neil.burman@gmail.com Cape Town, South Africa

CONSPIRACY OF SILENCE, DENIALISM?  THE FLARE AND CURE OF MERS?- MIDDLE-EAST SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY- RENAL SYNDROME SARRS  CORONAVIRUS  OUTBREAK; AND EBOLA?  : An Inconvenient truth?  human (sunshine-) vitamins C+D DEFICIENCY  syndrome facilitating  a benign virus spread from eg  camels  (or mosquitos) to middlemen eg camelmen  to human vit C/D deficient  contacts- in whom the infection becomes lethal ?.   Copyright reserved.  A narrative  diary journal since August 2013

ALWAYS READ IN CONCERT WITH avoiding-the-semmelweis-reflex-vitamins-c-d3-avoiding-vitamin-denialism

and  diet-nutritional– vitamin risks-and-benefitS 


21 Sept 2014  MAJOR  SAUDI  UPDATE: the KSA Ministry‘s recent audit found  some 19 previously unlisted MERS cases in the 10 week April -May 2014 surge – All but three of the cases were in Jeddah- plus some false positives , and  changes of status.. Thus while there have been 2 new Saudis cases near Mecca and 1 in Riyadh  the past 4 days- and  death of a  27yr old previously ill Saudi  man  in Taif,  these brings  the total new cases this month to  8 with 5 in the past week -      the totals there now are  9 Cases Under Treatment, 424 Cases Recovered, adjusted 750 Total; and 317 deaths ie death rate 42%.

Despite the surge in KSA in the ~10 weeks mid-March till early June, before  the peak summer season in the Northern Hemisphere,   the ongoing outbreak in KSA (12 cases there since the month’s lull till mid-August)  contrasts with the last MERS cases reported outside KSA  in early-mid-July   about 10 weeks ago - 2 cases in Abu Dhabi ie the UAE,  & 5  in Iran. .

So thats a total in KSA of 20 more new cases  and 13 more deaths  than were reported before the audit on 12 Sept.  Of the  KSA 749 total,   27% were  healthcare workers; 65% were Saudis;  the vast majority this season in Jeddah and Riyadh;  ​​​​61% male; 4% under 16yrs, 45% between 16-45, 27% 45-60. and 24% 60+ years. ie approx  15% of all cases in  every 15year age bracket from 16yrs up, but only 4% in the first 15 years. Deathrate was “only” ~18% in  EACH OF the three  15year agebrackets up to 45 years, but 45% in the 46-60yr olds; and quadrupled to 80% over age 60years.Thus unlike eg flu,  MERS is par excellence only in the elderly a highly risky infection .

MERS IN KIDS:   the likely number in KSA extrapolated from 4% of 749 cases is about 30  kids under 16yrs;  but the new KSA  bargraphs show ~18% deaths in kids ie about 5-6 died.

but In Dr Memish’s April paper there were only    11 pediatric cases  positive by screening and confirmatory PCR for MERS-CoV reported from Saudi Arabia. Two patients were symptomatic and the other 9 cases were asymptomatic. The median age of patients was 13 (range 2-16) years. There were eight females and three males (2.7:1 ratio). One symptomatic patient died  (1/11 = 9%) and the other symptomatic patient recovered. The diagnosis of patients was based on positive nasopharyngeal swabs on the majority of the patients.  Most cases of childhood MERS-CoV infection was asymptomatic and tested positive during contact investigation of older patients. Severe disease can occur in children with underlying conditions.

So in KSA  with a mean population age close to 20 years, the age distribution is roughly spread across adult lifespan, sparing  (with both low incidence and low mortality) children who make up almost half the population. This is the opposite of the claimed swine flu severity in kids in the “pandemic” of 2009.  Perhaps in KSA this is as expected since generally schoolchildren take more dairy products, get more exercise, sunlight, fresh produce  and supplements, and wear less sun-exclusive clothing- supporting  vit D+C deficiency evidence as the proximate  cause of MERS-CoV susceptibility in KSA adults..

So despite repeated published warning from the top KSA scientists that their conservative (ie covered) dress and diet  code puts Saudis at very high risk of known vitamins C & D & Zinc deficiency, the blackout on acknowledging this and promoting vigorous vits C and D3 & Zinc supplements continues, with 80% death risk for the elderly and 20% for every  child who contracts MERS in KSA. Until proved otherwise by simple trial of vigorous supplements, this  denial, omission    in fact may be culpable homicide on the part of KSA authorities- especially as the KSA, with a mean annual income per head similar to UK and western Europe and with similar Caucasian origin population, notoriously has life expectancy 5 years lower than that of UK and much of the North Atlantic  lands. .

16 Sept 2014  one new case today 31yr old expat male, prev chronic, in ICU Riyadh; yesterday  76yr Saudi male  in the far south, prev chronic, in ICU. total thus 730, 29 active,…  already 5 in 2wks this month.. as the Hajj picks up…

12 Sept 2014 Bad news strikes KSA with the Hajj in full swing- after 3 clear days, 2 new MERS cases but not in the eastern provinces like the last cluster, this time one each in Riyadh and the Mekkah region, both Saudis, both in ICU;  but not the usual seniors- a 38yr old male with previous health issues;  and 28yr old female, neither of them healthcare workers.                                                                    So now the KSA numbers are 28 under care;  399 recovered; 729 total; 302 died.

8 SEPT 2014 after 9 case-free days, the 727th  new case, 60y old male expat, in Jubail, in ICU…

31 August 2014 THE KSA MERS CASE RATE PICKS UP: 42% death- rate: another new case 29 Aug, a 34 yr old expat health worker in Jubail, ie 3 cases in past 7 days. another MERS-related death- a 69yr old Saudi man in Dammam- as usual, with preexisting disease. .  So KSA has  now  25 Cases Under Treatment;    399 Cases Recovered ; 302 cases died;  total  726 Cases ie 42% died.  45% dead or impaired.    5 new cases past month.  and apparently 4 deaths. KSA reporting does not allow analysis of duration of illness to assess the current mortality rate.

Yet  Drosten, Memish ea from the international  Corona Virus Study Group write in the NEJM this week:  “Transmission of MERS-coronavirus in household contacts is only 5% in 26 MERS index patients and their 280 household contacts. Strategies to contain the MERS-CoV depend on knowledge of the rate of human-to-human transmission, including subclinical infections.   The median time from the onset of symptoms in index patients to the latest blood sampling in contacts was 17.5 days (range, 5 to 216; mean 34.4d“.

This again confirms  the obvious, that the virus, like the common cold, is low virulence and transmissibility EXCEPT in the frail  and elderly – who (perhaps like many overworked hospital workers)  in KSA who as reported there  apparently get little sunshine, little vitamin D3, and likely little vitamin C. The rate of MERS in students, kids, farm workers, labourers  remains very low, presumably because they get plenty of sunshine. And no article/report on MERS from KSA – where all adults are forced to cover up their skin outdoors- says that anyone is encouraged to vigorously top up their vits C and D3 levels.

OUTCOMES: triangulating cases  scantily reported on the KSA MERS website   with 30 new cases since mid-June,  5F (28-55yrs, 4 Saudis)  and 25 men; there have been 8 deaths all in men between 38 and 80yrs old. The high deathrate in the men may be because their average age was about 59yr vs 41yr in the women.

August:   5 new cases  (1 Saudi  female; 1 male  an expat HCW; 2 of the men- 69 and 72yrs, Saudis, chronics,   died within 3 and 6 days respectively ),

July:  10  cases;  2 Saudi female; of the 8 men, 2 are HCW , 2  expats- one of whom died the same day aet 73yrs.

June: 24 cases.  Reporting was upgraded 1 June, so stats before July- with the ~100 case undated backlog reported- are problematic. from mid June there were 15 cases reported, 3 females; 5 deaths (2 expats aet 38 & 42)  in the 12 men; the Saudi deaths were aet 45-80yrs.

27 August 2014  2 new cases past 3 days, Saudi man and woman in Dammam.(one subsequently proven false +ve)   25 Cases Under Treatment, 399 Cases Recovered ;   725 Cases   Total;   301 cases passed away .

 24 August 2014: 12 days free of new MERS cases in KSA.      but on 22 Aug the death of another male, a 66yr old expat, was reported in Riyadh,  this  totals  23 Cases Under Treatment, 399 Cases Recovered; 301 cases passed away, (May Allah have mercy upon them). * Total  723 Cases.  44.8% dead or impaired.

​​​​But Alghamdi ea from the KSA Govt &  Universities, and Lincoln University UK have this week  published  The pattern of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Saudi Arabia: from June 2013-May 2014  ie some 425 cases (before the recent June “discovery” of another 100+ cases there). This study deduces that the outbreak thrived especially in Riyadh and Jeddah  with high temperature and low humidity ie summer desert conditions;   older men being at much higher risk than their kinswomen. . But once again, the paper  studiously avoids the obvious reasons why KSA is at the hub of the MERS storm. The authors   like the KSA authorities totally ignore the repeatedly published studies by their own academics the past decade, and even by USA authorities like Prof Mike Holick, that Saudis have markedly low vitamin C and D and even zinc levels. And their increasingly orthodox overdress as they age and have more leisure time drastically increases their vitamin D deficiency.

This comes back to usual Media and Governmental  Semmelweis denialism , persisting  with the myth that good diet  and prescription medicines are  enough.  In fact balanced nutrition with fresh natural produce is becoming a rarity even in stable progressive urban cities, and  the resultant epidemics of infections let alone degenerative diseases are in most cases due, (apart from deliberate pollution especially with plastics, estrogenics , pesticides, endocrine disruptors eg phthalates,  heavy metals including fluorides, bromates;   dioxin etc,  radioactivity,  and high refined carbs,  and inadequate fish oil and medium chain triglycerides  and water intake),  to micronutrient deficiencies especially of vitamins C, D3, K2,  and crucial minerals like magnesium, zinc, iodine, selenium, chromium  etc.

Modern infectious outbreaks like the resurgence of influenza, polio, TB, HIV  and MERS, and hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola and Marburg, are arguably as others have proposed deficency diseases – eg scurvy, since all the severe infections listed, never mind acute bacterial infections, have been shown for almost a century to respond dramatically to highdose vit C, vit D3 and some zinc, and multivite (A,B), without antibiotics or much benefit from eg ARVs or tuberculostatics. .

     As of 12 pm  August 20, 2014:  “now only 25 Cases Under Treatment; 398 Cases Recovered Total  723 Cases;  300 cases passed away”

​​​​    19 August 2014 : KSA  updated figures  no new MERS cases past  7 days.  BUT  another death- a 72yr old Saudi man  with previous chronic disease,  in Riyadh on 17 Aug. so  “As of 12 pm  Aug 19, 2014:  723 Cases,  26 Cases Under Treatment; 397 Cases Recovered; 300 cases passed away   (May Allah have mercy upon them).”. ie the death + impaired rate  326/723 has risen to 46.4%, deathrate 41.6%. ?? 855 cases, 334 deaths  worldwide?

So thats 326 patients in KSA who died or are still impaired by MERS, who might have been spared by simple highdose vits (D3 +  C) supplement-at trivial cost,  no major adverse effects, but massive evidence of protection and cure against all serious diseases; in a population at long-known high vits C+D3 deficiency risks. .

The Zeitgeist occupation analysis of MERS cases to 4 June shows unchanged pattern: 164 Health workers,    150 retired persons,  23 children,  11 pilgrims, 3 tourists,  2 construction labourers, 1 butcher, 1 camelbreeder, 1 shepherd… (out of 838 cases reported till then- ie occupation was disclosed in only 44% ie 380 pts) . The reason for the majority nondisclosure is not given.

The question remains: why are (inter)national authorities ignoring all the published evidence linked below, that vigorous dose vitamin D3 supplement eg 5000iu/kg  loading dose then 1500iu/kg/fortnight eg 100 000iu every two weeks , plus a few grams of buffered vitamin C a day, drastically reduces all diseases including virus infections?

12 August 2012 KSA  reports (after a month free of new cases)  despite peak summer there, two new  previously chronically ill   Saudi cases  in two days:  a 72year Riyadh man; a 59 year old  man far south of Riyadh; and death of a previously reported apparently formerly  well 74 year Riyadh Saudi man. But they dont say when these recent elderly Saudis took ill or died.  Total in KSA now 723 cases, 41% deaths. 28 cases under treatment  ie 45.2% dead or impaired. ..

To put MERS in perspective, Ebola in Central Africa this year has  infected  over 2000 cases, 50% deaths, probably worsening the >100 000 malaria deathrate per year in the region, globally >200 million cases a year with a million ie 0.5% deaths.. ..  Mosquito-spread Chikungunya virus spreads from Africa/Asia   to over 570 000 people  across  the central Americas .. …   .

9 Aug 2014  still not over:  NOT THE END OF THE ARABIAN MERS CoV OUT- BREAK-  STILL MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS, :  its now  30 days since the last reported MERS case –  BUT  the  fact  is that the KSA Bulletin chillingly reports  “As of 12 pm  9  Aug, 2014:    1.” still 27 Cases Under Treatment     2. 396 Cases Recovered.  3. 298 cases passed away (May Allah have mercy upon them).  total 721 case.   so 30 days after the last recorded new case,   27 patients there are still suffering from MERS sequelae – for at least four weeks duration now, likely now permanent?. .

27 cases out of 721 total reported in KSA is only about 4%. But since these 27 cases remain under care a month  after the last reported new case, they must now  be at best approaching chronically impaired, if not on renal  or respiratory assistance.  ie the total of dead and impaired rises to 325/721 = about 45%. More important, KSA has apparently not yet released an analysis of the demography and primary and secondary causes of death of these cases- presumably by MERS definition, respiratory and renal . This analysis is urgently needed. All we know for certain is that there was a MERS outbreak apparently in one of their Dialysis units; and that the outbreak was especially bad in health workers especially hospital staff.

COMBINED SEVERE ACUTE RENAL AND RESPIRATORY FAILURE: Forty years ago we (Burman ND, Austin M, Thatcher GN ea) delivered a review of Groote Schuur Hospital experience at a local South  African renal congress on the high mortality of combined  acute renal and respiratory failure in the age of hemodialysis and ventilators, respiratory intensive care, antibiotics and immunosuppression. . Apart from the common major sepsis,  trauma and allergic eg antibiotic  causes, the obvious “primary” cause – which any virus eg MERS-CoV  may mimic- , is the “autoimmune” hypersensitivity Goodpastures Syndrome GPS – which untreated has a mortality of ~80% but with modern treatment perhaps 20%. This is half the deathrate reported in KSA from MERS. There is no shortage of respiratory and renal ICU and dialysis, advanced medical specialists  in KSA centres. So from GPS perspective, much better salvage might be expected.

GPS is rare affecting about 1ppm (0.5-1.8 per million people) per year in Europe and Asia.[5] The peak age ranges for the onset of the disease are 20-30 and 60-70 years.[5]  It is also unusual among autoimmune diseases in that it is more common in males , less common in blacks than whites. This may partly explain why the inhabitants of the dromedary-exporting Horn of Africa have been spared MERS outbreaks.

A recent review from Germany gives the mean time from onset of MERS to acute renal failure of only 11 +-2 days (c0mpared to 20 days in SARS). It is well reported that those contracting acute MERS are already sufferers from major chronic illnesses eg diabetic- cardiorenal-respiratory ie heavily predisposed to  immune failure if not already in renal failure.

Humans have some four  primary excretory/detox  systems: hepato-gastrointestinal; skin; renal; and  lung. In Arabia, water is scarce, the desert climate is hot and dry, and the obligatory dress for the observant almost total body cover by robes. So MERS SARRS is high risk especially as it knocks out the two main excretory systems- renal, respiratory, and in  very high ambient temperatures  also the skin;  except for the affluent minority  who have aircooled spacious private homes and offices;  with  often a reported  element of viral gastroenteritis, akin to influenza. .

The mystery remains: why is the  UAE reporting 73 cases/9.2million ie 8 per million,  but only 12% mortality, compared to the adjoining KSA 721 cases/30 million ie 24 per million?  with 93% of world MERS cases recorded from KSA and UAE, and all cases anywhere traceable back to the Arabian Peninsula. The KSA and UAE urgently need to publish an analysis of the demography and pathophysiology of their MERS cases. Is it mostly indigenous Arabs who are contracting and especially dying from MERS in these countries, or also many foreign workers, mainly malnourished labourers?

A major factor is likely demographic: Wiki says In KSAThere are 20 million Saudi citizens and 5 million foreigners living in Saudi Arabia.[14] Most Saudis are Sunni Muslims, approximately 23 percent are Wahhabis, With the world’s second largest oil reserves , the Kingdom is categorized as a high income economy with the 19th highest GDP in the world.   Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy.[70] However, according to the Basic Law of Saudi Arabia adopted by royal decree in 1992, the king must comply with Sharia (Islamic law) and the Quran, while the Quran and the Sunnah (the traditions of Muhammad) are declared to be the country’s constitution.[71] According to The Economist‘s 2010 Democracy Index, the Saudi government is the seventh most authoritarian from among the 167 countries rated.[72]. The ethnic composition of Saudi citizens is 90% Arab and 10% Afro-Asian.[212] Saudi Arabian dress strictly follows the principles of hijab (the Islamic principle of modesty, especially in dress).

In the UAE ie Emirates, Wiki says in 2013  UAE’s total population was 9.2 million; 1.4 million Emirati citizens and 7.8 million expatriate ie  16.6% Emirati (citizenry), 23% other Arabs,  54.4% Asians,  and 6.0% other expatriates. Thus the relatively democratic  & liberal  UAE has only 40% Arab ie (majority also Wahhabi) Muslim  population, compared to  some 90% in the KSA. .    in 2005, 76% of the total UAE population was Muslim, 9% Christian, and 15% other (mainly Hindu). Census figures do not take into account the many “temporary” visitors and workers while also counting Baha’is and Druze as Muslim.[65] Among Emirati citizens, 85% are Sunni Muslim, while Shi’a Muslims are 15%.

The comparable life expectancy in the  bigger but relatively poor mostly caucasian countries of Europe is 80 yrs (Portugal), 81 (UK) to 83yrs , and 84.6 in Japan. Why the richer   KSA has so much lower life expectancy can only be due to combination of culture (overdress?) and perhaps genetics-  but Israel, also a predominantly eastern mediterranean semitic people, like Europe  has life expectancy of  82.1 years. on that tabulation, UAE expectancy is 79.2yrs, USA 79.8, but KSA  only 74.3.

Comparison of Gross domestic product and per capita income for 2014 fail to explain the differences in life expectancy ie survival between the highest earning countries, with KSA, UAE, Israel and much of the middle east countries falling in the $30 to $40 000 per capita income bracket.

NO NEW CASES WORLDWIDE: 4 suspected  MERS cases  investigated in Hong Kong after arriving there  via Dubai have proved negative for MERS.

while Ebola, AIDS, cholera, polio  and bubonic plague spread despite major efforts at containment… with at least USA and UK preparing for ebola outbreak, and China for the  bubonic plague.

8 August 2014  Ebola virus disease EVD update – West Africa  Disease outbreak news     Between 5 and 6 August 2014, a total of 68 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 29 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.     On Wednesday, 6 August and Thursday, 7 August, an Emergency Committee  determined  that   the current outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. and advised that:                 it constitutes an ‘extraordinary event’ and a public health risk to other States; the possible consequences of further international spread are particularly serious in view of the virulence of the virus, the intensive community and health facility transmission patterns, and the weak health systems in the currently affected and most at-risk countries.

It was the unanimous view of the Committee that the conditions for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) have been met.   New cases and deaths attributable to EVD continue to be reported by the Ministries of Health in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. Between 5 and 6 August 2014, 68 new cases (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) of EVD and 29 deaths were reported from the four countries as follows: Guinea, 0 new cases and 4 deaths; Liberia, 38 new cases and 12 deaths; Nigeria, 4 new cases and 1 death; and Sierra Leone, 26 new cases and 12 deaths.

As of 6 August 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the four countries stands at 1 779, including 961 deaths. The distribution and classification of the cases are as follows: Guinea, 495 cases (355 confirmed, 133 probable, and 7 suspected), including 367 deaths; Liberia, 554 cases (148 confirmed, 274 probable, and 132 suspected), including 294 deaths; Nigeria, 13 cases (0 confirmed, 7 probable, and 6 suspected), including 2 deaths; and Sierra Leone, 717 cases (631 confirmed, 38 probable, and 48 suspected), including 298 deaths.- mortality rate so far 55%.

For a viral hemorrhagic illness, as for acute MERS and flu,  Ebola treatment and prevention  remains supportive, including plenty of fluids and salts, multivites incl K1,   highdose vitamin C eg a few grams hourly to tolerance,  vitamin D3 perhaps 300 000iu orally to start then 100 000iu weekly, iodine, zinc, selenium, garlic, ginger, ecchinacea and colloidal silver till out of the woods.. . 

29 July 2014  the first Wiki update in weeks  indeed shows no reported increase in KSA cases with 41% fatalities; but total Arabian Peninsula cases up to 825 with 321deaths  ie 39% fatalities, and  96.3% of global – 855 cases and 331 deaths ie 39%.

 28 July 2014 THE END OF THE ARABIAN MERS CoV OUTBREAK? its now apparently 18 days without new MERS cases reported from KSA , compared to 6 cases in the previous week… .              so the Wiki figure of WHO-reported cases  in the Arabian Peninsula (plus the 2 recent cases in UAE)  totals 814/(835 globally  ie 97.5%  of reported world cases),  with 315 Peninsula  deaths ie 38.7% fatality rate- but only 13% in the  far less coverup- restrictive UAE with its huge foreign worker population. . . supporting the studies of KSA scientists  of more severe vit D deficiency in the most covered-up observant people, citizens of Saudi Arabia and its fellow ultra-observant Wahhabi bordering neighbour states (except the UAE)  to the south and east. .

and now Ebola epidemic outbreaks kill hundreds in central Africa.  The nocturnal fruit bat (that locals eat)  is apparently the vector. There is strong reasoning that these could be prevented, successfully treated (humans if not bats) with safe highdose vits C and D3.  Like humans, all tested families of bats, including major insect- and fruit-eating bat families, cannot synthesize vitamin C,.    and have very low vit D levels,  make vitamin D only if they roost in sunlight.

and Central Africans are very darkskinned, and the masses malnourished from rampant  genocidal wars, so they will have the lowest levels of vitamins C and  D3. 

20 July 2014  MAYBE..  JUST LACK OF REPORTING?          ‘s A Time’s Memory   to 17 July shows  17  more reported MERS cases (all outside the KSA -still 721  cases, 297 deaths): globally 852 with 329 deaths;   Arabia 829 with 319 deaths; ie rest of world 23 cases and 10 deaths-  similar mortality 41% in Arabia compared to 43% in the 23 infected cases who returned to  their own countries  (middle east, north Africa, Europe, USA, Malaysia, Philippines) not on  the Arabian peninsula- from  their visit/working  there or,  rarely, contact with returnees. .  So has the outbreak  stopped in the past 10 day

ps the USAEBN radio website reports startlingly different case numbers in far fewer  nations, especially tenfold more cases  in Qatar and half the number in UAE.  Time will tell. . this high occurrence in Qatar is not reported anywhere else? on 24 July it reports for KSA alone  834 Cases (897 in the Arabian Peninsula); 288 Fatalities. globally 873 cases with death rate only 35%.      still the massive discrepancies with startlingly far more cases in Qatar and Philippines and far less in the UAE. This website claims, perhaps not implausibly,  that “Government Organizations Do not want to publish total numbers of cases for fear of panic, USAEBN will be trying to track it.”

Virologist Dr Ian MacKay IN MID JULY  puts the world total of cases at 846 in his informative analysis of age and gender demography.

But with neighbouring Iraq in civil war breakdown and even polio flareup, who knows how many there are suffering and dying from unmonitored  MERS CoV.

14 July 2014  The UAE reports 2 new cases of MERS CoV – the first in a long time-, bringing their total to about 73 cases, 9 deaths ie 12% fatality. . KSA reported one new case 10 July ie  4  past week, and 5 in each of the  the  previous few weeks; with no deaths, tally now 721 cases, 295 deaths ie 41%.                       The UK Gov travel warning is about terrorism in the region, not MERS.

The vexed question of the method of spread of MERS CoV between animals- dromedary camels- and humans  continues to be hotly debated between expert virologists and camelmen. The KSA has still not issued [ any restriction on camel imports from the suspected source of the MERSCoV- the Horn of Africa.

But the argument is irrelevant for practical purposes.  Tradition, belief  dies hard, like the strictly enforced hijab overdress, and camelkeeping: Riyadh’s camel market stretches several miles along a highway out of the city. It’s not true. Camels occupy a special place in Saudi society,  We live,  sleep,  eat and spend our whole lives with camels, we drink their milk, its a medicine.. There’s no disease,” said a trader at the market”.       Its the story of 160 years ago, the cholera-spreading London’s  Broad St water pump until Dr John Snow recognized and stopped the source of the cholera diarrhoea epidemic.   This  far more lethal KSA  lung-kidney epidemic is simpler- encourage people worldwide to get plenty of free natural sunshine , or if living at far north darker  latitude or  practicing hijab and unable to sunbathe- especially over Ramadan- take at negligible cost  vigorous supplement of vitamin  D3 to a high safe  bloodlevel .

8 July 2014  Spread of MERS CoV- Down but not out: from 15 cases a day in early May,  now KSA has reported  8 new cases past 7 days;   ie 720 total, 294 deaths- 4 new cases past 3 days, with 1 new death. 18 new cases in 24 days since 13 June. So the rate of new cases is not dropping there the past month – or simply more cases being tested and reported. Only sick cases who see doctors, and their contacts, and city  health workers,  are likely being screened.

The death rate in KSA  since the outbreak 2 years ago remains 40%.      why should this be? other than that Saudis do not benefit from the midsummer as do other populations-  they remain shrouded in overdress and thus severely vitamine D deficient? and the virus seems to spread not airborne  but by direct contact – human to human, or camel-(milk?)-human?  and the KSA has not yet been reported to have stopped mass camel importation from the Horn of Africa for butchers to supply meat.

MERS CASES BY OCCUPATION:     Shane Granger has tabulated more recent reported MERS  cases by occupation where data is available  –  >375 cases:Health Care Workers (HCW) the  largest group – 161:  includes all types of unidentified Health workers (i.e. Nurses,  Doctors, hospital and clinic staff).                             Retired: also  161 (incl Pilgrims 11).                                             Schoolkids 18 -third. Farmers 12 – fourth.  .  tourist 3; construction 2;  Camelbreeder, butcher , shepherd one each.

The retirees are the elderly, generally frailer, probably more at leisure, more orthodox ie more ritually overdressed?  and circulating /concentrated more through/in  the cities especially Mekkah, Riyadh,  Jeddah, and visiting the more frail and sick worldwide; thus more susceptible.

Healthworkers are obviously the most stressed and hardworking,  exposed to concentration of symptomatic MERS cases and thus ingestion and surface (if not droplet) contamination .

The major surprise is the low occurrence in schoolkids, pilgrims, and non-health industry workers, teachers, clergy, armed forces,  shop  and office staff, non-healthcare  govt workers,    etc.

This also favours nutritional ( sunlight/vit D/C/zinc) deficiency as a significant factor in susceptibility of retirees and healthworkers to MERS. The general population (unless seriously ill with other disease)  is largely immune to MERS, like flu and common colds, in them  the MERS CoVirus seemingly causes nothing more.

4 July 2014  frail pilgrims  should postpone the Hajj this year.  the  European Centre reports     KSA 716 cases, 293 deaths;    worldwide 843 cases (817 in Arabia incl now 4 in Iran), 322 deaths. in 21 countries, ie 21 cases outside the Middle East (ie outside the camel contagion area  south-east across the Arab states that have had 791 cases so far)  .  So thats about 10 new cases over the mid summer  in KSA the past 15 days so far. Only 1 new  death.  Case reporting from the rest of the world lags behind.


So the Philippines has advised its citizens to postpone Hajj to Mecca this year.

Certainly  frail pilgrims – especially with diabetic and cardiorenal/respiratory diseases -all over the world will be wise to  postpone. And the KSA is at last considering stopping import of camels (4.7 million a year mostly for human consumption,  – mostly from Somalia, which has never reported a MERS case) –  from the Horn of Africa- their main meat supply. This appears to be the source of the outbreak- simply camel colds that kill only sickly humans who unlike camels avoid sunshine by edict… .    Up to April 2014, it was predominantly a disease of older men; (it appears that camels are men’s work);  but by midMay the male dominance in human MERS cases was fading.

But is the core problem the well-camel MERS-Covirus carriers? It is in fact more likely that the prime cause is that the entire KSA population is at extreme risk – both because those who can afford it overdress by religious edict, especially upperclass Muslim women in total coverup and thus badly vitamin D deficient;  and  because the KSA imports vast numbers of mostly poor unskilled foreigners to do mostly manual work. Such poor labourers are usually undernourished, living in poor conditions, and with poor access to medicines and medical care until they collapse; and unless outdoor labourers, living and working long hours indoors, and hence also badly vitamin-D and C deficient. .   The Wiki review  Saudi Arabia  “Foreign workers estimated them to number 1/3 of KSA residents recently.  Saudi Arabia has become increasingly dependent on foreign labour, and although foreign workers remain present in technical positions, most are now employed in the agriculture, cleaning and domestic service industries. The hierarchy of foreign workers is often dependent on their country of origin; workers from Arab and Western countries generally hold the highest positions not held by Saudis, and the lower positions are occupied by persons from Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia.  the situation has persisted because of a reluctance by Saudis to take on menial work and a shortage of Saudi candidates for skilled jobs.[.. The Saudi economy has, therefore, remained dependent on importees for expertise in specialized industries, and on the Asian workforce for the construction industry, menial and unskilled tasks.[8]  Saudization is generally considered to have been a failure.[10]

THE MERS-CoV CAMELTRAIN FROM AFRICA:   This again begs the huge question:  if camels carrying asymptomatic airways MERS CoV are indeed the virus vector from Africa –  almost 5000 a year from Somalia alone- imported into KSA  through Jeddah port,  WHY ARE THE  EXPORTING  CAMEL- TRADERS and camel- breeders IN NORTH AFRICA NOT  SUFFERING vastly from MERS  respiratory-renal syndrome?  They are likely Muslim if not black Africans;  oil-rich Arabia employs vast numbers of overseas expats as labourers, and outside the KSA, Arabia especially the UAE  hosts hundreds of thousands of non-Muslim professionals. But unlike say Indians and other Asians, Pinoys and Malaysians are mostly Muslim, so are more likely to observe cover-up dress code,  and thus be more vulnerable to MERS. . This again supports the evidence that   the current symptomatic serious MERS-CoV   SARRS – Severe Acute Respiratory Renal Syndrome –  that occurs in and kills almost exclusively vit D deficient frail observant Muslims  – is due to conditioned  sunlight deficiency.          The north African camel breeders and traders, and  the camel herders and camel men in Arabia  ( like cowboys on the prairies and herders worldwide in hot  climates), are unlikely  devout well -berobed  Bedouin  of Arabia.  Camelmen like cowboys get  plenty of sunshine vit D, if only via bare faces and arms; and thus can with probable impunity,  immunity against MERS, drink raw camel milk and travel with vast camel herds.


27 June 2014 update: (compared to  13 June 2014 KSA  702 cases, 292 death, worldwide 826 cases, 326 deaths): there are now reported in KSA 710 or 718 cases ie 8 -16 in 2  weeks, no more deaths; and globally  833 cases & 322 deaths. . Australian virologist Dr Ian Mckay postulates why vast camel imports (from Africa, via Jeddah  port)  for eating  is likely the source of MERS in Saudi Arabia.                 He omits the obvious link in the chain, that the deathrate from MERS CoV is far  lower outside Saudi Arabia because  this sunny  country is the strictest in the world for enforcing Wahhabi hijab total overdress code   and thus profound acquired vitamin D deficiency even in men,  and worse in  females who  in public  – unlike men- must have even their  heads and faces veiled by a niqab- and in pilgrims from other lands who as part of  their holy pilgrimage undertake to follow permanently  the strict hijab dresscode. Their simple option is  to take effective permanent  vitamin D3 orally  eg 50 000 iu weekly.

IT IS COMMON CAUSE THAT ONE DOESNT, CANNOT   PREVENT OR TREAT INFECTION BY POOR NUTRITION OR LOWDOSE ANTI- MICROBIALS- such policy is futile if not dangerous for breeding resistance as well as disease extension.   The studies below confirm the obvious, (as Klenner, Pauling,  Cameron ea showed the past 50 years with highdose vit C injection), that  vitamin D3 orally also works as a multiantimicrobial agent if given as early as possible in safe very high dose and bloodlevel eg 600 000iu monthly (in the first month, – in Salhuddin’s  Pakistan PTB patients (presumably also Sunni muslim) initially mean wt 45kg, thats vit D3 ~440iu/kg/d) for two doses ie a mean of 300iu/kg/day over 90days;   not the current preventative recommendation of 80iu/kg /day to a safe blood level of around 50-60ng/ml. As Holick has said, with adequate water intake  even 50 000iu vit D3 a day ie 1.5million iu/month for months causes no toxicity. Given the 40% mortality rate in the frail Saudi MERS patients, and in acute severe influenza and other serious viral infections, it can be expected that such  highdose immediate vitamin D3 therapy orally with eg 600 000iu, combined with highdose vitamin C, zinc and some multivite,  (never mind appropriate antibiotics in acute bacterial infection) will similarly virtually eliminate mortality.


But no KSA Govt website mentions this- except the Saudi Gazette a year ago which strongly urged vitamin D supplement in the KSA as even daily sun exposure does not bring most Saudi women above the vitamin D deficiency threshold. It says Since Muslim women can only reveal the hands and face, they may need to be out in the sun for longer than 30 minutes. But the review conspicuously  fails to mention that in public outdoors in KSA, women must have even the head and face covered. It also  propagates surprising  dangerous  nonsense that “severe deficiency needs monthly vitamin D injectionMom, have you taken your vitamin D injection this month?, when all it requires is an oral daily, weekly  or fortnightly  dose vitamin D3  at trivial cost.” It does stress  “One of the main reasons why vitamin D deficiency is so common in the Kingdom is because there are very few food sources of vitamin D. Foods which have fairly good amounts of vitamin D are fish liver oil, sweet potatoes, egg yolks, vegetable oils, butter, and fatty fish such as salmon, sardines, and tuna,” said Dr. Rasha Jameel, a consultant in family medicine at a local hospitalIn the United States, all milk and dairy products are fortified with vitamins A and D, but no such measures are in place in the Kingdom“.


This correlates with a new metaanalysis (in the  BMJ this month) of observational studies from Europe and USA, that all-mortality hazard ratio over a mean of 10 years  increases by 57% as vit D level falls from the highest to the lowest level. The KSA apparently chooses to ignore that, as this column reported recently from WHO data, despite  apparently being the wealthiest country per capita  of bigger populations  in the world,  KSA’s population life expectation is about 5 years lower than eg far less sunny Britain’s; ie KSA  all-cause mortality rate is avoidably materially higher. Despite KSA medical professors  having reported in studies  that most of the KSA population is deficient in vits D and C, the  KSA Govt website  chooses to ignore this on official websites;  unlike other even Middle-Eastern governments promoting vit D fortification or meaningful safe supplements costing trivial amounts.


Even a new study last year from KSA universities confirmed that ” Most commonly consumed food products by Saudi population which are supposed to be fortified by vitamin D are either not fortified or contain an amount less than  (apparently  from their table 2 ~ half of)  recommended by guidelines set for US marketplace”. Even a UAE authority recently stressed “Can fortified milk fight Vitamin D deficiency? Shockingly low levels of D3 among UAE population cannot be rectified by milk alone.” As Holick ea, including  a Turkish University 2010  trial report,  oral vitamin D3 is far more  effective , and safer than,   either vitamin D2, or vitamin D injection -never mind much cheaper. This current ostrich-head-in-the-sand denialism by the KSA government is like that of the RSA govt under Presidents Mbeki and Zuma 10-15 years ago about preventing and treating HIV-AIDS  – considering that the safe and beneficial daily intake of vitamin D3 is now universally recognized as 4000 if not 10 000iu/day (ie about 80iu/kg/day or pro rata up to perhaps fortnightly) , to a mean blood vit D  level of about 60 to 80ng/ml. .


As Prof Mike Holick pointed out a few years ago, “Even in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and South Africa, more than 50% of the population is deficient in vitamin D, all because of their avoidance of sun. Based on some of the literature, it seems that we could probably decrease health care costs across the board by 25% if everybody had optimal vitamin D status.” As Al Faraj ea reported in Riyadh in 2003,   Prof Zahid Naeem from a KSA university wrote in 2010,Vitamin D deficiency is an ignored epidemic in KSA  and globally“; confirmed by a KSA study by Ali ea in 2012:Even in a sunny country like Saudi Arabia the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in young female is high“..  One does not need to  speculate why the KSA and all governments globally choose to ignore this inconvenient truth,  downplay effective vigorous  vitamin C and D3 (sunshine) supplements-  such widespread vitamin D and C deficiencies, like cigarette smoking and alcohol abuse,   suit governments and Big Pharma-  the Disease Industry- in reducing populations growths and creating jobs for the highly profitable Disease Industry and it’s shareholders-   for whom Only Disease Pays. Cheap safe natural  Prevention Does not Pay since it at least halves sickness never mind disease industry jobs, taxes  and profiteering in the global $multitrillion Disease and Diet and Vaccine and Invasive Screening Industry scams.


And Karen Hansen ea at Univ Wisconsin 2014 have  just shown  that  giving vitamin D2  (not D3)  50 000iu fortnightly for a year is actually adverse – as Holick and others have  show – IT DEPRESSES – perhaps halves – THE BIOLOGICALLY ACTIVE blood 25OHVIT D3 while boosting perhaps 5 fold the far less active blood 25OHvit D2 levels , and actually worsens  rheumatoid arthritis clinically and serologically . One can speculate whether vit D2 actually blocks optimal function of VDRs vitamin D receptors. Trials published 2012 from Japan and Netherlands showed that vitamin D3 – blood 1,25(OH)2D3 (but not TNFalpha blockers) blocked  inflammation (ie TNF tumour necrosis factor alpha activation of vascular calcification).                                                 


Salahudfin ea’s new randomized controlled trial  from Pakistan Vitamin D3 injection accelerates clinical recovery from tuberculosis  shows “impressive clinical (weight gain, chest xray and sputum clearing)  improvement  over 3 months on outpatient TB therapy (Directly Observed Therapy (DOTS) with 2 months of 4 antituberculous drugs [Isoniazid, Rifampicin, Ethambutol and Pyrazinamide] followed by 6 months Isoniazid and Ethambutol)  with two doses 600 000iu vit D3 imi  (vs placebo inj)  a month apart-  ie equivalent to about 7 000iu/day over the 3 months treatment period . This dose  of vitamin D is as recommended for vitamin D supplement by the Pakistan Endocrine Society.  Trough  25OH vit D levels increased from about 20 to 90ng/ml.    After 12 weeks, the vitamin D supplemented pts (mean 28 yrs, BMI 17.2kg, 85% moderate to far advanced lung disease)  had  significantly greater mean weight gain (kg) + 3.75, (3.16 – 4.34) versus + 2.61, p 0.009; lesser residual disease by chest xxray-  30% fewer zones involved 1.35 v/s 1.82 p 0.004,   and 50% or greater reduction in cavity size 106 (89.8%) v/s 111 (94.8%), p 0.035. Vitamin D supplementation led to significant increase in MTBs-induced IFN-g secretion in patients with baseline ‘Deficient’ vitamin D serum levels (p 0.021). Patients in the vitamin D arm and serum < 30 ng/mL (‘Insufficient’ and ‘Deficient’ groups) at enrollment had significantly greater improvements in TB severity scores compared to patients with normal baseline vitamin D levels; p 0.014. This corresponds with the earliest reports of the benefits of vitamin D in TB patients published in 1848 [21] that describes disease arrest, weight gain and reduction in mortality in patients with TB treated with cod liver oil compared to standard therapy alone. More recently, Martineau et al  [7]  demonstrated that a single oral dose of 2.5 mg (100,000 IU) of vit D2 significantly reduced growth of mycobacteria . A randomized, placebo controlled study on 67 Indonesian patients, by Nursyam et al , Jakarta  [22] reported that pulmonary TB patients given 420,000 IU of vitamin D over 6 weeks  ie 10 000iu/day had significantly higher sputum conversion rates as compared to placebo (p 0.002). Martineau et al. [8] showed that 100,000 IUs of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 supplementation significantly improved sputum conversion rates in patients with the Taq1 25-hydroxyvitamin D receptor polymorphism of the tt genotype.                                                                     .        


            As Salahuddin ea note, the good results in Pakistan in only 3 months with vigorous  INITIAL dose vit D3  contrasts with Two recently published large randomised, controlled trials of conservative vitamin D3 over months  that achieved far lower blood vitamin D levels found no difference in clinical outcomes or mortality:           after 400,000iu of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 or placebo were given by   Martineau ea  in London, UK to 146 pulmonary TB patients – where mean (trough  or midpoint)  vit D level  (after 100 000iu vitamin D(3) or placebo at baseline and 14, 28, and 42 days after starting standard tuberculosis treatment) – was surprisingly only  40ng/ml at 56days – ie after a mean of 7000iu/d by  56 days,  vs 10ng/ml  on placebo)- less than half of the bloodlevel  achieved on vit D3  in the Pakistan trial ;      


        and  by Wejse et al  2009  in  Guinea-Bissau to 365 TB patients  – who received  300,000 IUs of vit D3   ie only 100,000 IU or placebo at inclusion and again 5 and 8 months after the start of treatment,  ie below 1000iu vit D3 per day over the 12 month trial period “. The Guinea-Bisseau pts thus might have achieved a mean blood vit D level boost of only  10ng/ml.. and now Havers ea (Baltimore)   show Low 25(OH)D is common in diverse HIV-infected populations and is an independent risk factor for clinical and virologic failure; Low 25(OH)D was associated with high body mass index (BMI), winter/spring season, country-race group, and lower viral load. Baseline low 25(OH)D was associated with increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) progression and death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09–4.18) and virologic failure (aHR 2.42; 95% CI, 1.33–4.41). and Shepherd ea (Eurocoord) Low Vitamin D predicts short term mortality in HIV-positive persons Odds of death decreased by 46.0%( P = .04) for a 2-fold increase in latest 25(OH)D level.. In patients with current 25(OH)D <10 ng/mL, hsIL-6 concentration increased by 4.7%(95% CI, .2,9.4, P = .04) annually after adjustment for immunological/inflammatory markers, and no change in hsCRP rate was observed (P = .76)

19 June 2014 update  no new cases reported from anywhere the past few days, may be because the KSA is not reporting regularly.   so the great news is that more than 2 years after the onset of the MERS CoV outbreak in Arabia, no ongoing transmission has been reported from any of the 22 countries so far affected.


THE POLIO  SPREADING GLOBAL EPIDEMIC This decline of the MERS outbreak with the heat of summer contrasts sadly with the now-declared  global epidemic of wild natural  poliomyelitis- which was hoped to be extinct by now, with Hindu- run India being declared polio-free; but now  spreading out with mass refugees from wherever war and chaos are successfully ignited by profiteers and fanatics  to neighbouring countries. Eg   an expanding militant  Islamic Wahhabi  arc – ie ultraorthodox overdress code – predisposing to vitamin D deficiency?  from Asia- Pakistan, Afghanistan, to middle east – Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Israel;        to East/West Central Africa eg Somalia, Cameroon, Ethiopia,  Kenya, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, –  with 365 cases reported in 2013. Perhaps more important is zero natural virus cases in Niger and Chad but cases caused by the circulating vaccine derived virus.  The wartorn  DRCongo  and Sudan are likely next polio outbreaks, while Angola has banned Islam because of its perceived militancy. …


And in February,   never mind an outbreak of polio-like paralysis in northern California, a new case was  reported  in a  South African neighbour-  in Botswana – for the first time there  in 20 years -; “Polio virus is endemic in five countries besides Nigeria: Afghanistan, Egypt, India, Niger and PakistanScientists confirmed that the virus isolated from the boy in Botswana came from Nigeria by laboratory tests that showed it was genetically similar to the strain that has been infecting children in Nigeria . In the past 18 months, polio viruses genetically linked to northern Nigeria have caused new cases of polio in nine previously polio-free countries. Besides Botswana, they are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Togo.” So polio is likely to break out in RSA  not because of Islamic overdress but because of the masses of war refugees absorbed by democratic dispensation  from the polio-afflicted African states to the north, and poor water supplies, sanitation and nutrition,   in so many areas in the northern provinces, despite mass polio vaccination. . In Cape Town’s poorer  areas’  clinics, we see almost as many foreign pan-African refugees as we do local black Africans.

VITAMIN C & D AGAINST POLIO: but as with flu, HIV, TB and likely all infections, the rescue remedy that the Disease Industry  firmly ignores  is freely available also against polio (and all other infections –  as shown so successfully by Dr Fred Klenner after WW2 with highdose vitamin C);  and at least two  published studies  in modern times ie on Pubmed (FDA- Ivanov 2006 USA)  shows the predictable enhancement by vitamin D3 as an adjuvant  of immune response to vaccine against  poliovirus- presaged by a 1949 paper from Foster ea Univ Pennsylvania . .

15 June 2014 new case reported in the 23nd country – Bangladesh, arrived from USA via Abu Dhabi airport. But now disproven. CRUCIAL EFFECTIVE VITAMIN D3 DOSING: TRIALS USING SUBOPTIMAL VIT D DOSES AND LEVELS ARE MISLEADING:            A major new  metaanalysis of the benefit of Vitamin D and Respiratory Tract Infections VIDARIS in PLOS 2013  by Sweden’s Karolinska  Institute Bergman ea showed that in the 11 relevant trials (published between 2007 and 2012 ie done through the first decade of this century) using vit D3, “Overall, vitamin D showed a protective effect against RTI (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.84). And the average vit D level at baseline was only 24ng/ml, but with the mediocre  vit D3 doses used then  of average 2000iu/d (300 – 4000iu/day) given for between 7wks and 3 yrs, the average bloodlevel achieved on replacement was only 50% higher at 36ng/ml”.      This confirms more direct experience  with higher doses that blood level increment, and benefit,  is proportionate to vit D3 dose, at least up to the proven speculative  safe upper dose of at least 10 000iu/day (whereas the proven safe longterm daily dose is> 50 000iu/day). “More important, the protective effect was larger in studies using once-daily dosing compared to eg monthly  bolus doses (OR = 0.51 vs OR=0.86, p = 0.01)”. This concurs with our experience of major benefit  against respiratory infection that is  based on published studies giving a loading month’s dose of about 80-100 iu/kg/day  ie ~3000iu/kg; then that monthly dose split conservatively eg 50 000iu every week or two depending on mass, and severity of ill-health; to a more successful blood-level of 60 to 100ng/ml. Similarly, the  2014 VIDA trial   across USA-    Effect of Vitamin D3 on Asthma Treatment Failures in Adults With Symptomatic Asthma and Lower Vitamin D Level, Castro ea,  showed “Vitamin D3 for 28 weeks did not reduce the rate of first treatment failure or exacerbation in adults with persistent asthma and vitamin D insufficiency. These findings do not support a strategy of therapeutic vitamin D3 supplementation in patients with symptomatic asthmaBut this trial had the same severe limitation as the Swedish metanalysis of vit D3 benefit- it also used only 4000iu/d. “While all were vitamin D insufficient ie below 30 ng/ ml  before the trial and half were deficient with levels below 20 ng/mL, supplementation brought levels above the 30 ng/mL threshold for 82% in that group – mean levels were 41.8 ng/mL at week 28 in the supplement group, while the mean stayed in the deficient range for those who got placebo. ”  So 4000iu/day merely doubled the bloodlevel to only about 40ng/ml – only about half of the putative optimal dose.  These recent studies force us to conclude that bad weather, and  bad prevalent respiratory viruses,  and especially with major acute, or chronic illness as in those with or at risk of serious infections eg major trauma or sepsis,   MERS-CoV, Ebola, malaria, cholera, cancer, diabetics, smokers, asthmatics, bronchitics,   AIDS-TB., pneumonia and old age  sufferers, and especially hospital, laboratory  and clinic- health workers-  we should for an average 70kg adult give a loading dose of about 4000iu/kg, ie 300 000iu, then 10 000 iu/d,  or 50 000iu every 5 days, or more simply 75 000iu (about 1.5ml of 100cws vit D3 powder) weekly; or at a stretch, 300000 if not 400 000iu monthly. . As  the common  imported vit D3 powder concentrate  is 100 oooiu / Gm ie per 2 ml, it is simple to take the slightly sweetish powder up to  2 or more 4 ml teaspoons ie 200 000  -400 000 iu on the tongue.    The majority of residents of developed countries now live urbanised with mechanized transport, and – especially in Muslim or cold countries-  dont  live and work / walk  all day stripped in the sun. The poor malnourished  peasants  live crowded in ghettoes , and  the poorest are generally the darker skinned and therefore make the least vitamin D3. So with rare exceptions, everyone needs the vigorous vitamin D 3 doses discussed above. But at the prevalent bulk vit D3  powder price of  at most about  US$0,o2 per 100 ooo iu, at a mean population age of around 20 to 25 yrs -outside  Europe- it would cost a country of eg 50 million people perhaps $o.5 per head per  year ie conservatively $25 million a year to prevent > 90% of common illnesses including drugging and violence consequences.  Of course no government can tolerate  such massive loss of jobs and taxes  in a decimated disease industry that now turns over $ trillions annually – up to 18 % of national budgets.     So it’s up to individual adults, especially householders, educators and employees ,  to see that the cheapest cure-all  after clean water – vitamin D3 – at $2/citizen per year-  is recommended and freely available.


