico, the cases have been milder than the seasonal flu that kills tens of thousands of elderly folk every year.

SEE THE UPDATED PRECAUTIONS/TREATMENT.

tally for confirmed American (swine/ Mexican)  flu infections are as follows:  world- 17 countries-  714 cases (up from 265 in  3 days- out of >4700  suspected probable cases); Mexico 443; USA in 3days doubled from 64 to 162; UK  15, Canada-13 to 55, Spain 4 now 15; Germany  6, New Zealand-4, Israel-3, Costa Rica-2, France 2,  one  each Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   S Korea  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland.       Africa O.

(“Confirmed” is where the specific virus has been isolated.)

25 other countries have suspect cases.

17 Deaths associated with  swine flu have been reported only   in Mexicans – but no autopsy results yet reported to confirm whether swine flu has actually caused a single death. . .

This recalls the experience in the 1918 H1N1 Spanish flu  epidemic that deaths were due to superinfection with strep pneumonia- which is easily treated with antibiotics, although antibiotic resistance may now be high in countries  where antibiotics are freely available and overused.

There have been no more deaths or serious cases related to this American hybrid flu virus reported- but more tests are awaited to see if the deaths in Mexicans could be related to eg a different H1N1 virus, or to strep pneumonia that speculatively accounted for most of the  1918 flu epidemic deaths.

update 1st May GMT 17hoo: the identifying name of this virus is a problem: the first case  was in USA, not Mexico. But the brunt, and all deaths, have been in Mexicans. The virus is a mix of human, bird and swine genetic material- but this hybrid  hasn’t been found in swine yet. There have been lots of type A H1N1 viruses – and worse- around the past century.

so the handle of American  hybrid  flu is the most appropriate.

The reference labs are swamped with backlog of  samples from suspect cases, so the number of confirmed cases and countries will rise- but the number of new suspects seems to be leveling off- with no new serious cases reported from Mexico, and still none serious  anywhere else in the world. There is no sign of a pandemic.

But the news bulletins say nothing about the 2500 cholera deaths in 40 000 cases in Zimbabwe..

Apart from probable cases, the  tally for confirmed swine flu infections are as follows:  world- 17 countries-  533 cases(up from 265 in  2days- out of >4400  suspected probable cases); Mexico 312; USA in 48hrs doubled from 64 to 141; Canada-13 to 35, Spain 4 now 13; UK  11, Germany  4, New Zealand-4, Costa Rica-2, Israel-2,  one  each Netherlands  Ireland  Austria   S Korea  Denmark, Hong Kong, Switzerland, China    ..  South Africa O.

13 confirmed  Mexican  deaths reported  related  to the swine virus – but without autopsies, not  proven that they were due to the swine flu. Other nationals no deaths.

Except in Mexicans, nothing more than average flu symptoms have been reported in confirmed  or probable cases.  So the mystery remains: why have only Mexicans died with this virus?   Deaths  cannot be  from the swine virus alone if no-one but  Mexicans have died from it.

And until autopsy details are released from Mexico confirming that the “confirmed cases” died from overwhelming swine flu, there is no confirmation that this swine flu outbreak is even virulent.

But already the outbreak has become a multibillion dollar windfall for USA between antiviral, vaccine and screening kits.. and a costly disaster for airlines due to the media hype. So far there is no indication to start mass-producing vaccine that will only be available months hence, when the new virus is likely to have greatly changed it’s genetics by then.

Since the outbreak did not start in Mexico but in USA, and is a hybrid avian+ swine+human virus, the least confusing is to stick with the name swine flu- there are worse earlier H1N1 viruses around the world.

update 30 April 17h00 GMT: at midday GMT there  were apparently 108 confirmed swine flu cases reported in the USA- up from 64 +- 36hrs before.

update 30 April 07h00 GMT “The UN’s World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the alert over swine influenza to level five – one short of a pandemic. A phase five alert means human-to-human transmission in at least two countries.”  Only 8 of of the   168 confirmed cases of swine flu have died in Mexico.

Independent on line an hour ago says two  suspect cases have been reported  locally, in Gauteng and West Cape. But so far there has not been a single case of serious illness in  let alone danger for a  non-Mexican in or coming out of Mexico, nor in  anyone who has been in contact with travelers from Mexico. So there is no justification  for the media hysteria, nor for the risky costly American antiviral drugs. All suspect cases so far (other than in Mexicans)  have been average mild flu – and very few cases have been confirmed with the virus even  in Mexico. Many cases of our regular flu this season have been worse than confirmed swine flu cases in non-Mexicans .