13 June 2014 KSA now has apparently reported 702 cases, 292 deaths ie 14 more cases, 12 more deaths in past 11 days.. worldwide 826 cases, 326 deaths. And a new multinational vitamin D study  confirms why vitamin D3 not D2 must be given. TIME TO SWOP FROM MISNAMED  “STRONG CALCIFEROL” VIT D2 TO THE REAL VIT  D3. 6 June 2014   on the 10th anniversary of the SARS epidemic , a new 2013 review (by Japanese epidemiologists) Remembering SARS-CoV: A Deadly Puzzle and the Efforts to Solve It brings home the lessons, the similarities between the two recent killer coronavirus outbreaks, in both outbreaks affecting only residents of closed communities (Arabia and China respectively), with carriage of the virus by travelers into their closed kin communities elsewhere. .  Especially the problems of hospital confinement, and superspreaders.          Sun-blocking culture among the Chinese whereever they live in their ethnic communities is also stressed in modern literature. Lu et al 2012 show very high levels of vitamin D deficiency in Shanghai. The  obvious lesson of the past decades was not noted then or now- prevention is better than cure, as in AIDS and pneumonia and all other infections, simply by superboosting the immune boosters within sensible limits –  sunshine/vitamin D3 and C, zinc, iodine, selenium; and for the likely deficient, appropriate iron .. 4 June 2014. Saudi Arabia reports confirm they have indeed  uncovered many more cases, as tabulated by the Wiki report yesterday- 689 cases, 283 deaths. Shane Granger in his Random Analytics concurs. The graph by the KSA authorities shows that most of the unreported cases reputedly occurred from March through to the first week of May, and that that outbreak is almost over, down from a peak of over 100 cases a week ie at the end of their winter- when vitamin D levels are at their lowest-  to about 25 cases a week. .They do not say when the excess MERS-related deaths occurred. Who knows how many more cases and deaths are underreported from the KSA, when the annual Hajj is imminent, and religious tourism is a vast industry for the KSA. This  MERS outbreak is in contrast to  the 8200 recorded case SARS (coronavirus) outbreak of 2002/3 in China, S.E.Asia, (Canada and USA)  and sparsely across Europe – but only 1/4 of the MERS’ ie  9.6% mortality . Just one case was recorded in the middle east and Africa- in Kuwait. Although the SARS and MERS  viruses were traced through mammals to bats, the affected populations were genetically  different-  Chinese  versus Arabic ie Caucasian. But a decade after the SARS outbreak, Chinese in Shanghai also had 85% below the vit D insufficiency threshold (30ng/ml) at the end of winter.  An International Osteoporosis Foundation study of 2009 showed very high prevalence of vit D insufficiency throughout Asia including China- but worse in Malays. Thus the susceptibility to and mortality from SARS and MERS  in the respective races- like Swine flu susceptibility in the frail in USA and Mexico in 2009 and anywhere since-   is likely due like any disease to the combination of both socioeconomic  burden, genes and sunshine vitamin deficiency. But whereas socioeconomics;  genes; and ethnic taboo on sun exposure as in strict Muslims,  are not easily correctable,  traditional micronutrient deficiency is- especially vigorous vitamin and mineral  supplements, without offending cultural taboos.                                                                  

3 June 2014 update :   In the past 5 days, Google websites  reported 2 new  cases/d in KSA.  BUT Wikipedia this evening reports the latest collation: in KSA, 688 cases with 282 deaths ie 41% mortality; this is far higher than in its close 7 Arab neighbours  including Iran, with a total of only  89 cases but only 26% mortality. If these figures are accurate, there have apparently been 125 cases in KSA since 29 May ie 25 new cases/day there; but 96 deaths ie 19 per day. But this gross epidemic has not been reported on Google, so hopefully the Wiki MERS tabulation will be corrected- unless it because the KSA was not announcing cases. .  Apart from the 8 Middle East nations counted above, the Wiki  figures for the outside 16 countries in the rest of the world  – 25 cases,  7 deaths ie 28% mortality, are more consistent with reports to date outside KSA, and moderately lower than  the fatality rate reported in KSA . All MERS- confirmed cases were contracted in the Arabian peninsula (or from travelers from there). All adults  in the KSA including visitors  would by edict be  almost totally robed  when  outdoors, the women also with hijab. On the other hand,   observant pilgrims from non Arab countries are more likely both older-  having chronic degenerative diseases ie more vulnerable- , but  likely  get more sunshine skin exposure at home,   and taking protective supplements before and after; thus possibly explaining  the lower mortality and low  prevalence of carriage of MERS outside Arabia.  The average  Saudi Arabian is aged around 20years, but  the young there presumably  face the same policy   against skin sun exposure,  and apparently against protective micronutrient supplements. 31 May 2014  Mers update   the past 2 days just one new case in Saudi Arabia, but 2 cases in Algeria back from KSA  - the 21st country ; and now a total of 6 cases in Iran with 1 death.

29 May 2014: The 26 May Cape Town suspect’s  deep nasopharyngeal swab screens  have proved negative for Influenza A eg swine flu, and MERSCoV, and she is recovering. . The NICD says they have perhaps  5 requests for screening in returnees from KSA, all negative for MERS CoV. KSA reports 3 new cases past 48hrs ,  while of recent screened cases there, 4 more  have recovered and gone negative. ie  565 cases , but 6 more deaths ie 186 died -  33%;                Worldwide  thus at least 680 cases / 215 died. But apart from KSA and Jordan (5/10 died= 55%) the fatality rate in the other 19 countries reported is thus  also 22.6%, as low as 13% mortality in UAE if their figures are to be believed.  The problem is we dont know how many subjects were screened in each country to get the perspective.. Perhaps UAE simply screened many more ‘well’ people with “flu’. of recent cases reported from countries outside Arabia, virtually all presented clinically with serious URTI.  Only 2 MERS-COV cases have been finally confirmed in USA, both travelers back from KSA. Thus it is apparent from all the screening patchily reported  the past 2 years that:                                                                                                                                                          1. air/physical contact  crossinfection between humans (as between camels and humans)  is common; 2. but resultant  actual colonization (ie the asymptomatic MERS CoV carrier- akin to say the common staph nasal carrier)  is reassuringly low- likely in mildly immunocompetent people with suboptimal   vigorous eg vit D3 levels and intake of vits C, zinc etc; and  cleared naturally within days; 3. BUT of those colonized with  invasive MERS CoV  who actually present sick enough-ie with MERS-  (generally those with  comorbidities) to consult doctors, mortality may be > 50% (as eg in KSA,  Jordan, Qatar, UK) – likely because they have poorly controlled diabetes, HIV, heart/lung/kidney disease;  or very low vit D3 levels and very low intake of vit C, zinc etc. 4. So far survivors of MERS  apparently do not stay carriers of the virus. These observations will be simple to affirm/ refute by storing, or immediately testing, all carriers’ and cases’ blood  for 25OH vit D3 (albeit expensive)  as well as the other obvious markers  . But it is harmless and virtually cost-free to treat all such people anyway with vigorous vits D3, C and zinc against all latent/patent  diseases. Parallel experience with seasonal flu/ common colds  is that while the URTI  may have been protracted till the patients consult, virtually all cases quickly resolve with vigorous supplements (vits C, D3, iodine, multivite,  appropriate iron, and appropriate decongestants/ “vix” steaming. And of course it is simple and appropriate to deep-sniff pure vit C + D3 powder- as easy as using a nasal sprayer. .                                                                                                                         27 May 2014  Jordan reports  a  fresh (10th) case;      KSA  now 562 cases -no new cases, but one  more death;   national  school exams start there irrespective.. so global total now may be 650..now   2 in Iran. – – the 21st country?. Its not to say that >650 people have caught the illness,  since apart from 30% who died of MERS , at least 20% were well, found only on viral swabs of contacts, ie by definition did not have the MERSyndrome that has killed 30%.. The  global  authorities have not revealed how many of the balance of 50% of those who screened positive actually developed any flu-like symptoms, as opposed to those who survived pneumonia & renal failure. Vigilance is necessary everywhere since both seasonal (H1N1) flu is spreading in the southern hemisphere, and MERS from Arabia with the recent peak there, and business, social and umrah travelers pouring through the Middle East  hubs- especially to and from the worldwide Muslim diaspora , and trade hubs, . . “If you get sick within 14 days of being in the Arabian Peninsula, call a doctor and tell the doctor where you traveled.” said an NBC report earlier this month. 26 May 2041 Our  first ‘ground zero’ MERS suspect returnee from Riyadh  today screened in Cape Town?:  after a weekend with  my own flu attending a 3day medical congress here, and bad family news last night, I was caught flatfooted this morning at a  walk-in local family practice clinic full of people with sudden flu/gastro gripes: the first lady  in (robust, no chronic illness)   with usual sudden  overnight flu   had after two weeks visiting her family in KSA, jetted back from there   just two weeks ago, having sat  behind a man coughing and spluttering.               Before starting highdose  supplements etc, she was  deep nasopharyngeal swabbed for flu and MERS  exam  by our South African National Institute for Communicable  Disease.  Then we will,  if she/her family prove positive,  contact the airline to start tracing all passengers and contacts here. She is hardly in the  risk category that has rocked the KSA. We dont know yet about her flight fellows..

25 May 2014:  HOPEFULLY THE MERS SURGE IN KSA IS OVER?      latest  cumulative Saudi reports are of  ~558 MERS cases in KSA,   179 deaths ie ~7 new cases detected a day (none elsewhere) . Thus in the 3 weeks since 3 May, unverified reports mainly from middle east websites  are of about 101 new cases ie about 5 new cases a day, and 42 deaths in KSA   ie 2/day- ~40% mortality. The rate of new cases presenting and being detected is down, but with the incubation time-lag (5 to 14 days till illness if any),  assuming that all sick citizens are  promptly tested, the mortality rate will fall next week from its peak a week ago.  Tightening protective measures in the KSA  and no doubt  in all global air-hubs outside KSA are hopefully working- there has apparently not been another reported cases outside KSA the past week. 96% of all cases detected have been in KSA & UAE, with 90% of deaths from MERS being  in detected cases there. The lack of new cases reported elsewhere suggests that the global figures are now about 641 cases and 208 deaths ie about 32% mortality. .

22 May 2014 update:    in KSA   544 cases, 176 deaths  ie  so far 18 cases/million, 32% mortality;    UAE 7/million;    worldwide 661 cases,  207 deaths  ie 32% globally. But excluding KSA and UAE, the occurrence of MERS  in the rest of the world – including most of the >billion Muslims-  has been 50 cases ie <1 / 100million; and all of these cases have apparently  been direct human returnees from the middle  east, or their immediate contacts.  Has one non-Muslim died or been seriously ill from the virus? This information is not available on the internet. But there is No pandemic in sight.  At least, as Australian observer  Ian Mackay points out, the trend in new cases in KSA is downwards the past month. The common denominator in KSA appears to be  that especially city Muslim women there must be virtually totally  covered when outdoors in public view.. But as noted earlier in this column, repeated university studies there by their own specialists have shown that their people are especially vulnerable to vitamins D and C deficiency, so easily correctable , a testable hypothesis at trivial cost? This perhaps easily controllable plague  is surely an unintended consequence for  one of the most highly learned and religiously devout peoples in the world? Is the  epidemic growing solely  in the KSA because by strict custom, Saudi Arabian residents (and their pilgrim   visitors-who also are likely  ultraobservant)   have  to  cover up maximally, Dress to Kill? In the rest of the Arabian peninsula the MERS incidence rate is only a fraction? although the deathrate is similar.

19 May 2014 update:  KSA toll now  537 cases / 173 deaths  ie 31% mortality. The total there was inflated by 19 patients in the Jeddah  dialysis unit contracting MERS some time recently. It remains to be disclosed  how many of these cases were diabetic, were on vigorous vits C/D supplements, and died? The global figures are now 620 cases tested positive and 202 deaths.

17 May  2014 including a 3rd case (by direct contagion from a newly arrived traveler) in USA, there are  now  about 650 MERS cases reported  worldwide, 200 deaths ie 32%  fatalities;   14 new cases daily globally  the past 3 days;   KSA  529  cases   168 deaths (ie 11 new cases  a day; and 16  deaths the past 3 days). But 96% of all cases worldwide  to date  presented in the Arabian peninsula’s  80 million Arab population, and apparently   all 27 outside cases were exports from KSA or their immediate contacts. .. The Wiki entry  Tourism in KSA  states plainly :  “In December 2013, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to begin issuing tourist visas for the first time in its history.  Restrictions and security : Visas are only issued for business, relatives of Saudis, transit to a third country, and Muslim pilgrims; general tourism is not allowed.”   So effectively  in KSA cities  there are in public  only heavily-garbed  Muslims.  Apparently nownon-muslim tourists can visit the KSA in a group organized by an accredited agency”, obviously provided they conform to local religious norms. But “A limited tourist visa programme was cancelled in March 2014.[5]       Saudi Arabia does not currently issue a visa for tourist travel. Hence apparently the KSA population especially in the cities is  overwhelmingly  Muslims conforming to orthodox Wahhabi  Sunni outdoor   attire- although there are apparently  some 1 million christians (ie 1:30 of the population -presumably mostly professional/technician experts- in the big cities) in the KSA. Apparently there are over a million camels in the KSA,  (apparently nearly 25million worldwide) with a lifespan akin to humans. “Camels  come from neighboring Middle Eastern countries, in part, but also from countries in eastern Africa, including such already beleaguered places as Sudan and Somalia, Nigeria, Tunisia, Ethiopia.     Just now online, not scheduled for formal publishing until this summer, is a brand-new CDC report  finding widespread evidence of MERS-CoV in African dromedary camels too.” With the dromedary  numbers (at least 1 per 30 Saudi  citizens), camels’ huge stamina ie resistance to disease, including apparently the MERS virus they carry,  their cherished role including as pets, meat, transport, racingstock,  and supply of fresh warm milk  in KSA society; and  the reported low human vitamin D (and perhaps C) levels in the heavily-garbed city  citizens,  no wonder camels  are an ongoing source  of the hitherto unknown MERS coronavirus illness for immunodepleted citizens in KSA? whereas the camels themselves apparently suffer no more than a mild cold. A  respiratory virus infection in a temperate climate is usually easily thrown off with symptomatic Rx, supplements and plenty of fluids; but on the other hand, in  middle east desert  temperatures and in all-over robes, hyperthermia and dehydration from MERS  may more obvious cause of pneumonia and  (pre)renal failure- especially in a population with high rate of sickle cell, diabetic, overweight, cardiovascular and hypertensive disease. Average temperature  are about 29-330C ie mean peaks of 40C; with humidity  17% in Riyadh & Medina, but much higher in Jeddah;  intermediate in Mecca..

And “Middle Eastern countries import tens of thousands of camels from eastern Africa annually. Many Saudi camels are imported. Scientists don’t yet know where the MERS virus originated or how camels got it, but it has been found in African countries and as far away as Spain’s Canary Islands, where a tiny population of camels lives for the past 400 years .        ” Camels in the kingdom are like dairy cows, beef cows, racehorses, pulling horses, beloved Labradors, and living daily reminders of holy scripture, all in one. (Camels appear, honorably, in the Quran.)” As the latest report from Pulitzer Centre Prof Cynthia Gorney’s Nat Geographic account of MERS ends, “Fresh warm camels milk straight from the udder is “Very heavy, very sweet, very therapeutic” Ameer said, after I stopped shouting at him over the phone.  If I were still in Saudi Arabia at this moment, I told him, I would be smacking him upside the head.”  What likely gave Ameer his claimed  immunity? that he had been years in USA?, and like Arabian desert camel-keepers probably  lightly clothed and much in the sun- thus with good vitamin D levels?

A new report today from WHO chillingly details a party of at least 9  Umrah pilgrims since April 2014 who  from Jeddah visited Mecca and Medina  and then back via Jeddah to Amsterdam, Greece and USA with developing MERS – from the Jeddah sub-clade which has been identified in at least 30 cases there.. These linkages do not explain why the MERS outbreak has mushroomed solely in KSA residents – not in Muslim communities outside Arabia into which travelers flying home via Jeddah  have imported the virus. The co-factor may be that, having inhaled/ingested  the virus from human carriers in the KSA, these foreign travelers, often with co-morbidities, were also more vulnerable to the MERS virus because of their adherence to the same  all-over dress orthodoxy, and dietary vitamins D & C and perhaps zinc depletion  (with or without sickle cell trait) as has been reported prevalent in the KSA; and detailed with references below. A study is awaited of comparative skin shade,  diet and skin sunshine exposure (ie degree of conformance to strict Sharia covering) between Saudi Arabians of longterm Arab descent, and their relatives and  similarly conforming co-religionists in the distant diaspora Muslim overseas communities  that send Umrah and Hajj  pilgrims through Jeddah to Mecca and the other shrines. A current  wiki-islam website stresses the serious health hazards (both skeletal- rickets and osteoporosis – and across all system diseases including immune-infection- protection) of full-cover Islamic ie hijab dress through sunlight vitamin D deficiency, unless vigorous vitamin D supplement is taken.  It is no surprise that this is as much of a danger for hijab Muslims  in high-sunshine desert latitudes as in bleak low-sunshine cities far north.. This might explain why the latest WHO population statistics (perhaps 2011 ie before the MERS outbreak) show that – despite being perhaps  the richest  per-capita nation (from oil reserves)  in the world,- the KSA has expected survival age 5 years below that of UK, especially from combined (hypertension-diabetes-coronary heart- kidney ) disease rate of 375 in KSA vs eg 80 in UK. But even then, a different WHO website showed flu and pneumonia deathrate (before the MERS outbreak)  37 in hot, dry KSA ie 50% higher vs 23.7 in UK. and in about 2011, KSA had a mean population age of 20 years, with annual (agri-and seafood)  imports  ie dependence of US$17billion, due to its desert-limited agripotential; with predicted rapidly increasing urbanization .  It will cost pennies, and a few weeks’ followup of supplement dispensing to KSA citydwellers, (and incoming pilgrims before they leave their diaspora homes for the KSA),  of vigorous dose vitamins D3 +  C and a multisupplement including the other vitamins , magnesium, zinc,  iodine; and  fish oil and virgin coconut oil (ie a blanket antioxidant, antiinfection, antihypertensive  insulin-sensitizing umbrella supplement)  to confirm if the emerging epidemic of  MERS (let alone hypertension-heart-diabetes-kidney  disease)  in KSA  is significantly slowed, as  common infective and degenerative diseases  are here  in Cape Town, by such supplements. This simple prospective clinical monitoring of those receiving or not receiving  the swine flu vaccine in 2009 was universally recommended, but Authorities refused to enforce such simple monitoring, so there is  no clinical  evidence that the swine flu vaccine significantly reduced morbidity from the outbreak, which was globally statistically trivial except in the Mexican source outbreak. Similarly, there is no evidence that the spread of MERS-CoV  in KSA is epidemic considering that even in the four most densely populated cities – in the three abutting  midwest  provinces  – containing almost half the national population,  – the detected spread of MERS illness is still so low (except in the incubator hospitals). Even though camels are so widespread. it is intuitive that rural/desert citizens may take  both more fresh  (desert)  crops (ie vit C) and more  vit D- from both camel milk  and more sun exposure from  outdoor work with more skin exposure in such labourers. Some  pictures of camel attendants apparently in the KSA  on the internet  show bareheaded men in vests.  16 May 2014   the latest  KSA  stats reported are 515 cases, 160 deaths ie 30% mortality. Globally 621, deaths 189 14 May 2014  now ~592 cases reported in 20 countries – the latest in the Netherlands, and a 3rd case in USA;  with ~31% mortality (KSA 495 cases, 152 deaths ie 31%; with 20% asymptomatic). 12 May 2014:  USA reports a 2nd case arrives there. a 5th death with MERS has been reported in Jordan.  Saudi Arabia reports 8 new cases since yesterday, and 2 more deaths.   But  as expected, in the KSA eye of the storm , it appears that only contacts of  patients are being screened- at least 20% of patients who screen positive for the virus have remained well. So the morbidity and mortality% are in fact very skewed, they are apparently not screening the local population for carriers. The ~28% death rate refers only to deaths in the cohort that were afflicted  with MERS and their contacts.

11 May 2014  A new Reuters report today highlights the widespread intimate contact with camels in KSA. “Does the KSA want to control the uncontrollable?                                So far, the reported cases have all originated in Saudi Arabia or in the southeastern part of the Empty Quarter, in the UAE. There are no reports of those outside Saudi Arabia having transmitted the disease to others. the past week has seen another ~116cases  ~15 cases a day- reported in the Middle East, and another 34 deaths  there ie the total has reached ~578 cases (483 in KSA- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) and ~163 deaths (142 in KSA). So  the death rate has fallen  to  <28% overall.  Lebanon and USA  become the 18th/19th countries to report a case of  a returning traveler.  But virtually all  identified cases originated in the KSA neighbourhood. The latest figures show that MERS originated and breeds exclusively in the Middle East- (cases per million ppm the past 2 years) in 16 ppm in KSA(483 cases total), 6ppm in UAE (53 total),    3.5 ppm in Qatar(7  total)  and  1ppm or less  in Jordan (9 total- the first reported cases, in April 2012)) or elsewhere. Apart from the frequency of camels, and the high prevalence of deficiency of vitamin D and possibly vitamin C reported below, ethnic culture may play a major role:  In KSA, Qatar and UAE the great majority of citizens are Wahhabi Sunni muslims. By contrast, Yemen is only 65% Sunni, but  Oman is distinctly different Sharia culture. Iraq and Iran are predominantly Shia culture.


Jordan on the other hand is a unique  Hashemite culture although also  70% Sunni;  so contrary to the Wahhabi countries,  “ Jordan is one of the most liberal countries in the Middle East, with a secular government“. So the increasing prevalence of MERS in the Wahhabi Arabian peninsula peoples relates perhaps  to the likely cluster of predisposing factors:   well-covered male and especially female orthodox attire, if not also higher prevalence of sickle cell trait, and diet,  which is associated with deficiency of vits D, C, A and E as referenced below. Feminist Muslim websites may correctly argue that Hijab does not cause vitamin D deficiency;  but it likely contributes significantly to it’s spread via lowered vitamin D production in skin – with orthodox Muslim women arguing that such women can arrange private sunlight skin exposure. This trend to vitamin D deficiency from low oral   and sunlight-mediated  vitamin D is incidentally mirrored in  new studies:. :                                                            from  USA – The Vitamin D status of Prison Inmates- which confirmed that, on a ‘sufficient’  diet including vitamin D intake,  the higher the security isolation of inmates (and therefore least sun-exposed), the lower the vitamin D status- especially in the darkest-skinned inmates; from Israel   Effect of different dress style on vitamin D level in healthy young Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox students in Israel; and in southern Italian nuns.


So vit D deficiency in MERS  may be like  in AIDS:  Vitamin D Deficiency in HIV: A Shadow on Long-Term Management)? (2014, London UK).  But vigorous vitamin D charge – by sunshine and especially vit D3 supplement- as an immune and anabolic booster is one of the safest and cheapest preventions of all disease that there is. With the Ramadan Hajj to the KSA this year only 6 weeks  away, intended pilgrims need to top up their vitamin D3 levels and multivites vigorously now, to boost both their infection resistance and improve control of all major diseases they have;  and take plenty of vitamin C with them.  So should  their communities, contacts  here as pilgrims return from the Hajj. SUNSHINE AND ORANGES: ANTIBIOTICs VITAMINS C AND  D like vitamin CVitamin D is hardly a new anti-infective agent as an Israeli study (Borella ea 2014) now confirms, since sunshine sanatoria were  the only effective treatment of tuberculosis in the pre-antibiotic era even after WW2; and ” An association has been established between low levels of vitamin D and upper respiratory and enteric infections, pneumonia, otitis media, Clostridium infections, vaginosis, urinary tract infections, sepsis, influenza, dengue, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and HIV infections“. Especially in this post-antibiotic age of rampant antibiotic resistance. Sunshine and Oranges - Empty Cradles-  is  ironically,  the account of Britain’s infamous ruthless  export- banishment to the Colonies -from the early to post WW2  20th C   of thousands of surplus children of poor or orphaned families. Shades of the forced transport of ‘felons’ to Devil’s Island and the British outposts of previous centuries.  Usually clad in scanty rags, in Australia  they certainly   had plenty of sunshine ie vitamin D , and  the abundant local oranges (vitamin C);  but like their surviving mothers, much grief and poverty – while from lack of these same nutrients, their kith and kin back in UK  were ailing with infections and rickets . .

3  May 2014  four months later:  MERS RESURGENCE: NOT A PANDEMIC BUT A DEFICIENCY SYNDROME? more precautions needed:  With the recent flareup of MERS Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome in the Gulf States, the number of reported cases since New year has more than doubled to 457 ie to >24 cases a week there, but still only in residents/ travelers from/through the Middle East hub, and their contacts;   in 17 countries including Europe, Egypt, Malaysia,  Philippines and now a traveler from Riyadh to USA.  The death toll has reached 133/457    ie the death rate  has  fallen steeply   from 42% last December to 29% overall, understandably as more cases are detected by screening in the source, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia KSA.   Wiki   and Reuters seem to give  the most update  (if not WHO-confirmed) stats. So the evidence so far is that, while camels are endemic carriers there,  most  recent sick cases have apparently been been traceable  human to human transmission – apparently all among Muslims, and in the malnourished or chronically ill older, and  health workers as in the case just reported in USA.      So there is no apparent spread by other vectors eg bird and farmyard swine as in the case of influenza. Since the reports available indicate that the MERS virus is dangerous only in those already malnourished or with serious other systemic disease, it is like flu-  pretty harmless in the well adequately nourished and housed. While frequent flyers are generally well off and well nourished, the same cannot be said for those in virtual ghetto  slavery all over the world, eg migrant labourers  working on contract  in the Gulf States, who have apparently been among the latest victims . So as with the overblown Swine Flu non-pandemic of 2009, there is no good evidence to label MERS  a deadly epidemic, it in fact seems to have low cross-infectivity compared to say influenza which spreads like wildfire- but with no more morbidity (except in Muslims?) than the common cold corona viruses.


WHY IS MERS  LIMITED OVERWHELMINGLY TO AND SPREADING ONLY IN THE KSA and UAE?  is it a unique genetic trait of Saudis?  or is it micromalnutrition unique to this  ultra-orthodox Muslim nation with unique almost total skin coverup outdoors? why was there no outbreak of MERS in the millions of pilgrims who did the Hadj to the KSA last year?   the KSA is 100% muslim, whereas the UAE only 76%, with far more foreigners working and living there. It is common cause that peoples who keep well covered during daylight hours – as ultraobservant Muslim (and ultra-orthodox Jewish)  women and  men do, have much lower vitamin D levels. Those on restricted diets are also more prone to malnutrition including vit D deficiency, especially if low in dairy products. Common sense perhaps explains  why Saudis – in the heart of Islam (Mecca, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tobuk) have low vitamin D and likely also low vitamin C and zinc levels, and thus more infections. Moderate to severe vitamin D deficiency was reported prevalent  last year in Saudis by Al-Daghri,  Sabico  ea  from King Saud University Riyadh- where Hasanato in 2006 reported low vitamins A, C and E and zinc levels in severe sickle cell disease. El-Hazmi ea  from the Saudi College of Medicine also in 2011 reported that Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have the highest prevalence of sickle cell genes in the Middle East,  at up to 18%. Bahrain has just opened a sickle cell hospital, but Bahrain has the tiniest population (1.3million) of the Gulf States although the highest population density, compared to the 38million of the KSA plus the UAE which have had over 90% of MERS cases. Most if not all the camels in Bahrain are in a zoo; whereas in the KSA camels are a favourite if not sacred possession and listed first as the  domestic animal. So the absence of MERS in Bahrain is unsurprising.

The UAE on the other hand also has many camels as entertainment if not also for travel – with 5000 camels entered in a beauty contest there alone.. So, despite long days ie much sunshine exposure in Arabia, low  fresh water availability likely reduces hygiene  (washing and oral hydration) capacity for the masses let alone camels.  And the well-covered dress code, and low availability of private sun-exposed balconies and courtyards  (unlike apparently more liberal Muslim countries) mean that the Saudi masses do not have the opportunity to get much-needed sun exposure to even the face, neck and limbs let alone the torso.

        Hence Saudis have as obvious  major risk factors for MERS  -not just the teeming MERS reservoir in their valued  camels (also a staple   milk supply), but more importantly endemic deficiency of vitamins C, D (and perhaps E, zinc) and water compared to relatively less clothed populations in other  hot but also better water-supplied  countries that also do not carry much sickle cell disease.

Camel meat is apparently no longer a staple in the KSA where staples now include Bread, hummus, rice, and  Tabbouleh- a “salad” generally made of parsley, bulgur, tomatoes, garlic, and lemon; Kapsa: the national dish is chicken and rice with vegetables; and Kebab:  a base of roasted lamb or chicken and vegetables in pita bread. There seems  little vitamin D in that varied diet, especially not pita bread or rice.

      The only good unfortified and unprocessed food sources of vitamin D are apparently oily fish,  liver, mushrooms, and (if fortified),  egg yolk and dairy products ; or else vitamin D3 supplements. ..

Finally, it is common cause from published studies and our local experience that infections eg HI, TB,  influenza,  herpes  and the common (Corona virus) cold are easily treated and prevented by vigorous safe intake of vits C & D combined with the other multivites, zinc, iodine, iron and selenium. In advanced infection cases of eg HIV and TB (in trials  from Central Africa and Canada), combining even modest doses of just 2 or 3 of these supplements with appropriate antivirals and antibiotics reduced dreadful morbidity and mortality by two-thirds. NATURAL PREVENTION/TREATMENT: with the theoretical double peril of influenza and MERS-   (ie as with the looming  Influenza A gastro-/respiratory season in the southern hemisphere),  with no proven  vaccines or antivirals reported or likely, those in contact with Middle East travelers- or any infection eg flu  outbreak- are again reminded to boost their immunity  and global health with safe effective lowcost NUTRITIONAL ANTIINFECTIVE supplements: 1.VITAMIN D3 CHOLECALCIFEROL 2500-4000iu/kg/month  (not the weak  vit D2 ergocalciferol  falsely labelled  “Strong” Calciferol tabs) most simply taken as a few scoops ie 50 000 to 250 000iu of vit D3 powder/MONTH at all ages (AND IDEALLY target BLOOD- LEVEL 80-100ng/ml depending on overall illhealth state. IT IS VIT D3 THAT IS STRONG CALCIFEROL, NOT VIT D2, since experts report that vit D3 is apparently four times more potent than D2. 2. MULTIVITES with zinc selenium and iodine (and iron for likely deficient eg kids, young women), but  especially 3.  buffered VITAMIN C ASCORBATE  at least 3gm/d orally ( if not with bad infection symptoms – 10 or >30gms / day if not ivi)  at trivial cost as powder;  to tolerance; 4. with eg  ecchinacea, melatonin, garlic, colloidal silver, sutherlandia and whatever other antiviral available locally. Since flu and colds disrupt both sleep and outdoor activity, nothing makes as much sense as co-supplementing both of the day and night hormones melatonin and vitamin D; as well as the other sunshine vitamin- ascorbic acid (solar-produced in abundance in  eg fruit) – to improve both sleep, rest and immunity. For small kids/infants the vitamins and minerals can simply be taken as powder in liquid ie in feeding bottle or a  glass. It is increasingly notorious how depleted modern breastfeeding mothers (on the industrial polluted fructose-sucrose-  aspartame PUFA-antibiotic-hormone-glyophos- GMO laden  food chain now prevalent)  and baby formulae  (unlike colostrum from pasture-fed eg New Zealand dairies) are in such lifesaving  immune and anabolic anticancer  boosters.


Ironically,  recently  Prof Zahid Naeem ea from the KSA Qassim University publicised in their university International Jnl of Health Science   Vitamin D Deficiency- An Ignored Epidemic in 2010  and 2012  , with prevalence there of up to 80% in the KSA despite the abundant sunshine, thus urging vitamin D supplementation. . But such simple prevention – of all disease but especially wished-for megaprofit  pandemics like flu and HIV-  is anathema to the multinational Big Pharma and their lobbyists in the global Disease Industry, which employs millions worldwide and generates trillions in income for government and corporates. Prevention does not pay. Simple prevention suits no-one working in the disease  and drug and hospital industry since it makes most health workers especially doctors and administrators and hospital  largely redundant. It seems that public health officials choose to go on ignoring the deficiency epidemic even in the KSA- unlike Dubai, there is no website of the KSA Govt promoting vitamin D supplementation.  The solution is too cheap – and embarrassingly simple.  An anonymous blogger details the numerous reasons for endemic vitamin D deficiency in especially the Gulf States.. at least the Dubai Govt publicises the deficiency, and supplementation. Is it irony, or an indictment of the prevailing world-wide largely male-dominated -subservient female culture,   that already back in 2001, there were strong warnings about Niqabs and Burqas as Impediments to Health? already in 2012, dairies in the UAE were fortifying milk with vitamin D; and in 2001 academics published a study showing the many reasons for prevalent vitamin D deficiency in the KSA. and Prof Mike Holick  in 2010 published an authoritative review  The Vitamin D Deficiency Pandemic: a Forgotten Hormone Important for Health urging vigorous vitamin D supplementation universally. As detailed elsewhere in this column last year,  the prophet of vitamin D and melatonin  the late Prof Walter Stumpf must be shaking his head repeatedly along with  the late Prof Linus Pauling, about the neglect of authorities  to promote and distribute vigorous supplements of vitamin C and D3 to the afflicted Arabian peoples let alone worldwide. But then we need to be reminded of the infamous Vitamin Murders, how Prof Sir Jack Drummond was mysteriously murdered with his family on holiday in France in 1952, when he and Linus Pauling were  the  leading vitamin discoverers and promoters  of the 20th century (as Walter Stumpf was of melatonin and vitamin D). The Big Pharma Disease Industry combined with the might of the FBI  and the FD  could never shut Pauling up;  but by whom and why the Drummonds were murdered remains unsolved, thus fertile conspiracy theory. Reading Drummond’s papers on the internet, one can understand why the burgeoning patent drug industry then as now hated natural lowcost unpatentable remedies, unbeatable natural safe  antiinfective agents like vits C and D and iodine – each almost universal panaceas. . .

This universal truth about industry suppressing  natural remedies  is the Semmelweis Paradox, that had the leading obstetrician of his day murdered in his prime by his jealous rivals.

27 Dec 2013  the outbreak not over:  9 new cases;   ie overall deathrate 42%, but past 2 weeks  4.5 cases a week just from the KSA..  :  Since April 2012, the European Centre reports  175 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 73 deaths, of acute respiratory disease caused by Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), have been reported by national health authorities.  27 December,  Saudi Arabia confirmed nine cases (five asymptomatic healthcare workers and four patients suffering from chronic disease, two of whom had died).  24 Dec 2013 the score now stands at 166  (163 at 16 Dec)  cases and 71 fatalities- 42% –   in 18  months since the first identified case in June 2012; ie per week – 2  new cases and 1 fatality .  No pandemic. No outbreak. Considering the duration of the awareness  of the new virus in humans- apparently from bats/camels/swine,  even after 18 months of millions of pilgrims visiting the Middle East, and far more foreign travelers flying through those hubs, and intensive surveillance on those routes east and west,   the morbidity and mortality have been negligible with only a handful of perhaps related deaths in frail patients. Whether as with seasonal avian  ie H1N1 flu from China to the West and south there will be a flareup of MERS-CoV cases  in the pending winter from now on  in the Middle East, remains to be seen..


12 November 2013   Considering that the Hajj has just ended with millions of pilgrims returning home,  and vast numbers of multinational passengers transit through the Middle East hubs, its reassuring  that (depending on which reports are duplicates and delayed) only 3 or 5  tested positive cases and 1 or 2  deaths have been reported the past week:    especially since only serious flu-like cases are likely to be tested- but more so in the affluent who can afford to fly.   So far no reports of MERS-CoV case are apparent in South Africa, although flu-like illness remains  common here. Perhaps more people are heeding warnings to take multivites plus zinc plus vigorous vits C and D. The ECDC    and  OSAP  and NowNews  and GlobalAlert report   As of  11 November 2013, there have been  at least 154 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS  CoV worldwide, including 65 deaths ie 42% in TESTED cases. All cases have either occurred in the Middle East or have had direct links to a primary case infected in the Middle East.        Saudi Arabia has reported  at least 125 symptomatic and asymptomatic cases including 53 deaths  Jordan two cases both of whom died   United Arab Emirates five cases, including one fatality Qatar five cases, including two deaths  and  Oman one case who has  just died.       Thirteen cases have been reported from outside the Middle East: inthe UK (4), France (2), Tunisia (3), Germany(2), Italy (1) and Spain (1). 31 Oct 2013 with the Hajj over, the latest score is 149 cases and 63 deaths ie 42%. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_10_31/en/index.html ie 5 new cases a week from the region, 30% deaths. http://gmggranger.wordpress.com/2013/10/29/quikstats-mers-cov-in-the-arabian-peninsula-nov-2013/ 17 Oct 2013 with the Hajj in full swing, the latest tally is apparently 139 cases and 60 deaths.  So thats only 1 case  reported a week the past 4 weeks, and no deaths in that time.  Promising news, although we continue to see bad viral-like  respiratory-gastro infections in adults locally with the volatile weather.


20 Sept 2013 with below a month to go to the Hajj, the latest Quickstats are 135 cases confirmed, and 60 deaths ie 44% mortality- all new cases and deaths apparently in  KSA and the Gulf States. Thus in the past 7 weeks,  41 new cases have been reported ie 6  a week, all in the Gulf  States; with unaltered  mortality  (44%) apparently restricted to the chronically frail. This as the drastically variable  Cape Town weather alternates sunshine joy and freezing wet  snow or hail, with high prevalence of both respiratory and gastroenteritis attacks, sometimes with protracted debilitating bronchitis; how much of this is local seasonal colds- coronavirus– or  flu, orMERS-CoV,  or  the explosive Norwalk virus, is speculative and academic. Basically So What since management is symptomatic, and vigilant prevention  crucially effective with hygiene, home rest and multivites but especially highdose vits D3 up to 10 000 (100iu/kg)  iu/day or weekly equivalent plus  buffered vit C up to tolerance >100mg/kg/day, zinc, selenium and for the malnourished, iron; perhaps safe plant  immune boosters like sutherlandia, garlic etc; and avoidance of smoking, sugar and the likes-  boozing and sweetened soft drinks (fructose, aspartame,sucralose).


11 August 2013  OUT OF AFRICA?  no new cases of MERS-CoV have been reported the past week; but while camels (in Oman) are now also suspect hosts/ transmitters in the M E,  there is some evidence that the MERS virus has the closest virus match yet found to bat CoV  in South Africa. As a precaution, with upgrading of shrines in Mecca, KSA is actively reducing  overcrowding by Hajj visitors by 20%, and warning the frail  and elderly not to go this year. With the prevalent bad winter respiratory and gastroenteritis  infections at least around densely populated and polluted Gauteng and  KZ-Natal,  and especially the floral mountain kingdom of greater Cape Town-   all are encouraged to take vigorous doses of vitamins D3 and Superenhanced vitamin C with a broad multimineral-multivite –  extra vits A, E, B &   coQ10;  the minerals zinc,  selenium, iodine, colloidal  silver, (and iron in the young commonly at risk of deficiency);  probiotics ;  rooibos or buchu or green honey and lemon tea,  sutherlandia;  licorice, St John’s wort, garlic,  echinacea, olive leaf  etc;   including sniffing vitamin C ; and  if snotty rhinitis/sinus/bronchitis symptoms,  steaming with eucalyptus etc.. And during acute attacks especially of respiratory and gastro attacks,  avoid sugar,  fat,  dairy and wheat intake.


2 August 2013  The Hajj to Mecca this year is  in the third week of October.  While over 15 million (of the world’s ~1.5billion) Muslims visit Mecca – Umrah- annually, some 3 million pilgrims worldwide make the seasonal Hajj visit trip, with pro rata from South Africa  only 2000 (of our ~2.5million) apparently the quota of pilgrims allowed this year   by Saudi Arabia . But increasing numbers of frequent flyers of all nationalities and races to and from South Africa – Europe fly via the Gulf States  Emirates airline, if not commuting to work and visit family there – including professional sports teams for tournaments… So this week’s flood of warning bulletins  on the Gulf State respiratory infection outbreak are cause for urgent caution and prevention, perhaps grim news for those who fly that ME route, and their families and close associates and neighbourhoods. The 49% deathrate reported in the now 94 cases- 3 more reported  1 August  from KSA- so far from the MERS-CoV Corona Virus MiddleEast Respiratory Syndrome outbreak is alarming, that has spread the past 10 months  from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia KSA  and  the Gulf States  to Tunisia, Europe – France, Germany, Italy-  and UK . It is now being recognized as distinct not just from the common cold coronavirus but also from the Chinese Severe Acute SARS-CoV virus outbreak since 2003, of which over 8000 cases have been recognized , but the latter virus having a fatality rate of only <10%; and the current violent but selflimited Norwalk virus  gastroenteritis (explosive vomiting and diarrhoea for 1 -3days;  (fatality rate <0.1%) raging in UK,  it recently is the commonest cause of foodborne infection in USA  .


No clinically effective vaccine or synthetic drug treatment has yet been found for these coronaviruses . The same lack of specific antiviral therapy applies against gastroenteritis viruses and influenza, but the mythical 2009 swine flu ‘pandemic’ was even milder (than some seasonal flu outbreaks) with a proven mortality rate far below 1% considering how rapidly far and widely it spread. The reservoir if any of MERS-CoV may  be cave bats, (and, ominously, perhaps swine – c/f the 2009 swine flu ‘pandemic’ that wasnt; shades of the deadly Nipah virus outbreak of 1999 – from bats to pigs to man).. But the fact that MERS-Co is spread human to human, and mainly men ,  has been attributed perhaps to women in strict sharia society being well veiled and thus shielded from inhaling (and transmitting) the air-born virus, never mind womens’ generally stronger immune systems and hygiene, self-care. So beware   all those in close contact with recent air-travelers through the ME states and surrounding subcontinent airports – never mind the S-E-Asia airhubs of Hong Kong and Singapore: it maybe  only a matter of weeks before cases occur on the other continents especially in city dwellers, public transport commuters, factory and office workers; and who knows, perhaps where bats and swine cohabit close to cities, as around South Africa.. .. Its cold comfort that the latest report  yesterday and today,  note that this stage is perhaps like SARS in 2002 and swine flu in 2009, the ‘bottom of the iceberg’, with only severe cases being admitted, tested, reported, in already chronically ill frail patients; especially diabetics and renal failure – to which older Muslims are particularly prone; while the virus spreads silently, mildly if not harmlessly  in the well majority, as in two young well  women health workers in contact with a chronically ill elderly female case in Riyadh, KSA … ANTI-INFECTIVE PROTECTANTS and advice are available from the Natural Remedies Centre, 15 Grove Bldg, Grove Ave, Claremont, Cape Town ph 002721-6831465 or -6717415: Fortunately  all Health Shops  are well stocked with the many  almost 100% protectants against serious infections including fungi bacteria and viruses – colds (ie corona-) and flu’-virus (let alone against all others) afforded by the basket of locally available (although mostly imported)  natural lowcost evidence-based  nutritionals – supplements  the past decades: safe  hefty combinations of a number of immune-boosting  vitamins, minerals and foods, herbs. This septuagenarian author has, touch wood, on this combination- increased at occasional  times of suspected colds-fever- , despite great stress, and flu ‘pandemics’, and avoiding vaccinations,     not had a bad infection lasting a day in the past 5 years despite working in the highest risk  poor townships and acute hospital clinics with rampant HIV – multiresistant TB cases .



WOMAN’S MONTH  DISCOUNT : for appointments for consultations,   or non-xray procedures by registered practitioners :  Sure Touch breast prescreening on  Saturday mornings by Sister Zeneath Ismail – cash R550 (then R350 if followup scan desired within 3 months);   – bone density  cash R400 -tariff item 3612-  anytime; but 20% discount in this Woman’s health month;

or any health problems: heart- ECG,  fatigue, HRT, sexual health, hypertension, depression, memory/dementia, lung & lungfunction, anaemia-haematology; kidney/bladder/pelvic, hormone-endocrine, depression, osteoporosis, sleep, diabetes, thyroid, adrenal; cramp; skin,  infection including STDs & HIV/AIDs, stroke, epilepsy-neurology, dizziness, heartburn/digestive/liver,  neuropathy,  sexual health, menopause, HRT, or immune problems, or arthritis/backache/pain/headache relief;

contact Evelyn/ Reyhana / Val at  the Natural Medicine Clinic, 1st Floor no 15, Grove Medical Bldg, opp ABSA (ABSA Parkade parking)  near Warwick/Cavendish  Square Claremont Cape Town RSA, ph +27216831465 or a/h +2783 4385248 or reyhanadaya@yahoo.com  .

For the disabled – by arrangement  drive  up the ramp  to the Clinic door on the Grove Bldg 1st floor  parking deck. Unlike radiologists’ reports (which describe only  the imaging finding), the rates quoted include relevant breast or bone consultation and management planning  by a specialist physician.

Under CMS Council for Med Schemes Rule 10(6), open Medical schemes eg hospital plans  have to pay from their own funds (not members’ savings) for appropriate outpatient consultation (tariff item 0191) for  PMBs ie major conditions eg  cancer, menopause (ICD code N95.9),  serious heart, lung, other disease., etc. Breast and osteoporosis concerns are generally part of menopause consultations N85.9  (if not already eg breast cancer code C50) and thus are often billable  med scheme benefits. On patients’ requests, appropriate invoice can be prepared and submitted to your scheme for refund of your due benefits. Many schemes falsely deny due benefits until reported to their regulator  CMS. For medical plans where the billable tariff benefit rate is higher than the breast screening fee paid, the med plan rate 0191  will be charged eg R705 by the contracted  specialist,  and refundable by Discovery to the member.



neil.burman@gmail.com  Cape Town.                   read this  in concert with:                       combatting rising-occurrence-of-breast-cancer-in-younger-women;  and
11 August 2014  The current SA Menopause Society newsletter says:

Benefits of mammography

“the benefits of screening mammography are modest at best” (Elmore & Harris BMJ 2014;348:g3824). This is the conclusion after the latest research to come out of Norway where the introduction of screening has been gradually introduced over the last 2 decades (Weedon-Fekjaer et al BMJ 2014;348:g3701).

The Norwegian authorities invited women between 50 and 70 years old to attend for screening every second year and looked at before and after death rates from breast cancer. They found RELATIVE risk reduction of 28% in those invited compared with those not invited to be screened. Without knowing the ACTUAL risk reduction or the harms of screening this sounds like a “good deal”. However it is an observational study not a randomised trial and therefore susceptible to various biases.

For women to make up their own minds about screening, actual figures of benefits and harms need to be given because without accuracy perceived dangers and benefits are very far from reality. For example in the US or UK asking women about their estimates of breast cancer deaths – taking 1000 women aged 50 and following them for 20 years – gave the following results:

Of 1000, number
alive after 20 years
Deaths from
breast cancer
Deaths from
other causes
Women’s estimates
without screening
801 160 39
with screening 881 80 39
In reality
without screening
956 5 39
with screening 956-7 4 39-40

Women believe that breast cancer is a far greater threat than it really is. They also believe that screening halves such risk.

If actual death reductions from breast cancer are taken into account, screening benefits are modest at best and if all cause deaths are taken into account the benefits all but disappear.

20 July 2014 Two new papers from Scandinavia highlight the harms of screening mammography.:
APMIS. 2014 May 26. doi: 10.1111/apm.12278.
Overdiagnosis: How cancer screening can turn indolent pathology into illness.    Brodersen J1, Schwartz LM, Woloshin S. The shift from illness to disease has had a profound impact on modern medicine – particularly in the realm of cancer screening. In screening, it is not patients with illness who seek help from the healthcare system; it is asymptomatic healthy individuals who are invited into the healthcare system to be examined for pathology. The underlying assumption of screening is that abnormalities and pathology always progress. If this were true, it would always make sense to look for disease even when people feel well. The million (or more accurately multi-billion) dollar question is whether the fundamental assumption that disease invariably leads to illness is valid. This is the question that the present paper will try to explore and answer.
The current Wiki article on Cancer Screening    firmly denies benefit for screening for silent prostate cancer;  and for xray screening mammography it  firmly questions  the benefit in lives saved versus the harms of screening.  The balance for screening mammogram is summed up by Wiki : “The phenomenon of finding pre-invasive malignancy or nonmalignant benign disease is commonplace in all forms of cancer screening, including pap smears for cervical cancer, fecal occult blood testing for colon cancer, and prostate-specific antigen testing for prostate cancer. All of these tests have the potential to detect asymptomatic cancers, and all of them have a high rate of false positives and lead to invasive procedures that are unlikely to benefit the patient.”
                Reality  remains that, in average  lean  well adults ie without obvious risks , the only screening justified is regular noninvasive SELF- EXAMINATION of breast, skin, testes, electronic bloodpressure; and professional optometric, dental,  skin and bloodpressure screening and, if suspicious, urine multistix exam.  By contrast, regular xray (chest or  mammogram- cumulative radiation risk) and pelvic  internal exams are highly invasive, thus indicated only for symptomatic or familial-risk cases. .
PEER (perverse) PRESSURE, Beliefs, perceptions, indoctrination –  by peer bodies, Corporates like Hospitals and Big Pharma, Regulators,  Accredition Bodies and dangled incentives – which obviously have commercial group vested self-interests  –  die hard:                                     Prev Med. 2014 Jul 16.Miller JW1Goff BA ea .  CDC & Washington State University, USA,   studied Physicians’ Beliefs about Effectiveness of Cancer Screening Tests: National Survey of Family Physicians, General Internists, and Obstetrician-Gynecologists(excluding breast radiologists, pathologists,  and oncologist/surgeons). RESULTS: of   1574 respondents-   62% response rate- the majority agreed with the effectiveness of: mammography aged 50-69 years, Pap tests  aged 21-65 years, and colonoscopy for aged ≥50 years.  Physicians typically listed their respective specialty organizations as a top influence for screening  recommendations.  CONCLUSIONS: There were several substantial inconsistencies between physician beliefs in the effectiveness of cancer screening tests and the actual evidence of these tests’ effectiveness which can lead both to underuse and overuse of cancer screening tests.
    This outcome obviously damns professional bodies in respect at least of the evidence discouraging  screening mammography of well breasts.
   Its as Soren Kierkegaard wrote 150 years ago about religious conviction- the difficulty of following ethical theistic belief against the majority tide of convenience and venality;
  and Steven Jay Gould’s Non-Overlapping Magisteria of Science and Religion- for some (but not all), the difficulty of reconciling apparent scientific medical evidence (is it ever immutable? ) with belief, dogma- whether from mythical (is it always?)  religious belief, or simply vested interest.
       As we were taught 50 years ago, if new medical discoveries stand the test of time – they often dont-  it takes a generation for  the majority to accept, apply them. Almost two generations of women have now been martyred by repetitive screening xray mammography. Must it take yet another generation before such barbaric screening is abandoned? As Winwood Reade  and AC Grayling philosophized, countless millions have suffered genocide, holocaust in the post-Greko-Roman “enlightened”  two  millennia for vested interests in the guise of religious let alone medical dogma  .
14 July 2014:  BASTILLE DAY CLARION CALL FOR TRUTH TO PROTECT WOMEN:      Screening mammography & Bambi  This column reported these issues a few months ago (see Dr Gerd Gigerenzer PhD  below in May, and April 16, 2014  from the Swiss Medical Board: Abolishing Mammography Screening Programs? ), but they are worth repeating from Groote Schuur Hospital.  A professor of Obstets and Gyne there writes in the current South African Menopause Matters  news email (“an  editorial opinion that does not necessarily represent the views of  SAMS”) :
(the answer to his question: Whatever happened to Evidence-Based medicine? is quite simple: if  it doesnt pay, then evade, deny and mock the evidence, or better, shoot the messenger who dares blow the whistle on  inconvenient truth. )

The Professor writes: “Screening mammography is an emotive subject. Correctly so, because if it did clearly have more benefits than harms then it should be advocated, promoted and sold as an intervention in every woman’s interest.

      Regrettably screening mammography does not clearly have more benefits than harms and given that it is an unpleasant and costly process it should not be promoted. Both the protagonists and the antagonists claim ample facts supporting their arguments while finding fault with the others’ data. One of the latest trial outcomes from Canada (Miller et al BMJ 2014;348:g366) reports on a large group of women (nearly 90 000) who were randomised to mammography annually for 5 years or annual physical breast examination. This took place in the 1980s and the women were in their 50s and were followed up for 25 years.

Diagnoses of breast cancer and deaths from the disease were collected from national databases, as were all-cause mortality figures. The researchers showed that during the 5 years of mammography (or not) more women were diagnosed with breast cancer in the mammography arm (and treated) but the deaths were not significantly different in the two groups. Similarly over the entire study period there were more cancers diagnosed in the mammography arm but the number of deaths were similar, with the conclusion that mammography was not superior to annual examinations and resulted in overdiagnoses.

This is essentially a negative outcome if “deaths avoided” or “lives saved” are taken as the end points. Maybe modern screening techniques work better but also maybe better treatments have reduced mortality rates. The most recent Cochrane Review suggests that if 1000 women aged 50 were screened for 10 years then 4 women would die from breast cancer. Without screening 5 would die.

If the group’s deaths from any cancer are counted then the results are 21 per 1000 with or without mammography. So does mammography screening save lives? The supposed benefit?

If the harms are tallied for the same 1000 women then 100 in the mammography arm would have a false positive-evaluation and 5 would have an unnecessary partial or complete breast removal (Gøtzche et al Cochrane Reviews 2013;6:CD001877). The financial and convenience costs are not commented on.

Yet screening mammography is treated like a religion. Any suggestion to curtail its promotion is seen as “unfair to women” or not doing “the right thing”. A bit like Bambi bashing. How can something so obviously right be challenged?

Nowhere are the facts more disguised than in breast cancer screening pamphlets (Gigerenzer BMJ 2014;348:g2636). The data are presented without numbers ”Most doctors feel that early detection tests for breast cancer save thousands of lives each year” or as relative risk reduction with the difference between 4 and 5 deaths per 1000 being a “20% reduction in deaths”. A final fallacy of the leaflets is extrapolating ahead where 1 life saved over a decade means 2.5 lives over 25 years which is not supported by the data.

No wonder 98% of women in France, Germany and the Netherlands overestimate the benefit of screening by a factor of 10, 100 or more, or do not know. They get much of their information from leaflets – put out by people whose likelihoods depend on screening – which are blatantly misleading. Advertising of medicines is not allowed to make claims that cannot be backed up by evidence, so why can screening pamphlets?

These semi-facts promote beliefs that screening prevents or reduces the risk of breast cancer and saves many lives through the early detection of aggressive tumours. These beliefs are not valid according to an independent Swiss group reporting in a lead article in NEJM (Biller-Andorno & Jüni 2014;370:1965-7) which states that public health programmes that do not produce more benefits than harms are hard to justify ethically – like mammography screening.

Their report caused an uproar because it challenges a tightly held myth – like the existence of Bambi.    What has happened to evidence-based medicine?

Menopause Matters is a monthly review of matters menopausal that have recently appeared in the journals. It is produced for the South African Menopause Society by Athol Kent and the summaries concentrate on clinical issues although some underlying patho-physiology will be included to ensure a scientific basis for the work. It does not necessarily reflect the views of SAMS or its managementf
15 June 2014 this month:  SMALL BENEFITS, SUBSTANTIAL HARMS WITH MAMMOGRAPHY SCREENING  is a trenchant review by Prof Cornelia Baines breast clinician from Canada on why xray screening mammography does well breasts and women far more harm than good.                Prof Stephen  Duffy statistician at UCL argues the reverse.


already 30 years ago Seely and Horrobin in Diet and breast cancer: possible connection with sugar consumption hypothesized: younger and older women (possibly pre- and post-menopausal women) differ with respect to such correlations. In older women a strong correlation was found between breast cancer mortality and sugar consumption (correlation coefficient = 0.9).. In younger women the correlation with diet is weak. A possible connecting link between sugar consumption and breast cancer is insulin. This is an absolute requirement for the proliferation of normal mammary tissue and experimental mammary tumours may regress in its absence. Insulin secretion occurs in response to blood glucose level and could be excessive if the regulatory mechanism is overtaxed by large sugar intake. The same mechanism might account for the increased risk of mammary cancer in diabetics.
  A  major Nurses’ Health decades-long Study  review from Harvard shows no relationship between fat intake and breast cancer.
By contrast, studies from  Mexican  2004,  Canada 2005, Italy 2006 , and New York  2009 confirm direct association between sugar intake and breast cancer. . Only a study from Denmark 2005  shows no relationship.
Hence the HighFat LowCarbs (William Banting 1863) diet is now established by the rigorous scientific references of the past 150 years  assembled by science writer Gary Taubes in The Diet Delusion ,  and advised to all  for prevention and management of obesity and all other common major diseases including breast and all cancers.
      As investigative journalists write recently, like Taubes and rational scientists the past 50years,  the major cause of all common chronic degenerative disease including cancer and immunoincompetence is not fat but refined carbs – the root cause of the SACCHARINE DISEASES  that Cleave, Campbell, Burkitt reported occurring in pastoral tribes converting to the western commercialized diet of sugar, refined cereals and rice .                   They note that in the Mouse Cancer Study in cancer-prone mice, 2011,  which claimed that high (fat)cholesterol intake promotes breast cancer, the control mice  (not major carnivores but omnivores) were fed a balanced natural chow with 4.5% fat, 23% protein, and 50% carbohydrate, whereas the test mice were fed a totally synthetic chow meant to represent a western human  cholesterolemic  diet: 20% fat, 17% protein, and 48% carbohydrate. So in fact the high risk factor for cancer and all disease was not the higher fat intake (20%  as dairy fat) vs 4.5%- from fish meal and soy/cereals) but the 48% carbs (2/3  sucrose, 15% (malto)dextrins -which absorb as rapidly as glucose) intake and 19% casein (a major health problem)   in the test chow. They failed to include a control group on what is natural mouse diet ie free of refined carbs and milk :  RSPCA 2014:   Wild mice – opportunistic omnivores- will eat a wide variety of seeds, grains, and other plant material as well as invertebrates, small vertebrates and carrion”. Thus plenty of natural seed/grain fats and mixed protein and plant carbs,  zero sugar or refined carbs- ie the Banting diet. ..
A new 18year observational  followup  study from Sweden last year in 62000 people assessed total energy intake – carbohydrate  from median 61 to 39% , protein 11 to 19% , and  fat 27 to 42% . LCHP scores were positively related to intake of animal protein, but negatively related to plant protein. For carbohydrate and fat, associations were consistent in sucrose and whole grain and saturated and unsaturated fat, respectively. Across the range of macronutrients, there was no clear significant trend for particular cancers. This is not surprising as the intake of carbs range d from 40 to 60% and fat from 27 to 42%. Thus no cohort was on a highfat low carbs ketogenic diet as Banting, Noakes  et al find successful. . the lowest % carbs group at best had similar fat % intake ie there was no low-carbs cohort taking below 30% carbs..There is a vast difference in calorie intake  between their “optimal’  LCHP 42:40 fat:carbs ie 1:1  , versus the  true ketogenic HifatLowcarbs diet of eg 50:<30 fat:carbs ie >1.66:1.
       Allowing up to 20% protein in total energy intake, fat may need to  be  close to 50% energy and carbs below 30%, thus ensuring ketogenesis to shed excess fat and avoid depositing more glycogen and adiposity ; so eg for a 2000kcal/day  diet, thats  up to 100gms protein 400kcal mostly from flesh and nuts; carbs below 150gms 600kcal (in nuts and  rainbow vegs) , and fat up to 1000 kcal ie 110gms from cream (not milk), nuts, avo, eggs, butter, cheese and fatty flesh. .

It is no wonder the public is confused.

The truth of more than four decades worth of research is now very clear: the potential benefit of mammography screening is small and the harms are substantial at all ages, but especially so for women in their 40s.

The bottom line is that mammography screening, implemented to reduce breast cancer deaths due to earlier detection of breast cancer, has been eclipsed by therapy and increased awareness.

- See more at: http://umanitoba.ca/outreach/evidencenetwork/archives/4490#sthash.rf9YcMYp.dpuf

It is no wonder the public is confused.

The truth of more than four decades worth of research is now very clear: the potential benefit of mammography screening is small and the harms are substantial at all ages, but especially so for women in their 40s.

The bottom line is that mammography screening, implemented to reduce breast cancer deaths due to earlier detection of breast cancer, has been eclipsed by therapy and increased awareness.

- See more at: http://umanitoba.ca/outreach/evidencenetwork/archives/4490#sthash.rf9YcMYp.dp


VITAMIN C  each 100mg/day increment reduces allcause mortality by 27%, and breast cancer mortality by 22%:   a metaanalysis by the Karolinska- Harris ea   last month found 10 trials of vitamin C use and intake  in breast cancer, included 17,696 breast cancer cases, 2791 total deaths, and 1558 breast cancer-specific deaths. The summary RR (95% CI) for post-diagnosis vitamin C supplement use was 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.91) for total mortality and 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.99) for breast cancer-specific mortality. The summary RR for a 100mg per day increase in dietary vitamin C intake was 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.89) for total mortality and 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.94) for breast cancer-specific mortality- ie 25% lower mortality for every 100mg higher daily vit C intake..

20 years  ago Newmark from Sloan Kettering NY wrote :  High dietary fat increases mammary epithelial cell proliferation, particularly the “hormonally driven” hyperproliferation during breast growth and development in young animals. Increased dietary calcium (and probably vitamin D) lessens the increase of proliferation induced by high fat. These data, although limited, suggest that the maximum effect of diet (high fat increase, as well as calcium and vitamin D modulation) on eventual breast cancer may be during puberty, and adolescence, when the mammary gland is actively growing and developing. (3) An inverse epidemiological correlation exists between sunlight availability as a source of vitamin D and the risk of breast cancer in the U.S. and Canada. (4) Current vitamin D and calcium dietary intake in the U.S. is far below the RDA in all female age groups, particularly for the elderly. (5) Reduction of breast cancer risk, and simultaneously osteoporosis, might be achieved by increasing dietary intake of calcium and vitamin D to RDA levels. This may be particularly applicable to females during puberty and adolescence.
                    20 years later we now still find:                 Vitamin D and Cancer: The promise not yet fulfilled(California) ; and is there a link (France)?

BUT The Vitamin D Council    sums up the study evidence eg in a major Brit J Cancer metaanalysis last month of 30 prospective studies in 32000 BRCA  patients, and a Chinese study a year ago,   show  that  those with highest  vitamin D levels have 50-90% lower risk of  breast cancer risk, and mortality, and the chance of breast cancer spreading.  so far all they can recommend is that  vitamin D dose should for a robust adult not exceed        10 000iu/day, or pro rata at longer intervals eg 150 000iu a fortnight.  Compared to those with the lowest quartile of plasma 25(OH)D level, women with highest quartile 25(OH)D level showed a significant decreased breast cancer risk (Q4 vs.Q1: OR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.06–0.15) and every 1 ng/ml increment of plasma 25(OH)D level led to a 16% lower odds of breast cancer.

         It is likely that- given the limits on vitamin C intake due to diarrhoea, and cost, and bloating-  increments in vit D3 intake above the current mediocre 400iu/d norm- up to the generally well-tolerated 10 000iu/day, with supplement of vitamin K2-  will give even better benefit against breast cancer than vitamin C.     
          For the past 4 years, Sure Touch examiners  have observed that many women who wear underwired bras have a string of pearl – fibrous lumps- where the bra wire cuts into them inferiorly; and sometimes radially under the ‘ spokes’ of the bra cups.  We have not yet detected a cancer in such symmetrical  lumpiness, which we find diminishes with change to a soft bra and healing massage with Lugols iodine, coconut oil and DMSO.
Dr Joe Mercola muses: ” Would you believe that two of the nation’s most prominent cancer organizations are completely disinterested in a common wardrobe practice that studies suggest could be a leading cause of breast cancer in women? Wearing bras, says the book  ,appears to be a common trigger of this harrowing disease, yet the American Cancer Society (ACS) and the Susan G. Komen Foundation continue to deny any link between the two.
            ” Authors Sydney Ross Singer and Soma Grismaijer, husband and wife medical anthropologists, have conducted extensive research into the link between bras and breast cancer. They are convinced that the lymphatic constriction imposed by wearing bras prevents women’s bodies from effectively clearing out toxins and other waste, leading to an accumulation of these cancer-causing substances. Bras can also cut off circulatory flow within the body, leading to other health problems.
              “[B]ecause lymphatic vessels are very thin, they are extremely sensitive to pressure and are easily compressed,” the Singers are quoted as saying, noting that the perpetual use of bras over the course of several decades can eventually lead to cancer. “Less oxygen and fewer nutrients are delivered to the cells, while waste products are not flushed away.”
             These are powerful claims, and science seems to back them. Based on an analysis comparing women who wear bras to those who don’t, breast cancer risk was found to be significantly higher among women in the former group. At the same time, women who do not wear bras have about the same risk of developing breast cancer as the average man does, which is not very high.
               Beginning in 1991, the Singers initiated a 30-month “Bra and Breast Cancer” study that evaluated roughly 4,000 women from five major U.S. cities. All the women were Caucasian and came from mostly middle-income homes, ranging in age from 30 to 79. About half of them had previously been diagnosed with breast cancer.After determining the bra-wearing habits of all the women, the Singers determined that wearing a bra increases a woman’s risk of developing breast cancer by double. Shockingly, wearing a bra to sleep at night is even worse, with three out of four, or 75 percent, of women who engage in this practice regularly developing the condition.
                 “Women who want to avoid breast cancer should wear a bra for the shortest period of time possible — certainly for less than 12 hours daily,” said Sydney Singer, as quoted by HealingCancerNaturally.com.     One would think that such information would be pertinent to Komen and other cancer organizations, which are purportedly raising money to find a cure. But the Singers and others have never been able to get their attention, with both Komen and the ACS denying any link between bras and breast cancer.So the Singers are calling on women everywhere to not only boycott supporting these organizations, but also to send over their bras whenever they are asked for money. Awareness about the potential dangers of wearing bras should at least be acknowledged by these groups that claim to support cancer awareness, and yet the response of ACS and Komen on the issue has been less than acceptable.
           “Because of this unscientific stonewalling of this information,” Singer wrote, “over the past 20 years 2,000,000 women in the US alone have gotten breast cancer who may have prevented it by simply loosening their bra and wearing it less time each day.”
             To learn more about Dressed To Kill, visit:
19  May 2014 update:  Dr Gerd Gigerenzer PhD, professor at a number of top USA and German institutions and expert in uncertainty, heuristic problem-solving, writes: This One Graphic Will Change the Way You Look at Breast Cancer Screening:  The most trenchant reasoning against screening xray mammography this year is in  Time Magazine 1 May 2014;  which he argues definitely applies to screening mammography: he details four tricks used by zealous proponents of screening mammography to infamously  persuade gullible women why ““If you haven’t had a mammogram, you need more than your breasts examined.”  These tricks are as follows, but are debunked  by the absolute facts in his Fact Box below. He says:

“First, look at the benefit. Out of every thousand women aged 50 and older, five without screening died from breast cancer, compared to four in the screening group. This is an absolute reduction of 1 in 1,000. In fact, it might even be an optimistic estimate because the Canadian follow-up study of women for 25 years after these trials found no reduction at all. But the exact number is not my point here. What I want to explain is how women are being misled.

Trick #1: State that screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 20% or more, because it sounds more impressive than explaining that the absolute risk reduction is 1 in 1,000.   This trick has been used for years in pamphlets. You might think, well, it’s not much, but at least one life is saved. But even that is not true. The number of deaths from all cancers, breast cancer included, is the same in both groups, as seen in line two of the fact box.            And that leads us to                                                                                                                             trick #2: Don’t mention that mammography screening doesn’t reduce the chance of dying from cancer. Talk only about the reduction in dying from breast cancer.      Often, and particularly if a person had multiple cancers, the exact cause of death is unclear. For this reason, total cancer mortality is the more reliable information when you look at it in terms of the larger goal: saving lives. In plain words, there is no evidence to date that routine mammography screening saves lives.             Now let’s look at the harms.

Trick #3: Don’t tell women about unnecessary surgery, biopsies and other harms from overtreatment. If you are asked, play these down.            The first way a mammogram can harm women is if it comes back with a false positive, leading to invasive and unnecessary biopsies. This isn’t the rare fluke most people seem to think it is. This happens to about a hundred out of every thousand women who participated in screening. Legions of women have suffered from this procedure and the related anxieties. After false alarms, many worried for months, developing sleeping problems and affecting relationships with family and friends.

Second, not all breast cancers are life-threatening. Women who have a nonprogressive or slowly growing form that they would never have noticed during their lifetime often undergo lumpectomy, mastectomy, toxic chemotherapy or other interventions that have no benefit for them and that are often accompanied with damaging side-effects. This happened to about five women out of a thousand who participated in screening.

The final trick #4    Tell women about increased survival. For instance, “If you participate in screening and breast cancer is detected, your survival rate is 98%.” Don’t mention mortality.

1 May 2014 update:  Dr Iona Heath FRCP, past president of the New Zealand Royal College of GPs ,  says in March that  Breast cancer mammography screening causes more harm than good.  Dr Kurt Kroenke from Univ Indiana two weeks ago  wrote That most screening test results will be normal or negative is commonplace, but the reality that abnormal results are frequently false-positive is not always well appreciated, nor is it fully conveyed to patients. How does a patient feel after a false-positive test result? Tosteson and colleagues1 concluded from their longitudinal study that “false-positive mammograms are associated with a measurable, small, and transient effect on personal anxiety.” However, a closer look at all the outcomes assessed in this well-done study reveal some adverse consequences that, although not serious, may nonetheless be meaningful.
          Given the harms of  screening, the Spanish consortium sum it up nicely last February:  Optimal (mammography)  screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group.   This last group  is in reality tiny.                                                                                                                                                                    
        As this ongoing Woman’s Care column  stresses, very few well women at any age justify screening mammography, or any screening beyond thorough annual review and bloodpressure  and breast exam check. Only if the annual checkup, with  the examining clinician’s concern about clinical breast feel, or the woman’s  breast symptoms (which in fact rarely originate in the breast and are mostly easily resolved) raise suspicions, may some sort of  no-xray breast imaging be justified- soft SureTouch or ultrasound, or no-touch thermography .  No woman without an obvious  growing solitary breast lump or nipple bleeding/ discharge warrants the harms of initial xray screening mammogram.
                                                                                                                                                                        Unlike Bone Density  Screening available on request,  Sure Touch Breast screening is not charged for since it is part of a proper professional clinical consultation- which can be booked for any regular workday. It is the expert clinical consultation, and any necessary advised evidence-based   natural breast supplements and other changes for prevention, that are billed- obviously at viable market rates, but reduced on justified request based on usual means test.
Breast imaging on its own, without expert clinical assessment and advice , is hazardous because it may cause unwarranted concern and lead to the fearsome  and costly invasive cascade; and because breast imaging without thorough risk factor assessment including expert clinical exam may miss disease that justifies further steps if not immediate resolution.
                                                                                                                                                                HOW TO AVOID UNSETTLING, HARMING WOMEN?  As applies to unjustified mass prostate screening of well men, two new relevant publications below this month highlight the widening gap around MASS BREAST MAMMOGRAPHY SCREENING, between realist  holists- independent  Swiss reviewers  looking at the welfare of women and the real cost-benefits  of  breast screening till now – versus the burn & cut-at-any-cost  screening-industry Dutch career  radiologists’ and cancer experts’  vested-interest view looking solely at breast cancer deaths 2004-5, like most for-profit breast -career specialists   targeting every last well breast from 40years upwards.
The latest Cochrane metanalysis  2013   “found that breast cancer mortality was an unreliable outcome that was biased in favour of screening, mainly because of differential misclassification of cause of death.”
                                                                                                                                                                       Boston San Francisco- Illinois and Spanish- Catalonia-  universities’  reviewers recently make a less in-your-face case  against universal mass mammography screening,  rather selective screening frequency based on individualized risk factors and  potential harms.. But they dont refer to equally effective non-xray imaging techniques; or the fact that no imaging techniques except tissue histology can confirm or exclude cancer. .
                                                                                                                                                                against: DO NO HARM:  April 16, 2014 / NEJM  Perspective   from the Swiss Medical Board: Abolishing Mammography Screening Programs?          Nikola Biller-Andorno, and Peter Jüni, http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1401875?query=TOC      In January 2013, the Health Ministers of the Swiss Cantons, the Swiss Medical Association, and the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences mandated the Swiss Medical Board (a medical ethicist,  a clinical epidemiologist, a clinical pharmacologist, an oncologic surgeon, a nurse scientist, a lawyer, and a health economist), an independent health technology assessment initiative,  to prepare a review of mammography screening.We were aware of the controversies that have surrounded mammography screening for the past 10 to 15 years. When we reviewed the available evidence and contemplated its implications in detail, however, we became increasingly concerned.
          First, we noticed that the ongoing debate was based on a series of reanalyses of the same, predominantly outdated trials. The first trial started 50 years ago in New York City and the last  in 1991 in the United Kingdom.1 None of these trials were initiated in the era of modern breast-cancer treatment, which has dramatically improved the prognosis of women with breast cancer. Could the modest benefit of mammography screening in terms of breast-cancer mortality that was shown in trials initiated between 1963 and 1991 still be detected in a trial conducted today?
             Second, we were struck by how nonobvious it was that the benefits of mammography screening outweighed the harms. The relative risk reduction of approximately 20% in breast-cancer mortality associated with mammography that is currently described by most expert panels2 came at the price of a considerable diagnostic cascade, with repeat mammography, subsequent biopsies, and overdiagnosis of breast cancers — cancers that would never have become clinically apparent. The recently published extended follow-up of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study is likely to provide reliable estimates of the extent of overdiagnosis. After 25 years of follow-up, it found that 106 of 484 screen-detected cancers (21.9%) were overdiagnosed.3 This means that 106 of the 44,925 healthy women in the screening group were diagnosed with and treated for breast cancer unnecessarily, which resulted in needless surgical interventions, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, or some combination of these therapies.
      In addition, a Cochrane review of 10 trials involving more than 600,000 women showed no evidence of mammography screening benefit  on overall mortality.1 In the best case, the small reduction in breast-cancer deaths was attenuated by deaths from other causes. In the worst case, the reduction was canceled out by deaths caused by coexisting conditions or by the harms of screening and associated overtreatment. Did the available evidence, taken together, indicate that mammography screening indeed benefits women?
      Third, we were disconcerted by the discrepancy between women’s perceptions of the benefits of mammography screening and the benefits to be expected in reality. The figure  Women’s Perceptions of the Effects of Mammography Screening on Breast-Cancer Mortality as Compared with the Actual Effects. shows the numbers of 50-year-old women in the United States expected to be alive, to die from breast cancer, or to die from other causes if they are invited to undergo regular mammography every 2 years over a 10-year period, as compared with women who do not undergo mammography. The numbers in Panel A are derived from a survey about U.S. women’s perceptions,4 in which 717 of 1003 women (71.5%) said they believed that mammography reduced the risk of breast-cancer deaths by at least half, and 723 women (72.1%) thought that at least 80 deaths would be prevented per 1000 women who were invited for screening. The numbers in Panel B reflect the most likely scenarios according to available trials1-3: a relative risk reduction of 20% and prevention of 1 breast-cancer death. The data for Switzerland, reported in the same study, show similarly overly optimistic expectations. How can women make an informed decision if they overestimate the benefit of mammography so grossly?
      The Swiss Medical Board’s report was made public on February 2, 2014 . It acknowledged that systematic mammography screening might prevent about one death attributed to breast cancer for every 1000 women screened, even though there was no evidence to suggest that overall mortality was affected. At the same time, it emphasized the harm — in particular, false positive test results and the risk of overdiagnosis. For every breast-cancer death prevented in U.S. women over a 10-year course of annual screening beginning at 50 years of age, 490 to 670 women are likely to have a false positive mammogram with repeat examination; 70 to 100, an unnecessary biopsy; and 3 to 14, an overdiagnosed breast cancer that would never have become clinically apparent.5 The board therefore recommended that no new systematic mammography screening programs be introduced and that a time limit be placed on existing programs. In addition, it stipulated that the quality of all forms of mammography screening should be evaluated and that clear and balanced information should be provided to women regarding the benefits and harms of screening.
The report caused uproar and was emphatically rejected by a number of Swiss cancer experts and organizations, some of which called the conclusions “unethical.” One of the main arguments used against it was that it contradicted the global consensus of leading experts in the field — a criticism that made us appreciate our unprejudiced perspective resulting from our lack of exposure to past consensus-building efforts by specialists in breast-cancer screening. Another argument was that the report unsettled women, but we wonder how to avoid unsettling women, given the available evidence.
The Swiss Medical Board is nongovernmental, and its recommendations are not legally binding. Therefore, it is unclear whether the report will have any effect on the policies in our country. Although Switzerland is a small country, there are notable differences among regions, with the French- and Italian-speaking cantons being much more in favor of screening programs than the German-speaking cantons — a finding suggesting that cultural factors need to be taken into account. Eleven of the 26 Swiss cantons have systematic mammography screening programs for women 50 years of age or older; two of these programs were introduced only last year. One German-speaking canton, Uri, is reconsidering its decision to start a mammography screening program in light of the board’s recommendations. Participation in existing programs ranges from 30 to 60% — variation that can be partially explained by the coexistence of opportunistic screening offered by physicians in private practice. At least three quarters of all Swiss women 50 years of age or older have had a mammogram at least once in their life. Health insurers are required to cover mammography as part of systematic screening programs or within the framework of diagnostic workups of potential breast disease.

     It is easy to promote mammography screening if the majority of women believe that it prevents or reduces the risk of getting breast cancer and saves many lives through early detection of aggressive tumors.4 We would be in favor of mammography screening if these beliefs were valid. Unfortunately, they are not, and we believe that women need to be told so. From an ethical perspective, a public health program that does not clearly produce more benefits than harms is hard to justify. Providing clear, unbiased information, promoting appropriate care, and preventing overdiagnosis and overtreatment would be a better choice.

from the  Universities of Zurich &  Bern,  Switzerland; and   Harvard Medical School, Boston . Dr. Biller-Andorno is a member of the expert panel of the Swiss Medical Board; Dr. Jüni was a member of the panel until August 30, 2013

Breast. 2014 Apr 5.  Breast cancer screening halves the risk of breast cancer death: A case-referent study. Paap E, Verbeek AL,Broeders MJ ea.  Netherlands Breast Screening Centres.   Large-scale epidemiologic studies have consistently demonstrated the effectiveness of mammographic screening programs, however the benefits are still subject to debate. We estimated the effect of the Dutch screening program on breast cancer mortality. In a large multi-region case-referent study, we identified all breast cancer deaths in 2004 and 2005 in women aged 50-75 who had been invited for screening (cases). Cases were individually matched to referents from the population invited to screening. A total of 1233 cases and 2090 referents were included in this study. We found a 58% reduction in breast cancer mortality in screened versus unscreened women (adjusted OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.33-0.53). Screening, i.e. early detection and treatment, has resulted in a substantial reduction in breast cancer mortality, indicating that the Dutch breast cancer screening program is highly effective.
                                                                                                                                                                 update  23 March 2014: Caroline Huang at the  Ethox Centre at Oxford writes in   Screening mammography: benefits, harms, and evidence-based guidelines in the US and UK:   The Ethox Centre is a multidisciplinary bioethics research centre in the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Population Health.“Authors Bleyer and Welch claim there has been only an 8% reduction in late-stage breast cancer diagnoses (an absolute reduction of 8 cases per 100,000 women), and while mortality has decreased, it appears that most of the benefit has come from better treatment rather than better screening. (For cancer screening to be considered effective, the US National Cancer Institute says that cancer deaths and late-stage cancer diagnoses should decrease, while early-stage cancer diagnoses should increase.[2])
Contrast these findings to another mammography study published the same week in The Lancet, conducted by an independent panel in the UK as a meta-analysis of 11 randomized trials.[3] The panel estimated overdiagnosis of early-stage breast cancers in the UK to be between 11 and 19%. Crucially, though, there appeared to be a 20% mortality benefit from screening alone.What might account for these significantly different estimations of breast cancer screening effectiveness? The most obvious factor is the frequency and age at which average-risk women are offered mammography. In the UK, women ages 50-70 are offered screening every three years through the NHS Breast Cancer Screening Programme. In the US, women ages 40-70 are typically offered screening every one or two years.      
                      Though a 2009 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) report recommended that average-risk women should receive screening from ages 50-74 every two years,[4] this recommendation has been not been adopted by professional organizations such as the American Cancer Society, the American College of Radiologists, and the National Cancer Institute. In fact, a study published in November in Preventive Medicine showed that there has been no difference in mammograms provided across any age groups in the US since the 2009 USPSTF report was published.[5]These two studies (and many others preceding them) raise plenty of practical questions about diagnostic thresholds, benefits of population screening, limitations of current radiology technologies, and understanding of which cancers do and do not become invasive. But I want to raise a broader question: should there be an ethical imperative compelling different US professional groups that address the same disease or disorder to adopt a common set of evidence-based guidelines?                                                                                                                                                       
          And if there isn’t, then what is the value of having a group like the USPSTF to issue recommendations that may ultimately be ignored by its target audiences?A few reasons for adopting a common set of evidence-based guidelines might be reducing patient and provider confusion, enhancing low-cost access to care, and potentially redistributing funds to further the reach of proven services or improve research. While the National Breast Cancer Screening Programme requires only the NHS to adopt and implement new recommendations, the more fragmented US system means that screening is not organized by a single body and thus involves competing recommendations that could confuse patients trying to make informed choices and providers trying to assist them in doing so. Additionally, because US insurers are increasingly moving towards funding only evidence-based services, having a common set of guidelines would help ensure that providers’ recommended services are covered under patients’ insurance rather than falling into a category of services with questionable benefit that might not be covered. This is perhaps not the optimal ethical consideration to have to make, but it is a necessary component of realistic preventive care. Finally, at the health system level, providing mammograms only to women ages 50-74 might mean that resources currently allocated to mammograms for women ages 40-49 could be put towards more mammograms for women ages 50-74 or other related preventive health services or research.Despite these reasons, however, it would be equally problematic to remove clinical groups’ ability to disagree with recommendations that they believe result from poor statistics or faulty logic. It also does not seem like there is intrinsic opposition to adopting recommendations produced by independent panels or other clinical groups.   
                                                                                                                                                                        The same Preventive Medicine study discussed above references two cases in which recommendations resulted in immediate changes to screening patterns: (1) the National Cancer Institute and American Cancer Society’s 1997 recommendation that mammography be expanded to women ages 40-49 resulted in increased screening, and (2) the USPSTF’s 2008 recommendation against prostate cancer screening in men ages 75 and older resulted in fewer early-stage prostate cancer diagnoses. So the USPSTF has not always been unsuccessful in having its recommendations taken seriously, even in a case where less screening is recommended, and at least one breast cancer screening recommendation has previously had a quick adoption in practice.These cases – as well as the USPSTF 2002 recommendation that originally suggested offering mammography to women ages 40-49 once every 1-2 years, which is reflected in current clinician groups’ guidelines – suggest that the USPSTF’s target audiences aren’t willfully ignoring meta-analyses of available data. Rather, clinicians, advocacy groups, and patients have questioned the methodology behind the 2009 USPSTF recommendation, in a similar fashion to the critiques being raised over the NEJM study.                                                                                
               For example, the American College of Radiology suggested that Bleyer and Welch failed to properly account for an increasing incidence of invasive late-stage breast cancers unrelated to screening uptake.[6] In light of this information, we might reframe the second question to ‘How do we ensure that groups like the USPSTF incorporate the right kind of data into their analyses and recommendations?’ That answer might have to do with rethinking how consultation with relevant clinical and patient advocacy groups is carried out, as well as examining a broader range of data sources. To circle back to the contrast between the NEJM and Lancet findings, it is important to think about how and why the UK’s National Breast Cancer Screening Programme seems to have lower rates of overdiagnosis and greater mortality benefit from screening relative to the US screening system.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             At the very least, these kinds of contradictory non-US outcomes should prompt a re-evaluation of which kinds of evidence we have chosen to evaluate.We might also point to the discourse around prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing – which has been linked to overdiagnosis of early-stage, non-invasive prostate cancer – as one model for where breast cancer screening recommendations may go. Importantly, while clinical organizations have not reached consensus in whether PSA testing should be recommended as a yearly exam for men over 50,[7] they do agree that a careful discussion of PSA testing’s potential harms and benefits is always appropriate.Indeed, the authors of both the Lancet and NEJM articles conclude with similar thoughts: physicians must initiate conversations about the pros and cons of mammography so that patients can make informed choices. That assertion seems uncontroversial enough to be accepted by the various professional groups involved – so perhaps any common set of guidelines we should expect groups to adopt should relate to the communication of evidence rather than potentially controversial or insufficient evidence itself.”
                                                                                                                                                                      15/3/ 2014 update: Great Mammography Debate :  Dr. Patrick Borgen, Chairman of Surgery at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn, New York, talks about the role of screening mammography, a topic bracketed by strong opinions. It has been a particular focus of discussion at the 31st Annual Miami Breast Cancer Conference, held March 6 through March 9, 2014, in Miami, Florida.

               Commentary  The mammography debate is one of the facets of the Miami Breast Cancer Conference this year.   It seems as though the field of breast cancer has always been controversial, going back half a century, and breast cancer is a disease that, more than most others, is very polarizing. This disease engenders great passion—and great debate, which has been ongoing about the role of screening mammography.

            A few weeks ago, The New York Times covered an article that was published in the British Medical Journal 1 about the Canadian National Breast Screening Study. On the surface, this study failed to show any benefit from mammography. That was the story that the writer, Gina Kolata, picked up and ran with. Ms. Kolata had written about her own experience with breast cancer a number of years ago; her breast cancer had not been picked up on a mammogram, and so she is somewhat biased.

               In short, the Canadian study evaluated mammograms from more than 90,000 women who had very primitive mammograms between 1980 and 1984, and that is really the first problem with this study: the technology and the equipment then was incredibly limited, such that the mammograms only showed 30% of breast cancers; whereas, today, mammography detects 70% to 80% of breast cancers. Thus, taking results generated by technology from 34 years ago and making a conclusion about them in today’s world is a stretch.

One of the fundamental flaws of the Canadian study, besides the dated technology on which the conclusions were based, was that it was not randomized. Nurses, and, in some provinces in Canada, doctors, did a clinical breast exam, and, if they felt a mass or a lump, they preferentially put the patient into the mammography arm. That is what I would have done in their place; if I felt a lump, I would not be willing to send someone home.

By the end of the study, there were more than 100 extra breast cancers in the mammography arm and more breast cancers that had spread to lymph nodes in the mammography arm. And, in fact, the chance of dying of breast cancer was higher in the mammography arm.

All of the authorities with whom I have ever spoken or read who have reviewed this study dismiss it as very flawed. A number of the doctors who were involved with the study resigned their positions in protest. Despite all of that, The New York Times ran an article headlined, “Vast Study Casts Doubts on Value of Mammograms” (February 11, 2014).

Well, it is a vastly flawed study, and, in fact, there are six other, much larger and much better controlled studies, all of which showed a reduction in breast cancer mortality from 20% up to 40% in women who have mammograms—and that is certainly what we observe clinically.

We felt that it was important to really highlight this at the Miami Breast Cancer Conference this year. My guess is that our audience already knows this; but, what we would like to give them is the science about why the Canadian study was flawed so that they can talk to their patients and talk to their colleagues who may not be in the breast cancer field. That is really what I think our mission is for part of this year’s conference.

We think that this is dangerous information. We think that women will unnecessarily lose their lives to breast cancer if they forego mammography, which this study frankly says one should. I have a busy practice in Brooklyn, New York, and, at least once or twice a week, I see someone, without any question, whose life was saved by a mammogram.

I think that we all agree we need something better than mammography. We all agree that mammography can lead to over-diagnosis of breast cancers, and over-diagnosis happens, of course, when we screen for diseases in other areas of the body. We all accept this limitation.

But, for a major media outlet to take a single study that was deeply flawed and not even mention the existence of other studies, even as a point–counterpoint, I think was a bit outrageous!

12 March 2014 this publication on the Huffington Post website  today under screening mammography is as appropriate as when it was published in 2010:

The NBCAM has assured women that “early (mammography) detection results in a cure nearly 100 percent of the time.” More specifically, the NBCAM is directed to claims for reducing the incidence and mortality of breast cancer through early detection by annual mammography starting at age 40. Moreover, mammograms can miss cancers in premenopausal women due to the density of their breasts, and also fail to detect cancers smaller than half an inch.

Still denied by the ACS is clear evidence that premenopausal mammography poses significant risks of breast cancer. The routine practice of taking two films annually for each breast results in approximately 0.5 rad (radiation absorbed dose) exposure. This is about 500 times the dose from a single chest X-ray and is broadly focused on the entire chest rather than narrowly on the breast. This is also 25 times higher than is allowed by the Environmental Protection Agency for whole-body radiation from local nuclear industries (0.02 rad). Moreover, the breast is the most sensitive organ to ionizing radiation.

As warned by the prestigious National Academy of Sciences in 1972 but still ignored by the ACS, the premenopausal breast is highly sensitive to the risks of cancer from mammography, as each rad exposure increases the risks of breast cancer by 1 percent. This results in a cumulative 10 percent increased risk for each breast following a decade of routine screening. This can also accounts for the 19-percent increased incidence of breast cancer since 1975. Not surprisingly, the prestigious U.S. Preventive Task Force, supported by the National Breast Cancer Coalition, warned last year against routine premenopausal mammography. Also, not surprisingly, routine premenopausal mammography is practiced by no nation other than the U.S.

Risks of premenopausal mammography are some four-fold greater for the 2 percent of women who are carriers of the A-T gene (ataxia telangiectasia) and are highly sensitive to the carcinogenic effects of radiation. By some estimates, this accounts for up to 20 percent of all breast cancers diagnosed annually. Compounding these problems, missed cancers are common in premenopausal women due to the density of their breasts.

That most breast cancers are first recognized by women was admitted by the ACS in 1985. “We must keep in mind that at least 90 percent of the women who develop breast cancer discover the tumors themselves.” Furthermore, an analysis of several 1993 studies showed that women who regularly performed breast self-examination (BSE) detected their cancers much earlier than women failing to examine themselves. The effectiveness of BSE, however, depends on training by skilled professionals, enhanced by an annual clinical breast examination. Nevertheless, in spite of such evidence, the ACS dismisses BSE, and claims that “no studies have clearly shown [its] benefit.”

As reported in our 1999 publication in the International Journal of Health Services, an article in a leading Massachusetts newspaper featured a photograph of two women in their twenties. The article promised that early detection by mammography results in a cure “nearly 100 percent of the time.” Questioned by journalist Kate Dempsey, an ACS communications director responded: “The ad isn’t based on a study. When you make an advertisement, you just say what you can to get women in the door. You exaggerate a point — Mammography today is a lucrative [and] highly competitive business.”

If all 20 million U.S. premenopausal women submitted to annual mammograms, the minimal annual costs would be $2.5 billion. Such costs would be increased some fourfold if the industry, supported by radiologists, succeeds in its efforts to replace film machines, costing about $100,000, with high-tech digital machines, costing over $400,000, even in the absence of any evidence for their improved effectiveness.

With this background, it is hardly surprising that the National Breast Cancer Awareness Month neglects to inform women how they can reduce their risks of breast cancer. In fact, we know a great deal about its avoidable causes which remain ignored by the ACS. These include:

    • Prolonged use of the Pill, and estrogen replacement therapy.
    • Prolonged consumption of milk from cows injected with a genetically engineered growth hormone to increase milk production. This milk is contaminated with high levels of a natural growth factor, which increases risks of breast cancer by up to seven-fold.
    • High consumption of meat, as it is contaminated with potent natural or synthetic estrogens. These are routinely implanted in cattle before entry into feedlots, about 100 days prior to slaughter, to increase muscle mass and profits for the meat industry.
    • Prolonged exposure to a wide range of hormonal ingredients in conventional cosmetics and personal care products.
  • Living near hazardous waste sites, petrochemical plants, power lines, and nuclear plants.

The enthusiastic and continuing support of premenopausal mammography by the ACS is hardly surprising in view of its major conflicts of interest that still remain unrecognized. Five radiologists have served as ACS presidents. In its every move, the ACS promotes the interests of the major manufacturers of mammogram machines and films, including Siemens, DuPont, General Electric, Eastman Kodak and Piker. The mammography industry also conducts research for the ACS, serves on its advisory boards, and donates considerable funds. DuPont is also a substantial backer of the ACS Breast Health Awareness Program. It sponsors television shows touting mammography; produces advertising, promotional materials and literature for hospitals and doctor; and lobbies Congress for legislation promoting the availability of mammography. The ACS has been and remains strongly linked with the mammography industry, while ignoring or criticizing the value of breast self-examination, even following training by a qualified nurse or clinician.

The ACS conflicts of interest extend well beyond the mammography industry. The ACS has received contributions in excess of $100,000 from a wide range of “Excalibur (industry) Donors,” who manufacture carcinogenic products. These include petrochemical companies (DuPont, BP and Pennzoil), Big Pharma (AstraZenceca, Bristol Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck & Company and Novartis), and cosmetic companies (Christian Dior, Avon, Revlon and Elizabeth Arden).

Samuel S. Epstein, M.D. is professor emeritus of Environmental and Occupational Medicine at the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health; Chairman of the Cancer Prevention Coalition; and a former President of the Rachel Carson Trust. His awards include the 1998 Right Livelihood Award and the 2005 Albert Schweitzer Golden Grand Medal for International Contributions to Cancer Prevention. Dr. Epstein has authored 270 scientific articles and 20 books on cancer prevention, including the groundbreaking “The Politics of Cancer” (1979), and most recently “Toxic Beauty” (2009, Benbella Books: www.benbellabooks.com) about carcinogens, besides other toxic ingredients, in cosmetics and personal care products. Email: epstein@uic.edu. Web: www.preventcancer.com.

update 6 March 2014    Switzerland debates dismantling its breast cancer screening programme   BMJ 2014;348:g1625   “A row has erupted in Switzerland after the Swiss Medical Board  recommended that the country’s mammography screening programme for breast cancer be suspended because it leads to too many unnecessary interventions.
              In a report made public on 2 February, the board said that while systematic mammography screening for breast cancer saved 1-2 women’s lives for every 1000 screened, it led to unnecessary investigations and treatment for around 100 women in every 1000.1 “The desirable effect is offset by the undesirable effects,” said the report, which was based on study data from 1963 to 1991   comparing 1000 women who were screened with 1000 women who were not. The report also concluded that screening was not cost effective.…”

update 1 Mar 2014   Supporting informed decision making when clinical evidence and conventional wisdom, clash.   The nub of the screening mammography war – and all hard-sell marketing hype-  is elegantly analyzed by a USA multiUniversity Communications team in Against conventional wisdom: when the public, the media, and medical practice collide.       Jakob Jensen ea argue that “the screening mammography  controversy was driven by the systematic removal of uncertainty from science communication. To increase comprehension and adherence, health information communicators remove caveats, limitations, and hedging so science appears simple and more certain. This streamlining process is, in many instances, initiated by researchers as they engage in dissemination of their findings, and  is facilitated by public relations professionals, journalists, public health practitioners, and others whose tasks involve using the results from research for specific purposes.   Uncertainty is removed from public communication because many communicators believe that it is difficult for people to process and/or that it is something the audience wants to avoid. Uncertainty management theory posits that people can find meaning and value in uncertainty.                  CONCLUSIONS: Science is routinely simplified as it is prepared for public consumption.     In line with the model of information overload, this practice may increase short-term adherence to recommendations at the expense  of long-term message consistency and trust in science”. 

          The Mammography Saves Lives  screening campaign  was and is to recruit all older women to regular screening; it  was progressively oversold   by removing, ignoring the science uncertainty. “Science is routinely simplified as it is prepared for public consumption. In line with the model of information overload, this practice may increase short-term adherence to recommendations at the expense of long-term message consistency and trust in science”.

We see the same collusion between corporate marketeers and government regulators in so many high-profit industries:
  on Pubmed,  screening mammography features for 50 years, and continued to expand exponentially without hindrance until enough epidemiologists – led by the Cochrane Group- collectively  rang enough alarm bells the past decade. The zealous huge-profit USA  radiology-oncology industry simply shouted down the negative result of the massive Canadian Screening Mammography trial outcome   30 years ago in 90 000 women, and continue to do so with the 25year results now reported. The huge Breast Industry retaliates by threatening whistle blowers.

*at the same time around 50years ago, as many of us were starting medical studies, Keys and Stamler  et al in USA did bad epidemiological studies that subverted the facts of  healthy indigenous diets around Europe, Africa and Asia, and the healthy traditional English-speaking (USA and the British Empire) working population’s mainly fresh meat/fish  fat and farm produce diet,
      to claim that the reverse be promoted-  factory-produced low fat low cholesterol high carbohydrate (cereals, potato, white flour and white rice) –  and worse, quadrupling of fructose and sucrose intake, with increasing obesity;   and then noxious statins- for-all for the resultant carbs-inducedlipidemia “epidemic”;  and the  dangerous hypoglycemic drugs for mushrooming type 2 diabetes, and NSAIDs for arthritis; and numerous wannabe antiobesity drugs; and finally the new industry of bariatric surgery!.
        see the classic expose books: John Gofman’s  Preventing Breast Cancer 1996; James le Fanu ‘s  The Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine 1999 ; Gary Taubes’ The Diet Delusion (2007);  Ben Goldacre’s Bad Pharma 2012 and Peter Gotzsche’s Mammography Screening: Truth, Lies and Controversy 2013

*and as a result,  the past 30years,- against all rational food  science and biology – Montsanto’s Government- approved  rape  of healthy food agriculture by genetically modified crops laced with toxic environmentally persistent glyphosate C3H8NO5P- Roundup.

It is no irony that one of the leading medical scientists of the 20th century Dr John Gofman took part in  the Manhattan  nuclear Project, was a pioneer of VLDL lipidology, and then an activist for protecting women against the accumulating harm of mammography – “there is no safe dose of radiation”.

 at Exam. Resulting Risk of Mammogram-Induced Breast Cancer. 1998
Any age in 1 exam: 1 chance in about 1,100.
30-34 range. 5 exams: 5 chances/1100, or 1 chance in 220.
Any age in 1 exam: 1 chance in about 1,900.
35-49 range. 10 exams: 10 chances/1900, or 1 chance in 190.
Any age in 1 exam: 1 chance in about 2,000.
50-64 range. 15 exams: 15 chances/2,000, or 1 chance in 133.

Dr Emily Transue MD eloquently describes her personal disillusionment with screening mammography.