So there is nowhere near a pandemic on the horizon- just a lucrative scare for media, for Disease Agencies like the CDC and WHO, American Authorities and the Disease Industry- laboratories and (American) Drug and vaccine and H1N1 screening kit  companies, and pharmacists!.

update 29 April 21.30 GMT: 10 US states have now reported 121  suspect swine virus cases including 1 death in Texas, a visiting toddler from Mexico. Total 2917 suspect cases worldwide .  120 deaths  in Mexicans (few have yet been confirmed as due to swine H1N1)  with 168 cases confirmed swine H1N1 cases out of >2700 suspected cases. . The WHO tally for confirmed infections are as follows: US-64, Canada-13, Britain-5, Spain-4, Germany-3, New Zealand-3, Costa Rica-2, Israel-2, and Austria-1.. none yet in RSA or Australia or Asia or Africa.

update 29  April 07h34 GMT so far good  news-  just on 2000 cases reported from Mexico- but no further deaths there, and no serious cases anywhere else in the world. They are looking frantically for an alternative reason for the deaths – 152 so far reported ,  but few as yet confirmed swine virus –  in Mexicans.

updated 28 April 2009 15h20 GMT. The USA and then WHO  today declared Swine flu  a level 4 health emergency, a pandemic.  See the up-to-the minute report .. it has spread around the world in 2 months.

But so far – unlike in previous flu epidemics-  there are no reports of serious illness eg pneumonia, encephalitis, carditis,  collapse or deaths outside Mexico, not even on the latest Australian or CDC websites.

Why is this swine H1N1 virus affecting especially those between the ages of ~20 – 50yrs?

50years  from 2009= 1959. So the last related outbreak must have been before that time- to give us oldies immune memory protection: perhaps we acquired some  genetic  immune resistance from our parents who survived the 1918 ( also H1N1 swine virus ) flu pandemic (my father was a warden in that epidemic- which killed one of his 11 siblings; his parents, and my grandmother’s parents, had survived the perilous journey out of Russia in the early 1880s, likely after surviving  the great flu epidemic of 1857-9).

But this doesn’t explain why the current outbreak also spares those under 20years.

But we peak in the mid-20s, that’s when all systems start aging.. . and in first-world communities, most are attending group educational institutes if not living carefree for most of those youth years, possibly enhancing group immunity, and before the real stresses of work and kids and smoking and alcohol  hit us…

However, it is  futile to speculate on the affected agebracket since virtually all cases originate in Mexico, where diet, ecology  and lifestyle must be radically different from the other countries whose citizens have been affected.

Why are deaths occurring only in Mexicans? especially when no trace of swine flu has been detected on the piggeries there?

is it Hispanic genes making them more susceptible?

is it an as-yet unidentified bug that is unmasked by/ coincidental to the mild flu contagion that tourists are carrying out?

is it a local acute or chronic toxin that the Mexicans have been exposed to that makes them more vulnerable to this swine flu?

The fact that in Mexico it is mainly the 25-45yr olds who have been affected points especially to workplace exposure? what is the smoking, drug usage, diet, vocational and gender spread of the victims? The first confirmed case of swine flu occurred in California days before the first reported case in Mexico.

Shades of Jose Samargo’s brilliant 1995 novel Blindness, in which an unidentified contagion in an unnamed country inflicts white blindness on almost everyone – and no-one is ever referred to by name.  Shades of New World and Olde World  peoples 500 years ago who were decimated when previously unknown infections scythed through them, brought in by immune humans or eg rodents. Shades of the carnage of AIDS in subSaharan Africa but no-where else, about which conspiracy theories circulate.

PRECAUTIONS against both ‘flu and colds: see the list.

No swine flu cases have yet been reported from  Africa; but with pandemic TB, AIDS, cholera etc, and winter biting hard this month to herald the usual bad flu season, it will be harder to distinguish acute swine flu from other potential  flu/ common cold infections.

Take this list and go ask you local infectious disease specialist, as well as your health care provider-  but above all, take the simple preventative nonprescription  steps listed .. .

So far the most deaths have been reported in  Mexicans ( apparently <2% of those infected – compared to the global estimated deathrate of  2.5% in 1918)  – and only 11  (so far) in visitors with flu returning home  from Mexico ie 0.3%. So this may turn out to be another profitable false alarm for USA Big Pharma to mass-sell antivirals and imminent specific vaccines- as apparently happened after the SARS scare a few years ago, which fortunately  never became the predicted  fatal global  pandemic..

help-line ph +0027836299160.

Healthspan Life!*

ndb

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2 responses to “UPDATE AMERICAN HYBRID SWINE ‘FLU (H1N1) SPREAD:

  1. Pingback: FLU (influenza A or B) and all infection PRECAUTIONS/ TREATMENT: « Healthspanlife - the Official Life! Blog

  2. Pingback: A FALSE FLU ALARM? WHAT IS KILLING MEXICANS IN THE CURRENT FLU OUTBREAK? « Healthspanlife - the Official Life! Blog

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