                                                                                                                                                                                     update 23 Feb 2014     Like Wikipedia on breast screening, Karen Kaplan in the L.A.Times this week challenges mammography radiologists: stop lying to patients about the benefits of screening mammography. As Dr David Katz in the Huffington Post muses, can we unmuddle mammography?                                                                            The USA National Cancer Association promotion conspicuously avoids mentioning the equal balance between benefits and risks of screening mammography, 
and Dr Charles Wright in the Toronto Globe and Mail  says   “It’s time for a new approach to mammograms  
     The New York Times review this week turns the report of the Canadian trial to focus on the importance of breast self-examination; their other review  agrees that  Vast Study Casts Doubts on Value of Mammograms.
It is damning that Cochrane studies   (which date from about 1994) -for mammography published only since year 2000 – have consistently found that screening mammography imaging has no material longterm survival benefit for women with apparently normal breasts, with numerous potential harms.
      The question remains, should people  without suspicious cancer  symptoms or bad family history  have any invasive screening (of breast and prostate) beyond regular appropriate physical examination? when all of us should follow  sensible lifestyle, diet and appropriate supplements to minimize both acute and chronic diseases, and thus die well in old age.
                If women without apparent high risk  will not be satisfied by clinical reassurance, prescreening  image recording without compression irradiation will depend on what is locally available.
The USA National Cancer Institute at the NIH , while dutifully promoting regular screening mammography, negates their promotion by listing  precisely  7 lines,  one benefit : Early detection of breast cancer with screening mammography means that treatment can be started earlier in the course of the disease, possibly before it has spread. Results from randomized clinical trials and other studies show that screening mammography may  reduce the number of deaths from breast cancer among women ages 40 to 70, especially for those over age 50..
            But it lists 46 lines of potential harms:” What are some of the potential harms of screening mammograms?      
1. “Finding cancer early doesnt  reduce a woman’s chance of dying from breast cancer or any cause. Even though mammograms can detect malignant tumors that cannot be felt, treating a small tumor does not always mean that the woman will not die from the cancer. A fast-growing or aggressive cancer may have already spread to other parts of the body before it is detected.                                                              
2. Fear: “Women with such detected  early tumors live a longer period of time fearing that they likely have a fatal disease… screening mammograms dont help prolong the life of a woman who is suffering from other, more life-threatening health conditions. Depression anxiety let alone suicide are increased .
3. “False-negative results occur when mammograms appear normal even though breast cancer is present. Overall, screening mammos miss about 20% of breast cancers that are present at the time of screening.. from  high breast density i.e., glandular tissue and connective tissue, together known as fibroglandular tissue) and fatty tissue.  Because fibroglandular tissue and tumors have similar density, tumors can be harder to detect in women with denser breasts more often among younger women than among older women because younger women are more likely to have dense breasts. As a woman ages, her breasts usually become more fatty, and false-negative results become less likely. False-negative results can lead to delays in treatment and a false sense of security for affected women.                              
4. “False-positive results occur when radiologists decide mammograms are abnormal but no cancer is actually present. All abnormal mammograms should be followed up with additional testing (diagnostic mammograms, ultrasound, and/or biopsy) to determine whether cancer is present… more common for younger women, women who have had previous breast biopsies, women with a family history of breast cancer, and women who are taking estrogen (for example, menopausal hormone therapy).        False-positive mammogram results can lead to anxiety and other forms of psychological distress in affected women. The additional testing required to rule out cancer can also be costly and time consuming and can cause physical discomfort. .                                                                                                            
5. “Overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Screening mammograms can find cancers and cases of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, noninvasive tumor  cells that may become cancerous build up in the lining of breast ducts) that need to be treated. However, they can also find cancers and cases of DCIS that will never cause symptoms or threaten a woman’s life, leading to “overdiagnosis” of breast cancer. Treatment of these latter cancers and cases of DCIS is not needed leads to “overtreatment.” Overtreatment exposes women unnecessarily to the adverse effects associated with cancer therapy.      Because doctors often cannot distinguish cancers and cases of DCIS that need to be treated from those that do not, they overtreat .                                                                                                                              
6. “Radiation exposure. Mammograms require very small doses of radiation. The risk of harm from this radiation exposure is extremely low, but repeated x-rays have the potential to cause cancer. 

They fail to list other adverse effects:                                                                                       7. Pain and bruising of crush mammography- sometimes prolonged;                     8. spreading early and likely dormant cancer.                                                                   9. Increased incidence of breast cancer and thus more irradiation, mastectomy and all-cause mortality, and                                                                                                              10. complications of surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy.                                                 ………………………..

           the Rapid Responses to the 25year  Breast cancer incidence and mortality of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study show again the Great Divide between objective  epidemiological evidence,  and vested-interest belief by those whose careers and incomes depend on zealous pursuit of early (pre)cancers.
                 Prof Michael Baum as a former UK Screening Mammography leader again trenchantly quotes reality to protect women from terrorism by screening mammography and mastectomy, in particular urging the same policy of watchful waiting to see the natural course of early  cancer-   that has saved so many men from harmful diagnostic and therapeutic invasion of asymptomatic prostate cancer.
                  We must stress that, if the patient refuses or is denied conventional oncotherapy, Watchful Waiting should always be supported including by all possible improvements in multibeneficial diet, lifestyle and supplements, and avoidance of cancer-promoting estrogenics .
     Women who choose not to have mammography and oncotherapy for highly suspicious lumps or even advancing cancers, or have been classified by cancer clinics  as too advanced for oncotherapy- told they have very short life expectancy- illustrate the lesson of watchful waiting with active intervention. We  see surprising regression in breast lumps, breast cancer and quality life extension in those who refuse to accept the oncologists’  death predictions  and who apply strong faith and  some of the many evidence-based changes and preventative natural supplement remedies we have  collated,    before or  even after the gamut /  gauntlet  of crush mammography, biopsy, surgery and radio-chemotherapy.
                                                                                                                                                           update 21 Feb 2014 The Oncologist publishes epidemiologist Archie Bleyer’s   “Were Our Estimates of Overdiagnosis With Mammography Screening in the United States Based on Faulty Science”?   rebuttal of radiologist Prof Daniel Kopans’  denial of the overdiagnosis of breast cancer.
        The point Bleyer again makes is that women have the choice provided they are fully informed of the pros and cons, and the options to screening mammography  and biopsy.
                 16 Feb 2014 update:   a slew of new papers reinforces the futility and hazards of mammography screening for early breast cancer- and the divide between the vested interests of mammographers/ oncologists – those who make their living from finding every possible cancer-  and the welfare of women:
                    Natural News today reviews criticisms of mammography from USA.
   in  NEJM 13 Feb , 2014,       Lisa Rosenbaum MD , Univ Pensylvania:  sums up the dilemma of real but unprofitable evidence vs profiteering, culture  and feeling  : Misfearing” — Culture, Identity, and Our Perceptions of Health Risks  Despite knowing that heart disease kills more women each year than all cancers combined, most women fear breast cancer far more — and their health-related behavior reflects this difference. If our sense of risk is less about fact than about feeling, how do we adjust it?
BMJ Feb 11,  2014: 25year  Breast cancer incidence and mortality of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study: randomised screening trial   Anthony  Miller, Cornelia  Baines, Steven  Nar ea,  compared breast cancer incidence and mortality up to 25 years later  in 89 835 volunteer women aged 40-59 randomly assigned to mammography (five annual mammography screens) or control (no mammography) in 15 screening centres in six Canadian provinces, 1980-85 . .  Women aged 40-49 in the mammography arm and all women aged 50-59 in both arms received annual physical breast examinations. Women aged 40-49 in the control arm received a single examination followed by usual care in the community.  Main outcome measure Deaths from breast cancer.  Results During the five year screening period, 666 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed in the mammography arm (n=44 925 participants) and 524 in the controls (n=44 910), and of these, 180 women in the mammography arm and 171 women in the control arm died of breast cancer during the 25 year follow-up period. The overall hazard ratio for death from breast cancer diagnosed during the screening period associated with mammography was 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.30). in those aged 40-49 and 50-59 . During the entire study period, 3250 women in the mammography arm and 3133 in the control arm had a diagnosis of breast cancer, and 500 and 505, respectively, died of breast cancer. Thus the cumulative mortality from breast cancer was similar between women in the mammography arm and in the control arm (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 1.12). After 15 years of follow-up a residual excess of 106 cancers was observed in the mammography arm, attributable to over-diagnosis.   Conclusion Annual mammography in women aged 40-59 does not reduce mortality from breast cancer beyond that of physical examination or usual care when adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is freely available. Overall, 22% (106/484) of screen detected invasive breast cancers were over-diagnosed, representing one over-diagnosed breast cancer for every 424 women who received mammography screening in the trial.
                        Editorial Too much mammography  11 February 2014   BMJ 2014;348:g1403 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g1403  Mette Kalager,Hans-Olov Adami, Michael Bretthauer, Norway.                                     Long term follow-up does not support screening women under 60.   Before being widely implemented, mammography screening was tested in randomised controlled trials in the 1960s to 80s. Meta-analyses of these trials showed a relative reduction in deaths from breast cancer of between 15% and 25% among women aged 50 to 69.1 2 3 Only the Canadian National Breast Screening Study showed no reduction in breast cancer mortality.1 2 3 This large randomised controlled trial compared physical breast examination with combined physical breast examination and annual mammography in women aged 40 to 59.1 2 3    In a linked paper (doi:10.1136/bmj.g366), Miller and colleagues present the results for up to 25 years of follow-up in the Canadian study.4 No difference in breast cancer mortality was observed between the mammography and control arms, whereas a significant excess incidence of invasive breast cancer was observed in the mammography arm, resulting in 22% overdiagnosis. This means that 22% of screen detected invasive cancers would not have reduced a woman’s life expectancy if left undetected. The major strengths of this study include its randomised design, intense intervention with five annual mammography screenings, high compliance, and complete, long term follow-up. The lack of mortality benefit is also biologically plausible because the mean tumour size was 19 mm in the screening group and 21 mm in the control group. This 2 mm difference—which might be even smaller if overdiagnosed cancers could be excluded from the screening group—represents a minimal proportion of the entire clinical course for breast tumours.  But the trial also has some potential limitations. No quantitative data are available on the degree of contamination in the control arm or possible confounding by screening mammography after the trial. It seems unlikely, however, that such potential limitations would conceal a clinically important benefit. The rate of overdiagnosis did not include ductal carcinoma in situ, and the trial provides no data for women older than 60.

               The Canadian study, launched in 1980, is the only trial to enroll participants in the modern era of routine adjuvant systemic treatment for breast cancer, and the women were educated in physical breast examination as advocated today.4 These important features may make this study more informative for a modern setting, compared with other randomised trials. The results of the study are strikingly similar—for both lack of efficacy and extent of overdiagnosis—to recent studies evaluating today’s screening programmes.5 6 7 The real amount of overdiagnosis in current screening programmes might be even higher than that reported in the Canadian study,4 because ductal carcinoma in situ, which accounts for one in four breast cancers detected in screening programmes,8 was not included in the analyses.

                Other studies also indicate that improved treatment rather than screening is the reason for the decline in breast cancer mortality during the past four or five years.5 7 Even though different studies arrive at different reductions in breast cancer mortality (from 10% to 25%), these benefits translate to only marginal differences in absolute effects. Much larger variation is seen in the estimates of overdiagnosis.6 In studies based on statistical modelling, overdiagnosis was less than 5%.6 By contrast, most observational studies report higher estimates of overdiagnosis, ranging from 22% to 54%,6 depending on denominator used.9 When the number of breast cancers detected at screening is used as the denominator (as in the Canadian study), the amount of overdiagnosis observed in the previous randomised controlled trials is strikingly similar (22-24%).4 10

How do the data on mammography screening compare with data on prostate cancer screening by prostate specific antigen, which is currently not encouraged in the United Kingdom and other countries owing to its small effect on mortality and large risk of overdiagnosis (www.screening.nhs.uk/prostatecancer)? The figure on bmj.com shows that the absolute harms (overdiagnosis) and benefits (mortality reduction) are not very different between the screening types. The 20 year risk of breast cancer for a 50 year old woman is 6.1% with screening (including 22% overdiagnosis 4),11 and 5.0% without screening; and the corresponding numbers for prostate cancer in a 50 year old man are 3.9% with screening (including 45% overdiagnosis 12) and 2.7% without screening.11 The 20 year risk of death from cancer for a 55 year old woman is 1.5% with screening (assuming a 20% reduction in mortality2)11 and 1.9% without screening; and the corresponding numbers for prostate cancer in a 55 year old man are 1.0% with (assuming a 20% reduction in mortality12) and 1.3% without screening.11

           Nevertheless, the UK National Screening Committee does recommend mammography screening for breast cancer but not prostate specific antigen screening for prostate cancer, stating that the “aim is to only implement programs that do more good than harm and that the informed choice is a guided principle of screening” (www.screening.nhs.uk/screening). Because the scientific rationale to recommend screening or not does not differ noticeably between breast and prostate cancer, political pressure and beliefs might have a role.

             We agree with Miller and colleagues that “the rationale for screening by mammography be urgently reassessed by policy makers.” As time goes by we do indeed need more efficient mechanisms to reconsider priorities and recommendations for mammography screening and other medical interventions. This is not an easy task, because governments, research funders, scientists, and medical practitioners may have vested interests in continuing activities that are well established.

                RESPONSES:  12 February 2014  BMJ 2014;348:g366 :                     1. rebuttal by USA  radiologists : Daniel B. Kopans, Professor of Radiology Harvard Medical School.  Having been one of the experts called on in 1990 to review the quality of their mammograms I can personally attest to the fact that the quality was poor (1). To save money they used second hand mammography machines. The images were compromised by scatter since they did not employ grids for much of the trial. They failed to fully position the breasts in the machines so that cancers were missed because the technologists were not taught proper positioning, and their radiologists had no specific training in mammographic interpretation.   

The CNBSS’s own reference physicist wrote:“..in my work as reference physicist to the NBSS, [I] identified many concerns regarding the quality of mammography carried out in some of the NBSS screening centers. That quality [in the NBSS] was far below state of the art, even for that time (early 1980’s). ” (2)

In this latest paper (3) the authors gloss over the fact that only 32% of the cancers were detected by mammography alone. This extremely low number is consistent with the poor quality of the mammography. At least two thirds of the cancers should be detected by mammography alone (4). In their accompanying editorial (5) Kalager and Adami admit that ” The lack of mortality benefit is also biologically plausible because the mean tumour size was 19 mm in the screening group and 21 mm in the control group….a 2 mm difference.” Poor quality mammography does not find breast cancers at a smaller size and earlier stage and would not be expected to reduce deaths.

The documented poor quality of the CNBSS mammography is sufficient to explain their results and all of the above disqualifies the CNBSS as a scientific study of mammography screening, but it was even worse than that. In order to be valid, randomized, controlled trials (RCT) require that assignment of the women to the screening group or the unscreened control group is totally random. A fundamental rule for an RCT is that nothing can be known about the participants until they have been randomly assigned so that there is no risk of compromising the random allocation. Furthermore, a system needs to be employed so that the assignment is truly random and cannot be compromised. The CNBSS violated these fundamental rules (6). Every woman first had a clinical breast examination by a trained nurse (or doctor) so that they knew the women who had breast lumps, many of which were cancers, and they knew the women who had large lymph nodes in their axillae indicating advanced cancer. Before assigning the women to be in the group offered screening or the control women they knew who had large incurable cancers. This was a major violation, but it went beyond that. Instead of a random system of assigning the women they used open lists. The study coordinators who were supposed to randomly assign the volunteers, probably with good, but misguided, intentions, could simply skip a line to be certain that the women with lumps and even advanced cancers got assigned to the screening arm to be sure they would get a mammogram. It is indisputable that this happened since there was a statistically significant excess of women with advanced breast cancers who were assigned to the screening arm compared to those assigned to the control arm (7). This guaranteed that there would be more early deaths among the screened women than the control women and this is what occurred in the NBSS. Shifting women from the control arm to the screening arm would increase the cancers in the screening arm and reduce the cancers in the control arm which would also account for what they claim is “overdiagnosis”.                                                                                                                                          The analysis of the results from the CNBSS have been suspect from the beginning. The principle investigator ignored the allocation failure in his trial and blamed the early excess of cancer deaths among screened women on his, completely unsupportable, theory that cancer cells were being squeezed into the blood leading to early deaths. This had no scientific basis and was just another example of irresponsibility in the analysis of the data from this compromised trial and he finally retracted the nonsense after making front page headlines (6).

      The compromise of the CNBSS trial is indisputable. The 5 year survival from breast cancer among women ages 40-49 in Canada in the 1980’s was only 75%, yet the control women in the CNBSS, who were supposed to represent the Canadian population at the time, had a greater than 90% five year survival. This could only happen if cancers were shifted from the control arm to the screening arm. The CNBSS is an excellent example of how to corrupt a randomized, controlled trial. Coupling the fundamental compromise of the allocation process with the documented poor quality of the mammography should, long ago, have disqualified the CNBSS as a legitimate trial of screening mammography. Anyone who suggests that it was properly done and its results are valid and should be used to reduce access to screening either does not understand the fundamentals, or has other motives for using its corrupted results.

        2.  confirmation:   http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g366?tab=responses  Per-Henrik Zahl, MD & statistician   Norwegian Institute of Public Health.   In this 30-year old study, the authors report no mortality reduction when screening with mammography and 22% overdiagnosis (1). The sensitivity of the mammography technique has improved tremendously in the last three decades. Ten years ago we got digital mammography and recently we have got tomosynthesis (2). The detection rate at mammography in the Canadian study was about 3 per 1000 in the second and later screening rounds (3). In digital mammography, the corresponding detection rate is 6 per 1000 screened woman and in tomosynthesis, the detection rate is 8 per 1000 (2). It could even have been higher if the pathologists had time to perform more biopsies (personal communications). In tomosynthesis a large number of stellate lesions appear, many more than in traditional mammography, and they are probably representing a reservoir of overdiagnosed breast cancers. In the last 15 years, the rate of interval cancer has been constant and is at the same level as in Canada 30 years ago (4). Thus, the level of overdiagnosis is far much bigger today than in Canada 30 years ago.

             update 6 Feb 2014 This column has noted  that in the 2012 report of the the giant ATLAS (and aTTom) trials in 37  countries the past decade (discussed in detail below), despite the claimed 80% cure rate of early silent  breast cancer (diagnosed by mammography screening at around 55yrs),   by 15 years after repeated screening mammography- surgery-radiotherapy,  tamoxifen for 5 or 10 years and annual screening mammography followup,   of the women who had died by age 70yrs and had autopsy,   some 43% had (silent) recurrence of breast cancer- although this had been detected in far fewer living women. The 15 year ATLAS results overall were depressing- in those originally early silent estrogen-receptor positive breast cancers, although only about 20% had clinical recurrence by a mean age of 70yrs, of the 22% who had died by then,  almost half ie 43% had recurrence of breast cancer at autopsy.
How successful was tamoxifen versus placebo?
Why was  the Atlas trial  felt not to justify a no-tamoxifen control group?
               Sir Richard Peto’s earlier Oxford review (Horm Res 1989;32:165) Effects of Adjuvant Tamoxifen and of Cytotoxic Therapy on Mortality in Early Breast Cancer. An Overview of 61 Randomised Trials Among 28,896 Women  sought information worldwide on mortality according to assigned treatment in all randomised trials that began before 1985 of adjuvant tamoxifen or cytotoxic therapy for early breast cancer (with or without regional lymph node involvement). Coverage was reasonably complete for most countries. In 28 trials of tamoxifen nearly 4,000 of 16,513 women had died,  reductions in mortality due to treatment  were significant when tamoxifen was compared with no tamoxifen (p < 0.0001), any chemotherapy with no chemotherapy (p=0.003), and polychemotherapy with single-agent chemotherapy (p=0.001). In tamoxifen trials, there was a clear reduction in mortality only among women aged 50 or older, for whom assignment to tamoxifen reduced the annual odds of death during the first 5 years by about one fifth. In chemotherapy trials there was a clear reduction only among women under 50, for whom assignment to polychemotherapy reduced the annual odds of death during the first 5 years by about one quarter. Direct comparisons showed that combination chemotherapy was significantly more effective than single-agent therapy. Because it involved several thousand women, this overview was able to demonstrate particularly clearly that both tamoxifen and cytotoxic therapy can reduce five-year mortality.
         A decade later  the 1998 Tamoxifen for early breast cancer: overview of the randomised trials:  Oxford Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative GroupCorresponding Author (The Lancet, 1998: 351,: 1451 – 1467) confirmed Peto’s review:  In 1995, information was sought on each woman in any randomised trial that began before 1990 of adjuvant tamoxifen versus no tamoxifen before recurrence on 37 000 women in 55 such trials, comprising about 87% of the worldwide evidence. Compared with the previous such overview, this approximately doubles the amount of evidence from trials of about 5 years of tamoxifen and, taking all trials together, on events occurring more than 5 years after randomisation.
                Nearly 8000 of the women had a low, or zero, level of the oestrogen-receptor protein (ER) measured in their primary tumour. Among them, the overall effects of tamoxifen appeared to be small, and subsequent analyses of recurrence and total mortality are restricted to the remaining women (18 000 with ER-positive tumours, plus nearly 12 000 more with untested tumours, of which an estimated 8000 would have been ER-positive). For trials of 1 year, 2 years, and about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen, the proportional recurrence reductions produced among these 30 000 women during about 10 years of follow-up were 21% (SD 3), 29% (SD 2), and 47% (SD 3), respectively, with a highly significant trend towards greater effect with longer treatment (χ21=52·0, 2p<0·00001). The corresponding proportional mortality reductions were 12% (SD 3), 17% (SD 3), and 26% (SD 4), respectively, and again the test for trend was significant (χ21= 8·8, 2p=0·003). The absolute improvement in recurrence was greater during the first 5 years, whereas the improvement in survival grew steadily larger throughout the first 10 years. The proportional mortality reductions were similar for women with node-positive and node-negative disease, but the absolute mortality reductions were greater in node-positive women. In the trials of about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen the absolute improvements in 10-year survival were 10·9% (SD 2·5) for node-positive (61·4% vs 50·5% survival, 2p<0·00001) and 5·6% (SD 1·3) for node-negative (78·9% vs 73·3% survival, 2p<0·00001). These benefits appeared to be largely irrespective of age, menopausal status, daily tamoxifen dose (which was generally 20 mg), and of whether chemotherapy had been given to both groups. In terms of other outcomes among all women studied (ie, including those with “ER-poor” tumours), the proportional reductions in contralateral breast cancer were 13% (SD 13), 26% (SD 9), and 47% (SD 9) in the trials of 1, 2, or about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. The incidence of endometrial cancer was approximately doubled in trials of 1 or 2 years of tamoxifen and approximately quadrupled in trials of 5 years of tamoxifen (although the number of cases was small and these ratios were not significantly different from each other). The absolute decrease in contralateral breast cancer was about twice as large as the absolute increase in the incidence of endometrial cancer. Tamoxifen had no apparent effect on the incidence of colorectal cancer or, after exclusion of deaths from breast or endometrial cancer, on any of the other main categories of cause of death (total nearly 2000 such deaths; overall relative risk 0·99 [SD 0·05]).
            So, for corroboration we need the autopsy results of the women in the earlier tamoxifen vs placebo studies; and the 20 year results of the Atlas study. The ATLAS study reports clearly that silent breast cancer was more than twice as high in autopsied cases as in screening mammography during life. The conundrum remains whether  early cancer detection by regular repeated screening mammography, and early treatment by biopsy, surgery, radiotherapy and tamoxifen, is more beneficial or more harmful to women long term?
24 Jan 2014   Overdiagnosis    Overtreatment of Breast Cancer   .Am Soc Clin Oncol Educ Book. 2012;32:e40-e45. doi:  Alvarado M, Ozanne E, Esserman L. meetinglibrary.asco.org/sites/meetinglibrary.asco.org/files/Educational Book/PDF Files/2012/zds00112000e40.pdf  Dept Surgery Univ Calif San Francisco. write:   “Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women. Through greater awareness, mammographic screening, and aggressive biopsy of calcifications, the proportion of low-grade, early stage cancers and in situ lesions among all breast cancers has risen substantially. The introduction of molecular testing has increased the recognition of lower risk subtypes, and less aggressive treatments are more commonly recommended for these subtypes. Mammographically detected breast cancers are much more likely to have low-risk biology than symptomatic tumors found between screenings (interval cancers) or that present as clinical masses.                                                                                                                                
        Recognizing the lower risk associated with these lesions and the ability to confirm the risk with molecular tests should safely enable the use of less aggressive treatments. Importantly, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions, or what have been called stage I cancers, in and of themselves are not life-threatening. In situ lesions have been treated in a manner similar to that of invasive cancer, but there is little evidence to support that this practice has improved mortality. It is also being recognized that DCIS lesions are heterogeneous, and a substantial proportion of them may in fact be precursors of more indolent invasive cancers. Increasing evidence suggests that these lesions are being overtreated. The introduction of molecular tests should be able to help usher in a change in approach to these lesions. Reclassifying these lesions as part of the spectrum of high-risk lesions enables the use of a prevention approach. Learning from the experience with active surveillance in prostate cancer should empower the introduction of new approaches, with a focus on preventing invasive cancer, especially given that there are effective, United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved breast cancer preventive interventions.”                                                                                                                                                                                             5 January 2014:      Quantifying the Benefits and Harms of Screening Mammography.  H Gilbert Welch & Honor Passow  , Dartmouth Geisel school of medicine, NewHampshire  write:  JAMA Intern Med. 2013 Dec 30.                   Like all early detection strategies, screening mammography involves trade-offs. If women are to truly participate in the decision of whether or not to be screened, they need quantification of its benefits and harms. Providing such information is challenging, however, given the uncertainty-and underlying professional disagreement-about the data. In this article, we attempt to bound this uncertainty by providing a range of estimates-optimistic and pessimistic-on the absolute frequency of 3 outcomes important to the mammography decision: breast cancer deaths avoided, false alarms, and overdiagnosis. Among 1000 US women aged 50 years who are screened annually for a decade,                                                                        0.3 to 3.2  ie ~0.17%  will avoid a breast cancer death                                                490 to 670  ie ~58% will have at least 1 false alarm recall, and                               3 to 14 ie         0.85%  will be overdiagnosed and treated needlessly.                                            We hope that these ranges help women to make a decision: either to feel comfortable about their decision to pursue screening or to feel equally comfortable about their decision not to pursue screening. For the remainder, we hope it helps start a conversation about where additional precision is most needed
                                                                                                                                                                     A recent review of a new book by journalist Rolf Hefti- The Mammogram Myth-  consolidating the controversy for and against screening mammography is reviewed by Cape Ray. The book relies heavily on Dr John Gofman (1919-2007), a distinguished medical scientist,  a key member of the Manhattan Project that developed the first atomic bomb used on Nagasaki. In 1996 Gofman published a book entitled Preventing Breast Cancer: The Story of a Major, Proven, Preventable Cause of This Disease, in which he made the astonishing claim that 75% of all breast cancers were caused by women being exposed to ionising radiation from X-rays. As highlighted in a review in JAMA, Gofman’s claim — based on an extensive literature review and certain critical assumptions — was at variance with every other authority, including the National Academy of Sciences and the National Council on Radiation Protection.  Martin Yaffe of Toronto has recently shown that the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer from mammographic screening is not negligible, but this risk is small when compared to the expected reduction in mortality achieved through screening.
                                                                                                                                                                   So the dilemma for health professionals, and for  the target of the zealous Cancer Screening Industry-  healthy women in their prime-of-life middle years- remains:  why have xray mammography screening when the independent evidence from expert epidemiologists is that screening mammograpy  to find preclinical ie precancer does not in fact  meaningfully save lives, entend health or reduce breast surgery and cancer therapy, it actually increases all these risks compared to waiting till cancer presents clinically.                                                                                                                                             Zahl Jorgensen and Gotzsche  in their latest review show that Overestimated lead times in cancer screening has led to substantial underestimation of overdiagnosis.
and Gotzsche’s new book is an expose  of  Deadly Medicines and Organised Crime.  
                                                                                                                          20 July 2013   HUMAN PROGESTERONE  BREASTCANCER RISK  REVISITED: Its 3 years since this column last reviewed progesterone, in the context of osteoporosis,  bone building.   While the first Pubmed report on progesterone implants  is apparently sixty years ago (probably in veterinary reproductive use), Drs John Lee and Kathy Dalton promoted use of solo human progesterone P4 for (post)menopausal protection,  also  against cancer including breast cancer; which l’Hermite 2013 from France, and eg David Sturdee from UK, have recently favourably  summarized in respect of balanced transdermal estrogen and oral micronized progesterone P4. The evidence for P4 as  almost global protection as HRT   has largely been confirmed provided progesterone is used in moderation – ideally transdermally/ transvaginally  like estrogen (Genazzani ea);  some believe in the basal physiological bloodlevel of about 1 to 2 nmol/L,  in balance with basal levels of human estrogen and androgens.                                                                                                                                Vanadin Seiffert-Klauss ea in Munich have recently (2012) confirmed that “women in the (~10year) menopause transition lose trabecular bone at a rapid rate despite intermittently high and usually normal estrogen levels –  especially the lean women (BMI<20kg), and those with family fracture history”.  And in their PEKNO study, “Decreasing rates of ovulation, hormonal changes, and increasing bone loss pre-date menopause by several years.;  in addition to estradiol, progesterone may play a significant role in the interrelationship between the ovaries and the skeleton in women.  differentiation of human osteoblasts from perimenopausal women has been shown to be dose-dependent on progesterone at physiological concentrations.  Higher progesterone levels, as seen in the luteal phase of ovulatory cycles, may be associated with more bone formation and with slightly less bone resorption than anovulatory cycles in which progesterone levels are low (< 5.8 ng/ml)”.                 These data led to the initiation  in perimenopausal women of a large, prospective, 2-year observational PEKNO study – from which interim data indicate that a decrease in ovulation correlated with an increase in the loss of bone mineral density (BMD). A meta-analysis in women *with normal ovulation estimated a BMD increase of 0.5% per year, vs *with ovulatory disturbances (anovulation or short luteal phase) a BMD decrease of 0.7% per year in young women ; but * in postmenopausal women a 1.3% increase per year in BMD when receiving hormone replacement therapy with unopposed estrogens, and a further 0.4% increase in BMD in women receiving estrogens plus progestogens. The role of progesterone in bone metabolism in perimenopausal women who are estrogen-replete requires further study.”  
                                   Thus they show that postmenopausally, addition of progestin may boost BMD by 31% more than ERT alone. But currently some experts eg Kuhl and Schneider and David Zava   feel that evidence warrants caution, that oral human progesterone P4  may have a  role in breast cancer promotion;  although it has protective benefit against estrogen dominance in most circumstances eg against endometrial cancer. As this column has previously reviewed, longterm experience of experts like Greenblatt & Gambrell, Gelfand,  Lee Vliet  in N America;   Schleyer-Saunders, Whitehead & Studd (London) , Burger & Davis (Australia) ; and Davies ea (Cape Town) showed no increase but reduction in all postmenopausal morbidity including cancer with  non-oral eg implants of BIDHRT (estradiol balanced  with human antiestrogen eg testosterone and/or progesterone).
                                                                                                                                                              Now Stephenson ea  at the Tyler Women’s Wellness Center, Texas publish a 3  year study showing multiple benefits and no adverse effects of balanced   compounded bioidentical transdermal hormone therapy BIDHRT on hemostatic, inflammatory, immune factors; cardiovascular biomarkers; quality-of-life measures in peri- and postmenopausal women. Conventional  nonhuman hormone therapy HT eg CEE and medroxyprogesterone results in increased thrombotic events, and an increased risk of breast cancer and dementia  in large prospective clinical trials including the HERS and the Women’s Health Initiative studies.  Physiologic human sex steroid therapy with transdermal delivery for peri/postmenopausal women may offer a different risk/benefit profile, yet long-term studies of this treatment model are lacking.  In a  prospective, approved closed-label study, 75  women who met strict inclusion/exclusion criteria were enrolled; following baseline hormone evaluation,  women received compounded transdermal bioidentical hormone therapy of BiEst (80%Estriol/20%Estradiol), and/or Progesterone to meet established physiologic reference ranges for the luteal phase.          Subjects receiving  BIDHRT in doses targeted to physiologic reference ranges administered in a daily dose showed significant favorable changes in  menopausal symptoms, cardiovascular biomarkers, inflammatory factors, immune signaling factors, and health outcomes, despite very high life stress, and home and work strain in study subjects. There were no associated adverse events. This model of care warrants consideration as an effective and safe clinical therapy for peri/postmenopausal women especially in populations with high perceived stress and a history of stressful life events prior to, or during the menopausal transition.
                                                                                                                                                              This Texas   study supports the 2009 metanalysis by Holtorf: The bioidentical hormone debate: are bioidentical hormones (estradiol, estriol, and progesterone) safer or more efficacious than commonly used synthetic versions in hormone replacement therapy?   Patients report greater satisfaction with HRTs that contain progesterone compared with those that contain a synthetic progestin. Bioidentical hormones have some distinctly different, potentially opposite, physiological effects compared with their synthetic counterparts, which have different chemical structures. Both physiological and clinical data have indicated that progesterone is associated with a diminished risk for breast cancer, compared with the increased risk associated with synthetic progestins. Estriol has some unique physiological effects, which differentiate it from estradiol, estrone, and CEE. Estriol would be expected to carry less risk for breast cancer, although no randomized controlled trials have been documented. Synthetic progestins have a variety of negative cardiovascular effects, which may be avoided with progesterone.  Physiological data and clinical outcomes demonstrate that bioidentical hormones are associated with lower risks, including the risk of breast cancer and cardiovascular disease, and are more efficacious than their synthetic and animal-derived counterparts. Until evidence is found to the contrary, bioidentical hormones remain the preferred method of HRT. 
                                                                                                                                                                          And of course the recent 4year Kronos KEEPS study by Harman ea 2012 confirms that in early postmenopausal woemen, parenteral physiological-dose  estradiol has subtle benefits over oral premarin, with or without  parenteral progesterone, with no significant adverse effect..                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  17 June 2013  SHOULD WE EVER TELL A PATIENT WITH A BREAST LUMP THAT IT’S CANCER?  or THAT IT MAYBE PRECANCER?  This was and is a  major dilemma in medicine. One of the big  lessons arising out of the high technology in living memory ie the past >century-our grandparents’ time-  is that before modern laboratory, imaging and surgical diagnostics, all we could do was wait and see, the trial of observation and therapy, prayer, meditation. Now we have gone to the other extreme in the aging,  bullying them to have risky invasive screening on the crass assumption that screening and early radical – invasive ie potentially  harmful-  treatment of silent ie precancer saves lives- when the evidence has become progressively clearer that unselective invasive screening of asymptomatic prostates and breasts simply creates worried well,  overdiagnoses silent disease which may never cause illness or death ,  and may hasten misery; whereas combining natural preventative remedies may benefit all systems  including regress cancer.
                                                                                                                                                             Silent hypertension and unrealised overweight/ metabolic syndrome  are radically different from cancer. With simple measurement  of asymptomatic arterial hypertension, visceral obesity and eg glycosuria, the earlier that risk factors are defined and addressed, and the earlier the adiposity/glycosuria/ hypertension corrected with lifestyle, abolishing smoking and boozing,  and diet improvements, supplements and if necessary the safest prescription drugs-  initially fish oil,  lowdose amiloretic and reserpine, metformin, and the basket of vitamins and minerals especially magnesium, zinc,  vits C and D3 –  the sooner is the progressive  risk  reversed to the heart, brain, mind, vision, lungs, digestive and excretory system, joints and legs, let alone to fertility, carcinogenesis and other immunoendocrine  functions                                                                                                                                                           So instead of driving well aging women witless with disease-mongering-  forced regular invasive xray screening mammography-  we should  instead respect the power of the mind over disease, and use simple careful history, and physiological  biometrics including behaviometrics to persuade and condition those at risk to take sensible precautions including if necessary supplements, exercise and corrective diet/psycho/hypnotherapy. The lesson of screening breasts and prostates for silent cancer  the past 20 years is that so many cases of silent dormant cancer regress spontaneously if left well alone, especially if they are left undiagnosed and instead just the score of common risk factors for  all common diseases addressed as this column keeps exploring. So when asymptomatic changes and lumps in breasts are detected by noninvasive means eg clinical or Sure Touch or thermal exam, there is no need to alarm the woman by labelling her a patient with breast disease – it is more than healing for her to show her that within a month, these changes can be reversed with  all the appropriate natural  steps as described in Combatting Breast Cancer , including the Magic Oils. If there were indeed (pre)malignant changes present, they too regress as normally happens in so many – so  leave well alone. As reviewed below,  up to  45% of apparently well adults who are killed  have silent cancers;    and in the giant ATLAS and aTTom trials in 37  countries the past decade (discussed in detail below), despite the claimed 80% cure rate of early silent  breast cancer (diagnosed at around 55yrs)  by 5 and 15 years after repeated screening mammography- surgery- and radiochemotherapy,  and annual screening mammography followup,   of the women who had died by age 70yrs and had autopsy, the similar 43% had (silent) recurrence of breast cancer. So  like men,  asymptomatic women should be discouraged from invasive screening; but the higher their risk score, the more readily they should be offered simple noninvasive breast screening, and thereby encouraged to optimize diet, habits, lifestyle, body build-fitness,  including with the battery of multibenefit preventative supplements . Like millions of partisans have sung in bitter wars and holocausts, Hirsh  Glik’s “Never Say that You Are Trodding the Final Path“- remains the hope-givimg mantra that all patients and caregivers  must hold to – the power of positive thought and action  if not prayer. Both mistakes and miracles happen.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 upate June 14 2013: a new review from Oxford University  Breast cancer mortality trends in England (1979-2009) and the assessment of the effectiveness of mammography screening concludes: In the Oxford region,  For all ages combined, mortality rates peaked for both underlying cause and mentions in 1985 and then started to decline, prior to the introduction of the NHSBSP in 1988.  There was no evidence that declines in mortality rates were consistently greater in women in age groups and cohorts that had been screened at all, or screened several times, than in other (unscreened) women, in the same time periods. Conclusions Mortality statistics do not show an effect of mammographic screening on population-based breast cancer mortality in England. update June 10 2013  a  review published today  by Coldman and Phillips on   Incidence of breast cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis after the initiation of a population-based mammography screening program   in Canada over 40years showed that ” the extent  of overdiagnosis of invasive cancer  was modest and primarily occurred among women  over the age of 60 years. However, overdiagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ was elevated  for all age groups.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    update 9 June 2013:    THE HARMFUL COERSIVE PRESSURE APPLIED ON WOMEN,  AND ON THEIR BREASTS, WITH SCREENING  XRAY  MAMMOGRAPHY:      Womens’ wishes must be respected when they  prefer no-xray no-squeeze prescreening, choose not to have xray mammography. Breast discomfort and breast trauma from xray mammography -breast sandwiching –   vary greatly between women and especially in young more hormonally-driven  breasts.. The pressure is manyfold:  not just in crushing the breasts, but in PTSD- post-traumatic stress disorder: Oxana Palesh & Cheryl Koopman report this month Breast cancer: PTSD—prevalent and persistent:  Receiving a diagnosis of breast cancer is likely to have aconsiderable impact on the psychological wellbeing of the patient. In a recent observational study, Vin-Raviv et al.1 reported that 23% of 1,139 women with newly diagnosed localized breast cancer experienced post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. This is not to deny that many women experience post-traumatic character growth, as a recent Greek study discusses.   Posttraumatic stress disorder and posttraumatic growth in breast cancer patients.  But Elklit and Blum and O’Connor ea in Denmark a year earlier highlight  PTSD   as being highly relevant in oncology settings after early breast cancer.. This awareness has been reviewed on Pubmed from before 1997. A recent report says the physical crushing force applied in such breast compression  – snackwiching –  is briefly up to about  130 Newtons, ie 13 kg or  25 pounds force.    This compares to the gentle 1.5 to 2kg force applied briefly when having a mechanical tactile Sure Touch surface breast anatomical mapping, or professional clinical breast exam; or zero force with a no-touch infrared thermomammogram. Hence some  women report breast pain, bruising and discomfort for weeks after a compression xray mammogram. And because oncologists insist on followup regular xray mammography after cancer therapy with breast-conserving surgery & radiochemotherapy, women increasingly ignore breast lumps let alone any screening breast exams at all. It is common cause that stress, anxiety  increase cortisol, insulin  and thus estrogenic stimulation, and thus cancer risk to  breasts.  It is still unknown how much the longterm risk of breast problems and cancer is increased from rupturing breast cells (let alone spreading cancer cells) with repeated successive compression xray mammography and the cumulative xray dose used – especially when perhaps 1 in 10 women screened is recalled  by radiologists for more compression views, to find (by biopsy of perhaps 10 to 20 women per 1000) the 2 to 4 clinically undetected tiny breast (pre)cancers in each 1000 women so screened preventatively… And it is obvious that with denser more active breasts in young women- monthly high-turnover glandular cells (especially in those on cyclic synthetic estrogen-progestin contraception) –  both breast fragility and sensitivity are higher the earlier that xray mammography is commenced as radiologists insist.

              Hence Regulators in most countries have reduced recommendations for routine screening mammography to starting at age >50yrs and stopping by 70-75years (ie 10-12 times on average through midlife); whereas Radiology Associations ignore the risks and still advise screening annually from age 40 years,  for life  –   ie at least THREE times as many times from age 40years. So women are doubly exposed to harmful pressure both in being bullied that they need screening xray mammography – the lie that  ” screening mammography saves lives”  when the benefit of this is unproven, and in being forced to undergo breast crushing repeatedly. A woman who recently attended for Sure Touch in Port Elizabeth   objected to having her breasts snackwiched again by compression mammography. The flippant analogy is eerie when one considers how such women are expected to attend annually to have their breasts both flattened and irradiated – and more so with cumulative frying after therapeutic radiotherapy. No wonder some end up with a hard breast. . So while the young at heart may   love nudging breasts-,  and massage  heals, (and Bissell and Fletcher at the Berkley lab show that gentle nudging with about 50 gm pressure knocks errant breast ductal cells back into healthy behaviour) –   crushing force and coersion do women harm, not good; in contrast to men where forceful digital massage may (also with putative risk) relieve the infected painful prostate.. .

And Gøtzsche   and Jørgensen in  .Cochrane Database Syst Rev. have Jun 4 published update stats against Screening for breast cancer with mammographyfrom  PubMed and the WHO ‘s International Clinical Trials Registry  (to November 2012).  Eight eligible trials  included 600,000 women  in the age range 39 to 74 years. Three trials with adequate randomisation did not show a statistically significant reduction in breast cancer mortality at 13 years (relative risk (RR) 0.90); four trials with suboptimal randomisation showed a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality with an RR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.83). The RR for all seven trials combined was 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87). We found that breast cancer mortality was an unreliable outcome that was biased in favour of screening, mainly from differential misclassification of cause of death. The trials with adequate randomisation did not find an effect of screening on total cancer mortality, including breast cancer, after 10 years (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.10) or on all-cause mortality after 13 years (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03).  Surgeries – Lumpectomies and mastectomies (RR 1.20-1.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.42) were significantly more in the screened groups . The use of radiotherapy was similarly increased whereas there was no difference in the use of chemotherapy.              AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONS: If we assume that screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 15% and that overdiagnosis and overtreatment is at 30%, it means that for every 2000 women invited for screening through 10 years, one will avoid dying of breast cancer and 10 healthy women, who would not have been diagnosed if there had not been screening, will be treated unnecessarily. Furthermore, more than 10%  will experience important psychological distress including anxiety and uncertainty for years because of false positive findings.        To help ensure that the women are fully informed before they decide whether or not to attend screening, we have an evidence-based lay  leaflet http://www.cochrane.dk. Because of substantial advances in treatment and greater breast cancer awareness since the trials, it is likely that the absolute effect of screening today is smaller than in the trials. Recent observational studies show more overdiagnosis than in the trials and very little or no reduction in the incidence of advanced cancers with screening”.                                                                                                              

update 26 May 2013  Apart from the strident promotion of preventative mastectomy by a film star,  reports the past week prompt review of :  why and whether  aggressive breast cancer may have doubled  in young women 25-39years old; and  it’s prevention by natural steps.

update 22 May 2013:   WHY DO SO MANY  WOMEN HAVE  RELAPSE OF BREAST CANCER BY 25 YEARS AFTER  DIAGNOSIS AND APPARENTLY CURATIVE TREATMENT OF EARLY SILENT BREAST CANCER?: three landmark new papers shine more light on why 43% of women who died by 15 years after aggressive treatment of  initial silent preclinical breast cancer had relapse/recurrence  of breast cancer at autopsy  – the  depressing result of the monumental 180 000 women-year  ATLAS trial:

Lisa Willis, Karen Page, Trevor Graham, Tomás Alarcón, Malcolm  Alison    & Ian  Tomlinson  from Universities of London, Oxford, Cambridge, and Barcelona  this month dissect  “What Can Be Learnt about Disease Progression in Breast Cancer Dormancy from Relapse Data?   why Breast cancer patients have an anomalously high rate of relapse up to 25 years  after apparently curative surgery removed the primary tumour. Disease progression during the intervening years between resection and relapse is poorly understood. There is evidence that the disease persists as dangerous, tiny metastases that remain at a growth restricted, clinically undetectable size until a transforming event restarts growth. This suggests a natural question and  a surprising answer: why are interesting trends in long-term relapse data not more commonly observed?”       But they are observed: another recent  15 year followup study, from Denmark (Grantzau ea), furthermore shows that DXRT after early breast cancer almost doubles the risk of radiotherapy-associated second cancer to 1:200 of women so treated..

       Thus at least dangerous dormant micrometastases, and the enormous cumulative  radiation exposure from both screening mammography over decades, and DXRT itself, will explain much of the 43% recurrence rate of breast cancer by 15 years (at autopsy in those who had died by then, at a  mean of only 70 years) seen in the ATLAS trial.

  These reports raise yet further doubts about the wisdom  of  regular mass xrayscreening of well breasts from age 50 years let alone 40years, and worse-  zealous major surgery and DXRT for preclinical disease, and then even worse, ongoing xray mammographic surveillance into old age.

      They point in the opposite direction:  that xray screening of well breasts should be avoided;  DXRT avoided in localized early breast cancer; and surveillance for breast cancer limited to the many available non-xray methods;

     and that women must be encouraged instead to maintain prevention with combination of safe natural (and multisystem-protecting)  means as discussed repeatedly in this column – lifestyle, diet, exercise, and massage and oral use of safe natural preventative supplements. Anticancer antiangiogenesis factors from our diet  are legion, include  cannabis, mushrooms, resveratrol, green tea, black rasberry  and Royal jelly. One would not recommend soya against breast cancr because of its phytoestrogen potential.

               Xradiation has been known for decades eg 1978   1990 to be both an angiogenic and an antiangiogenic factor in tumour growth angiogenesis (Judah Folkman 1971) . so it is  obviously a double-edged sword that should certainly not be used in the witchhunt for silent and usually irrelevant precancer in well breasts.

                   So we have the ludicrous situation reported today in JAMA  that despite all the evidence for 20 years now to stop or at least halve  mass xray screening and thus (over)treatment of silent early breast cancer, Physicians, Patients Not Following Advice From USPSTF on Mammography Screening: In 2009, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommended against routine screening mammography for women under 50 years and advised biennial rather than annual screening for women aged over 49yrs. But women and physicians ignored these recommendations.  A new study from Harvard  found that in 2005 to 2011, the percentage of women aged 40 to 49 years reporting that they had undergone mammography screening in the previous year was the same, about 47%. As for women aged 50 to 74 years, the percentage reporting mammography screening in the previous 12 months for each year analyzed also remained essentially the same, in the upper 50% range.”

        Update 21 April 2013FIFTEEN YEAR FOLLOWUP STUDIES OF BREAST CANCER AND ALLCAUSE  MORTALITY FROM MENOPAUSE ONWARDS:                                                                           Overall, long-term studies do not favour invasive breast screening or adjuvant therapy of early breast cancer,  but actually argue  against  early diagnosis and treatment of both silent breast and prostate  cancer.  Rather, the focus must be on safe natural prevention to reduce the occurrence of all common degenerative diseases of aging.

       It is instructive to juxtapose  the diverse 15 year followup studies in 14 countries (Nordic Cochrane- Gotzsche, Jorgensen ea) of women routinely xray- mammography screened or not, with the 15 year ATLAS study  (that ended in 2010)  reviewed below in 36 countries,  of women zealously xray- screened for early breast cancer, prompt  biopsies and surgical/  radiotherapy treatment- the majority mastectomy-  and then randomized to tamoxifen for up to  10 years. and it is reported by the ATLAS authors that there was a major breach of protocol - The protocol stated that 20 000 patients would need to be randomised in ATLAS and the other trials of tamoxifen duration to detect reliably an absolute difference of 2–3% in mortality. Entry to ATLAS was halted in 2005 (with 12 894 patients, including 6846 with ER-positive disease) because the MA.17 trial  showed benefit from continued endocrine treatment after 5 years of tamoxifen..   Yet the MA17 trial was with a different drug- letrozole;  and bizarely, the trial conclusion was that “the results from the analyses based on the Cox model with time-dependent covariates  were similar for letrozole and placebo.”  ie that letrozole was no better than placebo.. Thus, like the Womens’ Health Initiative misguided early termination,  it is unclear why MA17 was used as reason to terminate the ATLAS trial.
             The 15 year ATLAS results overall were depressing- in those originally early silent estrogen-receptor positive breast cancers, although only about 20% had clinical recurrence by a mean age of 70yrs, of the 22% who had died by then,  almost half ie 43% had recurrence of breast cancer at autopsy.              Many new such trials are under way.
             The aTTom trial  the UK arm of the ATLAS trial similarly “followed women with early breast cancer after initial treatment  for about 15 years:  it  randomly assigned 6934 women (39% ER-positive, 61% ER-untested) at the completion of 4 or more years of tamoxifen therapy to either 5 additional years of tamoxifen or cessation of tamoxifen therapy. With a median follow-up of 4.2 years, there was a slight, non-significant advantage for the 10-year tamoxifen arm (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.81–1.09; P = .4). Thus, the optimal duration of therapy is not known, but it is at least 5 years”. For undisclosed reasons this trial has apparently  never been published in full although it was first reported in 2008- this raises the usual question by eg Booth and Tannock 2008  of bias against negative results, whether there was suppression by sponsors…  And the aTTom trial design was heavily criticised at the outset in 1996.
                The meta-analysis published the past week by Heidi Nelson ea for the USPSTF  confirms the ATLAS study, showed that tamoxifen/ raloxifen for 5 years reduced absolute mortality from breast cancer by about 0.16% per year. Neither reduced breast cancer-specific or all-cause mortality rates. Both reduced the incidence of fractures, but tamoxifen increased the incidence of thromboembolic events more than raloxifene by 4 cases in 1000 women. Tamoxifen increased the incidence of endometrial cancer and cataracts compared with placebo and raloxifene. Trials provided limited and heterogeneous data on medication adherence and persistence. Many women do not take tamoxifen because of associated harms.
         It then becomes apparent  that  having early breast cancer detected – without the adverse risk factors of xray mammography of repeated breast crushing, radiation,  biopsies and overtreatement,                             but with better application of safe preventative measures including vitamin D3, melatonin, metformin, iodine, DMSO, coconut oil,  fish oil, sutherlandia, I3C/DIM, vitamins and minerals                  – while women will live healthy longer,  few women  (perhaps <5% of all deaths) will die of breast cancer.  The common risk factors (for all common premature disease and deaths) are  m   anaged with the same basket of safe natural effective preventatives including supplements like appropriate balanced hormone replacement -that this column addresses.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
Dr.  Northrup says “[Gilbert Welch] pointed to a study [from] way back, of women who died in car accidents in their 40s. They sectioned their breast tissues and found that 40 percent of them – this is normal healthy women dying in car accidents – had evidence of ductal carcinoma in situ that was never going to go anywhere. This is the big dilemma,” .   Welch and Black 1997 reported Among seven autopsy series of women not known to have had breast cancer during life, the median prevalence of invasive breast cancer was 1.3% (range, 0% to 1.8%) and the median prevalence of DCIS was 8.9% (range, 0% to 14.7%). Prevalences were higher among women likely to have been screened (that is, women 40 to 70 years of age).

     Erbas ea at Univ Melbourne studied all sources for the prevalence of ductal carcinoma in situ. “The reported prevalence of undiagnosed DCIS in autopsy studies, of approximately 9%, has been used to suggest a larger reservoir of DCIS may exist in the population”.

      Update 18 April 2013:  a  new study from  Italy   graphically illustrates the lower sensitivity of xray screening – U/S ie  ultrasound picked up ‘significantly’ more tiny asymptomatic breast cancers  missed in 22,131  women with negative mammography.  “The overall U/S detection was 0.185%, but 0.55% with previous cancer vs 0.145% in women without cancer history (p = 0.0004),  0.22% in dense breasts (p = 0.17) vs .156% in fatty breasts. The U/S- generated invasive assessment was 0.19%  The benign to malignant open surgical biopsy ratio was  thus 0.17.”  This is likely more overdiagnosis unless the women simply apply the preventative measures recommended below.

             But while no screening method can diagnose cancer (only invasive biopsy can), and none can guarantee there arnt cancer cells busy germinating especially if stirred up by severe anxiety,  radiation, crushing, biopsy etc, Sure Touch mapping is more accurate than even U/S for  reassuring while reducing referral rate for U/S.

UPDATE 14 APRIL 2013: Because of the evidence the past score years set out below  that xray screening actually does more harm than good, integrative  medical clinics world wide do not promote xray screening mammography. But such clinics including in Cape Town generally offer regular safe and lower-cost  anatomical eg Sure Touch mechanical tactile if not ultrasound or MRI, and physiological no-touch eg thermography ie bloodflow studies,  –  for those who need peace of mind. Some women choose to alternate Sure Touch and thermomammography.

     While only 1 in 200 women have the familial gene risk,  the majority of older women have  the common multiple risk factors eg longevity, estrogenic and heavy metal pollution, stress, overweight density, smoking, alcohol; and  there are many simple remedies described in these  columns that can reverse most of the risk factors – not just of even genetic breast cancer and increasing overweight,  but of all the major diseases of aging.

The problem remains the stubbornness of third party payers including governments to listen to both the evidence and to womens’ wishes, and pay for such safe, cheaper and arguably more accurate prscreening than crush xray mammography, if any is desired or desirable .

Dr Johnnie Ham MD MSc MBA Californian ObGyn discusses why xray screening mammography and aggressive medical assault on  well breasts- the witchhunt for the pot of hidden gold,  silent preclinical breast cancer –  is a giant  con by the  for-profit high-tech medical goliath  industry   terrorizing and mutilating  naive women.

Governments -WHO  silence on harms of screening mammography : What is tragicomedy is that worldwide, government Regulators seem to be standing silently firm, not saying a word about the harm likely exceeding the medical benefit- the screening and cancer  industry is far too profitable in jobs, taxes and votes. Search on the internet for Government warnings on harms of screening mammography does not yield a word of warning. Regulators and Medical Schemes piously promote quality screening, but say nothing about the harms versus benefits. The FDA still promotes annual screening mammography  on line without a word about the risks and harms of mammography; others like the UK NHS promote it every 2 to 3 years.    Yet the US Senate is actually considering a Republican Act to promote more xray breast imaging.

UPDATE 12 April 2013  The Wiki entry on breast cancer prognosis says now: “One result of media hype- breast cancer’s high visibility -(compared to other cancers in eg men, and other common major diseases) is that statistics may be misinterpreted, such as the claim that breast cancer will be diagnosed in one in eight women during their lives—a claim that depends on the unrealistic assumption that no woman will die of any other disease before the age of 95.[132] This obscures reality that about ten more women will die from heart disease or stroke than from breast cancer.[133]The emphasis on breast cancer screening may be harming women by subjecting them to unnecessary radiation, biopsies, and surgery. One-third of diagnosed breast cancers might recede on their own.[134] Screening mammography efficiently finds non-life-threatening, asymptomatic breast cancers and pre-cancers, even while overlooking serious cancers. According to Prof Gilbert Welch of  Dartmouth Institute, research on screening mammography has taken the “brain-dead approach that says the best test is the one that finds the most cancers” rather than the one that finds dangerous cancers.[134]

The latest  report  Lancet 2011) on the Relevance of breast cancer hormone receptors and other factors to efficacy of Tamoxifen protection after breast cancer looked at 20 trials (n=21,457) in early breast cancer . In oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease, about 5 years of tamoxifen halved recurrence rates throughout the first 10 years but  no further gain or loss after year 10; risk was approximately independent of progesterone receptor status (or level), age, nodal status, or use of chemotherapy. Breast cancer mortality was reduced by about a third throughout the first 15 years. Overall non-breast-cancer mortality was little affected, despite small absolute increases in thromboembolic and uterine cancer mortality (both only in women older than 55 years), so all-cause mortality was substantially reduced. In ER-negative disease, tamoxifen had little or no effect on breast cancer recurrence or mortality.

       This is not surprising as tamoxifen like  all synthetic  sex hormones  /blockers has  a long list of adverse effects on bone, brain, cardiovascular, bladder, mood, immunity, body weight and metabolism,  womb etc.

But the Oxford UK-led (Davies ea)  landmark monumental  ATLAS trial (2012)  from 1996 -2010 in 36 countries and 180 000 women-years (mean presentation  age mid 50s, ER+ breast cancer about 1 cm size,   2/3 had mastectomy – which is now known to increase mortality) showed that after 6846 women taking tamoxifen  for up to 10 years, at about 15 years from diagnosis, tamoxifen in absolute terms  was only marginal benefit- marginally reduced the risk for breast cancer recurrence, compared with stopping tamoxifen (617 vs 711; P = .002), reduced breast cancer mortality  relatively by 8% (331 vs 397 deaths; P = .01) but that’s only about 1% in absolute terms, and reduced overall mortality by 10% (639 vs 722 deaths; P = .01). Over all, approximately 1/5 clinically relapsed,  1/7 deaths were from breast  cancer; but of those who died, webfigures 4a and 4b of  the supplementary appendix   of the main ATLAS  report showed that at autopsy almost half  (43%) indeed had recurrent breast cancer. This gives the lie to early screening and treatment-  15 years later, even with tamoxifen for  10 years, early xray mammography detection and conventional surgical-radio-chemotherapy treatment does not cure much more than half of women with preclinical ER+  breast cancer that screening detects.The risk for recurrence by year 15 was 21.4% in the continuers group and 25.1% in the control group. ie only 3.7% absolute reduction. In addition, breast cancer mortality by year 15 was significantly reduced by nearly 3%; it was 12.2% in the continuers group and 15.0% in the control group. ie only 2.8% absolute reduction. Thus even in these women with early breast cancer, the cure rate even with tamoxifen was poor- slight reduction in the 25% recurrence  and 15% breast cancer mortality rates. But almost  half of the women who died had recurrence.  Once again, the actual results published 4 months ago in the final Lancet report were much less impressive than the media release published 5 days later. Of these >6000 women allocated after initial surgery/ radio/chemotherapy to the tamoxifen or placebo  trial, 85% did not die of breast cancer. But the cure rate was at best still only about 75%, and only  half of those who died -by a mean of age 70 years – of any  causes were free of breast cancer.

11 April 2013  the SA Menopause Society Menopause Matters today  also features The Great Mammography Debate- concluding “The point being that the treatments of breast cancer are not benign and need to be drawn into the calculations when assessing the harms of screening mammography. If these treatments are carried out on a significant number of people who are not in danger of being harmed by their breast cancer in the first place (those over-diagnosed) then the scales of benefit versus harm from routine mammography may well tip in favour of harm. If so it may be unwise or even unethical to recommend screening by mammography.”

9 April 2013  Robert Stern at University of Arizona writes that “xray mammography alone is not a very good screening modality and has strikingly variable false positive, false negative, specificity, and efficacy rates, depending on what you read and who you believe.

   Worldwide, the days of simple repetitive yearly/ biannual mammograms for every living woman over some arbitrary age may be over soon.. breast cancer screening is about to evolve into a personalized, patient-centered program. It means you can’t just  order a mammogram when a  flag pops up saying it’s time.  It means understanding fairly complex risk stratification, the indications for these new technologies, and the clinical context for various imaging strategies”, mostly still based on irradiation;  as detailed in the American Medical Journal by Drukteinis ea at the Florida Mofitt Cancer Centre ..

8 April 2013: UPDATE:  see  vitamin D3 and Breast Cancer.

JAMA publishes on line from University Basel  Switzerland,   Shaw and Elger’s viewpoint on Evidence-Based Persuasionoften  an ethical imperative to  forcefully guide a hesitant patient into what seems to be the best decision, using arguments from Removal of Bias to Recommending Options and occasionally even Creating New Biases.      The eternal problem remains, what is truly right? Is mass flu vaccine right? Is screening xray  mammography truly lifesaving? especially if one quotes impressive but misleading relative risk reduction rather than in fact the crucial trivial absolute reduction?  Is Directive Counselling however well-meant exercising undue influence? They conclude that it  is an essential part of modern medical practice, without which it may be impossible to respect patients’ autonomy. Such necessary persuasion needs to meet 6 criteria.

A month ago BCAction held a webinar reported by Manie Clark

updating the risks and futility of screening xray mammography.

24 Mar 2013. THE COVERUP OF HARMS AND FUTILITY OF XRAY BREAST SCREENING CONTINUES IN USA Many opinions from around the world in recent NEJMs say it all about screening mammography:  most are subjective, emotive. There is no impartial objective evidence to support the gold standard xray mammography at all (except arguably  in cases of obvious cancer- when biopsy, and MRI scan is better and safer).   When there are acceptable prescreenings that do no harm and when combined,  give good sensitivity and specificity eg any two of  mechanical tactile imaging, thermomammography, breast ultrasound and (if affordable) MRI.
         Karla Kerlikowske ea  co-author already four peer-reviewed Pubmed-listed studies on xray  mammography this year..  the latest on screening well women from the  Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium asks: Screening Outcomes in Older US Women Undergoing Multiple Mammograms in Community Practice: Does Interval, Age, or Comorbidity Score Affect Tumor Characteristics or False Positive Rates?Uncertainty exists about appropriate use of screening mammography among older women because comorbid illnesses may diminish the benefit of screening. We examined the risks from 1999 to  2006 on 140000  women aged 66 to 89 years at study entry undergoing mammo     . About 7% had  breast cancer,  in a data linkage between the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium and Medicare claims.  Cumulative probability of a false-positive mammo result was higher among annual screeners than biennial screeners irrespective of comorbidity: 48% of annual screeners aged 66 to 74 years had a false-positive result compared with 29% of biennial screeners. These women  who undergo biennial screening mammo had similar risk of advanced-stage disease and lower cumulative risk of a false-positive recommendation than annual screeners, regardless of comorbidity.
But their abstract abysmally fails to ask and answer the obviously far more important question:  – did screening mammo  give any  significantly lower mortality, surgery   or  radiotherapy at 15 or 20year followup compared to a matched  randomly selected cohort not screened over the same period, or compared to women who were screened only once at the outset??
   All independent studies show that women regularly screened by xray mammogram  do no better and sustain far more harms, in fact may die sooner than those not screened. Why did they not say this in their abstract, that xray mammo screening is unethical abusive harmful exploitation of women?
    The BCSC website registers over 8million screening mammograms done there 1996-2009 – 24% of women had 5 or more xray screens- ` yet similarly  fails to mention the crucial harms and mortality data in screened versus unscreened women.  The reason is obvious:  admitting the truth, that xray screening mammo is not only futile but harmful, would kill what must now be a $10billion a year   industry in USA for xray manufacturers, radiologists, breast surgeons, hospitals, medical schemes, oncologists and Big Pharma in the Find a Hidden  Breast Cancer Conspiracy against older women. . Indeed, the endgame would be that lawyers will swarm to call on women to sue the Breast Cancer Industry for wrongful assault.
23 Mar 2013  Dr Enza Ferreri is a London-based  Italian journalist philosopher of science, christian human and animal  rights activist, including saving  Britain from an Islamist President Charles Windsor.. She yesterday wrote a devastating critique of screening xray mammography, its profiteering  oversell by  Scandinavian and English-speaking governments’ propaganda that omit  to explain all the risks and lack of benefits. “On one side you have the stories about women whose ” life  was saved” by breast screening, on the other  women whose life was made hell by discovery of a possibly benign DCIS, and those who endure a nightmare of false positives believing that she has breast cancer when she hasn’t. “
22 Mar 2013 Even this month’s  European Radiology Congress, and the South African Menopause Society  SAMS newsletter Menopause Matters, and the Annals of Family Medicine - a new Copenhagen study- now question  screening xray mammography, including cumulative radiation damage to heart and lungs; and chronic psychological trauma from false positive reports.
False-positive findings on screening mammography causes long-term psychosocial harm: 3 years after a false-positive finding, women experience psychosocial consequences that range between those experienced by women  with a normal mammogram and those with a diagnosis of breast cancer. Not even a “positive” breast biopsy is a guarantee that it is cancer that needs treatment -apparently 4% of breast biopsies may be misread. so 2nd opinions are advised.
     the  SAMS author says: ”   the fundamental question  is “Does screening for cancer improve length or quality of life?”  The latest arguments from the UK ask if screening saves lives, if you take all causes of death into account (Baum BMJ 2013;346:f385).  Firstly, the author accepts that screening saves lives. If 10 000 women are screened for a decade then 4 deaths will be avoided. As treatments improve as they are doing all the time, then deaths avoided become lower, maybe 2 per 10 000 in the near future and thus screening becomes less valuable… current data about survival need to be used when making calculations about prolonging life.
     Secondly, overdiagnosis is important because if some women who do not have life-threatening disease are treated, they may die from the treatment. Mastectomy, radiation, chemo- or endocrine therapy are not trivial treatments. Surgery carries anaesthetic and sepsis possibilities, especially in obese patients.   Radiation is not without its risks, raising the incidence of ischaemic heart disease 27%  and of lung cancer 78%. These risks would be worth taking if there were no cases of overdiagnosis – but there are – somewhere between 10% and 50% -so any lives saved may be cancelled out by deaths caused.     So with all-cause mortality no longer showing benefit, it devolves to other factors such as the positive peace of mind screening provides or the negative over-investigation of false positives to sway decisions for or against screening. No wonder the editor of the BMJ (26th January 2013) asks “At what stage must we seriously consider whether this screening is a good use of £96m of  NHS budget?”  So how should we advise our patients? The statistics show the “lives saved” argument is neutralized. The cost of screening, time involved and morbidity from false positive tests are all non-fatal harms so these have to be weighed against  peace of mind of a negative result and these calculations are in the mind of the beholder.     The parallels with prostate specific antigen screening are uncanny and PSA testing is rapidly falling into disfavour or even disrepute. It seems those with vested interests are those promoting mammography screening. The moral position of doctors is becoming increasingly complex – can it be correct to say mammography screening in low-risk women is “the right thing to do”?
16 Mar 2013   Recently Bateman in Cape Town suggests  “PinkDrive intervention ‘over-rated’ : Breast health professionals are questioning the life-saving impact of the high profile non-profit breast cancer organisation PinkDrive.
      The Pink Drive website opens with some  fallacies eg  that:                                         xray mammo 23kg breast compression causes no pain or damage – wrong; that     It is a tool to diagnose breast cancer“-      wrong-only  histology does; and that diagnostic breast irradiation is no risk after age 40years ;  wrong- this column has quoted authoritative opinion and research eg Lemay,  Sherbrooke Univ 2011  to the contrary, the linear no-threshold model, although Mina Bissell’s  Berkley Lab 2011 research paper perhaps contradicts this – the jury is still out . .
          It is significant that of the seven Platinum Pink Drive sponsors, two are private Hospital chains with  major vested interest in the Breast Cancer Surgery and Reconstruction  Industry.
Contrary to the Pink Drive website stating  that mammograms diagnose breast cancer, a major new  study from Japan on xray mammography of almost 120000 women found histological cancer in 0.22% of those  who underwent mammography alone, 0.37% of those who underwent ultrasonography alone, and 0.5% of the 974 participants who underwent both mammography and ultrasonography. Recall rate due to mammographic abnormalities was 4.9% for women screened only with mammography and 2.6% for those screened with both modalities. The cancer detection rate was 0.22% for women screened only with mammography  and 0.31% for those screened with both modalities. Their conclusion that It is possible to reduce the recall rate in screening mammography by combining mammography and ultrasonography for breast screening is precisely the point, that  hazardous xray mammography screening with its immediate and  longterm risks is not needed when any two of the three well-tested lowcost zero-risk portable facilities are available eg Sure Touch Mechanical Tactile imaging, thermomammgraphy, and ultrasound, and two  combined give high sensitivity and specificity.
Neither of the above new abstracts raised the issue of overdiagnosis or longterm hazards.. In fact the NCI Nat Cancer Institute Journal itself published a study this month  from San Fran  University California showing that  in 140 000  women from 66years upward screened  between 1999 and 2006, Cumulative probability of a false-positive mammography result was higher among annual screeners than biennial screeners irrespective of comorbidity: 48%  of annual screeners aged 66 to 74 years had a false-positive result compared with 29%  of biennial screeners. Women aged 66 to 89 years who undergo biennial screening mammography have similar risk of advanced-stage disease and lower cumulative risk of a false-positive recommendation than annual screeners, regardless of comorbidity. Thus  even cancer comes and go. Reducing xray screening  in USA   to every second year reduced the frequency of false positive recall – overdiagnosis – from almost half – 48% – by above one third, without increase in advanced cancer.
A Comparative Table shows the many methods, procedures  for objective breast imaging (mammography) available.  Of the established procedures  it lacks only comparison with the gold standard- the oldest ie  manual clinical examination-  and with forty year old Infrared Thermography. As this column has stressed previously, mammography is not a patented word for xray breast imaging, it is simply a generic description of breast (mammo-) and image (-gram) . Any image of the breast is thus a mammo-gram, and the process is mammo-graphy.SCREENING METHODS COMPARATIVE TABLE:                   this table shows the relative merits of some different methods of breast imaging. Mechanical Tactile Sure Touch Imaging leads the field  for combined sensitivity and specificity, portability, all-age utility without problems of breast density interference, cost, risks and reproducible mapping. Like a photograph, a  plaster or other cast of the bust would thus also be a mammogram image- and unlike plastic surgeons,  dermatologists and thermographers, other health professionals and patients alike too often forget to record a photograph to compare changes in the skin and breast serially. .
NEJM 28 Feb from Harvard, Adler and Colbert’s  “Mammography Screening Poll Results”  is a sobering commentary  on the health professionals’ wrong perceptions about routine X-ray mammography screening of all well breasts from midlife. What do readers say about the indisputable overwhelming independent evidence against routine X-ray screening mammography?
One has to question  the rationality of most NEJM readers – surprisingly few in total – who responded to the poll after Bleyer and Welch’s  , Mette Kalager’s  , Baum, Jorgensen and Gotzsche’s publications last year, that the majority of NEJM readers polled still  promote X-ray screening despite the hard evidence, the absence of benefit from screening irradiation of well breasts- significant reduction in mortality in such women – in the face of multiple hazards of such screening.
The risks, the  list of hazards – in five broad categories – is so great that as pointed out below last month, not even the NCI National Cancer Institute itself any longer clearly  promotes routine  X-ray mammography screening. As Colbert and Adler and the 2nd Canadian mammography trial 20 yrs ago noted (Miller and Baines) , the evidence for presymptomatic screening X-ray mammo is no better than clinical digital exam. Early diagnosis of silent  breast precancer by xray screening and biopsy does not save lives, it is a vast waste of money except for the career Breast Industry, that has been characterized as  terrorizing and damaging gullible submissive women (Winifred Cutler, Athena Inst).

There are certainly many safe natural ways we  reviewed recently of  reversing the  risks of breast  proliferation and cancer, thus justifying periodic safe low cost breast screening  – mammo-imaging – by independent  eg digital, mechanical tactile  ” Sure Touch ” , ultrasound and/ or thermo- means.26 Feb 2013. There is a flood of new progress against breast disease , breast cancer and  xray screening mammography: Contrary to  the for-profit Breast industry,  like all independent authorities including the Cancer Association of South Africa CANSA , the National Cancer Institute of America in 2013 no longer recommends routine xray mammography   screening-          it rates  the EVIDENCE on X-ray screening mammography          as FAIR evidence for its sole and arguable benefit –  Decrease in total and breast cancer mortality –        -*Consistency of studies is only Fair. External Validity: Good.  Internal Validity: Variable,.           But as GOOD evidence for the FIVE major  HARMS of  xray  screening    -* both  consistency, internal & external validity -are good -

  • Discomfort if not cellular rupture and bruising from violent 23 kg 50 lb crushing,
  • Overdiagnosis and Resulting Treatment – including mastectomy or radiochemotherapy- of Insignificant Cancers:
  • False-Positives with Additional Testing and Anxiety.
  • False-Negatives with False senseof Security and Potential Delay in Cancer Diagnosis.
  • Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer.

Winifred Cutler’s Athena Institute  team warns again that screening X-ray mammography on well women is dangerous , inflicts terror,  it does not reduce but may worsen the occurrence of invasive breast cancer. The  Berkeley  Institute’s  Dr Venugopalan  under profs Mina Bissell and Daniel Fletcher  show that simply gentle massage  helps – Compressing Breast Cancer Cells Can Stop Out-of-Control Growth  Shelley Hwang ea show that in California simple lumpectomy for early breast cancer reduced deaths (up to 2009) by 28% compared to mastectomy. Belinski & Boyages at the  Westmead Centre in Australia show again that common very low vitamin D levels more than double the risk of breast cancer let alone colon and all other cancers. A  Harvard team (Liu ea) has just shown that the carnage of legalized poisoning (smoking  – lungcancer, vascular;  alcohol -liver disease, violence;  adulteration with refined sugar/fructose - diabetes, vascular disease, cancer)  aside,  breast cancer far outstrips the other common cancers (colon, prostate cancer) in  preventible  life years lost. Willaims ea show again the major benefit of metformin against lethal breast cancer. Amadou ea in France confirm again the strong  link between abdominal obesity and breast cancer from childhood throughout life. This again highlights the criminal stupidity of delaying metformin use till obesity let alone infertility or diabetes are established. Metformin can safely be introduced at any stage of life provided it is started at very low dose eg below 250mg/day and cautiously titrated to the maximum well-tolerated dose to avoid nausea and diarrhoea- and temporarily halved or stopped in case of intercurrent gastrointestinal upset. . Grani et al from Rome, Italy    and many others remind us that both thyroid and breast malfunction are common by middle age and need to be sought and managed together.    We know that in most aging populations, deleterious deficiency of especially  magnesium, iodine, selenium, sulphur, and  vits B, C, D and K , and melatonin and sex hormones is very common along with crippling multitoxic carcinogenic overload. So it is logical to use multisupplements, and massage anti- inflammatory anti-cancer antioxidant  chelating antiestrogenic deep – penetrating iodine, coconut oil and DMSO – into the breasts as multidisease prevention and part of treatment. Oz ea in Turkey show that DMSO is  more effective against breast cancer than thalidomide.  But more importantly, DMSO enhances transport of any anticancer  agents into cancer cells. Already in 2008 Frederick ea showed that Lugol’s Iodine is an important antiestrogen adjuvant against breast cancer. Hence we advise  the harmless combination of natural multisystem micronutrients- especially  fish oil, coconut oil, DMSO,   vitamin C, D, K, melatonin, metformin, selenium, Lugol’s iodine and appropriate progesterone/ testosterone/ DHEA  – as nutrient supplements against all chronic aging diseases especially in women at risk of breast cancer.  . At Univ  Newcastle on Tyne,   Dr Dorota Overbeck-Zubrzycka’s  landmark  PhD  thesis just published on    FOXP3 regulates metastatic spread of breast cancer via control of expression of CXCR4 chemokine receptor promises new gene therapy in future. and her parallel study with Harvey,  A. Griffiths & C. Griffith,  Randomised control trial of Breast Tactile Imaging as an assessment tool for diagnosis of breast lumps in 2009/10 is now being published in full in a leading UK journal, validating this ( Sure Touch) bedside and outpatient clinic procedure as an established no-risk screening procedure, objective breast mapping  record for anxious women as shown in USA, Indian and Chinese studies. Thus increasingly Authorities are accepting that screening X-ray mammography harms far outweigh trivial if any improvement in survival. But screening – by eg regular clinical exam and mechanical tactile mapping –  for early signs of breast degeneration allows gentle safe self – treatment of all multisystem diseases that reverses both the breast degeneration and multisystem risk factors.

4 Feb 2013 UPDATE: BREAST SCREENING: Time lag to benefit after screening for common internal problems:   routine high-tech mass screening is inappropriate insurance.
a lot of the prestigious British Medical Journal last issue of 23 January 2013 is dedicated to the Breast Screening controversy; with a number of critics questioning the November 2012 Government  (Marmot) whitewash of the gigantically costly- and risky- NHS  screening mammography program. Professor Michael Baum of London University in particular has argued against this process for the past decade, after being the lead UK breast surgeon to set up this program in the 1990s and realizing it’s folly and risks.

Editorial: Breast cancer screening: what does the future hold?

BMJ 2013; 346 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f87  Cite this as: BMJ 2013;346:f8    Cliona C Kirwan, National Institute for Health Research clinician scientist in surgical oncology          :  “Overdiagnosis remains a problem; quantifying its effects and minimising its impact are priorities.
The role of national breast screening programs and the quality and transparency of information given to participating women are increasingly the subject of heated debate. In the past 12 months alone, the BMJ, the Lancet, and the New England Journal of Medicine have published 24 articles debating the value of breast cancer screening. After calls for an impartial review of the value of breast screening in the United Kingdom, the findings of an independent panel of experts, led by Professor Marmot, were published in November 2012.1 Currently in the UK, women aged 50-70 years are invited for screening every three years; 2.3 million women were invited during 2010-11. The rate of uptake currently stands at 73.4%, having steadily increased in the past decade.2 The primary aim of screening is to reduce mortality from breast cancer. Reduced breast cancer related mortality is balanced against the cost of screening in terms of physical and psychological harm to women and the financial impact on health services. Much recent debate has concerned overdiagnosis—that is, diagnosis of a condition that would never cause symptoms or death during a patient’s lifetime. Although over-investigation can cause harm (pain and anxiety from mammography and biopsies), this is usually …”

Personal View     Harms from breast cancer screening outweigh benefits if death caused by treatment is included : Prof Michael Baum

BMJ 2013; 346 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f385 (Published 23 January 2013)      Cite this as: BMJ 2013;346:f385

13 Jan  2013   As this column has long noted, routine high-tech mass screening is inappropriate insurance/prevention. Contrary to the gospel of the American Radiology, Breast and endoscopy costly screening industry,  and Curves International,  no human  survives   for  > 10 000 years to benefit from routine hightech screening  to avoid premature disease and death ie ‘save a life’ . . There is still grave doubt about the risk:benefit of routine prostate screening in the well.
A new January 2013 BMJ paper by a California University team Lee et al    looks at  ‘noninvasive’ cancer  screening of  breast (xray mammography) and colon (testing stool for occult blood)   in Europe and USA.  It found that  at least 1000 patients must be screened for at least 10 years – ie >10 000 patient-years of screening- before screening for either cancer could be claimed to save  a life. The corollary is that such screening of the well has a very low  chance – below 1:10 000 in any year, ie  0.01%  –  of finding a silent killer cancer that will save/  extend a life.

Thus they advise against screening people with an expected lifespan of below about 10 years.   But who would undergo such bothersome risky screening even over 10  years for a proposed benefit  (in death risk reduction)  of 0.1% a decade ? They found the reasons against routine screening of those not at high risk ( ie no suspicious personal symptoms or familial history) are as usual   those of the ensuing anxiety, the  procedures – radiation and colonoscopy and biopsies – and overdiagnosis. The worst is of course the cumulative risk of breast irradiation, and perforation death from colonoscopy:        “For cancer screening,  about one in 10 patients who are screened (with xray mammography , or with fecal occult blood testing) will have a false positive result,  leading to recall worry and likely biopsy/  colonoscopy.  Serious complications (such as perforation, major bleeding, and death) occur in 3.1 colonoscopies per 1000 screened.  One in 100 routinely mammography-screened  women will be  biopsied, and one in 1000 will be subject to overdiagnosis (that is, diagnosed with a breast cancer that was unlikely to have been clinically evident during their lifetime) and possibly unnecessary treatment.”

The same arguments apply strongly against routine screening of men for prostate cancer, or smokers for lung cancer,  in the absence of symptoms. . It should be noted that even the Wikipedia Mammography review now strongly highlights the arguments against mass screening mammography. The introduction sums it up bluntly: “task force reports point out that in addition to unnecessary surgery and anxiety, the risks of more frequent mammograms include a small but significant increase in breast cancer induced by radiation.[3][4] The Cochrane Collaboration (2011) concluded that mammograms reduce mortality from breast cancer by an absolute amount of 0.05% or a relative amount of 15%, but also result in unnecessary surgery and anxiety, resulting in their view that it is not clear whether mammography screening does more good or harm.[5] They thus state that universal screening may not be reasonable.[6]     Mammography has a false-negative (missed cancer) rate of at least 10 percent. This is partly due to dense tissues obscuring the cancer and the fact that the appearance of cancer on mammograms has a large overlap with the appearance of normal tissues. A meta-analysis review of programs in countries with organized screening found 52% over-diagnosis.[6]

It can be argued that noninvasive screeing that finds suspicious premalignant signs can then motivate prevention by natural means- lifestyle diet and appropriate supplements. But since these preventative steps (including blood-pressure and waist/breast  girth measurements and monthly self-exam for breast changes)    hugely  reduce the risks of all serious  acute and  chronic diseases, accidents and premature disability and death, routine mass screening for common ‘silent’  internal cancers eg breast, prostate  colon lung womb and ovary , is irrelevant, risky and huge waste of resources for no benefit. Not applying sensible diet,  lifestyle, blood-pressure checks   and supplements is like failing to maintain  your car, house, computers and electrical appliances etc , until  these  crucial assets  break  down. The evidence against hightech screening of the well of course does not  stop the anxious well  from worrying. As a heavy cigarette-smoking prof  of lung medicine  said 30 years ago, if an anxious patient demands a scope despite reassurance that the risk:benefit doesnt justify it, it is wise to do it.  Or someone else will. At least in the context of the younger adult who will thereby be more motivated to apply prevention, non-xray non-invasive screening by eg Sure Touch breast mapping- from onset of menopause, or younger  in eg diabetics   and others more prone to cancer eg in AIDS,  – and ultrasound quantitative bone-density risk measurement  from toddlers upwards , in exercising ie sportspeople,  and in any serious chronic disease especially with hormone overtones  eg thyroid,  diabetes, COPD/ asthma, cancer, arthritis, paralysis, AIDS,TB, cardiacs, renal, liver disease –  are relatively low cost  and safe compared to the traditional  xray screening procedures. The brilliant new French movie The Intouchables is all about choices  of lifestyle and the risks entailed.  Thats what screening, and voluntary prevention, are about.  No  adult  should be pressurized – by vested interests –  into having hightech eg xray (breast, bone)  or more invasive (eg scope, biopsy) screening without understandable explanation of the possible  although  infrequent immediate and distant risks,  and remote if any  benefits. Only the frequent  incidental unexpected screening discovery of hypertension,  increased breast lumpiness/density,  and low bone density, and initiation of simple lifestyle diet changes  and safe supplement  therapy- the below- listed scores of supplements against all common degenerative diseases  (and if needed the best primary antihypertensive  – lowdose reserpine and co-amilozide – costs perhaps  $1  a month to control  most; and simple (breasts, arthritis, wound   or elsewhere)  antiinflammatory  self massage if indicated with Lugol’s iodine, and analgesic antioxidant coconut oil and DMSO),  gives huge early and permanent preventative  pain and inflammatory benefits without risks.  There are also  promising studies on Pubmed between 1989 and 2011 of the benefits of DMSO in management of prostate problems in rats, and humans for transrectal procedures  and intravenously as cancer adjuvant palliation. DMSO-MSM is cheaply and safely available . It comes back to basics that are anathema to politicians,  Government, profiteers, Big Business Pharma and the Disease Industry.  Motivating and enforcing better lifestyle and natural diet (minimizing sugar , aspartame, alcohol, processed food especially cornstarch) , and healthgiving realistic doses of supplements – vits (all –  especially B, C,  D3 and K), minerals  (especially Mg, Zn, I2, Se, P, Bo,) and biological (plant  and sealife – not land animal) extracts,  (including fish oil, metformin, bioidentical human hormones, tryptophan, MSM, DMSO, chondroglucosamine,  coconut oil, cinnamon, pepper, curcumin, arginine, carnitine, carnosine, ribose, coQ10, proline, rauwolfia) – reduces the occurrence of serious disease drastically with decades of health extension. This vastly reduces  profit to the Disease Hospital-Drug  and processed food- alcohol – tobacco industry in delayed disease till very old age, and thus loss of  skilled workers’  jobs – that need to be taken up  elsewhere. That’s called reinvention, recycling…



20 July 2014 HIGH CARBS OR LOW CARBS?  THE BIG FAT SURPRISE  – which is best for weight loss?  a collaborative literature metanalysis study  July 2014 by Naude ea the universities of Stellenbosch, Cape Town and Liverpool (UK)  claimed to compare the effects of low CHO and isoenergetic balanced weight loss diets in overweight and obese adults,  stratified by outcomes at 3-6 months and 1-2 years.  Of nineteen trials  (n = 3209), 3 had adequate allocation concealment. In non-diabetic participants, analysis showed little or no difference in mean weight loss in the two groups at 3-6 months (MD 0.74 kg) or  for blood pressure, LDL, HDL and total cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting blood glucose. In diabetic participants, findings showed a similar pattern.  CONCLUSIONS: Trials show weight loss in the short-term irrespective of whether the diet is low CHO or balanced. There is probably little or no difference in weight loss and changes in cardiovascular risk factors up to two years of follow-up when overweight and obese adults, with or without type 2 diabetes, are randomised to low CHO diets and isoenergetic balanced weight loss diets.

‘But  Noakes points outLow-fat, high-carb, high-sugar diet a likely cause of obesity/diabetes  “I refer to the report in the Cape Times of July 10,  “Noakes’s popular low-carb diet is not healthier, better for weight loss – study “. Since the authors of that study (Naude ea) do not understand either what constitutes a low-carbohydrate diet or the unique biological effects of such diets, they were predisposed to produce a biased report that comes to exactly the wrong conclusion.

‘First, the conclusion of their study was predictable since the authors chose to review only studies in which subjects ate the same number of calories on both diets. It is not clear how the authors conceived that diets that provided exactly the same number of calories would produce different outcomes. Indeed, a core teaching of these nutritional scientists is that the degree of weight loss is determined by the reduction in calorie consumption. Thus the authors knew the outcome of their study even before they undertook it. This is not good science.

‘Second, the studies included in their meta-analysis are not of the low-carbohydrate diet described by either Dr Robert Atkins or ourselves in Real Meal Revolution. Dr Atkins realised in the 1970s that the majority of overweight/obese persons can only reduce their weights successfully, and keep that weight off in the long term, if they eat less than 60g carbohydrate/day for the rest of their lives. Higher intakes are increasingly less effective. In Real Meal Revolution we stress that those with insulin resistance/ type 2 diabetes need to keep their carbohydrate intakes even lower, ideally to about 25g/day. The  “low-carbohydrate ” diets included in the meta-analysis provided a minimum of 200g carbohydrate/day (or 4-8 times higher than the carbohydrate content that is known to be effective). As a result this is a meta-analysis of studies providing a high, not a low-carbohydrate load for those with obesity/insulin resistance/type 2 diabetes.

‘Third, the extent of weight loss in the studies included in he meta-analysis is small, the greatest values being about 10kg. For most people with significant weight problems, such small weight losses are probably relatively meaningless and should be classified a diet failure, not a success. But freeliving persons who follow individually prescribed carbohydrate diets providing about 25g carbohydrate/day report quite remarkable degrees of weight loss, not infrequently up to 40-80kg, usually achieved effortlessly if the low-carbohydrate rules are followed.

‘Fourth, the unique biological effects of the properly-defined low-carbohydrate is that (i) It reduces hunger, allowing subjects to eat fewer calories without experiencing continual hunger. The point, as stressed by Dr Atkins, is that the low-carbohydrate diet is a low-calorie, no-hunger diet. (ii) The diet lowers blood insulin concentrations. In those with obesity/insulin resistance/metabolic syndrome, it is continually elevated blood insulin concentrations that cause ill-health (as clearly established by the work of Dr Gerald Reaven of Stanford University over the past 50 years).

‘The authors  found that health benefits were no different on either diet.    A number of properly designed, peer-reviewed meta-analyses of the real low-carbohydrate diets show that weight loss and health benefits are superior compared with higher-carbohydrate diets. Unfortunately, the authors appear to be ignorant of those studies since neither they nor your reporter refers to them. This implies the presence of bias, questioning the true intent of the report.

‘The report also includes the statement of the Heart Foundation of South Africa (HFSA) to the effect that a diet high in saturated fat causes heart disease. Unfortunately, the HFSA spokesperson appears unaware of Nina Teicholz’s recentbook, The Big Fat Surprise: Why Butter, Meat, Cheese Belong in Healthy Diet, and the  June 23 Time Magazine  Ending the War on Fat, which show that this dogma is false and is not based on any credible science.     It is  time  the HFSA updated its understanding of what actually causes heart disease. They might also want to consider whether their promotion of their unproven low-fat, high-carbohydrate, high sugar diet for the past 37 years is the most likely direct cause of the obesity/diabetes epidemic that has since engulfed South Africans.

‘Indeed on a practical side, I wonder if the authors have ever considered studying the dietary intakes of the obese diabetic patients they treat at Tygerberg and Groote Schuur hospitals. Do patients with these diseases eat either high- or low-carbohydrate diets? Why is is that these twin diseases, which are crippling the health services of the Western Cape, began to increase exponentially only after the 1977 Dietary Guidelines that institutionalised the low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets? Surely these are the critical questions that should really be exercising the minds of the Western Cape’s nutritional scientists? The best conclusion that can be drawn from this study is that diets providing more than 10 percent of daily calories in the form of carbohydrate are equally ineffective in producing meaningful degrees of weight loss in those with obesity/insulin resistance/type 2 diabetes.”

15 June 2014    DIET RISKS FOR BREAST CANCER, INFECTION & ALL ELSE:   Sugar? Fats? Vitamins?

already 30 years ago Seely and Horrobin in ‘Diet and breast cancer: possible connection with sugar consumption’ hypothesized: younger and older  (possibly pre- and post-menopausal )women differ with respect to such correlations. In older women a strong correlation was found between breast cancer mortality and sugar consumption (correlation coefficient = 0.9).. In younger women the correlation with diet is weak. A possible connecting link between sugar consumption and breast cancer is insulin. This is an absolute requirement for the proliferation of normal mammary tissue and experimental mammary tumours may regress in its absence. Insulin secretion occurs in response to blood glucose level and could be excessive if the regulatory mechanism is overtaxed by large sugar intake. The same mechanism might account for the increased risk of mammary cancer in diabetics.
  A  major decades-long Nurses’ Health  Study  review from Harvard shows no relationship between fat intake and breast cancer.
By contrast, studies from  Mexican  2004,  Canada 2005, Italy 2006 , and New York  2009 confirm direct association between sugar intake and breast cancer. . Only a study from Denmark 2005  shows no relationship.
Hence the HighFat LowCarbs (William Banting 1863) diet is now established by the rigorous scientific references of the past 150 years  assembled by science writer Gary Taubes in The Diet Delusion ,  and advised to all  for prevention and management of obesity and all other common major diseases including breast and all cancers.
      As investigative journalists write recently, like Taubes and rational scientists the past 50years,  the major cause of all common chronic degenerative disease including cancer and immunoincompetence is not fat but refined carbs – the root cause of the SACCHARINE DISEASES  that Cleave, Campbell, Burkitt reported occurring in pastoral tribes converting to the western commercialized diet of sugar, refined cereals and rice .                   They note that in the Mouse Cancer Study in cancer-prone mice,

Gemma Llaverias ea, Jefferson University, Philadelphia   2011,  which claimed that high (fat)cholesterol intake promotes breast cancer, the control mice  (not major carnivores but omnivores) were fed a balanced natural chow with 4.5% fat, 23% protein, and 50% carbohydrate, whereas the test mice were fed a totally synthetic chow meant to represent a western human  cholesterolemic  diet: 20% fat, 17% protein, and 48% carbohydrate. So in fact the high risk factor for cancer and all disease was not the higher fat intake (20%  as dairy fat) vs 4.5%- from fish meal and soy/cereals) but the 48% carbs (2/3  sucrose, 15% (malto)dextrins -which absorb as rapidly as glucose) intake and 19% casein (a major health problem)   in the test chow. They failed to include a control group on what is natural mouse diet ie free of refined carbs and milk :  RSPCA 2014:   Wild mice – opportunistic omnivores- will eat a wide variety of seeds, grains, and other plant material as well as invertebrates, small vertebrates and carrion“. Thus plenty of natural seed/grain fats and mixed protein and plant carbs,  zero sugar or refined carbs- ie the Banting diet. ..
A new 18year observational  followup  study from Sweden last year in 62000 people assessed total energy intake – carbohydrate  from median 61 to 39% , protein 11 to 19% , and  fat 27 to 42% . LCHP scores were positively related to intake of animal protein, but negatively related to plant protein. For carbohydrate and fat, associations were consistent in sucrose and whole grain and saturated and unsaturated fat, respectively. Across the range of macronutrients, there was no clear significant trend for particular cancers. This is not surprising as the intake of carbs ranged from 40 to 60% and fat from 27 to 42%. Thus no cohort was on a highfat low carbs ketogenic diet as Banting, Noakes  et al find successful. . the lowest % carbs group at best had similar fat % intake ie there was no low-carbs cohort taking below 30% carbs..There is a vast difference in calorie intake  between their “optimal’  LCHP 42:40 fat:carbs ie 1:1  , versus the  true ketogenic HifatLowcarbs diet of eg 50:<30 fat:carbs ie >1.66:1.
       Allowing up to 20% protein in total energy intake, for real weight loss- especially with insulin resistance- diet  fat needs to  be  >50% energy and carbs <30%, thus ensuring ketogenesis to shed excess fat and avoid depositing more glycogen and adiposity ; so eg for a tall fat person, thats  up to 80gms protein 320kcal mostly from flesh; carbs below 50gms 200kcal (  rainbow vegs) , and fat ~1480 kcal ie ~160gms from cream (not milk),   eggs, butter, cheese, avo, and fatty flesh; and mixed nuts cautiously due to their ~20% carbs content. .

It is no wonder the public is confused.

The truth of more than four decades worth of research is now very clear: the potential benefit of mammography screening is small and the harms are substantial at all ages, but especially so for women in their 40s.

The bottom line is that mammography screening, implemented to reduce breast cancer deaths due to earlier detection of breast cancer, has been eclipsed by therapy and increased awareness.

- See more at: http://umanitoba.ca/outreach/evidencenetwork/archives/4490#sthash.rf9YcMYp.dpuf

It is no wonder the public is confused.

The truth of more than four decades worth of research is now very clear: the potential benefit of mammography screening is small and the harms are substantial at all ages, but especially so for women in their 40s.

The bottom line is that mammography screening, implemented to reduce breast cancer deaths due to earlier detection of breast cancer, has been eclipsed by therapy and increased awareness.

- See more at: http://umanitoba.ca/outreach/evidencenetwork/archives/4490#sthash.rf9YcMYp.dp


VITAMIN C  each 100mg/day increment reduces allcause mortality by 27%, and breast cancer mortality by 22%:   a metaanalysis by the Karolinska- Harris ea   last month found 10 trials of vitamin C use and intake  in breast cancer, included 17,696 breast cancer cases, 2791 total deaths, and 1558 breast cancer-specific deaths. The summary RR (95% CI) for post-diagnosis vitamin C supplement use was 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.91) for total mortality and 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.99) for breast cancer-specific mortality. The summary RR for a 100mg per day increase in dietary vitamin C intake was 0.73 (95% CI 0.59-0.89) for total mortality and 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.94) for breast cancer-specific mortality- ie 25% lower mortality for every 100mg higher daily vit C intake..

Johnston CS1,ea., Arizona State University.            The early indications of vitamin C deficiency are unremarkable (fatigue, malaise, depression) and may manifest as a reduced desire to be physically active; moreover, hypovitaminosis C may be associated with increased cold duration and severity.. Healthy non-smoking adult men (18-35 years; BMI < 34 kg/m2; plasma vitamin C < 45 µmol/L) received either 1000 mg of vitamin C daily (n = 15) or placebo (n = 13) in a randomized, double-blind, eight-week trial. In the final two weeks of the trial, the physical activity score rose modestly for the vitamin C group vs. placebo after adjusting for baseline values: +39.6% p = 0.10). The number of participants reporting cold episodes was 7 and 11 for the vitamin C and placebo groups respectively during the eight-week trial (RR = 0.55;  p = 0.04) and cold duration was reduced 59% in the vitamin C versus placebo groups (-3.2 days; 95% CI [-7.0,0.6]; p = 0.06). These data suggest measurable health advantages associated with vitamin C supplementation in a population with adequate-to-low vitamin C status.

A 49-year-old man presented to hospital with severe orthostatic hypotension, gingival dysplasia and a purpuric rash involving his extremities. The orthostatic hypotension failed to respond to fluids and, on the basis of physical examination and dietary history, the patient was given a preliminary diagnosis of scurvy (ascorbic acid deficiency). Serum ascorbic acid levels were undetectable and the orthostasis resolved within 24 h of ascorbic acid replacement. The pathogenesis of orthostatic hypotension in the setting of scurvy appears to involve impaired catecholamine synthesis and attenuated vasomotor response to α-adrenergic stimulation. We believe that this case describes a rare presentation of scurvy and highlights a previously under-reported connection between scurvy and vasomotor instability.         

Br J Community Nurs. 2013 Suppl:S6, S8-11.Vitamin C: a wound healing perspective.   Moores JVitamin C, also known as ascorbic acid (AA), is involved in all phases of wound healing. In the inflammatory phase it is required for neutrophil apoptosis and clearance. During the proliferative phase, AA contributes towards synthesis, maturation, secretion and degradation of collagen. Deficiencies affect the maturation phase by altering collagen production and scar formation. The body strives to maintain homeostasis of AA, thereby ensuring availability for collagen synthesis. After wounding, plasma and tissue levels of AA diminish and, as a consequence, supplements may be useful for healing, although levels beyond saturation are excreted. Clinicians need to be aware of both the nutritional status of patients with either acute or chronic wounds and the possibility of any AA deficiency which may hinder healing.
Nat Commun. 2013;4:1881. Mycobacterium tuberculosis is extraordinarily sensitive to killing by a vitamin C-induced Fenton reactionVilchèze C1,ea .Einstein College New York.  Drugs that kill tuberculosis more quickly could shorten chemotherapy significantly.  we show that vitamin C, a compound known to drive the Fenton reaction, sterilizes cultures of drug-susceptible and drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis. While M. tuberculosis is highly susceptible to killing by vitamin C, other Gram-positive and Gram-negative pathogens are not. The bactericidal activity of vitamin C against M. tuberculosis is dependent on high ferrous ion levels and reactive oxygen species production, and causes a pleiotropic effect affecting several biological processes. This study enlightens the possible benefits of adding vitamin C to an anti-tuberculosis regimen and suggests that the development of drugs that generate high oxidative burst could be of great use in tuberculosis treatment.
20 years  ago Newmark from Sloan Kettering NY wrote :  High dietary fat increases mammary epithelial cell proliferation, particularly the “hormonally driven” hyperproliferation during breast growth and development in young animals. Increased dietary calcium (and probably vitamin D) lessens the increase of proliferation induced by high fat. These data, although limited, suggest that the maximum effect of diet (high fat increase, as well as calcium and vitamin D modulation) on eventual breast cancer may be during puberty, and adolescence, when the mammary gland is actively growing and developing. (3) An inverse epidemiological correlation exists between sunlight availability as a source of vitamin D and the risk of breast cancer in the U.S. and Canada. (4) Current vitamin D and calcium dietary intake in the U.S. is far below the RDA in all female age groups, particularly for the elderly. (5) Reduction of breast cancer risk, and simultaneously osteoporosis, might be achieved by increasing dietary intake of calcium and vitamin D to RDA levels. This may be particularly applicable to females during puberty and adolescence.
                    20 years later we now still find:                 Vitamin D and Cancer: The promise not yet fulfilled(California) ; and is there a link (France)?

BUT The Vitamin D Council    sums up the study evidence eg in a major Brit J Cancer metaanalysis last month of 30 prospective studies in 32000 BRCA  patients, and a Chinese study a year ago,   show  that  those with highest  vitamin D levels have 50-90% lower risk of  breast cancer risk, and mortality, and the chance of breast cancer spreading.  so far all they can recommend is that  vitamin D dose should for a robust adult not exceed  10 000 iu/day, or pro rata at longer intervals eg 150 000iu a fortnight.  Compared to those with the lowest quartile of plasma 25(OH)D level, women with highest quartile 25(OH)D level showed a significant decreased breast cancer risk (Q4 vs.Q1: OR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.06–0.15) and every 1 ng/ml increment of plasma 25(OH)D level led to a 16% lower odds of breast cancer.

         It is likely that- given the limits on vitamin C intake due to diarrhoea, and cost, and bloating-  increments in vit D3 intake well above the current mediocre antirachitic 400iu/d norm- up to the generally well-tolerated 10 000iu/day, (after a loading dose of 200 000 to 600 000iu).  with supplement of vitamin K2-  will give even better benefit against breast cancer than vitamin C.     


IT IS COMMON CAUSE THAT ONE DOESNT, CANNOT   PREVENT OR TREAT INFECTION BY POOR NUTRITION OR LOWDOSE ANTI- MICROBIALS- such policy is futile if not dangerous for breeding resistance as well as disease extension.   The studies below confirm the obvious, (as Klenner, Pauling,  Cameron ea showed the past 50 years with highdose vit C injection), that  vitamin D3 orally also works as a multiantimicrobial agent if given as early as possible in safe very high dose and bloodlevel eg 600 000iu monthly (in the first month, – in Salhuddin’s  Pakistan PTB patients (presumably also Sunni muslim) initially mean wt 45kg, thats vit D3 ~440iu/kg/d) for two doses ie a mean of 300iu/kg/day over 90days;   not the current preventative recommendation of 80iu/kg /day to a safe blood level of around 50-60ng/ml. As Holick has said, with adequate water intake  even 50 000iu vit D3 a day ie 1.5million iu/month for months causes no toxicity. Given the 40% mortality rate in the frail Saudi MERS patients, and in acute severe influenza and other serious viral infections, it can be expected that such  highdose immediate vitamin D3 therapy orally with eg 600 000iu, combined with highdose vitamin C, zinc and some multivite,  (never mind appropriate antibiotics in acute bacterial infection) will similarly virtually eliminate mortality.


But no KSA Govt website mentions this- except the Saudi Gazette a year ago which strongly urged vitamin D supplement in the KSA as even daily sun exposure does not bring most Saudi women above the vitamin D deficiency threshold. It says Since Muslim women can only reveal the hands and face, they may need to be out in the sun for longer than 30 minutes. But the review conspicuously  fails to mention that in public outdoors in KSA, women must have even the head and face covered. It also  propagates surprising  dangerous  nonsense that “severe deficiency needs monthly vitamin D injectionMom, have you taken your vitamin D injection this month?, when all it requires is an oral daily, weekly  or fortnightly  dose vitamin D3  at trivial cost.” It does stress  “One of the main reasons why vitamin D deficiency is so common in the Kingdom is because there are very few food sources of vitamin D. Foods which have fairly good amounts of vitamin D are fish liver oil, sweet potatoes, egg yolks, vegetable oils, butter, and fatty fish such as salmon, sardines, and tuna,” said Dr. Rasha Jameel, a consultant in family medicine at a local hospitalIn the United States, all milk and dairy products are fortified with vitamins A and D, but no such measures are in place in the Kingdom“.


This correlates with a new metaanalysis (in the  BMJ this month) of observational studies from Europe and USA, that all-mortality hazard ratio over a mean of 10 years  increases by 57% as vit D level falls from the highest to the lowest level. The KSA apparently chooses to ignore that, as this column reported recently from WHO data, despite  apparently being the wealthiest country per capita  of bigger populations  in the world,  KSA’s population life expectation is about 5 years lower than eg far less sunny Britain’s; ie KSA  all-cause mortality rate is avoidably materially higher. Despite KSA medical professors  having reported in studies  that most of the KSA population is deficient in vits D and C, the  KSA Govt website  chooses to ignore this on official websites;  unlike other even Middle-Eastern governments promoting vit D fortification or meaningful safe supplements costing trivial amounts.


Even a new study last year from KSA universities confirmed that ” Most commonly consumed food products by Saudi population which are supposed to be fortified by vitamin D are either not fortified or contain an amount less than  (apparently  from their table 2 ~ half of)  recommended by guidelines set for US marketplace”. Even a UAE authority recently stressed “Can fortified milk fight Vitamin D deficiency? Shockingly low levels of D3 among UAE population cannot be rectified by milk alone.” As Holick ea, including  a Turkish University 2010  trial report,  oral vitamin D3 is far more  effective , and safer than,   either vitamin D2, or vitamin D injection -never mind much cheaper. This current ostrich-head-in-the-sand denialism by the KSA government is like that of the RSA govt under Presidents Mbeki and Zuma 10-15 years ago about preventing and treating HIV-AIDS  – considering that the safe and beneficial daily intake of vitamin D3 is now universally recognized as 4000 if not 10 000iu/day (ie about 80iu/kg/day or pro rata up to perhaps fortnightly) , to a mean blood vit D  level of about 60 to 80ng/ml. .

As Prof Mike Holick pointed out a few years ago, “Even in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and South Africa, more than 50% of the population is deficient in vitamin D, all because of their avoidance of sun. Based on some of the literature, it seems that we could probably decrease health care costs across the board by 25% if everybody had optimal vitamin D status.” As Al Faraj ea reported in Riyadh in 2003,   Prof Zahid Naeem from a KSA university wrote in 2010,Vitamin D deficiency is an ignored epidemic in KSA  and globally“; confirmed by a KSA study by Ali ea in 2012: “Even in a sunny country like Saudi Arabia the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in young female is high“..  One does not need to  speculate why the KSA and all governments globally choose to ignore this inconvenient truth,  downplay effective vigorous  vitamin C and D3 (sunshine) supplements-  such widespread vitamin D and C deficiencies, like cigarette smoking and alcohol abuse,   suit governments and Big Pharma-  the Disease Industry- in reducing populations growths and creating jobs for the highly profitable Disease Industry and it’s shareholders-   for whom Only Disease Pays. Cheap safe natural  Prevention Does not Pay since it at least halves sickness never mind disease industry jobs, taxes  and profiteering in the global $multitrillion Disease and Diet and Vaccine and Invasive Screening Industry scams.


And Karen Hansen ea at Univ Wisconsin 2014 have  just shown  that  giving vitamin D2  (not D3)  50 000iu fortnightly for a year is actually adverse – as Holick and others have  show – IT DEPRESSES – perhaps halves – THE BIOLOGICALLY ACTIVE blood 25OHVIT D3 while boosting perhaps 5 fold the far less active blood 25OHvit D2 levels , and actually worsens  rheumatoid arthritis clinically and serologically . One can speculate whether vit D2 actually blocks optimal function of VDRs vitamin D receptors. Trials published 2012 from Japan and Netherlands showed that vitamin D3 – blood 1,25(OH)2D3 (but not TNFalpha blockers) blocked  inflammation (ie TNF tumour necrosis factor alpha activation of vascular calcification).                                                 

Salahudfin ea’s new randomized controlled trial  from Pakistan Vitamin D3 injection accelerates clinical recovery from tuberculosis  shows “impressive clinical (weight gain, chest xray and sputum clearing)  improvement  over 3 months on outpatient TB therapy (Directly Observed Therapy (DOTS) with 2 months of 4 antituberculous drugs [Isoniazid, Rifampicin, Ethambutol and Pyrazinamide] followed by 6 months Isoniazid and Ethambutol)  with two doses 600 000iu vit D3 imi  (vs placebo inj)  a month apart-  ie equivalent to about 7 000iu/day over the 3 months treatment period . This dose  of vitamin D is as recommended for vitamin D supplement by the Pakistan Endocrine Society.  Trough  25OH vit D levels increased from about 20 to 90ng/ml.    After 12 weeks, the vitamin D supplemented pts (mean 28 yrs, BMI 17.2kg, 85% moderate to far advanced lung disease)  had  significantly greater mean weight gain (kg) + 3.75, (3.16 – 4.34) versus + 2.61, p 0.009; lesser residual disease by chest xxray-  30% fewer zones involved 1.35 v/s 1.82 p 0.004,   and 50% or greater reduction in cavity size 106 (89.8%) v/s 111 (94.8%), p 0.035. Vitamin D supplementation led to significant increase in MTBs-induced IFN-g secretion in patients with baseline ‘Deficient’ vitamin D serum levels (p 0.021). Patients in the vitamin D arm and serum < 30 ng/mL (‘Insufficient’ and ‘Deficient’ groups) at enrollment had significantly greater improvements in TB severity scores compared to patients with normal baseline vitamin D levels; p 0.014. This corresponds with the earliest reports of the benefits of vitamin D in TB patients published in 1848 [21] that describes disease arrest, weight gain and reduction in mortality in patients with TB treated with cod liver oil compared to standard therapy alone. More recently, Martineau et al  [7]  demonstrated that a single oral dose of 2.5 mg (100,000 IU) of vit D2 significantly reduced growth of mycobacteria . A randomized, placebo controlled study on 67 Indonesian patients, by Nursyam et al , Jakarta  [22] reported that pulmonary TB patients given 420,000 IU of vitamin D over 6 weeks  ie 10 000iu/day had significantly higher sputum conversion rates as compared to placebo (p 0.002). Martineau et al. [8] showed that 100,000 IUs of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 supplementation significantly improved sputum conversion rates in patients with the Taq1 25-hydroxyvitamin D receptor polymorphism of the tt genotype.                                                                     .        

            As Salahuddin ea note, the good results in Pakistan in only 3 months with vigorous  INITIAL dose vit D3  contrasts with Two recently published large randomised, controlled trials of conservative vitamin D3 over months  that achieved far lower blood vitamin D levels found no difference in clinical outcomes or mortality after 400,000 IU of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 or placebo were given by   Martineau ea  in London, UK to 146 pulmonary TB patients – where mean (trough  or midpoint)  vit D level  (after 100 000iu vitamin D(3) or placebo at baseline and 14, 28, and 42 days after starting standard tuberculosis treatment) – was surprisingly only  40ng/ml at 56days – ie after a mean of 7000iu/d by  56 days,  vs 10ng/ml  on placebo)- less than half of the bloodlevel  achieved on vit D3  in the Pakistan trial ;      


        and  by Wejse et al  2009  in  Guinea-Bissau to 365 TB patients  – who received  300,000 IUs of vit D3   ie only 100,000 IU or placebo at inclusion and again 5 and 8 months after the start of treatment,  ie below 1000iu vit D3 per day over the 12 month trial period “. The Guinea-Bisseau pts thus might have achieved a mean blood vit D level boost of only  10ng/ml.. and now Havers ea (Baltimore)   show Low 25(OH)D is common in diverse HIV-infected populations and is an independent risk factor for clinical and virologic failure; Low 25(OH)D was associated with high body mass index (BMI), winter/spring season, country-race group, and lower viral load. Baseline low 25(OH)D was associated with increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) progression and death (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09–4.18) and virologic failure (aHR 2.42; 95% CI, 1.33–4.41). and Shepherd ea (Eurocoord) Low Vitamin D predicts short term mortality in HIV-positive persons Odds of death decreased by 46.0%( P = .04) for a 2-fold increase in latest 25(OH)D level.. In patients with current 25(OH)D <10 ng/mL, hsIL-6 concentration increased by 4.7%(95% CI, .2,9.4, P = .04) annually after adjustment for immunological/inflammatory markers, and no change in hsCRP rate was observed (P = .76)


UPDATE: 2 Mar  2014: PARACETAMOL ACETAMINOPHEN, DIGOXIN AND SPIRACTIN are ESTROGENIC: even the most popular and perhaps safest synthetic designer painkiller paracetamol acetaminophen (Tylenol, Panado) discovered in 1877   has again been shown  (Harvard University 2014- the Nurses’ Health Study from 20 years ago) to be ( like the 250year old biological human hormone digitalis/digoxin, and the 50year old synthetic antihormone  spironolactone), a weak estrogenic ie they proliferate the breasts and thus cancer potential.                       Acetaminophen use was positively associated with total Estrogen Metabolites (2+ days/week vs. non-use: 236 vs. 198 pmol/mg creatinine; p difference = 0.02, p trend = 0.11),  Thus like its cousin phenacetin (never mind alcohol and smoking)  after decades of fraudulent promotion as safe,  paracetamol’s harms outweigh its utility

     Thus while it  is fairly safe in adults in moderation,  like all designer synthetic drugs eg NSAIDs and synthetic/xenohormones,  like even lowdose aspirin, paracetamol  has many risks (even for the eyes)  and doesnt cure anything- whereas digoxin and spiractin may have lifesaving benefits in serious heart/ hypertensive disease. .

As always, for pain best stick to physical cure by eg manipulation, massage, rest and exercise, heat or cold, acupuncture; or some natural safe biological analgesic/antipyretic combination- massage with   arnica/menthol/coconut oil/ DMSO/cayenne/Lugol’s iodine/magnesium oil;     or these orally with eg fish oil; vitamins C (eg citrus), D3 (sunshine) and B esp B5 (meat, whole grain, avocado, brassica);  magnesium, manganese, copper, iodine, selenium; GABA (but not gabapentin and pregabalin – Bad Medicine);  plant extracts eg  boswelia, bromelain, buchu,  catsclaw, curcumin, dandelion,  MSM, nettle, ginger, caffeine, ecchinacea, sage, cherries, Oregano, rosemary, thyme, mint, cannabis, angelica, valerian;  and  cartilage eg glucosamine-chondroitin .


CHEST/BREAST  PAIN: In men and women, nontraumatic pain in the front , back and sides  of the chest (and abdomen)  is mostly neuromusculoskeletal, and easily diagnosed  by  the history (absence of cough, central deep pain radiating especially to the jaw , back  or left shoulder, breathlessness, fever, heartburn),  and  physical examination –absence of  systemic signs or  significant  changes in pulse and bloodpressure);

and appropriate assessment of the neck and thoracic spine since these are so often where root pain (around the shoulder girdle, trunk and limbs)  originates and can be simply relieved ie cured and thus diagnosed.

    This is crucial in daily busy  primary care ie general practice where patients –especially the younger fitter ones without the common high  risks – want a quick opinion and fix so they can move on, not have to undergo xrays,  heart-  and blood-tests that specialists and hospitals, medical schemes, politicians and civil servants  thrive on..

    Older women of  course  usually have the   major extra anterior chest organs – pendulous  breasts – to  consider.  But the same  history and physical exam as in men  quickly mostly  sorts out the source and thus the cause of the pain:  a mammary cause eg hormonal congestion diffuse tenderness,  discharge, or tender  lump or gland, or root cause, is  quickly  apparent.

CASE REPORTS: at yesterday’s breast clinic we saw the usual spread of middle-age issues  in the eight  (mean age 45yrs, 32 to 65yrs) who booked  for breast prescreening imaging :



CHEST PAIN: clerk Ms  booked herself for screening with almost constant  discomfort in her left breast for about 10weeks.. Like her and her doctors’ examinations, mammography a  month earlier found nothing abnormal.. She had no history of trauma or pain elsewhere, just slight neck discomfort. Her last period was years earlier, still on contraception  progestin injections. Examination and  mechanical tactile breast imaging confirmed tender full breasts; with maximal palpation tenderness midthorax laterally  at the site of her complaint.          Pressure and rotation elicited no discomfort elsewhere.  Gentle traction manipulation of her neck halved the ‘breast’ discomfort, which disappeared with a final satisfying click with gentle prone rotational pressure on her appropriate upper thoracic vertebra – confirming the root  source of her pain had been cured; and obviated further concern , tests and  analgesia.

 Manageress  also on  longterm depot hormone contraception (Mirena), with growing breasts,    rising weight despite careful diet,   and  concern about hip osteoporosis on DXA screening that was not improving but worsening the past 3 years on some routine vitamins C, D3  2000iu/day. K2 and calcium supplements. Her husband (not she) observed that she had severe night sweats.

       Both of the  ladies on synthetic progestin contraception   were reminded that such depot synthetics  suppress the ovaries ie cause artificial menopause with all its longterm subtle adverse effects, and that such hormones are known to slightly increase the risk of breast cancer, fattening and osteoporosis.    Both   were recommended progesterone cream, vitamin D and metformin as well as the other almost 20 bone supplements, for (pro)hormone balance and to assist with body fat  and thus all-risk reduction

        Ms   mid-60s with no complaints except stress vertebral fracture from osteoporosis now on opioid patch!  mother died of breast cancer at 78yrs; she has had 10 mammograms;  just dense lumpy breasts;; advised vigorous vit D, Super C, K2; Triple Bone-Pain – antiarthritic blend; metformin; DHEA and melatonin 20mg/d;

    Ms  early  50s  with menopausal symptoms, hypertension ( on perindopril)   and lumpy breasts, now off Nuristerate, ,   was advised to take appropriate supplements including progesterone cream. There is a new report from Holmes ea Canada http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24075077  that ACEi/ARBs use eg perindopril  was associated with significant 22%  increased deaths from  breast cancer (95% CI: 1.04-1.44), let alone the risk with such drugs of recurrent persistent cough and insidious nephropathy; so is advised to swop over to the safest best and cheapest 1st-line antihypertensive regime of lowdose  reserpine with low dose amilozide,

Ms  mid-30s with a child despite endometriosis and  PCOS , 4 years after removal of Mirena (7 years) , had lumpy breasts. Advised metformin,  vits  D and Supervit C, minerals and vitamins.

Ms  early 30s with PCOS , two aunts in their 50s with breast  cancer, her granny from the other parent having died of breast cancer at 76years.. with  lumpy breasts; she was advised the supplements including progesterone cream, melatonin, and metformin.


 Ms   mastectomy and DXRT 2011, now off Nuristerate ,  given weeks to live 18 mo ago with brain metastases that have shrunk with chemoradiotherapy and her zealous work as a cancer counselor;  lumpy other breast; now advised metformin, sutherlandia, melatonin 20mg/d,  vigorous vit  K2,  D and Supervit C, DIM, mushroom, astragulus, selenium, minerals and vitamins within her means.

Ms   had lumpectomy and 3 positive glands/12 removed in 2011, refused further oncology/ radiochemotherapy.   Lumpy breasts confirmed . Advised metformin,  sutherlandia, melatonin 20mg/d,  vigorous vits K2,  D and Supervit C, DIM- I3C, mushroom, astragulus , selenium, minerals and vitamins;  if not Iscador, cesium, TCM,  and pancreas/gene therapy  within her means.

BREAST PREVENTION REGIME: apart from optimizing diet and lifestyle with appropriate obesity-reducing diet and avoidance of estrogenic foods and drugs,

Based on published evidence and our experience from patients of analgesics and anticancer benefit, all were advised to try  triple breast massage daily with coconut oil, Lugols iodine then DMSO  for a few weeks, and if they want reassurance, return in a month or two  for followup breast imaging to show the shrinkage in all lumps that  most show. Those with higher risks are advised to take the oils by mouth as well, and if iodine depleted, oral iodine , for their global benefits.

      However, short of  avoiding  sex, or use condoms and barrier creams, or ill-advised sterilization or dependence on coitus interruptus,  their contraceptive method is hard to improve, short of relying on the oldfashioned intrauterine device without any contraceptive hormone. The oldest naturally occurring pregnancy we have seen was at 55 years, so women have to take care past this age…Natural human contraception with depot human progesterone and estrogen was developed decades ago, but naturally not made available commercially because only synthetics are patentable and thus commercially viable raincheck drugs that profit Big Pharma, health professionals and politicians. .

     Instead, women are advised simply to protect the breasts, womb, brain, heart, skeleton,  face etc, and stop menopause symptoms, by adding just enough human  progesterone cream daily to their face makeup (+- vaginally); (testosterone cream sparingly  if indicated for frailty, depression  and poor sex) , and take a sensible daily blend of the twenty other natural bone and multisystem antioxidant anabolics  (as this website www.healthspanlife.wordpress.com details under osteoporosis) including vitamin D about 2500iu/kg/month ie about 150 000 to 200 000 iu/month for an average size adult.

         In people rapidly fattening due to lifestyle, stress and the bad marketed adverse food chain, wiser choices have to be promoted-which does not suit most  politicians, Big Business or the Disease Industry for whom Only Disease Pays-  Prevention Doesn’t Pay.. So to protect against fattening and insulin resistance perils, metformin to sensible tolerance is also an inevitable recommended  natural albeit prescription supplement until healthy robust lean weight can be maintained without it.

      The supplements listed  above – (fish oil, appropriate parenteral human sexhormone replacement and the other antioxidants/anabolic vitamins, minerals and natural biologicals including the prohormones metformin and vitamin D) also mostly obviate the deplorable high-risk use (for commercial profiteering) of risky synthetics eg  statins, bisphosphonates, psychotropes, analgesics, NSAIDS, patented xenohormones and chemotherapy   etc – none  of  which address the underlying stress, deficiency  and pollution ie primary causes of  disease.


16 June 2013 A new review by Carolanne Wright reviews how to combat estrogen overload – How environment and lifestyle contribute to hormonal imbalance while devastating the health of both men and women.

27 May 2013 Wikipedia reports that in 2008,  about half a million women   died from  breast cancers (out of some billion older women worldwide ie 0.5 per 1000 women, an annual deathrate of 0.05% pa),  23% of cancer deaths in women; with cancer overall accounting for about 13% of deaths -the commonest being stomach-colon-liver 2.8%;  lung cancer 1.4%, then breast 0.46%  of deaths. So breast cancer – mostly undetected globally  by the luxury of mammography till it presents clinically-  kills only perhaps  1:2000 older women per year, ie perhaps <25%  of the  perhaps  1:500 older women who develop clinical breast cancer-  995/1000 of older women’s deaths being from other causes than breast cancer.

These figures dispel the  dangerously fraudulent  fearmongering  lie  of the USA Radiological and Breast Cancer Associations and Curves International that “(screening) mammography saves lives”. Its good to see in the current Curves South Africa website that in this Celebrating Mothers’ Week at Curves, they have dropped the Mammography saving lives myth of 3 years ago that started this particular theme column.  That hasnt stopped USA doctors  from continuing to propogate the lie.

But some there  eg Dr Lissa Rankin MD – daughter of a mammography radiologist- are still brave enough to refute the lie. And even the American Cancer Society chief medical officer doesnt make such ludicrous  claims but points out how complex the issue of prescreening detection is. .

Johnson and Bleyer reported Feb 2013    from the SEER study  that advanced breast cancer in young USA  women 25-39yrs has doubled between 1976 and 2010.

South Africa (religion mostly African Christian) has the distinction  of being one of Earth’s  most corrupt and illiterate  countries,  with strange bedfellows –  Latin  America (mostly Catholic),  Egypt Lebanon & Pakistan(Islamic), and  South Korea(mixed religions)-  that follow the USA in defying evidence – in this case  of danger to cows and humans – and allow the use of rBGH recombinant Bovine Growth Hormone ; and  sex hormones   in dairy and meat production. The evidence of harm, eg  carcinogenicity and feminization  is so strong that such  use has been banned in many  countries for decades .

MORTALITY TREND AND CANCER IN RSA AND GLOBALLY: Breast cancer is usually a disease of postmenopausal women-who till a centry ago on average barely lived to that age. In South Africa at the   peak of the untreated AIDS epidemic around 2000, with average lifespan drastically fallen, of all deaths, overall infections (HIV  TB, pneumonias etc)  caused about 39%, external causes  12%, cardio/vascular disease 11%,  cervix cancer 1.4% and breast cancer 1.3%.    But Statistics SA report last month that by 2010, with antiretrovirals, life expectancy  had risen about 5years, and that of all deaths,  HIV+TB  deaths had  at least halved   to  15% (17% in Africans, 9% in coloureds, 2.4% in Indians), cardio/vascular deaths were 12% in blacks but 27.8% in whites; external causes down to 9%, cancers 9% (mostly digestive and respiratory); with only 20 breast cancer deaths ie 0.00% reported in RSA.

Breast cancer is still rare in a mostly young population with mean age of survival of women still half of that of the first world,  with virtually a generation gap due to the carnage of the untreated AIDS era and institutionalized male violence especially against women, children and minorities- xenophobia.

But meat  and dairy milk (in South Africa widely containing added rBGH and sex hormones) are  among widely used foodstuffs likely contributing, as Joe Mercola notes,  to the increasing occurrence of breast cancer in younger women. Never mind deadly  sugars, smoking and alcohol consumption on the rise here in RSA.

To   improve immunity,  insulin receptor sensitivity
,  lessen obesity and excessive estrogenization (from both outside your body,  and your own fat production):

  • Exercise;  Maintain a healthy body weight  -BMI < 24kg; waist girth<about 85- 90 cm; earthing- walk barefoot.
  •    AVOID:- added or concenrated sugar, (especially fructose- commercial fruitjuice; cornstarch, white flour); charred fats; smoking; alcohol;  unfermented soy products; licorice; GE genetically engineered foods. .  
  • BUT those with asthma, leaky gut/IBD, epilepsy or bad arthritis should also try excluding for a few weeks WHEAT; DAIRY; AND NIGHTSHADEs (potato, tomato, peppers/cayenne, eggplant).
  •              –synthetic sexhormones (progestins, xenoestrogens eg in meat, commercial milk, birth control and HRT,   BPA, phthalates, pesticides); spironolactin Spiractin; digoxin; and . 
  •              -physical trauma eg underwire bras;                        xray (eg airports and xray screening mammography), electromagnetic fields eg electroblankets.
  •              -other toxin overload aspartame,  marketed designer drugs (eg  painkillers, statins, psychotropes, bloodthinners, antiinflammatories- even paracetamol Panado acetaminophen Tylenol);                         and      -overload metals  (eg iron, fluoride, bromide, chloride,  aluminium, lead, mercury, - consider detox.
  •    Do (Lymphatic) breast massage with eg anticancer coconut oil, DMSO, Lugols iodine; 
  •   Breastfeed your babies;
  • &  To avoid common deficiencies (on our depleted polluted GMO-fastfood diet, especially with increasing longevity), which contribute to all common diseases,                             take plenty of
  •      -sunlight; melatonin & enough restful natural sleep and relaxation!
  •      -organics eg green/coloured  vegetables/ juice daily. .
  •      -fish oil ie marine  omega-3  (dont fry  in  Om6 plant oil)
  •      -for lipidemia,  overweight, diabetes, the prime insulin sensitizer-weight/appetite reducer galega/metformin to tolerance;
  •      -iodine as eg kelp, or Lugol’s iodine.
  •      -vitamin D3:  with cancer, target  blood vitamin D level 70 to  100 ng/ml ie we need about  70-100iu/kg/day – and   sunshine and food cant provide this. . .
  •      -natural vitamin A - organic eggs, raw butter, raw whole milk, and beef or chicken liver, or a supplement.
  •      -buffered vitamin C about 50mg/kg/day    up  to tolerance;- with acute infection/inflammation/cancer  in an  adult, this may be 1/2 up to >2gm hourly till better, or diarrhoea, then (like metformin) just enough to avoid diarrhea;
  •      -virgin coconut oil & DMSO each 1(-15) tsp/day;
  •      -magnesium about 5 mg/kg/d; calcium phosphate;
  •      -zinc, chromium, selenium, manganese, boron;  and
  •      -vits Bco, CoQ10, &  K2.
  •      -natural estrogen-aromtase inhibitors to lower adverse estrogen dominance, raise  the  2OH:16OH estrone balance to about 2:1 – eg exercise; lecithin/choline (from eg  eggs/seeds);  oranges/lemons, red grapes, passionfruit;  celery, parsley, basil, artichokes, avocado,coconut, onions, garlic, olives, olive leaves; asparagus, squash, cauliflower, broccoli/cabbage/spinach/Brussels (provide I3C/DIM di-indole methane), yams, milk thistle,  sawpalm, diet fibre,  black radish, mushroom-astragulus, sutherlandia, beet, dandelion, curcumin turmeric, cinnamon, ginger, honey, garlic,  black pepper; taurinemethionine; zinc, selenium, vits C/D3/E/K2; and/or balancing  progesterone/ testosterone – or just 7ketoDHEA in the elderly..

Just this  month, a major trial from UCLA (Smith, Kurzer ea) confirmed that in healthy sedentary young women, moderate exercise 2.5 hour a week significantly beneficially  lowered the risky  estrone level  and raised  the             2OH:16OH estrone ratio.

These preventative steps may remove justification for therapeutic mastectomy (which is known to reduce survival)  for localized breast cancer , let alone preventative bilateral mastectomy even in women with high penetration BRCA genes, as publicized this month  by filmstar Angela Jolie .


28 January 2014    guest author  orthopaedic surgeon and instructor  Dr Jon Driver-Jowitt FRCS  orthopaediciq.org   opined:

This is not scientific precision.  This is not peer reviewed.  This might not resist the rigor of an editor.  These are simply observations intended to spur thought and look laterally.

Much advice about food appropriate for health has been given. Much of that has been based upon (often marginal) statistics. Many are deduced from self-reporting surveys. However the variables are so great that it is impossible to accommodate these into meaningful statistics. A few of these variables include quantum of food, types of mixtures of food, frequency of these foods, plus multiple variables related to micro-nutrients ingested simultaneously, and more.

When in doubt, it has been said, look in the instruction book. The instruction book for  animals (including the human)  exists in the animal. It is the inclination to eat some foods and the abhorrence of others.

Without the instruction book, one has to look at design specifications. Unfortunately the animal-machine-design did not consider the possibility of limitless food, or great food variety, or types of current cultivars. So selection by appetite might be flawed, and one is left guessing (somewhat) about the design specification. That is what is addressed here.

But before that, if one wants to live longer, the method has been (scientifically) available for the better part of a century. Simply, eat less. Eat less than your appetite drive. Eat less than your cohorts.

But let us look at design. Suppose humans were to be designed from scratch, which fuels (i.e. foods) should be selected, bearing in mind the limitations of availability, and knowing that the human is a mobile device with defined functional requirements and a limited life-span? Consider these options, and consider how they fit with current eating patterns:

Fat is probably the most desirable and quintessential food for humans.  It is the supreme appetiser.  It carries essential vitamins. Fat the highest calorific gain of all foodstuffs whilst it has a low energy cost for ingestion and digestion. It is the most cost effective source of energy. Yet fat has powerful negative feedback mechanisms.  Therefore, although fat stimulates appetite it also produces satiation relatively rapidly. Rapid satiation allows food to be spread to the entire pack, in keeping with expectations of le milieu exterior which demands survival of the group, not the greedy individual. However the satiation of fat can be strongly altered by salt.  Therefore, salted fat and perhaps salted protein can become “compulsive” foods, inducing the eater to keep eating until gorged.  So we have yet another factor, the “additions” to food which induce compulsive feeding, prompted by those intent on making money out of food.

Protein is probably neutral tasting without the fat and salt, is not particularly palatable and does not have the “addictive” quality of carbohydrate. But it contains “essential” components which the human cannot manufacture, including amino-acids and vitamin C (curiously a “water-soluble” vitamin). It is also heavily mechanically bound to fat, and often inseparable.

Carbohydrate, on the other hand, was never particularly attractive to early humans.  Yes, I know well enough that some carbohydrates, the sugary carbohydrates, are exceedingly attractive.  But in primitive societies, all carbohydrates were not attractive.  Pure sugar is a relatively new evolution. The current sweet fruits and even potatoes are the product of intentional selective breeding to make those carbohydrates more palatable.

The metabolisms of carbohydrate, the sugars, are again very different from fat, in that the same metabolic pathways are used for both the anabolism and the catabolism of carbohydrate. The control of carbohydrate metabolism lies outside the direct metabolic pathways, relying on end-organ control. These includes insulin receptors.   This is distinct from fat where the anabolic and catabolic pathways are different, and so allowing feed-back to curb appetite and metabolic direction.

Carbohydrate’s prime quality is that it is cheap.  As a consequence commerce has “wrapped” carbohydrate in both fats and sugar in order to make it compulsive eating at a cheap price.  Amongst the most tempting ingestants are those that have both sugar and fat, as in chocolate.

Refined and manufacturer altered carbohydrate once ingested, prompt the desire to keep on eating it. Carbohydrate can have a long shelf life, is easily stored and so lends itself to easy snacking. No surprise that it is perfect to fuel “habituation eating”, and ultimately obesity.

Sugar is impregnated into cake carbohydrate or spread on the top as icing.  Fat is used as a layer to make bland carbohydrates or even carbohydrates and protein more palatable, as in deep fried foods – where salt is added for good measure. Cheap beans are made more palatable for sale by adding the salt and sugar of ketchup.Salt is impregnated into carbohydrate ( chips and French fries).

Water, the foundation nutrient.  Many children are metabolically confused because the water offered to them is laced with calories, primarily sugar and some metabolically noxious colourants. They then lose the distinction between thirst and hunger. When thirsty they might attempt to satisfy themselves  by choOsing “food” rather than fluid (sugar laden drinks, iced cream ). The outcome is hypercaloric habituation.

It therefore might not be what you eat, but which combination one eats, that influences the health or disease of individuals.  There is some evidence that individuals like to eat the same food and will repeat eating that ingestant by choice.

“Humans like variety, humans need variety, and humans need a balanced diet”.  This may not have been the case with evolutionary man and it is certainly not the case with many animals.  Those animals can adapt to a particular foodstuff (obviously one that is available) and then continue eating that foodstuff by choice, even where alternatives become available.

The legend has arisen that individuals need a “mixed and balanced” diet.  As far as I am aware there is no evidence that this mixing needs to occur in the same meal.  True enough, one needs the vitamins and one needs the different proteins, fat and carbohydrate.  But does one need them simultaneously, wrapped around each other and made into tempting compotes?

Editorial comment:  The science concurs:

The evidence  for higher water intake, moderate protein and low sugar/salt no-smoking   intake is self-evident except to sugar, beverage  and cigarette manufacturers, marketeers and addicts.          But the fraudulent promotion of the low saturated fat (ie meat), low-cholesterol , high carbs regime for all remains a big problem.

Dr Ancel Keys  PhD (1904-2004) was a revered polymath  traveler, oceanographer biologist turned physiologist nutritionalist (Biology of Starvation; the K Ration) , who correctly  recognized and  promoted the Mediterranean Diet (>35% fat), and long outlived his critics. But he and his followers  set USA-led  nutrition and health  back 50 years with his  wrongly interpreted Seven Countries study  claiming that atheroma was caused by saturated fat- related hypercholesterolemia, thus   promoting  the Omega6PUFA low cholesterol diet and cholesterol-busting statins- but not explaining the question  of fatal sudden death- coronary thrombosis posed by Sir George Pickering in 1964.

Keys  may  still be laughing  his head off at the  $billions he made  for the  Fast-Food industry & Big Pharma, and the millions  of quality health years he cost gullible Americans and their ilk  with his wrong  high-omega6 diet and thence  the money-spinning statins-for-all poison myth.

After the decades of derision poured  as a result on the ketogenic high-fat-protein  low sugars Atkins diet, the Disease-monger (Food,  Sugar, Disease, Big Pharma)  Industries  will scoff,  as they recently mocked  sports physiologist  Prof Tim Noakes’ conversion to high-fat ketogenic diet for those  with the appropriate physiology, his Real Meal Revolution . .   Some cardiologists and dieticians even attacked him publicly for promoting scientific evidence against the  high-carbs lowfat  diet, including the Womens Health Initiative , not Big Pharma wishful thinking  taught  by the academics  and clinicians  whose livelihoods depend on their promoting Big Pharma and other new-tech products.. 

Read Noakes’ modern  nutrition bible, the American science writer   Gary Taubes’  The Diet Delusion(2009);  and read  the British Dr James le Fanu’s earlier Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine (1999 London pp 323-376),  that dissected Keys’  toxic cholesterol-busting mythology,  including statins  that are now promoted for all seniors.

Its not a question of statin denialism  since such drugs may have an appropriate  place in severe hypercholesterolemia. Over all, the majority of hypercholesterolemic and CVD patients will do better on multisystem-beneficial metformin (antioxidant, antiinfective, antithrombotic, antidiabetic, insulin-sensitizing, appetite-reducing, weighloss-promoting),  titrated to tolerance; with modest other essential multibeneficial  supplements- (water; fish oil, coconut oil,   DMSO, all vitamins especially BCo, C,D and K2;  minerals especially magnesium, zinc, chromium, selenium and iodine; and other aging-and -diet-conditioned deficiencies of eg CoQ10, arginine, alphalipoic acid, carnitine, ribose, carnosine, acetylcystine, garlic, cinnamon, proline  etc.  )  than  a multisystem-toxic statin.

THE SYDNEY HEART DIET STUDY    And now the truth emerges yet again, that debunked Keys’ high Omega6 diet theory: as it did in the original ignored  but landmark  Sydney Heart Diet Study report in an elite 1978 journal (Adv Exp Med Biol.)  aboutLinoleic Acid with Low fat, low cholesterol diet in secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. Woodhill JM, Leelarthaepin B, ea) discrediting  Keys’ (and the USA Govt) postulate.                                                                                                                                The new 35year followup  2013 BMJ multicentre  paper (Ramsden,  Leelarthaepin B ea) from the Universities of Sydney, N Carolina and  Illinois and the  USA NIH :    Use of dietary linoleic acid for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease and death: evaluation of recovered data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study  reevaluated effectiveness of replacing diet saturated fat (from animal fats, margarine,  shortenings)  with omega 6 linoleic acid Om6LA  (safflower oil/margarine )  for a mean of 39months;  in a  single blind, parallel  randomized controlled trial  in 1966-73  in 458 men 30-59 years, with recent coronary event. Controls received no specific diet instructions. Non- dietary aspects equivalent in both  groups.                                  Results The intervention group (n=221) after only 3.25 years  had 62-70% higher rates of death  and CHD and CVD than controls (n=237; P=0.04-0.05)) (all cause 17.6% v 11.8%),                  Conclusions Advice to substitute PUFA for saturated fats is a key component of worldwide dietary guidelines for CHD risk reduction. However, clinical benefits of the most abundant PUFA Om6LA , have not been established. In this cohort, substituting dietary  LA  in place of saturated fats increased the rates of death from all causes, CHD and CVD. Updated meta-analysis of linoleic acid intervention trials showed no evidence of CVD benefit. These findings (could) have important implications for worldwide dietary advice to substitute Om3LA , or PUFA  in general, for saturated fats.

THE MESA STUDY:  The Sydney Diet Heart Study outcome  has just been confirmed again by the Dec 2013 Harvard USA MESA study (de Olivera, Mozaffarian  ea J Am Heart Assoc.) Circulating and Dietary Omega-3 and Omega-6 PUFA  and Incidence of CVD in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. in 6 USA centres,  which confirms that  higher intake and levels of fish oil (but not ALA or Om6PUFA) halves CVD: Over 10 years, in a multiethnic cohort of 2837 US adults- mean  age 61.4yrs at outset-  plasma  PUFAs  measured at baseline (2000-2002),  and dietary PUFAs ,  through 2010 during 19 778 person-years of follow-up,  circulating n-3 eicosapentanoic acid EPA and docosahexanoic acid  DHA inversely associated with incident CVD, with extreme-quartile hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 0.49 for EPA  (0.30 to 0.79; Ptrend=0.01) and 0.39 for DHA (0.22 to 0.67; Ptrend<0.001).  No significant associations with CVD were observed for circulating n-3 alpha-linolenic acid ALA or n-6 PUFA (linoleic acid, arachidonic acid). Associations with CVD of self-reported dietary PUFA were consistent with those of the PUFA biomarkers. Both dietary and circulating eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid, were inversely associated with CVD incidence. These findings suggest that increased consumption of n-3 PUFA from seafood (but not alpha-linolenic acid or n-6 PUFA), may prevent CVD development in a multiethnic population.

But then we senior medics born around WW2  were schooled  in the English /Scottish (not American) medical tradition of Drs Cleave, Burkitt,  Painter & Campbell’s  Saccharine Diseases, refined sugar, boozing,  smoking  and physical indolence-TV sloth as the chief causes of the burgeoning post-WW2 epidemic of obesity, diabetes, vascular disease, cancer and violence. 

Humans rarely  need what Big Pharma, science  invents for megaprofits. We have known for 50 years that  the current pandemic of degenerative and modern infectious diseases  is due to bad diet – fast-food  – and slothful lifestyle,  tampering for megaprofit with food production and the environment, and reversible by correcting these factors with exercise, fresh whole food and organic farming, and avoidance of boozing,  smoking, TV sloth, and continuous wars for profit, especially the Breast-and -Prostate Screening wars for the $billions  to be made from screening aging men and women for early ie silent cancer. 

The Sydney and MESA studies quoted thoroughly debunk  the fast-food high  Om6/carbs  low fat  diet promoted the past 50 years by the Food and Disease Industry, and by  the Peskin-Rowen Om6 PEO  and the statins-for-all hypotheses;  and the nonsensical UK Wald and Law Polypill including high-risk statin-aspirin-betablocker -diuretic-ACEI   for all senior citizens. . Even an advertorial Wikipedia entry promoting  such nonsense has been allowed…

BALANCING INTAKE OF ANIMAL/DAIRY  PROTEIN -SFA WITH MARINE Om3 PUFA, PLANT MCT & Om6, without added refined/concentrated  sugars like fructose and cornstarch:                                                              As Mike Howard the Health Ranger writes this week, healthful pasture-fed butter is back, and margarine debunked even by its manufacturers; and almost half the USA states moving to enforce labeling of GMO foodstuffs so that consumers can choose what they buy. .

and biochemist  GD  Lawrence from Dept  Biochemistry, Long Island University, NY  writes in  May 2013 Adv Nutr.   Dietary fats and health: dietary recommendations in the context of scientific evidence:  Early studies showed that saturated fat SFA  diets with very low levels of PUFAs increase serum cholesterol, whereas other studies showed high serum cholesterol increased the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). The evidence of dietary SFA  increasing CAD or causing premature death was weak. Over the years, data revealed that dietary SFAs are not associated with CAD and other adverse health effects or at worst are weakly associated in some analyses when other contributing factors may be overlooked. Several recent analyses indicate that SFAs, particularly in dairy products and coconut oil, can improve health. The evidence of ω6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) promoting inflammation and augmenting many diseases continues to grow, whereas ω3 PUFAs seem to counter these adverse effects. The replacement of  SFA in the diet with carbohydrates, especially sugars, has resulted in increased obesity and its associated health complications. Well-established mechanisms have been proposed for the adverse health effects of some alternative or replacement nutrients, such as simple carbohydrates and PUFAs. The focus on dietary manipulation of serum cholesterol may be moot in view of numerous other factors that increase the risk of heart disease. The adverse health effects that have been associated with SFA  in the past are most likely due to factors other than SFAs.  This review calls for a rational reevaluation of existing dietary recommendations that focus on minimizing dietary SFAs,   for which mechanisms for adverse health effects are lacking.

The University Oregon Linus Pauling Micronutrient Centre website on EFAs has not apparently been updated with the latest MESA and Sydney trial reports; but it advocates (from Japan, and American Heart Association recommendations) Om3 fishoil intake of 2-4gm/day and Om6LA perhaps three times that- rather than the Keys-based 20:1 Om6:Om3 low SFA high carbs  balance that has done so much harm in our lifetime. 

BENEFITS OF FISH OIL AND COCONUT  (MCT) OIL:           are  achieved by taking a tsp of clean (eg Baltic) codliver oil or a gm of fish oil concentrate a day; and no Om6LA supplement other than as a salad/pasta dressing; combined with liberal virgin coldpressed coconut oil for massage, cooking, and food dressing, or as a desertspoon+  a day.. 

The Wiki Health entry for coconut oil usefully still notes the historical deliberate- profiteering- fallacious marketing bias against coconut oil- SFA- which has now been again debunked by the Sydney and MESA studies:  Advocacy against coconut and palm oils in the 1970s and 1980s due to their perceived danger as a SFA saturated fat caused companies to substitute trans fats instead of  them.  Many health organizations (still) advise against the consumption of high amounts of coconut oil due to its high levels of SFA, including the USA FDA & ADA, the UK NHS,  the WHO,[3] International College of Nutrition, and American Heart Association,[7]  Coconut oil contains a large proportion of lauric acida SFA that raises blood cholesterol levels by increasing the amount of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Most of the increase is however  HDL cholesterol, hence the ratio of total to HDL cholesterol is decreased.[30] A decreased ratio indicates reduced risk for heart disease.[31] It is also found in significant amounts in laurel oil, palm kernel oil (not to be confused with palm oil), and human and animal breast milk. This may create a more favourable blood cholesterol profile… Because much of the saturated fat of coconut oil is in the form of lauric acid, coconut oil may be a better alternative to partially hydrogenated vegetable oil when solid fats are required.[34] In addition, virgin coconut oil (VCO) is composed mainly of medium-chain triglycerides,[35] which may not carry the same risks as other saturated fats.[34][36

Similarly, the Wiki entry on  Medium-chain triglycerides ie coconut oil-  states its nutritional benefits without any harms: MCTs are  considered good biologically inert source of energy that the humans find reasonably easy to metabolize. MCTs have potentially beneficial attributes in protein metabolism … and..  their tendency to induce ketogenesis Due to their ability to be absorbed rapidly by the body, MCT have use in the treatment of malabsorption ailments. and  neurodegenerative disorders (e.g. Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s disease)[14] and epilepsy through the use of ketogenic dieting.[15][16] Serum high-density lipoprotein is increasingly elevated as the chain-length of triglyceride decreases.[17]

We should not be relying  on heavily marketed,  factory-processed and poison-laced (margarines, Roundup GMO, exogenous sexhormone -laden meat ) foods, TV-armchair  lifestyle; exploiting and burning fossil fuels; and Big Pharma’s synthetic new designer wannabe drug $$$ rainchecks-  like statins, antidiabetics, antiobesity, antianxiety, antiosteoporosis, antiplatelet, antidepressant, antiinflammatory,  antihypertensive, memory, analgesic  and antibiotic  drugs  for quick fixes, which treat symptoms but not causes, do not reverse the consequences of environmental destruction, bad and deficient diet and unhappy slothful lifestyle.

Dr Driver-Jowitt pragmatically  and succinctly puts healthy diet balance in perspective.


THE 2014 VIRUS SEASON DAWNS: URGENT UPDATE: AVOIDING THE SEMMELWEIS REFLEX; natural antibiotics- Vitamins C & D3 – avoiding vitamin denialism.

update 22/3/2014the March equinox:Vaccines and antivirals for preventing   and  treating  influenza in healthy adults have  very modest benefit.  as  the seasonal flu epidemic wanes in the northern hemisphere and approaches in the south, Authorities eg the US CDC  continue relentlessly to promote mass flu vaccination. The South African Authority NICD recommends vaccination for anyone at high risk ie the elderly, infants or the sick, and carers. It also recommends antivirals eg Tamiflu for infection- but the BMJ recently publishes  Study claiming Tamiflu saved lives was based on “flawed” analysis. a 2012 BMJ  report by the samemedical journalist   Zosia Kmietowicz   notes Cochrane group rejects Roche’s offer of “advisory board” to discuss analysis of oseltamivir data. The 2011 Cochrane question remains unresolved:  Does Oseltamivir Tamiflu  Really Reduce Complications of Influenza?

But current Cochrane review of controlled trial publications to 2013 confirms  Vaccination of pregnant women is recommended internationally, while healthy adults are targeted in North America. The overall efficacy of inactivated vaccines in preventing confirmed influenza has a NNV of 71 (95% CI 64 to 80). . Live aerosol vaccines have an overall effectiveness corresponding to a NNV 46 (95% CI 29 to 115). Vaccination had a modest effect on time off work and had no effect on hospital admissions or complication rates. Inactivated vaccines caused local harms CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccines have a very modest effect in reducing influenza symptoms and working days lost in the general population, including pregnant women.  This review includes 90 studies, 24 of which (26.7%) were funded totally or partially by industry. Out of the 48 RCTs, 17 were industry-funded (35.4%).

A current German review  Methodological quality of systematic reviews on influenza vaccination.   Fourty-six systematic reviews fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Average methodological quality was high  but variability was large (AMSTAR range: 0-11). Quality did not differ significantly according to vaccination target group. Cochrane reviews had higher methodological quality than non-Cochrane reviews (p=0.001).  this was due to better study selection and data extraction, inclusion of unpublished studies, and better reporting of study characteristics (all p<0.05).

20/1/2014   Protecting us from the new year northern hemisphere viruses:   natural antibiotics- Vitamins C & D: avoiding vitamin denialism as cause of more deaths.

Abstract: The Semmelweis  Reflex is about rejecting, deriding important new scientific discoveries or any serious sincere statement/action.    I didnt  fully appreciate the importance of that  age-old human  (mostly male) evil – mocking, martyrdom  and murder by denialism-  until I started this review of the current flu season threat and the role of supplements, and researched  pioneer medical martyrs Drs Ignaz Semmelweis, Jack Drummond  and Linus Pauling  as  paradigms of the scourge of modern vested-interest denialism and falsehoods, in medicine as much as politics, religion etc..

In fact,  just as it is negligence to deny (as Semmelweis’s persecutors did) gloving up or  properly washing  hands between examining patients , or ensure that every adult has bloodpressure checked occasionally, it is clearly bad practice  not to ensure that everyone – especially the young and old,  takes a multinutrient plus extra vigorous dose vitamins D3 and C, plus some protective herbs- garlic, cinnamon, ginger, origanum; and fish oil and/or coconut oil if not both; and drastically cut down sweetness intake- especially fructose, sucrose  and aspartame that now pervade all mass- produced food and drinks..

update 21 January 2014 : URGENT: THE 2014 FLU EPIDEMIC:     “High H1N1 prevalence and mortality rates a concern:    Type A (H1N1) influenza, the  commonest flu virus in Canada this year, has a higher  than anticipated mortality rate  causing some to wonder if it’s virulence has increased.             The worrisome factor  “is the reported mortality rate,” says  McGill University. As of Jan. 13, there were twenty confirmed deaths in Canada   attributed to H1N1. “There are more deaths than what we expect for the regular H1N1 influenza, The strain this year could be more virulent . 96% of this year’s lab -confirmed influenza is H1N1. The virus is unusual in that it appears to affect younger people more than other strains of seasonal influenza. People  20 to 65 are being hit harder than usual, comprising 52% of flu cases.                                  However, if you look at Europe,  it’s still H3N2. Its an example of how   you never know what the flu is going to do.”           Alberta confirmed a death  on Jan. 8, due to the virus H5N1, an avian virus. The  deceased woman had recently returned from China. The mortality rate is higher with H5N1 than H1N1, “but fortunately, it’s not an easy virus to transmit”. So far, it seems that there are no cases of H5N1 transmission from human-to-human. It seems   like the cases of H5N1 are few and far between and related to contact with birds in  China.     Patrick Janukavicius, Montréal, Quebec.  In the same period, at least 20 children have reportedly died of the same strain in USA.

update 12 Jan 2014  THE ANTIFLU VACCINE DECEPTION: this review by Doc Joe Mercola     stresses the disease-mongering myths,  futility and risks in real life of flu vaccination  and antiflu drugs eg Tamiflu ; and the overwhelming importance of natural immune boosters like Vit D3 & C, zinc, selenium,  herbs, and hygienic prevention.

1 Jan 2014  CURRENT INFLUENZA STATUSThe  22 December  solstice is the sun at its southern nadir seen from planet Earth, the onset respectively of real winter in the Northern hemisphere, and real summer in South Africa. Last year   the Gregorian New Year heralded a fierce flu season in the northern hemisphere, and as usual feathered- and jet-propelled  air travel brought the corresponding surge at the bottom of Africa.

And ominously, the Plagues & Pandemics   (Howard Phillips 2012) of temperate climates  that did so much historically  to mould global demography not least  the past 360 years in South Africa ( -STDS- pox, bubonic, polio, cholera, influenza, and now  tuberculosis, Mad Cow disease, and   HIV-AIDS). and especially antibiotic-resistant germs – are all on the increase despite (or because of) the increasingly futile $trillion armamentarium of 20th century designer vaccines and other antimicrobials.. 

Pneumonia is a welcome   friend of the old, often rapidly relieving prolonged degenerative incapacity;  such ending mostly by virus respiratory infection  the gateway for the  final bacterial infection.  

Unlike the  selflimited coronavirus common cold, breath-and hand-borne type A  influenza, although usually mild in the well,  is the commonest trigger in the frail.  Many  of us in our (grand)parents’ time lost relatives in the 1918/1919 “Spanish”  H1N1  flu pandemic. But that was a unique  global catastrophe because it killed mostly  armies  of healthy men, and then  young working adults, apparently from cytokine storm, with 30 % of the workforce out for up to3 weeks if not  20% mortality.  This is harrowingly described in the recently published   Letters ( to his Mother) of Dr Arthur Conan Doyle, who lost – apart from his first wife to TB- more young relatives to the  flu  than to warfare.

The recent spring  months here – apart from seasonal allergies -have seen declining viral respiratory illness in Cape Town, with the  upper respiratory accent often shifted down to more gastritis-enteritis .

But New Year 2014   UK and northern North America forecast  and are having a  wet if not white New Year.  ‘Flu rates are reported already high  and rising  in USA and Canadamostly influenza A H1N1(swine-avian flu-the main 1918/19 killer); including already 6 deaths in USA and 3 in Canada.

but not in Europe, where  the influenza (A > B) prevalence is still low and slightly more H3N2 than H1N1;  in UK there has rather been been increase in RSV respiratory syncytial virus bronchitis in infants. .  .

In fact by 28 December the exploding H1N1 deathtoll had hit 13 in Texas alone; especially in youths; with increasing Tamiflu resistance reported eg in Missisippi.. On 24 Dec the USA CDC mailed an emergency Advisory Notice to Clinicians: Early Reports of pH1N1-Associated Illnesses for the 2013-14 Influenza Season: From November through December 2013, CDC has received a number of reports of severe respiratory illness among young and middle-aged adults, many of whom were infected with influenza A pH1N1 pdm09 virus. Multiple pH1N1-associated hospitalizations, including many requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and some fatalities have been reported.  While it is not possible to predict which influenza viruses will predominate during the entire 2013-14 influenza season, pH1N1 has been the predominant circulating virus so far. For the 2013-14 season, if pH1N1 virus continues to circulate widely, illness that disproportionately affects young and middle-aged adults may occur. 

Our  regional  South African Communicable Diseases Institute says H1N1 was documented here from April to September. But of 2566 pts with severe respiratory illness for January to October 2013 enrolled and tested at the five sentinel sites, only 6% were positive for influenza – mostly virus -H1N1. A pneumonia case in Cape Town was found to be due to Leigionnaire’s.

Now from China 147 human cases of avian influenza H7N9 have been confirmed including 48 deaths. – especially from poultry contact. No vaccine is currently available for avian influenza (H7N9) virus.

SAPA–AFP, 10 December 2013:  Resistant flu virus keeps contagiousness.  A mutant form of the H7N9 flu virus that is resistant to frontline drugs is just as contagious as its non-resistant counterpart, according to a study, published inthe journal Nature Communications.  The virus has claimed dozens of  lives since its outbreak in February. H7N9 is believed to have spread to humans from poultry, where it circulates naturally. The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on its website that “so far”, no evidence has emerged of  “sustained” transmission of H7N9 among people.

And H7N1 and H7N7 has broken out in ostriches in South Africa,

So never mind the  common cold  coronaviruses and many other prevalent infections, increased caution is due against all common diseases at this season- both the USA H1N1 swine flu circulating the past few years,  and now the Chinese H7N9 flu. . And the MERS-Co Virus Middle-East SARS-type outbreak has not gone away… 9 new cases reported the past week or two  from the KSA alone .-the-deadly-middle-east-coronavirus-outbreak/

A  current NEJM  has a new report of a trial of quadrivalent Vaccine for Prevention of Mild and Moderate-to-Severe Influenza in Children by vaccine manufacturers GSK. The vaccine reduced severity by perhaps 70%- but at a cost of 1.5% serious adverse events, 50% more than the control group (hepatitis A vaccine only).                                                                                    The question remains- why risk  flu vaccine’s ~1.5% serious adverse events when a single high dose of vitamin D3  300 000iu  even just annually, and regular vitamin C with a multivite  including zinc and selenium (at trivial cost ) largely cover one  against a multitude of infections including AIDS and TB, and all degenerative health   problems?


Is it coincidence, or divine evolution, that we have had available at low cost  for about 60 year (never mind zinc,  selenium, iron, iodine, vitamins A and vitamin E) two safe natural major antimicrobials in vigorous safe dose   –  vitamins  C and D3?  Medico-Pharma Big Business and governments have been heavily discrediting and ruthlessly suppressing these  for their own profiteering vested interest  even as plagues of HIV, TB,  influenza rage, and Big Business determinedly profits hugely from killer  smoking and alcohol sales despite increasing  marketing restriction?   South Africa- a major producer of alcohol and tobacco-smoke, and fossil-fuel-burning power stations, factories and motorvehicles – continues to lead the world with  the highest road and respiratory death rates  despite zealous attempts to reduce their lethal  use.

Apart from optimal hygiene including  avoiding livestock  and poultry contact, smoking, alcoholism and pollution including  swimming and sick buildings- air-conditioning-           what can we take  to minimize avoidable influenza  ie immune depletion risk? apart from enough  sunshine, exercise, rest, sleep, walking barefoot, not carrying a cellphone,   and good mixed fresh organic diet? The clinical benefit of influenza vaccines is anything but proven, and the adverse risks appreciable.

Big Business and thus governments  and the media  profit from illness, so they keep publishing articles promoting Big Business: new antibiotics, vaccines  and other synthetic drugs that do not prevent or cure but if anything perpetuate chronic degenerative obesity-diabetes-vascular-respiratory,- digestive-arthritic-cancer diseases; – and  GMO-genetically modified preserved  food  and bottled drinks stuffed with slow poisons like refined cornstarch – fructose; salt; sucrose and cereals, soya,  Roundup, antibiotics, preservatives, estrogenics,  aspartame,  and especially boiled and baked omega6 and sugars;  instead of marine omega3 and MCT- medium chain triglyceride virgin coconut oil, and unrefined cereals eg oats, wholewheat bread etc..  

Big Business and it’s cash-cow  Disease Industry decries  the natural healthgiving lowsugar Asian/ Mediterranean  diet-organically pastured and grown livestock meat and dairy products, lightly cooked if not raw (oily)  fish,  fruit and nuts, coloured veggies,  and plenty of  oils in their natural plant form. These were  the norm till food processing became Big Business in our lifetime post WW2, and the developed world was bluffed by Organized Medicine, the Food Barons and Big Pharma  with the masterly fiction of Ancel Keyes, into jettisoning the natural longevity “sea and farm” diet of the east eg Japan, and West eg Mediterranean (fresh produce & cholesterol-rich dairyproducts, meat and fish)  for the Diet Deception (Gary Taubes, Tim Noakes) and Bad Pharma ( James le Fanu, Ben Goldacre) of Ancel Keyes‘  low-fat high-refined cereals, margarine; and  the cholesterol -busting and psychotropes/ painkillers /antidementia/antivascular/ antidiabetic disease Designer Drugs-for-all  myths.

It spends multimillions promoting alcohol,  smoking and ever-newer designer prescription drugs and vaccine, and  disinformation on old well-proven cheap drugs like  reserpine, amilozide, metformin,  natural physiological  human hormone replacement,  natural antioxidants and anti-inflammatories ,  and decrying  ineffective but deliberately lowdose and isolated or imbalanced  vitamins and minerals .

The ATBC vits A+E trial  (isolated highdose vits A and E) was  one such  farce in very high risk smokers in an icy climate. . Others have been the recent Norwegian trial using only up to 1000iu vit D supplement a day,

and the current Annals Int Medicine editorial  review of three new articles condemning multisupplements: , on which Mike Howard publishes a scathing critique -

*a commercial multisupplement in the TACT  post-heart attack trial - but the composition of the multisupplement  included only deficiency-disease prevention microdoses of micronutrients including 100iu vitamin D3/d and equally negligible vitamin K-  not pharmacological doses of key vitamins eg vits B, C, D & K2 that are well proven to greatly reduce infections and chronic degenerative diseases ;

* the  Physicians’ Health Study  randomized elderly professional men  to placebo or combinations of vitamin C (500 mg synthetic ascorbic acid), vitamin E (400 IU of synthetic alpha-tocopherol), beta-carotene (50 mg Lurotin), and a multivitamin (Centrum Silver - this included  anti-deficiency disease low dose of all common vits and minerals BUT   only 400iu Vit D3),   .

* The third study- on lowdose (traditional anti-deficiency disease) Vitamin and Mineral Supplements in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer was simply a literature review of 26 best-quality  published trials of microdoses – not pharmacological safe macrodoses.

ie these  three trials published in this  Annals Internal Medicine issue to please Big Pharma advertisors to discredit supplements shared the usual problem of now well-known futile lowdose supplement doses  at least of vitamins D3 and K, if not also vitamin C in the multigram dose scientifically promoted by the Drs  Stone- Klenner-Pauling followers.

Sir Jack Cecil  Drummond (1891-1952) was one of the world’s pioneer 20th century  biochemists and nutritionists in UK,  from  1916- 1952 discovering or defining  and promoting  under his world-famous biochemist professors Rosenheim, Halliburton and Funk the role especially  of vits A, B, C  and E. Thanks to his and Churchill’s forceful vision and foresight, he oversaw  food supply and diet  and thus keeping Britons healthy through and after WW2. He was  so successful in promoting healthy cheap and unpatentable micronutrients and natural fresh food  (in the face of the mushrooming megaprofit  processed food  and designer drug industry) that it  speculatively led to his and his family’s  1952 assassination by competing interests  in France -The Vitamin Murders, Fergusson 2007. .

        MURDER BY DENIALISM: It is incontrovertible   common cause that irrational and often jealous medical denialism costs endless lives:
* Scurvy prevention:  Dr James Lind (who did the first ever recorded clinical trial) showed by 1750 that sailors’ scurvy on long sea voyages  was preventable; but  despite his pioneer discovery, the British navy cost the lives of thousands more seamen from scurvy when the Admirals  neglected for 50years until the Napoleonic Wars to supply the fresh produce-  eg limes – that rapidly cured and prevented the lethal scourge.

This despite the fact that another UK navy surgeon Dr John Woodall had already over 130 years earlier- by 1617 – published in UK  The Surgeon’s Mate stating We have in our owne country here many excellent remedies generally knowne,- Scurvy-grasse, Horse-Reddish roots, Nasturtia Aquatica, Wormwood, Sorrell, and many other good meanes… to the cure of those at home…and Sea-men returned from farre who by the only natural disposition of the fresh aire and amendment of diet, nature herselfe in effect doth the Cure (of scurvy- for which antiscorbutic citrus had been known since antiquity) without other helps. the Lemmons, Limes, Tamarinds, Oranges, and other choice of good helps in the Indies… do farre exceed any that can be carried tither from England.

* Childbed fever prevention:  in 1865  Dr Ignaz Semmelweis (1818 -’65) an AustroHungarian Roman Catholic ob-gyne in Vienna, was locked up, and beaten to death  within weeks, because he showed – to the outrage of his peers- that handwashing with chlorinated lime eradicated the epidmic puerperal fever (three times that in the midwives’ ward)  in  the  doctors’ labour wards; 70years before Thir Reich terrorists took charge, his senior colleagues reacted violently to his progressive promotion of (what was already more advanced British and  French) hygiene and science, and his urging them to wash their hands after examining corpses before examining women in labour..  .  Tragically for Semmelweis and new mothers in the Hapsburg empire then,  Pasteur (b 1822) and Lister (b 1827) ‘s germ antiseptic discoveries  were already being implemented further west, but  had not yet been publicized.

    *metformin after centuries of use as an antidiabetic herb galega officinalis,  and its extraction as an antidiabetic in 1922, came into increasing use globally from the 1950s as the best treatment for type 2 diabetes, but the USA- to protect their own new patent antidiabetic  drugs – ruthlessly suppressed  its use there (like that of the natural salt lithium for manic depression)  for 40years till the mid-1990s.

     *AIDS and ART denialism: until  5 years  ago in South Africa   the  overwhelming-majority “people’s”  government  (with the country’s vast resources),  and its successive  “health”  ministers,   cost the lives of an estimated 300 000  AIDS victims through sufferers  – indigent state dependents-  being denied  antiretroviral ART  drugs, (never mind still till now denied quality education and civil  security,  and thus    adequate basic nutrition, and meaningful housing,  jobs and thus hope.)  Genocidal AIDS denialism about which the still-ruling (since 1994) leadership cadre did nothing until under  intense  international pressure and repeated Constitutional Court orders, combined with political rival factioneering in the ruling party,   they  ousted the denialist president and his denialist Disease Minister in 2008.


VIGOROUS VITAMIN C ASCORBIC ACID  PHARMACOTHERAPY : Much effort and Big Pharma money  has been  spent to denigrate the irrefutable science-based work   (between their advocacy years shown) of Drs Irvine Stone (1934-1984), Fred Klenner(1948-74) and Linus Pauling (1970-1991) of  antibiotic dose >50 to 1000 mg/kg/d pure vitamin C (not the antiscurvy  10mg/d)  – as a universally needed essential in primates. We primats,  like guineapigs and a few birds and fish species,  are among the few  that do not make their own since we  lost the needed gene and thus enzyme in our evolution..

It took about 150 years after Lind’s publication for the antiscorbutic factor to be named as vitamin C by Dr Jack Drummond, another 10 years for it to be assayed and its structure proven- but despite the pioneering clinical work of Dr Fred Klenner in the 1950s proving the lifesaving benefit of tens of grams a day intravenously, it took another 20 years before Dr Linus Pauling  took up Dr Irvine Stone’s conviction and put highdose vitamin C  on the world Nobel prize map; just on Pubmed,  vitamin C has >51 000 citations  since 1921, and intravenously in 763 entries  since 1946, with  Dr Fred  Klenner reporting  it intravenously  asmajor antibiotic in the Southern Medical journal from 1948..

The 2009 book  Injectable Vitamin C and the Treatment of Viral and Other Diseases collection  of  medical journal papers from the 1930s to 2006 details the exhaustive scientific evidence proving the uniform benefit of even 1gm a day vit C both as an antimicrobial antiinflammatory antioxidant  and immunomodulator against major crippling / lethal diseases from polio to tuberculosis, pneumonia, hepatitis, rabies, encephalitis, neuritis, poisoning, cancer, and pancreatitis;                                                                                   

          and the persistent resistance of the FDA and other multinational Regulators to recognize (so as to protect their domestic patent drug manufacturers- Big Pharma and their politician and civil service lobbyists )- such uniquely safe and effective natural drug therapy.         The final chapters of that 2009 book pose the crucial questions of overwhelming vested interest by the organized medical – hospital -pharmaceutical mega-industry and governments in not eradicating preventable disease, the Big Pharma banning of natural effective remedies-  The Origin of the 42-Year Stonewall of Vitamin C, and Medical Resistance to Innovation,

The  University of Oregon,  the  Riordan-Gonzalez group and more recently Hemila and Chaker‘ and Ullah et al’ s 2012 reviews have  published much  validating what Drs Goodall, Lind, Drummond, Stone, Klenner, Pauling and Cameron started.

VIGOROUS   VITAMIN D3 CHOLECALCIFEROLPHARMACOTHERAPY  costing wholesale ~ <US$0.5/month for ~200 000iu /month  in South Africa)  reduces serious infection by perhaps 90% ie 9fold: . eg 80iu/kg/d – 500iu/d (15000u/month) for an infant, 50 000iu/wk or 200 000iu/mo for an adult; who if obese, may need two  to three times the average dose, to achieve the (?) optimal 25OH vit D level of around 70ng/ml for health, higher for any acute or chronic chronic illness.

The modern prophets of vitamin D3 have been the three pre-WW2 doyens :

Prof Chris E Nordin (MB ChB 1950) working in bone physiology for 60 years now; 84 papers on vitamin D on Pubmed 

Prof Walter Stumpf (1927-2012; MD 1952) the recently deceased  professor at North Carolina University, neuropsychiatrist and radiobiologist  in his 60year medical career with over 500 publications (76 on Vit D on Pubmed) including early discovering that vitamin D targets all systems and diseases; professor-walter-e-stumpf-ahead-of-his-time/ and http://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/tag/stumpf-dr-walter/

paralled by Prof Robert Heaney (MD 1951) at Creighton University, osteoporosis and nutrition authority with 119 vitamin D papers on Pubmed since 1982, over 400 publications to date;

succeeded by Prof Mike Holick (PhD 1971, MD 1976) with 391 publications on vitamin D since 1970 on Pubmed, who has done more than most to show that the maximum daily body production of vitamin D3 with plenty of sunlight is enough to prevent rickets and reduce all disease, but nowhere near the pharmacologically therapeutic 80iu/kg/d needed to maintain a vigorous all-disease protective bloodlevel of 60-100ng/ml.

and Dr John Cannell (MD 1976, registered psychiatrist from 1993, nutritionalist), a  legendary whistleblower .   who successively campaigned against  #cigarette smoking; and  uncovered:   # the cigarette-smoking  (Black Lung) compensationitis fraud of miners’ pneumoconiosis;          #the fictitious inflated “above national average” school results (Lake Woebegone)  that all states were inventing and  reporting (as is still happening – mass government deception- in South Africa) ;  then the  
# recovered memory therapy (RMT) scandal – a form of psychotherapy in which patients recovered memories of abuse that they had no previous memory of. Such therapy resulted in false memory syndrome (FMS) of events that never occurred as well as an epidemic of multiple personality disorder (MPD), a rare disorder historically conceived of as being a hysterical disorder.  Unfortunately, many MPD patients believed the psychiatrist conducting the RMT and went home to falsely accuse their parents and others of horrendous acts that never occurred. Cannell teamed up with two Harvard professors to write a peer reviewed paper on RMT, debunking the witch-hunt;                                                                               then since the 1990s researching and promoting  # vitamin D deficiency as major cause of much psychopathology including autism, and vigorous vitamin D therapy to correct multiple diseases, through the Vitamin D Council. He has (co)authored some 13 papers, and published a book. .

Now a major longterm German Cancer Research screening program has just publishd   the 2002-2013 ESTHER study (Perna ea) of 10 000 citizens followed with serial 25OH vit D  levels; to assess the association of apparently unsupplemented vit D levels with fatal and nonfatal CVD in the same study population.  Follow-up data, including survival status, up to over 9  years. Comparing subjects with 25(OH)D levels below 12ng/ml and above 20ng/ml resulted in the lower vitamin D level cohort showing a higher hazard ratio of 1.27 (95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.54) for total CVD and 1.62 (1.07-2.48) for fatal CVD in a model adjusted for important potential confounders. No significant association for nonfatal CVD was observed. In dose-response analysis, we observed an increased cardiovascular risk at 25(OH)D levels below 30ng/ml. Results for CHD and stroke were comparable to the results obtained for the composite outcome CVD. Our results support evidence that low 25(OH)D levels are associated with moderately increased risk of CVD, BUT  the observed association is much stronger for fatal than for nonfatal events.

But the benefit of sunlight in healing tuberculosis has been used for well over a century; while the Google antibiotic benefit of calciferol on Pubmed goes back at least to 1950.

In a prospective 16 mo trial in press from Australia, vit D3 even just 60 000iu/month (ie 2000iu/day) halved antibiotic use in seniors.  (Tran, Neale  ea 2014) Effect of vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic use: a randomized controlled trial.

Since the toxic dose of vitamin D long term  reportedly may be as high as 600 000iu/day or a blood level well >150ng/l , imagine how much better the antimicrobial benefit of vitamin D3 at 80 to 100iu/kg/day or pro rata – even higher eg 10 000+iu/day for obese people who sequester more vit D in fat. .

Dr Robert F  Cathcart wrote 30 to 20 years ago in  Med Hypotheses. 1981 Vitamin C, titrating to bowel tolerance, anascorbemia, and acute induced scurvy   The amount of oral ascorbic acid tolerated by a patient without producing diarrhea increase somewhat proportionately to the stress or toxicity of his disease. Bowel tolerance doses of ascorbic acid ameliorate the acute symptoms of many diseases. Lesser doses often have little effect on acute symptoms but assist the body in handling the stress of disease and may reduce the morbidity of the disease. However, if doses of ascorbate are not provided to satisfy this potential draw on the nutrient, first local tissues involved in the disease, then the blood, and then the body in general becomes deplete of ascorbate (Anascorbinemia and Acute Induced Scurvy). The patient is thereby put at risk for complications of metabolic processes known to be dependent upon ascorbate.                     1984 Vitamin C in the treatment of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). evidence is that massive doses of ascorbate (50-200 grams per 24 hours) suppress the symptoms of the disease and can markedly reduce secondary infections. In combination with usual treatments for the secondary infections, large doses of ascorbate will often produce a clinical remission which shows every evidence of being prolonged if treatment is continued. .. despite continuing laboratory evidence of helper T-cell suppression. There may be a complete or partial destruction of the helper T-cells during an initial infection that does not necessitate a continuing toxicity from some source to maintain a permanent or prolonged helper T-cell suppression. However, it is possible ascorbate may prevent that destruction if used adequately during that prodrome period. Emphasis is put on the recognition and treatment of the frequent intestinal parasites. Food and chemical sensitivities occur frequently in the AID syndrome and may aggravate symptoms considered to be part of the AID syndrome. A topical C-paste has been found very effective in the treatment of herpes simplex and, to a lesser extent, in the treatment of some Kaposi’s lesions.  Increasingly, clinical research on other methods of treating AIDS is being “contaminated” by patients taking ascorbate.                                                     1991 A unique function for Vitamin C is as reducing substance,  electron donor. When vitamin C donates its two high-energy electrons to scavenge free radicals, much of the resulting dehydroascorbate is re-reduced to vitamin C and therefore used repeatedly. Conventional wisdom is correct in that only small amounts of vitamin C are necessary for this function because of its repeated use. The point missed is that the limiting part in nonenzymatic free radical scavenging is the rate at which extra high-energy electrons are provided through NADH to re-reduce the vitamin C and other free radical scavengers. When ill, free radicals are formed at a rate faster than the high-energy electrons are made available. Doses of vitamin C as large as 1-10 g per 24 h do only limited good. However, when ascorbate is used in massive amounts, such as 30-200+ g per 24 h, these amounts directly provide the electrons necessary to quench the free radicals of almost any inflammation, and reduces NAD(P)H and therefore  provide the high-energy electrons necessary to reduce the molecular oxygen used in the respiratory burst of phagocytes. In these functions, the ascorbate part is mostly wasted but the necessary high-energy electrons are provided in large amounts.

A recent review from Atlanta Kearns ea found 30 papers which aggregate to show that annual vitamin   D3 dose (not D2) of  optimally 300 000 to 500 000iu (wholesale cost ~R5 in South Africa)  for deficient adults is best for avoiding poor patient compliance with minimal risk and major benefit.

THE INFERIORITY OF VITAMIN D2 SUPPLEMENT: It should be noted that the long-used Lennon’s Strong Calciferol datasheet  (1974 updated 2004) does not indicate that this 50 000iu tablet labelled ‘calciferol’  is in fact vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol), not the fourfold more potent cholecalciferol D3 formed by sunlight in the skin. This is disclosed only on the Lennons website.. and in the South African Medicines Formulary.  So ‘Strong Calciferol’ in South Africa (actually  the D2 not D3 form of calciferol) is convenient but seriously deceptive mislabeling-  much weaker than the ideal vitamin D3, and therefore its effect unpredictable compared to D3- in fact Dierkes ea Norway show that  giving D2 may actually lower 25OH vit D level in the blood..   Sadly, despite this being reported to the local manufacturers and authorities, no correction of the clinically serious misperception created by the Strong Calciferol label and insert has been issued  to health practitioners by the Medicines Control Council and the manufacturer Aspen-Lennons. 

A recent 8yr study in Cape Town blacks   Reciprocal seasonal variation in vitamin D status and tuberculosis notifications in South Africa Martineau, Nhamoyebonde ,Wilkinson ea   confirmed that vitamin D deficiency (serum 25(OH)D <20 mg/L) is associated with susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) in HIV-uninfected people in Cape Town as it is Europe. Vitamin D deficiency was present in 62.7% of 370 participants and was associated (OR ~5.4)  with active TB in both HIV-uninfected  and HIV-infected -(P < 0.001) people. Vitamin D status varied according to season:  25(OH)D concentration was double in summer-January- March compared to winter (23 vs 12ng/l; P < 0.001). Reciprocal seasonal variation in TB notifications was observed:lowest in autumn  and highest in spring October through December (4,2 vs. 5; P < 0.001). Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent among black Africans in Cape Town and is associated with susceptibility to active TB both in the presence and absence of HIV infection.

Antimicrobial implications of vitamin D is detailed by Youssef,  Peiris ea (USA  Dermato-Endocrinol  2011)   against all microorganisms – viruses, fungi, bacteria, protozoa  (except perhaps leishmaniasis)  as both profound prevention and therapy; in many cases without commercially invented marketed antimicrobials to which there is growing and deadly  microbial resistance, let alone toxicity.. There is evidence that seasonal vitamin D deficiency  status contributed greatly to the 1918/19 flu-pneumonia pandemic (Grant & Giovannucci 2009).

and finally, a month ago JAMA published from Marianna  Baum,  Richard Marlink ea the universities of Miami, Harvard and Florida  Effect of Micronutrient Supplementation on Disease Progression in Asymptomatic  Antiretroviral-Naive HIV-Infected Adults in Botswana A Randomized Clinical Trial,  that Micronutrient deficiencies occur early in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and supplementation with micronutrients may be beneficial; however, its effectiveness has not been investigated early in HIV disease among adults who are antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive.  2 year supplementation with either daily vitamins BCo,  C and E, selenium alone, or B,C,E with selenium vs placebo: study  conducted in 878 patients infected with HIV subtype C with a CD4 cell count greater than 350/μL who were not receiving ART between  2005 and July 2009.  Results  participants receiving the combined supplement of vitamins plus selenium vs placebo had half the  risk of reaching CD4 cell count 250/μL or less (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.46); and secondary events of combined outcomes for disease progression  or AIDS-related death, whichever occurred earlier [adjusted HR, 0.56); . There was no effect of supplementation on HIV viral load. Multivitamins alone and selenium supplementation alone were not statistically different from placebo for any end point. Reported adverse events were adjudicated  unlikely  related to the intervention, and there were no notable differences in incidence of HIV-related and health-related events among study groups.Conclusions and Relevance  In ART-naive HIV-infected adults, 24-month supplementation with a single supplement containing vitamins BCo,C,E and selenium was safe and significantly reduced the risk of immune decline and morbidity. Micronutrient supplementation may be effective when started in the early stages of HIV disease.

THE PARADOX OF THE GLUCOSE- ASCORBIC ACID- CHOLESTEROL- STEROID CASCADE:              Is it coincidence, or  evolution, that the basic animal fast-energy circulating anabolic substrates are glucose, fatty acids and aminoacids?   from which basic glucose C6H12O6 ( from ingested  fructose C6H12O6 and sucrose C12H22O11, or fats or protein)  the liver manufactures the basic cardinal steroid  cholesterol C27H46O.     Then from cholesterol we metabolize by adding or splitting off carbon molecules  the crucial anabolic and regulating  human hormones-                                                                                                                    1. ouabain C29H44O12  the  adrenal hormone  made also  in the hypothalamus and heart ; adrenal),                                                                                                                                           2.  active calciferol C27H44O the strengthening and reproductive secosteroid;                                                                                                                                   3 the prime sex/ reproductive steroids  pregnenolone C21H32o2,  and thence progesterone C21H30O2,  testosterone C19H28O2, DHEA C19H24O2. and thence estradiol C18H24O2. and                                                       4 the prime adrenal mineralo/glucocorticoid steroids  cortisol C21H30O5, aldosterone C21H28O5.

But we primates and a few other species lost the ability to synthetise on demand in quantities of grams a day the crucial vitamin C ascorbic acid C6H8O6 that is key to all the above.                                                                                            And vested interests in the Disease Industry want us to believe the biological nonsense  heresy  that we must ingest minimal unprocessed foods- cholesterol, fats (especially dairy, marine oil Omega3 and medium-chain triglyceride- coconut oil)   and abundant vitamins C and D3, but eat abundant processed foods-  refined plant Omega6,  refined carbs- fructose,  sucrose, fruit juice,  cooldrinks, cereals, confections- which overload causes insulin resistance and thus lipidemia,  obesity- metabolic syndrome -diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease.

The Semmelweis reflexA current Wiki essay sums up the current genocidal problems of deliberate deceptions/denialism in Diet, Vitamins and causality  – for ruthless profit and possibly cynical eugenics: “The Semmelweis  effect is a metaphor for the reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence or new knowledge because it contradicts established norms, beliefs or paradigms.The term originated from the saga of Dr Ignaz Semmelweis, who discovered that childbed fever mortality rates reduced ten-fold when doctors washed their hands with a chlorine solution before examining  patients. His hand-washing suggestions were rejected by his contemporaries, often for non-medical reasons. For instance, some doctors refused to believe that a gentleman’s hands could transmit disease (see Contemporary reaction to Ignaz Semmelweis).   In his book The Game of Life, Timothy Leary provided the following polemical definition of the Semmelweis reflex: “Mob behavior found among primates and larval hominids on undeveloped planets, in which a discovery of important scientific fact is punished”. The expression has found way into philosophy and religious studies as “unmitigated Humean skepticism concerning causality“.[2]“

Idealism, ethics may evolve; but the  problem of  human bigotry, self-interest and subjective ie personal bias do not diminish, they spread.  It is classic that Semmelweis  (1818-1865) the observant innovative  Catholic medical scientist of his time (before microbes and antiseptics   were known) was fatuously condemned  not just by his jealous  competing Vienna colleagues,  but even by his progressive and reformist  Copenhagen  contemporary obgyn Prof Carl Levy (1808-1865)- who outlived him by only 4 months;

ironically at the same time that their Copenhagen contemporary Dr Soren Kierkegaard (1813-1855) was increasingly  isolating himself on the lonely ethical journey  against the convenience lazzez- faire  tide, writing for ethical life and religion against the hypocrisy  of the Church and becoming the father of both reformist theology and psychology. But unlike Semmelweis who was way ahead of the bioscience  and humanity of his time, Kierkegaard stuck to and isolated himself in   promoting the incompatible ie  blind-faith-based   religion – the dilemma of Abraham’s conviction (or delusion)  to sacrifice his son-  and ethical morality;

and closely followed by    Rudolph Steiner (1861-1925) another more  profound European  thinker who bridged  science, spirituality, progressive education, architecture, agriculture, natural medicine, nutrition,    and   social  reform;

contrary to the rationalists of the 19th Century “Age of Enlightenment” and since, like   British historian-philosopher -ethicist  Winwood Reade (1838 – 1875)  who published the enduring secularist’s bible The Martyrdom of Man (1872), of which  Churchill wrote  25 years later  “he was right but wrong to say it” on the book’s critique of the wrongs of war and religion, of mankind’s selfishness, corruption  and destructiveness (by the greedy aggressive acquisitive minority)  against the  weak masses and the environment) that carries on worse in the 21st century than even the 20th century;                                                                                                                                          and    150 years later bioscientist and philosopher Stephen Jay Gould (1941-2002) rationalized sadly   the non-overlapping Magisteria of Science and Faith, objective “provable” science – which in fact is seldom immutably constant as is mathematics-  and purely faith-based  “unprovable” religious belief.

It was only a year ago that Richard Conniff published his column on   Strange Behaviours, The Medical Martyrs. And the medical  hero martyrs in this review-  Semmelweis,  Margaret Sanger, Drummond  and Pauling –  never made it onto his list.

But then nor did  the modern medical  freedom fighters  Steve Biko,  Agostinho Neto,  Che Guevera. Jonas Savimbi, Neil Aggett, and the living spouse of Steve Biko, Dr Mamphele Ramphele….

Women of the Century apart (like Margaret Sanger, Marie Curie, Eleanor Roosevelt, Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi,  Helen Keller, Benazir BhuttoMother Theresa, Aung San Suu Kyi -many of whom have been martyred),                 it is a philosophical debate whether among the men  the medical martyr  Semmelweis (1818-1865) ranks with  his  19thC contemporaries-   Lincoln (1809-1865), Kierkegaard(1813-1855), Pasteur (1822-95), Lister (1827-1912)  ;  and his successors (and 20th C  leading achievers): Koch(1843-1910), Edison(1847-1931), Steiner (1861-1925), Gandhi(1869-1948),  Weizmann(1874-1952), Churchill (1874-1965), Einstein (1875-1955), Jung (1875-1961), FD Roosevelt(1882-1945), JK Galbraith(1908-2006), Martin Luther King (1929-68), Pauling and Mandela   as arguably giant enduring male leaders -innovators-  teachers and achievers  of the past two centuries.

Unlike eg Socrates, Hippocrates  and Jesus of Nazareth, one of the  five greatest polymath medical and ethical sages of all time Rabbi Dr Moses Maimonides (RamBam)  avoided martyrdom by burying himself in practicing selfless medical service for sultan and peasants alike, and jurisprudence   for his GreekoRoman based  Islamic-Sephardic   times and philosophy, like his guru predecessor Avicenna and his contemporary savant Averroes. .

CONCLUSION:   Today it can  be argued that the denial of effective phamacotherapeutic doses of especially  vitamins C and D3, let alone supportive doses of balancing vits (A, B1,3,5,6,9 & 12, E and K2); the often-crucially  deficient minerals (eg magnesium, sulphur, phosphate, iodine, zinc and selenium), and biologicals like human transdermal balanced HRT, coenzyme Q10, alphalipoic acid, milk thistle, cinnamon, fish oil, chondroglucosamine, DMSO, coconut oil,  is a repetition of denialism of the germ theory,  and of optimal physiological human micronutrition as well as macronutrition. .

      – especially when patients are poor and thus malnourished, and plagued by diarrhoea and stress, TB, lipidemic vascular disease and cancer; and when antiretroviral ART- although life-saving- is even more diabetogenic and neurotoxic  than untreated AIDs.

Even transdermal administration is  better than nothing, perhaps  better  (for the frail and noncompliant eg oldies) than oral or injection eg of vitamins D3 & C and progesterone , metformin, (in addition to the usual magnesium chloride, vits A, BCo & E)  may be beneficial whether by patch or cream for both healing, infection, calming,  heart, circulation, infection, arthritis, osteoporosis,   and neuritis, applied under coconut oil,  codliver oil and DMSO as further analgesic, anti-inflammatory,  memory and absorption enhancers.

REFERENCES:     New reviews bear out the major benefits of micronutrient supplements selenium,  zinc, silver, vits A, B, C, D, E;  and DMSO, sutherlandia and aloe  against HIV-AIDs. and co-infection;

Micronutrient supplementation for children with HIV infection. Irlam JH,  Rollins NC ea . Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013 Oct 11;10:CD010666.

Effect of micronutrient supplementation on disease progression in asymptomatic, antiretroviral-naive, HIV-infected adults in Botswana: a randomized clinical trial.Baum MK,  Marlink R ea .JAMA. 2013 Nov 27;310(20):2154-63. .

Preliminary trial of aloe vera gruel on HIV infection.Olatunya OS,  Oyelami OA. ea, J Altern Complement Med. 2012 Sep;18(9):850-3. doi: 10.1089/acm.2010.0735.

In vitro effects of Sutherlandia frutescens water extracts on cell numbers, morphology, cell cycle progression and cell death in a tumorigenic and a non-tumorigenic epithelial breast cell line.Stander A,  Joubert AM. ea, J Ethnopharmacol. 2009 Jul 6;124(1):45-60

Sulfur in human nutrition and applications in medicine.Parcell S.Altern Med Rev. 2002 ;7(1):22-44.

Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.: Arecaceae): in health promotion and disease prevention.DebMandal M, Mandal S.Asian Pac J Trop Med. 2011 Mar;4(3):241-7

below  are some of the  most recent  94 studies  of vitamin D and human infectionin   published just  in 2013:

New insights on the role of vitamin D in the progression of renal damage: Kidney Blood Press Res. 2013;37:667-78. . Lucisano S, Santoro D.ea  Many studies indicate relationship between hypovitaminosis D and survival, vascular calcification, bone mineral metabolism, immune, cardiovascular and endocrine. Vitamin D analogs reduces proteinuria, in particular through suppression of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) and exerts anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory effects. In particular vitamin D deficiency contribute to an inappropriately activated RAAS, as a mechanism for progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and/or cardiovascular disease. Human and experimental models of CKD showed that vitamin D may interact with B and T lymphocytes and influence the phenotype and function of the antigen presenting cells and dendritic cells, promoting properties that favor the induction of tolerogenic T regulators rather than T effectory. Interstitial fibrosis may be prevented through vitamin D supplementation. .

Should vitamin D supplementation be a regular part of asthma care? Gordon BR.Otolaryngol Clin North Am. 2014 Feb;47:97-108. .Vitamin D (vitD3) deficiency occurs frequently and has profound effects on health, especially asthma.

Vitamin D in asthma and future perspectives.Huang H,  Zarogoulidis K. ea Drug Des Devel Ther. 2013 Sep 23;7:1003-13.

 vitamin D deficiency associated with development of Acinetobacter baumannii infections in critically ill patients?; Türkoğlu M, Aygencel G et al.; Journal of Critical Care 28 (5), 735-40 (Oct 2013)

Association between vitamin D and hepatitis C virus infection: a meta-analysis. Villar LM, Romero-Gomez M. ea World J Gastroenterol. 2013 Sep 21;19(35):5917-24.

Association between prehospital vitamin D status and hospital-acquired bloodstream infections. Quraishi SA, Christopher KB. Ea, Am J Clin Nutr. 2013 Oct;98(4):952-9.

Human parvovirus B19 associated dilated cardiomyopathy. Jain P, Jain A, Khan DN, Kumar M. BMJ Case Rep. 2013 Aug 5;2013.

The role of vitamin D supplementation in the risk of developing pneumonia: three independent case-control studies. Remmelts HH,  van de Garde EM ea  .Thorax. 2013 Nov;68(11):990-6.

Correlation between serum vitamin D level and severity of community acquired pneumonia in young children   Ren J, Sun B, Miao P, Feng X. Zhongguo Dang Dai Er Ke Za Zhi. 2013 Jul;15(7):519-21. Chinese. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23866270

Role of vitamins D, E and C in immunity and inflammation. Shaik-Dasthagirisaheb YB, Pandolfi F. J ea Biol Regul [Correlation between serum vitamin D level and severity of community acquired pneumonia in young children].Homeost Agents. 2013 Apr-Jun;27(2):291-5.

Pre-hospital vitamin D concentration, mortality, and bloodstream infection in a hospitalized patient population.Lange N, Christopher KB ea. Am J Med. 2013 Jul;126(7):640.e19-27.

Vitamin D deficiency in HIV infection: an underestimated and undertreated epidemic. Pinzone MR, Nunnari G. eA Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2013 May;17(9):1218-32.

Vitamin D deficiency and sudden unexpected death in infancy and childhood: a cohort study.Cohen MC, Offiah A, Sprigg A, Al-Adnani M. Pediatr Dev Pathol. 2013 Jul-Aug;16(4):292-300.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 and the risk of pneumonia in an ageing general population.Aregbesola A, Tuomainen TP. ea J Epidemiol Community Health. 2013 ;67:533-6.

Treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis.Nunn A, Phillips PP, Abubakar I.Curr Opin Pulm Med. 2013 ;19(3):273-9.

Role of vitamin D in children with respiratory tract infection.Esposito S, Baggi E, Bianchini S, Marchisio P, Principi N. Int J Immunopathol Pharmacol. 2013 J26(1):1-13.

Tuberculosis incidence correlates with sunshine: an ecological 28-year time series study.Koh GC, Dedicoat M. PLoS One. 2013;8:e57752.

Improving outcomes in patients with psoriasis.Tidman MJ. Practitioner. 2013 ;257:27-30, 3.

vitamin C refs & infection:

Authors’ perspective: What is the optimum intake of vitamin C in humansFrei B, Birlouez-Aragon I, Lykkesfeldt J.  Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr. 2012;52(9):815-29.

Micronutrients at the interface between inflammation and infectionascorbic acid and calciferol. Parts 1 & 2: .Ströhle A, Wolters M, Hahn A. Inflamm Allergy Drug Targets. 2011 ;10:54-74- FULL TEXT IS ON LINE. .

Vitamin C for preventing and treating tetanus Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2008 Apr 16;(2):


Health- slante, l’chaim!, hayah, sawubona! – in any country or language  is a blessing, a gift- not a right. It is insurance that has to be planned and enforced. Leaving it to fate, illness and hoping for a cure is often too late, sometimes crippling if not often  fatal. With comprehensive natural supplements, we can and should all die peacefully at an  active fit advanced  age  90years +  –   not old, incapacitated and demented. We owe this prevention to both ourselves, our  kids and our aging seniors.

So sensible lifestyle aside, promoting health  includes simple low-cost  (no-xray/no-laboratory) periodic screening:  for all,  from childhood:  of weight,  girth, eyes, teeth, bloodpressure, brainfunction- memory; and ultrasound bones – at any pharmacy/ optometrist, school or clinic;                         and  for women:  checking the breasts and pelvis for risk of  cancer.

The HealthSpanLife  South African Natural Medicine Clinic SANMC next to Cavendish Mall on the slopes of Table Mountain in beautiful Cape Town – one of the favourite world tourist  and heritage centres-  is a specialist clinic  staffed by experienced  registered professional practitioners- a medical internist specialist  (also UK registered);  a homeopath;  and a Muslim nursing sister.

It provides  one-stop holistic screening and diagnostics, and – uniquely-  evidence-based  natural remedies- nutritional support for all symptoms and chronic conditions-  also  for menopause-andropause-genitourinary- breast-sexual dysfunction- obesity-pain/headache –chiropractic  and detox ,

as well as if needed  appropriate modern specialized  testing and prescription medicines for all chronic major conditions including bio-identical hormone replacement for both genders (including implants);

and integrated referrals nearby (and in Gauteng)  as patients desire eg for autism, acupuncture, aromatherapy, physiotherapy, aquarobics,  advanced scopes, delicate restorative micro (eg hands, toes)-as well as major (eg bariatric, spinal,eye-, ear- neuro-)  surgery, infertility, xray/other scans, cancer, hyperbaric oxygen, spiritual intervention, psychiatric-hypno- therapy, and eg genetic profiling and counselling,   dialysis and transplantation, and stem cell therapy. …

Gentle Non-xray  ultrasound bone-density measurement (recommended by Cape Town , UK, and USA universities),  and tactile mechanical breast mapping (recommended by CANSA, UK, USA, Indian and Chinese studies) are available at SANMC (and in Gauteng) by appointment, and are covered by some medical aid plans;  whereas menopause consultations are covered by all open plans.

As typified by a new review last month,    World opinion is to use xray  mammography and  xray bone density imaging  only as last resort and only  in the elderly – or in staging those with breast cancer- because of the major problems and risks of xray imaging..   As world experts Profs Cornelia Baines epidemiologist in Canada, Mike Baum breast surgeon  in London and Peter Gotzsche epidemiologist  in Denmark  say,  there never has been any independent scientific evidence to support hazardous routine mass mammography crush xray screening of well women, let alone any repeated mass xray screening for decades, or the dangerous fictitious marketing hype of the American radiology-Breast Surgeons and Curves International nonsense  that xray mammo screening saves lives ..

While health tariffs must rise with inflation,  where med aid doesn’t cover, New Year 15% discount applies through January on cash-paid clinic services and in-house products. . .

For out-of-town/ overseas  visitors, accommodation and travel locally and throughout Africa and beyond can be arranged by outside experts around  clinic appointments. .  http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/visiting/Pages/default.aspx

For appointments visit  the SANMC at 1st floor no.  15 Grove Medical Bldg on Pearce St  cnr Grove Ave (parking opposite at ABSA on Grove);    or  phone +2721-6831465/  -6717415; or fax  +27865657215; or email the manageress, doctors or Sister at   sales@healthspanlife.co.za  to discuss needs,  timing and preliminary costing. For details, references  and rationale for screening and prevention,  see https://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/?s=screening.




Answer: none provided it is safely and economically measured and safely and economically corrected at all ages from small children to dotage. It is so cheap and easy to halve  the fracture risk and rate in all, and thus save vast suffering, costs and especially deaths.

A spinal surgeon laments as we all do  the poor correlation between dual xray bone density analysis DXA and fracture risk.
The simple answer is that bone density is not the top risk factor for fractures,

The chief risk for fractures in the aging is falls and fragility ie global health balance  including agility-co-ordination, balance, and strength- muscle mass.

As this column has previously detailed, DXA is valuable for looking at risk areas in the hip or a vertebra;
but just as screening X-ray mammography overdiagnoses clinically relevant breast cancer,   trunkal DXA measurement  increasingly overreads bone density  as we age because of false densification- vascular calcification overlying hips and spine, and progressive collapse wedging of vertebrae.

That’s why,  as  this column has previously referenced,  QUS -quantified ultrasound – done mostly at the heelbone, has become the international gold standard for monitoring global fracture risk, since that bone measured in its long axis  is generally free of overlying vascular calcification and collapse wedging. It is recommended by  international bodies, many leading universities from Cape Town to Cambridge to Scotland, Japan and USA. .

There is generally  good  correlation between true DXA measurement at hip and spine, and heel QUS measurement.
And QUS lacks the cumulative radiation risks of DXA.
That’s why QUS bone density  is increasingly recommended from childhood, for monitoring and thus simple prevention of frailty   – thus avoiding  the mushrooming  fracture and frailty risk in later life

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22878531 Osteoporos Int. 2012 Aug  Quantitative ultrasound and fracture risk prediction in non-osteoporotic men and women as defined by WHO criteria.Chan ea  Garvan Institute of Medical Research,Sydney,  Australia.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22037972 Osteoporos Int. 2012 Jan:143-53.Quantitative ultrasound of  heel and fracture risk. Moayyeri ea .University Cambridge  UK. Metanalysis: 21 studies with 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included  with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fracture:  1 SD decrease in BMD associated with almost doubling of  hip fracture risk.  (RR by BUA  1.69, SOS was 1.96). There was marked heterogeneity among studies on hip and any clinical fractures but no evidence of publication bias amongst them. Different validated devices predicted fracture risks with similar performance; with  similar performance in men and women. This study confirms that heel QUS, using validated devices, predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women.

Oct 30, 2010.


The just-published Champ study of osteoporosis in men over 70yrs in Australia shows the high risk for older men as well: 25% had vertebral fractures, but only 77% of the men with fractures had even osteopenia let alone osteoporosis on DXA screening. and this does not factor in the overreading by DXA at the spine and hip owing to the high prevalence of both calcinosis and vertebral collapse. And abysmally few of the men were taking realistic preventatives.

The study bears out:

that frailty,  usually from aging  – is the chief risk factor for non-violent fractures;

and  the low sensitivity of especially  DXA screening, never mind the folly of waiting for fractures or dementia or worse before doing safe lowcost (QUS bone risk) screening as one incentive to starting multipreventative supplements.

As the GIOS Project in Spain yet again confirms, simple  diagnosis and safe  treatment of those at risk of non-violent fractures is scandalously neglected.

And it does not require costly risky high technology – xray screening  bisphosphonates or strontium ranelate..

Like doctors, men are far more resistant than even women to heeding warning to start screening and supplements early enough.

The  CHAMP  study again highlights the importance of asymptomatic middleaged men never mind women having periodic no-xray ultrasound quantitative bone strength scans  routinely as the gold standard so as to prompt them to take the appropriate blend of the fewscore supplements effective against both frailty fractures as well as the associated lipid- diabetes- vascular -respiratory- dementia- cancer diseases.



update 20/12/12      Dr Giske Ursin of the Norwegian Cancer Registry has just published   thoughts on collaboration – not anger for and against risky xray mammography – needed to move the field forward on avoiding breast cancer, to defend the integrity of women’s breasts. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23234258 

this column has previously reviewed mammography screening  http://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2011/11/06/negligent-promotion-of-screening-xray-mammography-as-saving-lives/

and   http://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2011/10/16/the-evidence-against-xray-screening-mammography-grows-after-20-years/

A new paper – from the USA National Cancer Institute no less- writes about the fraud of alarmist marketing of cancer screening/treatment. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1209407

Another new paper, from Wisconsin University,   What Is the Optimal Threshold at Which to Recommend Breast Biopsy? notes that with an annual incidence of breast biopsy  of 0.626% there (ie about 6 per 1000 women of the ~18 000 screened over 5 years ),  1 in 4 biopsied  ie about 0.15% of those screened will be proven to have some degree of (pre)cancer..  They confirm the 2% risk threshold at which radiologists recommend biopsy.   http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3492229/

Of well women, perhaps <1 in 20 justify screening breast imaging except in those women with relevant anxieties ie the worried well.

But screening xray mammography often uncovers clinically silent ie preclinical breast cancer which otherwise might never cause problems in lifetime; and such irradiation and crushing may activate and  spread dormant precancer cells.
Just as cardiograms are electrical-, echo- or angio- images of the heart, mammograms MGMs are widely different technology images of the breasts.

But unlike heart disease, no living imaging technique diagnoses with certainty cancer that is not already clinically pretty obvious.

The breast carcinogenic radiation risks from X-rays have been known for a century and yet it’s heavy usage is often inappropriate, profit-driven.

When patient’s history and  physical  exam suffice to exclude significant risk of breast cancer with practical certainty, it is unnecessary to crush, irradiate, needle or cut. Low risk women expose themselves to a greater risk with lower-dose  screening X-ray MGMs and more invasive costly tests. For the common “silent” cancers (e.g. prostate/breast), statistics do not support that routine invasive screening of the apparently healthy saves lives.

As with all technology, many ‘grams – imaging methods – have evolved for the breasts. Like the infants they are built to nourish, breasts are extremely sensitive to irradiation. The lower the X-ray dose, the worse the subtle genetic damage that may occur – even decades later. We know this from follow-up consultations with women with initially healthy breasts >15 years earlier who had repeated xray mammograms, versus their sisters who had xray mammograms only when suspicions arose; and from controlled laboratory experiments on rodents and human breast cells.

Objective statistical analyses since the Canadian breast X-ray screening trial more than 20 years ago, show no benefit, but show instead an increasing risk of more breast cancer, more breast surgery and more premature deaths in well women repeatedly xrayed. .

ALTERNATIVE BREAST SCANS available include no-touch photographic thermo-mammography, gentle ultrasound;

and gentle mechanical tactile imaging (MTI), which may be  better than xray or ultrasound MGM show early warning signs such as thickening of tissue and lumps. These signs may be reversed with diet, supplements and lifestyle changes.

From international studies and  local experience, MTI (e.g. Sure Touch Mammography) has become the best at outpatients, to document the physical exam findings with three-dimensional characteristics mapped.. With this simple process, perhaps  < 1 in 30 healthy women may need referral for ultrasound, and perhaps < 1 in 100 cases justify biopsy, and as the Wisconsin study shows, <1 in 1000 found to have significant breast cancer. It has been validated as at least as effective as (if not better than) other breast imaging  in studies in USA, England, China and India.
MTI is recommended by CANSA, which says that from 2005 data    about 1:29 women will be diagnosed in their lifetime with breast cancer. .

Studies confirm the obvious, that the more experts with vested interests (in XRMGM and breast cancer management) who draw up Guidelines, the more likely that Panel is to encourage mass XRMGM and intervention. So instead of perhaps 1 in 30 woman justifying breast imaging, the Breast Disease Industry – including the USA Breast Cancer Association the Industry funds – wants every woman X-ray screened regularly ideally from age 40years for the rest of their lives. But despite rage from the $8billion a year USA breast screening industry, Authorities have steadily cut back the age of starting mass screening XRMGM from age 40 to 50 years and to every 2nd or 3rd years.

No preclinical imaging diagnoses cancer. The only sure diagnosis is lump excision histology – if not multiple biopsies with their risk of needle spread.

Talk about unsubtle seduction. This year – despite massive financial (including stock-market) and marketing pressure- even mammography wine and food parties at USA radiology centers  to persuade women to submit   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126325763413725559.html  -two books  never mind a flood of scientific journal papers have just  been published questioning routine xray mammography of the well:

Dr Peter Gotzsche and the Danish Cochrane epidemiology team have published the evidence from all over the world – from at least 14 countries- against universal XRMGM for all, against the myth of the benefits and safety of regular xray mammography.. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2120750/The-expert-branded-woman-hater-saying-breast-cancer-screening-ruins-lives.html   and 

The Big Squeeze: A Social and Political History of the Controversial (XRAY) Mammogram (Culture and Politics of Health Care Work) by radiologist Dr Handel Reynolds 2012 http://handelreynoldsmd.com/the_big_squeeze_history_mammography.html  



update 24 May 2011

In Claremont  and Fish Hoek , Cape Town

A Specialist Internist Clinic offers consultations by appointment especially for managing (and ideally preventing)  the major chronic degenerative diseases of aging  and  maintaining physical, mental (and why not sexual?) vigour to a ripe and healthy old age.

The clinic (a specialist physician and a nutritionalist)  offers all-system evaluation and if available, natural  (as well as essential prescription orthrodox) prevention/treatment including metabolic – weight-endocrine-diabetes; heart-lung -kidney; hypertension; neurological-pain; joint & muscle; abdominal, immune system ie infection and cancer and auto-immune  support;  genito-urinary & sexual problems;

and appropriate screening – ECG, non-xray ( no-touch thermography- eg thermomammogram;   SureTouch tactile) mammograms, non-xray (ie  ultrasound) BMD ie  bone fracture risk measurement, body composition, and appropriate hormone profiling/replacement.

Phone during office hours for appointment: for Claremont or Fish Hoek ph 021-6717415  or 6831465 (or 083-6299160) – at Grove Medical Bldg 1st floor no 15 (opp ABSA Bank Parkade c/o Grove Ave Pearce Rd)  , or neil.burman@gmail.com ; or at Fish Hoek  enquire of Coral : 782-2024 or kilbaigie@mweb.co.za   or consultation by telephone/Skype or email .

HOURS: by appt: Claremont:  9am-5pm weekdays, 9am-1pm Saturdays.

                                  Fish Hoek: “Hove To” Specialist Rooms c/o 3rd Ave/Kommetjie Rd – on the 2nd Tuesday after the 2nd Friday each month – 9am -1pm if there are enough bookings to justify a clinic there.

Urgent cases will be dealt with if practical.    But acute emergencies and trauma, bleeding cases  cannot be dealt- these must go to the Emergency Unit at Claremont Clinic 500m away. .

Billing according to means ie specialist professional rates:  eg as a preferred provider for Discovery Health- rate currently R626.70 per  consultation procedure  019; for needy patients, what the medical scheme pays eg R360. Detailed medical report and advice protocol provided at R300. Even Hospital Plans have to pay for outpatient consultation for scores of PMBs ie Prescribed Medical benefit conditions like Menopause.

 Needy patients desiring brief consultation can be seen by arrangement at GP rate.    Bone density scan  (covered by some medical schemes)  procedure 3612  – R250.  Non-xray mammograms are not yet covered by medical schemes codes: R300 for SureTouch, R600 for thermomammogram.


This  blog is irregularly updated   with the latest detailed pharmacological information on the ingredients of anti-aging preparations, the powder blend compositions, and mail-order/wholesale prices.

These are all detailed  on the page Product Details and Pricelists. but of course all the ingredients, as food supplements, can be ordered individually to US  or UK  or Japanese pharmacopoea standard anywhere from any reliable importer or manufacturer.

The prices listed are not updated weekly, they are a guide; and  dependent from day to day on imported costs which are mostly rising constantly .

For information email sales@healthspanlife.com (or contact 027836299160).

The public, as well as interested distributors/retailers, are invited to contact Healthspan Life!.


   a Specialist Internist Physician [MB,ChB(UCT 1966), MRCP (UK 1974),   (fellow of the     Kronos Longevity Research Institute, Phoenix, Arizona 2004)  has opened a   CHRONIC DISEASE CLINIC    

 at Grove Medical Bldg, Grove Ave Claremont Cape Town  bewteen

ABSA Bank Parkade &  Warwick Sq opp. Cavendish Sq (also at Fish Hoek).

MISSION: To address the underlying causes of disease not just the symptoms,  to delay by decades all-cause disability and deaths.    Integrating natural and modern medicine.

managing and if possible delaying all common concurrent diseases of aging

including especially fatigue, frailty, diabetes;

 hypertension, cardiovascular, neurological, respiratory,

 abdominal, pain, headache, neurological -memory, renal, genitourinary,

endocrine , musculoskeletal, sexual and  immune diseases . 

Appropriate physiological Menopause and Aging Male HRT .

No-xray osteoporosis/BMD measurement by quantitative ultrasound.

Distance consulting.

phone/fax  +27216717415  for appointment, or respond below. .





SWINE FLU UPDATE; Tamiflu protection?- evidence please? A windfall for USA?















SEX: persistent female genital arousal syndrome.



19 Sept 2014   .    is there anything to update? CONCLUSION: not really. Conservatism urges avoidance of screening anyway in those with short lifespan from other major disease, or age eg above 75years- UNLESS there is good evidence of meaningful life extension. As we concluded in 2011, is such screening worth perhaps  1 month life extension in old age?

So far there is still no good evidence to support regular mass population screening in apparently well adults without risks for any degenerative disease  EXCEPT for hypertension;  glaucoma;   malignant melanoma; and  women at risk of cervix cancer ie sexually active at a younger age.

Health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a hybrid screening strategy for colorectal cancerDinh T,  Levin TR  ea 1Archimedes Inc, San Francisco  present a model rationale for FOBT screening from age 50yrs, with a single elective colonoscopy at 66yrs if FOBT remains negative – at a cost of US$10000 per putative QALY gained. .   Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend screening schedules for each single type of test except for concurrent sigmoidoscopy and fecal occult blood test (FOBT). We investigated the cost-effectiveness of a hybrid screening strategy that was based on a fecal immunological test (FIT) and colonoscopy.   METHODS:  We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis by using the Archimedes Model to evaluate the effects of different CRC screening strategies on health outcomes and costs related to CRC in a population that represents members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California. The Archimedes Model is a large-scale simulation of human physiology, diseases, interventions, and health care systems. The CRC submodel in the Archimedes Model was derived from public databases, published epidemiologic studies, and clinical trials.  RESULTS:   A hybrid screening strategy led to substantial reductions in CRC incidence and mortality, gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and reductions in costs, comparable with those of the best single-test strategies. Screening by annual FIT of patients 50-65 years old and then a single colonoscopy when they were 66 years old (FIT/COLOx1) reduced CRC incidence by 72% and gained 110 QALYs for every 1000 people during a period of 30 years, compared with no screening. Compared with annual FIT, FIT/COLOx1 gained 1400 QALYs/100,000 persons at an incremental cost of $9700/QALY gained and required 55% fewer FITs. Compared with FIT/COLOx1, colonoscopy at 10-year intervals gained 500 QALYs/100,000 at an incremental cost of $35,100/QALY gained but required 37% more colonoscopies. Over the ranges of parameters examined, the cost-effectiveness of hybrid screening strategies was slightly more sensitive to the adherence rate with colonoscopy than the adherence rate with yearly FIT.    .  CONCLUSIONS:  In our simulation model, a strategy of annual or biennial FIT, beginning when patients are 50 years old, with a single colonoscopy when they are 66 years old, delivers clinical and economic outcomes similar to those of CRC screening by single-modality strategies, with a favorable impact on resources demand.  Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2013 Sep;:1158-66.

16 Sept 2014: PREVENT INSTEAD OF SCREEN: Dr  Ng  from DANA FABER CANCER INST, BOSTON MASS asks in .  Vitamin D for Prevention and Treatment of Colorectal Cancer: What is the Evidence?   Vitamin D insufficiency is highly prevalent in the U.S, particularly among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients- – studies suggest that higher vitamin D levels are associated with lower risk of incident CRC as well as improved survival in patients with established CRC. There remains a great need to improve prognosis for patients with CRC, and investigating vitamin D as a potential therapeutic modality is an attractive option in regards to safety and cost, particularly in this era of expensive and often toxic anti-neoplastic agents.  Curr Colorectal Cancer Rep. 2014 Sep 1;10:339-345

But as we know well from many studies, conventional “high” doses of vitamins C (eg  hundreds of  mgs/d)  and D (a few hundred to a few thousand iu/d)  have only modest benefit for prevention and against existing disease-  it requires about 10-15fold higher vit D3 ie 80-100iu/kg/day, and 100 to 500 more vit C ie a few to a few score gms vit C a day to have major impact. These must not be in isolation, as they may be limited by conditioned deficiency of other micronutrients especially vits K2. . We know well from eg the ATBC trial of vits A and E that too much and too late may be harmful, especially if these are not in natural balanced forms of all the vits A and E groups.

14 Sept 2014   A colleague is surprised that  at 72yrs I have never had a screening scope.

so I recheck the evidence after 3 years, since my 2011 review. Even The USA National Cancer Institute review of colon cancer screening  (updated to 24 July 2014) agrees  that Based on solid evidence, there is little evidence that screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) reduces all-cause mortality, possibly because of an observed increase in other causes of death, although in some studies it may reduce CRC mortality;   and there is always serious risk of harms. Overall, the NCI concludes that  On initial (prevalence) examinations, from 1% to 5% of unselected persons screened  with stool gFOBT guaiac faecal occult blood test (collected over 3 days, repeated up to yearly )   have positive test results ie 30 per 1000 recalled; of whom on imaging  2% to 10% have cancer and approximately 20% to 30% have adenomas,[26,27] depending on how the test is done.That translates to colon cancer detected in  about 3% of 6%  = 0.18% of the target population screened  – of whom 74% occur between 55 and 84 yrs. .

As a recent Spanish team review last year says, No strategy, whether alone or combined, has proven definitively more effective than the rest:   Economic evaluation of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening   Cruzado J1Carballo F. ea  1Colorectal Cancer Prevention Program for  Instituto Murciano de Investigación Biosanitaria,  Murcia, Spain Because of its incidence and mortality colorectal cancer represents a serious public health issue in industrial countries. In order to reduce its social impact a number of screening strategies have been implemented, which allow an early diagnosis and treatment. These basically include faecal tests and (then) studies that directly explore the colon and rectum. No strategy, whether alone or combined, has proven definitively more effective than the rest, but any such strategy is better than no screening at all. Selecting the most efficient strategy for inclusion in a population-wide program is an uncertain choice. Here we review the evidence available on the various economic evaluations, and conclude that no single method has been clearly identified as most cost-effective; further research in this setting is needed.. Best Pract Res Clin Gastroenterol. 2013 ;27:867-80.  

BUT:  Is aging per se a real risk factor for suffering colon cancer? No good evidence yet.  all cancers do increase with aging. But there is still no hard evidence of meaningful life extension from colon, breast or prostate  screening for silent risks in those without other cancer risk factors.

The NCI found four completed  trials of FOBT faecal occult blood testing since 2004 – in Minneapolis(46500), Denmark (31000), Sweden(68000) and UK(151000) – ie 300 000 older lowrisk adults- these   find no benefit in terms of increased length of life. The longest, –  30 year followup in Minneapolis – looks at the longterm mortality benefit of CRC screening- and as with breast and prostate screening for silent cancer in those without significant risk factors.   So organized mass population screening eg every 1  or 10 years from age 50 years does not save lives in the elderly at low risk ie no colon symptoms- at an enormous cost in the scores  of well people  – about 1.2 per 1000- needed to screen, with about 3% of these found positive needing imaging- at major risk of unforseen problems-  to find one cancer, shorten the lead time, save a life from silent cancer. We all die from something eventually. 99.82% of the population screened did not develop colon cancer.

In firstworld people the risk of colon cancer is generally below that of breast and prostate cancer respectively: Wiki sums it up-                                                                    Based on rates from 2007-2009, 5% of US men and women born today will be diagnosed with colorectal cancer during their lifetime.[95] The median age at diagnosis for cancer of the colon and rectum in the US was 69 years of age. Approximately 0.1% were diagnosed under age 20; 1.1% between 20 – 34; 4.0% between 35 – 44; 13.4% between 45 – 54; 20.4% between 55 a-64; 24.0% between 65 – 74;  25.0% between 75- 84; and 12.0% 85+ years. Rates are higher among males (54 per 100,000 c.f. 40 per 100,000 for females). about 20% of such cancer patients have a familial genetic risk.

so faecal screening would be the mass screening method of choice, with about 25% recall rate for costly colon imaging to find the 1.2  cases per 1000 in the target population. But that is supposed to uncover silent colon cancer 2 years earlier, allowing expected drastic reduction in the 75% mortality of clinically presenting colon cancer. So why do no trials of  colon cancer screening show reduction in all-cause mortality? Perhaps its because the lethal colon cancers occur  and present clinically younger in those with lethal genetic risks eg Lynch syndrome, or predisposing colon inflammation eg ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s; or those with multiple polyposis  who are more likely to bleed early.

But we know that real chronic colonic  disease is par excellence a western Saccharine Disease ie of our urban fastfood high sugars,  low fibre diet, inadequate water intake,  and slothful low sunshine ie couch potato  low vitamin D  constipated  lifestyle; with often smoking and alcoholism. . Naturally the Wiki review, written to favour regular screening to find profitable more  silent cancers (like breast and prostate screening) , does not mention this. .

Shaukat A1, Church TR ea  (in N Engl J Med. 2013;369:1106-14  Long-term mortality after screening for colorectal cancer    Minneapolis VA Health Care System USA).  In randomized trials, fecal occult-blood testing FOBT  reduces mortality from colorectal cancer. However, duration of the benefit is unknown, as are the effects specific to age.  METHODS:  In the Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study, 46,551 participants, 50 to 80 years of age, were randomly assigned to usual care (control) or to annual or biennial screening with fecal occult-blood testing. Screening was performed from 1976 through 1982 and from 1986 through 1992. We used the National Death Index to obtain updated information on the vital status of participants and to determine causes of death through 2008.  RESULTS:  Through 30 years of follow-up, 33,020 participants (70.9%) died. A total of 732 deaths 2% were attributed to colorectal cancer: 200 of the 11,072 deaths (1.8%) in the annual-screening group, 237 of the 11,004 deaths (2.2%) in the biennial-screening group, and 295 of the 10,944 deaths (2.7%) in the control group. Screening reduced colorectal-cancer mortality (relative risk with annual screening, 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 0.82; relative risk with biennial screening, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.93) through 30 years of follow-up. No reduction was observed in all-cause mortality (relative risk with annual screening, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.01; relative risk with biennial screening, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.01). The reduction in colorectal-cancer mortality was larger for men than for women in the biennial-screening group (P=0.04 for interaction).     CONCLUSIONS: The effect of screening with fecal occult-blood testing on colorectal-cancer mortality persists after 30 years but does not influence all-cause mortality. The sustained reduction in colorectal-cancer mortality supports the effect of polypectomy.

For mass Sigmoidoscopy screening,   Five sigmoidoscopy screening RCTs have reported incidence and mortality results.- Norway 2 trials;  and  United Kingdom; Italy; and the U.SA, in 166,000 participants in the screened groups and 250,000 controls. Follow-up ranged from only 6 to 13 years.   There was an overall 28% relative reduction in CRC mortality (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65–0.80), an 18% relative reduction in CRC incidence (RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73–0.91), and a 33% relative reduction in the incidence of left-sided CRC (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.59–0.76). There was no effect on all-cause mortality.

For mass colonoscopy screening, no trials have been completed to give any evidence of longterm mortality benefit.

One group proposes a screening program based on  periodic stool FIT faecal immunological test , with a single colonoscopy at 66yrs.  Dinh , Levin ea Archimedes Inc, San Francisco,( Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2013 ;11:1158-66   Health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a hybrid screening strategy for colorectal cancer)  In our simulation model, a strategy of annual or biennial FIT, beginning when patients are 50 years old, with a single colonoscopy when they are 66 years old, delivers clinical and economic outcomes similar to those of CRC screening by single-modality strategies, with a favorable impact on resources demand.

UPDATE  20 Oct  2011 A chiropracter asks: what is the recommendation regarding screening colonoscopy, mammography, prostate for cancers? would MD’s and DO’s get one and if so in what circumstance?

My answer:

The only link between breast, prostate, bowel, ovary and womb cancers is that these organs (unlike cervix cancer) are genetically linked through common sex hormone influences; and (apart from the breasts) coincidentally abut ..

Prostate cancer associates with higher estrogen and DHT levels. As for usually estrogen-dependent breasts and  breast cancer screening in low-risk breasts discussed previously, the overwhelming evidence favours no screening at all without symptoms  or risk factors. Unlike for breast cancer,  treatment for prostate cancer (as for  colon cancer) seems to make no difference except when there is obstruction or bleeding. For asymptomatic PRCA the rule remains: watchful waiting. Like women and breast cancer, many men have undiagnosed ie asymptomatic prostate cancer at autopsy for other causes of death.

Colon cancer is different.   it is less common in women with estrogen replacement.

But unlike prostate and breast cancer where invasive screening of all lowrisk patients likely causes more harm  (including despondency) than good,  it is hard to find good colon cancer studies of asymptomatic lowrisk people that show no benefit of screening colon imaging. Studies of colon cancer imaging are inevitably by practitioners who have  a major commercial vested interest in such imaging.

But how many studies have been done comparing colon screening with no screening in patients who truly have none of the risk factors -  – heredity, meat diet, smoking, overweight, bleeding,  inflammatory bowel disease, polyps, diabetes?

Few articles are against such colon screening ie rationalize or philosophize against it .

A 2011 Medscape review from a New Jersey University team concludes cautiously: “In particular, education and intervention efforts for colon imaging should be focused on patients that have risk factors eg diabetes, obesity, or are former/current smokers. This population represents a sub-group of patients who are having CRC screening at a rate lower than the average-risk population. Significant reductions in CRC incidence and mortality might be possible by providing targeted screening interventions to increased-risk individuals and by educating physicians on the importance of recommending screening to these patients even in the face of multiple competing demands”. ie it  encourages  colon screening in  increased risk individuals. 

Search of Pubmed for “incidental colon cancer at autopsy” reveals only three  studies, >20 years ago,  two in the orient.

Ueyama ea, Kyushu University, Japan in Am J Gastroenterol.1991    Colorectal carcinomas incidentally detected in 3,638 autopsied cases and inpatients  during the past 20 yr.   17 colorectal carcinomas (0.47%) were incidentally detected among autopsied patients without clinically evident colorectal carcinoma, including 2,232 males and 1,406 females more than 40 yr old. Among the 15 male and two female index subjects, six (0.33%) were detected in the first and 11 (0.60%) in the second decade. During their survival periods, fecal occult blood studies were performed in 14 cases and positive in 12 (86%); however, two of them had gastric ulcers which were responsible for the occult blood. During the recent 11 yr, six cases (0.48%) of colorectal carcinoma (four of them males; two, females) also were detected among 1,249 inpatients who were examined by barium enema and/or colonoscopy, including 816 males and 433 females, 40 yr old, or more, in the Department of Radiology. Fecal occult blood was detected in four cases (67%) before colonic investigation. Compared with 708 surgically resected carcinomas, the incidental lesions from both sources were smaller, consisted of higher percentages of Dukes’ A type, and arose predominantly from the sigmoid colon and, rarely, from the rectum. These results indicate that the prevalence of colorectal carcinoma and its predominance in the sigmoid colon have not only apparently but actually increased in Japan, apart from improved diagnostic capabilities, and that false-negative rates with occult blood tests were surprisingly low in these autopsied cases and inpatients.

 Lee YS in Cancer 1988 studied Incidental carcinoma of the colorectum at autopsy in Singapore. . . Ten incidental invasive carcinomas (two early carcinomas involving the submucosa, and eight advanced carcinomas involving the muscularis propria or beyond) of the large intestine were discovered in a series of 1014 consecutive autopsies. All occurred in Chinese aged 60 years and older, constituting a prevalence rate of about 3% in this age group. If unsuspected colorectal carcinomas in Chinese Singapore residents aged 60 years and older exist in those who died in 1984 to the same extent as that noted in this autopsy study, it was estimated that 146 additional cases would have been added to the Cancer Registry in that year. This would constitute 47.9% of the total number of colorectal cancers diagnosed in this age group in 1984. This potential contribution has to be taken into consideration in epidemiologic studies on the incidence and future trends of colorectal cancers in Singapore. Incidental carcinomas were found predominantly in the ascending colon. With more frequent use of colonoscopy, the incidence of right-sided cancers of the large bowel may be expected to increase. The current underdiagnosis of ascending colon carcinomas has to be taken into consideration when any future increase in right-sided cancers of the large bowel is observed. 

Suen ea Cancer. 1974 studied Cancer and old age – autopsy study of 3,535 patients over 65 years old, in New York from 1960 to 1970 ie a decade earlier than the above oriental studies; they showed that men had cancer nearly twice as frequently as women (40% vs. 24%); and more incidental ie less aggressive neoplasms as age advanced. The most frequent cancers were those of the prostate (12% of men), gyne (7.5% of women- breast 3%) , kidney 3.5%, and colon 5.6%.. 70% of the cancers were already diagnosed in life ie 30% were incidental findings. Cancer tended to metastasize less frequently in the elderly.  The most common sites of latent asymptomatic cancer reported by Berg et al The prevalence of latent cancers in cancer patients. Arch. Pathol 1971. in their study of 5636 cancer patients with ages ranging from the teens to over 80,were prostate, thyroid, colon, and kidney. They further emphasized that cancer of the colon and kidney were the ones most easily missed clinically. In our study, the most frequent sites of incidental cancer, among the common cancers, were prostate (incidental 67%), kidney (51%), colon (31.5%), and breast 16.6%.

And  researchers from the Universities of California, North Carolina and Harvard –  Walter ea- show in 2005  Screening for colorectal, breast, and cervical cancer in the elderly: Am J Medicine  that “characteristics of individual patients that go beyond age should be the driving factors in screening decisions… in one study -Selby ea A case-control study of screening sigmoidoscopy and mortality from colorectal cancer . N Engl J Med . 1992; .”For colorectal cancer screening, fecal occult blood testing has the strongest evidence of benefit in elderly patients, while flexible sigmoidoscopy reduces mortality from colorectal cancer by 59% .Flexible sigmoidoscopy has fewer complications than colonoscopy, with perforations occurring in less than 0.1 of 1000 examinations; .” But they did not report data on benefit of colorectal screening of lowrisk adults in terms of actual overall life extension ie reduction in all-cause mortality- which benefit has not been shown in rigorous analysis of xray screening mammography or screening blood and digital exams of lowrisk men for prostate cancer. .

Lack of significant life extension by breast and colon screening was shown by Rich and Black from Vermont USA in Clin Pract. 2000 When should we stop screening? Given a starting age of 50 years, screening throughout life has a maximum potential life expectancy benefit of 43 days for breast cancer and 28 days for colon cancer.

These 1 month extensions in life expectancy do not justify screening the entire population of older persons- surely only those of us with significant risk factors need be screened.

CONCLUSION: from the above references from autopsy series, the prevalence  of   incidental ie asymptomatic colon cancer at routine autopsy  in older deaths varies between about 0.5% and 3% in oriental and New York patients. So since I dont have any symptoms or risk factors listed, after 50 years in medicine I havent had colon or prostate imaging for a potential 4 week gain in life expectancy. I will do so promptly if I get colon symptoms.

I tell my older lowrisk patients the dubious potential benefit of cancer screening, and the serious risks, from overdiagnosis- polyps and lowgrade cancers that might never present in lifetime, to perforation ; while explaining to them that well-patient  breast, prostate  and colon cancer screening is hugely profitable universal policy.

For non-emergency consultations and especially costly and invasive procedures, doctors and patients need reminding that it’s the patient’s choice, not the doctors’..

This brings us to one of the ethical dilemmas of medicine: when our experience, and careful sifting of the hard evidence, conflicts with conventional wisdom- which is often based on belief and vested interests- evidence slanted hy bias- surely we practitioners have both a right to express our evidence-based personal conviction, and a duty to do so. Thus we surely have a duty  to give the patient the hard evidence both for and against- be it about the power of prayer and belief, about contraception and abortion, for and against statins for mild-moderate lipidemia, or in the low-risk patient, screening mammography, prostate or colon screening.





19 Sept 2014 update:     ABSTRACT:  readers  of this column recently commend its statin commentary, last updated in June, about the controversy of statins  in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease CVD. This update now  reviews crucial major recent evidence that the marketing hype  of “statin deficiency” in the average aging population is a  dangerous fabrication (eg Vytorin) of the $billion Disease and Drug corporate industry  – especially when statins inhibit omega3  and CoQ10 which like other human micronutrient protectors- magnesium, iodine, arginine, carnitine, ribose, vitamins , B, D3, C & K2,   and human  sex hormones – are increasingly deficient  or imbalanced in an aging western population and urban convenience food  diet.

     The prizewinning immunologist   Dr Duncan Adams from Univ Otago   in the elite QJM 2011 pithily demolishes The Great Cholesterol ie Statin Myth, commends the statin trials metanalysis of  Ray ea from Cambridge 2010 that showed no benefits of statins in mild to moderate cholesterolemia. .     More evidence says  dont use  natural supplements along  with statins to reduce statin risks and enhance statin benefits, but better to avoid the risks  from statins, smoking and excessive alcohol eg ROS reactive oxygen species , in an aging slothful  fattening population:  with improved exercise, more water, a Banting-type low-carbs high-fat and -greens – fermented (ie high in vit K2)  diet, a multivite-multimineral plus vigorous well-tolerated supplements of CoQ10,vits D3 and C, fish oil,  magnesium, sulphur, coconut oil, and appropriate metformin and human sex hormone replacement.
     Rather than  Big Pharma’s promotion of  Statinopause, statin deficiency ,  we need to address the multiple age-and diet-related deficiencies (and some excesses)  that lead to the preventible degenerative diseases of aging- and which are worsened by the Food Factory chain  promotion that has dictated the (Gary Taubes’  Diet Delusion  and Nina Teicholtz’ The Big Fat Surprise) expose  of processed grain-fed nutrient-depleted (but fructose-loaded) foods, high carbs low animal fat/cholesterol diet for forty years. This has   compounded the deficiency of -fat-soluble micronutrients   like vitamins D3, CoQ10, A,  E & K2,  lecithin and marine omga3 – EPA and DHA; and naturally compounded pollution  by environmental-  radioactivity, electromagnetic and radiofields-,   and air, foodchain and drug pollution the past 50 years years by plastics, CO2 and volatile emissions, mercury, aluminium, fluoride, lead, bromide;   micromineral depleted salt, fatally potent endocrine disruptors, antibiotics, xenohormones, pesticides  and numerous other synthetic drugs launched on the public until they are recognized to kill humans.        

  Margaret McCartney  general practitioner, Glasgow writes : We lack the tools to help patients decide about statins BMJ 2014; 349 doi:     The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recently approved atorvastatin for people in England and Wales who have a 10% risk of a cardiovascular event within 10 years; it had previously been a 20% risk.1 GPs are advised to treat such people—which includes everyone older than 85—and to continually review everyone else in case they pass the 10% threshold.

          This decision on funding statins is based primarily on cost effectiveness to the NHS.2 The press release from NICE mentioned the potential benefit to the population (namely, it “could help prevent up to 28 000 heart attacks and 16 000 strokes each year”3) but not the absolute benefit to the individual.

But life is more complicated than that: people make choices for multiple reasons. Many patients stop taking statins after starting them4; others, faced with the choice of taking a drug with a small chance of benefit, would rather not do so; and some people will want to take them no matter how low their risk may already be.

We lack the tools to accurately predict individual risk at such low thresholds—leading to overtreatment and, to a lesser extent, non-identification of risk.5 The general practice cake is finite; cutting a bigger slice for healthy people at lower risk means a smaller slice for people who have symptoms and are unwell. The chance of a longer life is offered to people who are willing to take tablets consistently, but we know that these compliant patients are already more likely to live longer, even when taking a placebo.6 7 This policy, which benefits people who are already the healthiest, has the potential to widen health inequalities.

       Who is keeping an overview of where NICE is taking us? The conflicts of interest among the members on its drafting panels are buried in minutes rather than in the guidance itself, and we still lack public access to most of the trial data that NICE uses.8 But we are told to press ahead regardless when, most bewildering of all, we don’t have a decent shared decision aid—designed and tested for the five million more people advised to take statins—about the benefits and harms of statinisation and the management of cardiovascular risk.

      “Should I take statins?” is a question asked of GPs every day. We urgently need better tools to allow guidance to guide, rather than dictate new targets. Our lack of resources to deal with such a common question simply isn’t acceptable.

2013 Italian  Statin HMGA   study Pasin ea shows that statins- cholesterol-busters- do not help patients with sepsis.
A 2010   review Yue ea of all published studies in  3,022 postmenopausal women (mean age, >62.7 y), showed  that statin use doesnt prevent fractures or increases bone density.

why should synthetic designer metabolic poisons – statins-  be expected to help peripheral  conditions like fracture risk and menopause?  when statins promote diabetes – insulin resistance, and  block healthy  metabolism throughout the body, in brains, muscles, kidneys, skin- but especially  lowering liver manufacture of cholesterol that is one of our top lifegivers  for our needed reproductive and adrenal steroids- including our two prime anabolic steroids( vitamin D3 and androgen). And statins increase the risk of highly malignant Merkel Cell skin carcinoma by 25%, as well as dermatitis eg Ma .  ..

We have known for  ~forty  years that while anticholesterol drugs  are  valuable for  rare people with severe hypercholesterolemia HCH risk of  vascular disease, statins’  longterm adverse effects are numerous, and there has never been evidence to justify their routine mass  use  for mild to moderate HCH- ie CVS risk below ~15 to 20% in 10 years-   despite the Cholesterol-statin industry investing multimillions in their promotional trials and in their lobbyists.

The Sheffield Cholesterol  and Multiple Risk Table by Jackson ea 25 years ago in the Lancet  was impressive  as a guide to  life extension by taking a statin permanently. When used for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease CHD , treatment with an inhibitor of hydroxymethylglutaryl-coenzyme-A reductase HMGA results in worthwhile benefit that clearly exceeds any risk in patients whose risk of coronary death is 1.5% or more per year ie >15% per 10 years. This evidence can be extrapolated logically to primary prevention of coronary disease provided that treatment is targeted at those with similar or higher risk. The table highlights the predominant effect of age on coronary risk; a person who is free of vascular disease and younger than 52 years is unlikely to have the specified degree of risk. Even in older people (60-70 years) several risk factors are generally required to attain this degree of risk. Some people are candidates for lipid- lowering drug treatment with serum cholesterol as low as 5.5 mmol/L, whereas others with cholesterol as high as 9.0 mmol/L are not. Although cholesterol lowering is a powerful method for preventing coronary events in people at high risk, cholesterol measurement by itself is not a good way to identify those with high risk. At that stage I had already been advised for 20 years , and declined on the evidence,  to take an anticholesterol drug , since in my early 50s despite my cholesterol of 6-7, my normal weight, HDLC, Hcy, Lpa,  bloodpressure, blood glucose, lifestyle and diet  put me at low risk
.Now the updated Sheffield 2011 Table  is  by  Jackson et al  in the prestigious QJM. At my age and low risk factors (no FH of CHD despite familial risks  (diabetes, atrial fib and mild lipidemia), my  Sheffield score of about 10 barely  puts me into the statin benefit range of 5 months gained. My coronaries and carotids are clear of plaque at last imaging, on all the natural supplements mentioned in this review, but not statin or any other designer hypolipidemic drug. If my patients have already been started elsewhere on a statin, I suggest they try just 5mg/day to minimize risks. . .
ADVERSE EFFECTS:  by design, they are antimetabolic;  oxidant ie increase ROS reactive oxidant species;  reduce CoQ10 by 39%.  Although these adverse effects are dose dependent and may be rare, they are cumulatively serious against muscle, liver, kidneys, memory, mood,  pancreas,  skin, sexual function; they cause diabetes, neuropathy and perhaps worsen cancer.  Thus they are like cancer chemotherapy, only for severely ill patients ie those with severe familial hypercholesterolemia..
     As  Beyond Health summarizes last year,      “Cholesterol does not cause heart disease. The French  Paradox- they have the highest average cholesterol in Europe, around 250mg(6mmol/L), but the lowest incidence of heart disease and half the heart attacks we have here in the U.S. In Crete, the home of the healthy Mediterranean diet, a 10-year study failed to find a single heart attack despite average cholesterol levels well over 200 (5 mmol). There are as many heart attacks in people with cholesterol levels over 300 (7.5mmol) as those whose levels are under 200 . Half of all heart attacks occur in people with normal cholesterol levels.   Cognitive problems affect about 15 percent of statin users, including episodes of temporary amnesia called transient global amnesia (TGA). Statins have an adverse effect on tau, a protein made by brain cells that helps maintain their structure. Abnormal tau proteins are linked with neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s and ALS.  Statins  cause progressive cognitive decline, ranging from mild to severe, and anxiety, depression, inability to deal with stress, and violent behavior. Statin-takers are more likely to develop peripheral neuropathy, and to experience tremors and vertigo.  Other health issues linked with statins include cancer, suppressed immunity, cataracts and optic nerve problems, liver damage, impotence and loss of libido, hypersensitivity reactions that can lead to the autoimmune disease lupus, birth defects if taken by pregnant women, skin rashes and dryness, hair loss, gastrointestinal problems, insomnia, and pancreatitis. “
Wiki says In FH, Initial studies showed increased activity of HMGA but more showed that this did not explain the very abnormal cholesterol levels in FH patients. The binding of LDL to its receptor, and effects of impaired binding on metabolism  proved to be the underlying mechanism for FH.  Heterozygous FH is a common genetic disorder inherited   in 1:500 people in many “European”   populations – the Afrikaner, French Canadians, Lebanese Christians, and Finns have high rates of specific mutations that make FH particularly common in these groups. Homozygous FH is much rarer, occurring in 1 in a million births. Heterozygous FH is normally treated with lipid lowering agentsstatins, bile acid sequestrants.. . Homozygous FH often does not respond to medical therapy and may requires radical  other treatments.
       But search of Pubmed and Google  for STATIN mortality reduction IN FAMILIAL HYPERCHOLESTEROLEMIA gives few reports showing  that statins meaningfully reduce mortality  and add  QALYs quality life years.
                        A current comprehensive  Medscape review August 2014 Familial Hypercholesterolemia Medication  does not specify any  % reduction in mortality on statins or any other drugs, despite lowering LDLc levels 50-60%.
and  Familial Hypercholesterolemia.  Youngblom E, Knowles JW. Editors.  GeneReviews® Univ. Washington 2014 Jan  says Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is characterized by severely elevated LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) levels that cause atherosclerotic plaque deposition in arteries and a markedly increased risk of coronary artery disease at an early age. In FH, the more common CVD is coronary heart disease (CHD), which may manifest as angina and myocardial infarction; stroke occurs more rarely. Heterozygous FH is relatively common (prevalence 1:200-500). Persons with untreated FH are at an approximately 20-fold increased risk for CHD. Untreated men are at a 50% risk for a fatal or non-fatal coronary event by age 50 years; untreated women are at a 30% risk by age 60 years. In contrast, homozygous FH (HoFH)  is much rarer (prevalence 1:160,000 to 1:1,000,000). Most individuals with HoFH experience severe CHD by their mid-20s. The rate of either death or coronary bypass surgery by the teenage years is high.
Indeed,  Fred Raal, Dave Marais ea from their clinics’  long term results at   Wits and UCT showed Reduction in Mortality in Subjects With Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia Associated With Advances in Lipid-Lowering Therapy- - Circulation 2011 but the ~60% reduction in mortality in the statin era in this rare group (187 such subjects, mostly Afrikaners, very few smokers) was even so statistically barely significant. When the patients lost to follow-up in the statin-naive group were included in the analysis and censored on the date that statin therapy became available, the hazard ratio for the end point of death remained barely significant at 0.38 (95% CI 0.15–0.94; P 0.04), and the hazard ratio for the end point of MACE was not significant 0.54 (95% CI 0.25–1.18; P=0.12)
However, a  new JAMA study   from the Netherlands paints a gloomy picture- following almost 277  kids from age ~14 years for  Ten-Year Follow-up After Initiation of Statin Therapy in Children With Familial Hypercholesterolemia, after 10 years twice as many of those on statins were smoking  compared to their “normal” sibs, but worse, the FH sibs on statins, despite 20% lower cholesterol,  had the same increase in carotid artery thickening as their sibs without FH.
Nordestgaard, Tybjærg-Hansen ea for the European Atherosclerosis Society Eur Heart J. 2013 say . Familial hypercholesterolaemia is underdiagnosed and undertreated in the general population:  to prevent coronary heart disease: consensus. .  Of the theoretical estimated prevalence of 1/500 for heterozygous FH, <1% are diagnosed in most countries. Recently, direct screening in a Northern European general population diagnosed approximately 1/200 with heterozygous FH. All reported studies document failure to achieve recommended LDL cholesterol targets in a large proportion of individuals with FH, and up to 13-fold increased risk of CHD. Based on prevalences between 1/500 and 1/200, between 14 and 34 million individuals worldwide have FH. We recommend that children, adults, and families should be screened for FH if a person or family member presents with FH, a plasma cholesterol level in an adult ≥8 mmol/L(≥310 mg/dL) or a child ≥6 mmol/L(≥230 mg/dL), premature CHD, tendon xanthomas, or sudden premature cardiac death. In FH, LDLC targets are <3.5 mmol/L(<135 mg/dL) for children, <2.5 mmol/L(<100 mg/dL) for adults, and <1.8 mmol/L(<70 mg/dL) for adults with known CHD or diabetes. In addition to lifestyle and dietary counseling, treatment priorities are (i) in children, statins, ezetimibe, and bile acid binding resins, and (ii) in adults, maximal potent statin dose, ezetimibe, and bile acid binding resins. Lipoprotein apheresis can be offered in homozygotes and in treatment-resistant heterozygotes with CHD.                                                                                                                                                            
But ezetimibe as an addon to statin eg in  Vytorin has been thoroughly discredited.  As Forbes.com said last year,   Pharma & Healthcare 2013   The Fate Of New Cholesterol Drugs Depends On IMPROVE-IT   “.But  Improve-It was not completed as planned in 2013. The new American  guidelines delivered a strong statement questioning the increasingly controversial theory that LDL lowering by itself is beneficial. “We found that non-statin therapies really didn’t provide an acceptable risk reduction benefit compared to their potential for adverse effects in the routine prevention of heart attack and stroke,”  IMPROVE-IT is the large, seemingly endless outcomes trial studying Vytorin, which has been a blockbuster drug for Merck. But the drug’s reputation, and its sales, have diminished in recent years because of a raging controversy over the lack of any evidence for clinical benefit. Vytorin lowers LDL cholesterol but no one knows if it improves outcomes. The IMPROVE-IT trial is supposed to resolve this controversy next year, but it will do so only as the patent on the drug nears expiration.     There’s a really good analogy to help understand the way IMPROVE-IT could impact the fate of the PCSK9 inhibitors. Just recently supporters of Amarin’s fish oil pill Vascepa thought the drug would coast to approval for a broad new indication. Their optimism was based largely on an agreement with the FDA that did not require a large outcome study before approval. But over the past few years several large outcome trials– not entirely dissimilar to IMPROVE-IT– failed to demonstrate clinical benefit for drugs that, like Vascepa, lowered triglycerides. The FDA tore up its earlier agreement with Amarin. In all likelihood Vascepa will not gain the new indication it seeks until an ongoing outcome study is successfully completed. The other Merck CVS drug trial of Tredaptive, a combination of simvastatin and niacin B3 vitamin, failed to show the new drug was better than a statin alone.

However, the Improve-It trial already failed when it showed no significant target benefits of more intensive LDLC lowering by it’s planned   2.5  years finish ie  2010 ; so numbers  (10 000 to 18000)  and time were increased to 18000 subjects, to finish now.. The latest is that results will be released  17 November…

what do other  STATIN  trials show? A Canticle for Statins?


 Ray et al from Cambridge Univ UK in Arch Intern Med. 2010:  a   meta-analysis of 11 randomized controlled trials (Jupiter, Allhat, Ascot, Mega, AfCaps, WOSCOPS, ASPEN, CARDS, Prevend-it, PROSPER, HYRIM) involving 65,229 participants  ie ~244,000 person-years , mean age 62yrs,  systolic BP 141, LDLC 3.45, mean duration 3.7yrs (Jupiter only 2.2yrs), 19% diabetics,   found no  benefit of statin therapy on all-cause mortality in a high-risk primary prevention set-up.
and 3  years later Taylor ea (London Univ Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013)  concluded  in   their abstract: Statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease THAT  Evidence available to date showed that primary prevention with statins is likely to be cost-effective and may improve patient quality of life. In Eighteen randomised control trials   in  56,934 participants , mean age 57yrs, cholesterol baseline 6.17mol/l, LDLC 4.1;  duration 1 to 5.3years ie mean about 3.15 years ( they did not report mean bloodpressure). . Fourteen trials recruited patients with specific conditions (raised lipids, diabetes, hypertension, microalbuminuria). All-cause mortality was reduced 14%  by statins (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.94).  as was combined fatal and non-fatal CVD RR 0.75 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81) There was no evidence of any serious harm caused by statin prescription .                         

heir full published paper tables   showed that statin use - in a mean time of only 3 years-   ” increased Diabetes 18% from 2.4% on placebo to 2.9% on statin; with  more fatal strokes,  liver, renal, arthritis adversity. and all-cause mortality from 5-1 to 4.4%; NUMBER NEEDED TO TREAT NNT 96. THE ABSTRACT DOES NOT GIVE THESE GLUM NUMBERS, that statins benefit  only 1 in a hundred.  BUT the dull paper states  Only the JUPITER trial showed strong  evidence of a reduction in total mortality.
As this column has previously pointed out, the Jupiter Trial was clearly flawed when we first reviewed it, and further debunked by diverse major groups by 2011/2 .
so while  the Cochrane study patients were 5 years younger but had baseline LDLC 19% higher,  than in the Cambridge analysis,   ie by age and LDLC, the Cochrane analysis could still not show meaningful reduction in mortality other than in the disputed Jupiter study.. But the Cochrane trials had only 1/8th of the diabetics in the Cambridge analysis.
     The 2013 Cochrane statin review’s   evidence for using statins for primary prevention in higher-risk persons without CVD  admits it’s antimortality benefit   is based solely on the weight of the seriously flawed Jupiter trial. But while the Taylor Cochrane analysis used only 8 of the trials (skipping PROSPER, ASCOT and ALLHAT)  analysed in the Ray Cambridge analysis, the Cochrane analysis added another 10 trials. Despite covering 7 more trials than the Cambridge 2010 analysis, the Cochrane analysis included 25% fewer patients than the Cambridge analysis,

     So  what the innocuous abstract of the London  UK  Cochrane review   failed to say is that, in their full paper (available on application)  weighted by the biased Jupiter trial,   to lower mortality by 14% in about 3.5years, to avoid one death,   96 well people need to take fairly vigorous dose statin for 1 to 5.4 years - or 1 patient for a few hundred years-   with serious risks of diabetes (up 18%), liver, kidney, myopathies, peripheral neuropathy, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and other diseases of the central nervous system (eg  cognitive impairment, depression, sleep disorders, nightmare, and headache- . mood (suicide risk increased 2.5 fold – Davison & Kaplan 2014 Canada );

and (unlike the anticancer benefits of metformin and vitamin D3) no benefits in reducing cancers rates. Such bad risk: benefit ratio confirms what  has always been known, that there is no place for mass long-term consumption of statin whether in a mythical Polypill (Wald and Law 2003-   with adverse Bblocker, ACEI and aspirin,) or even more farfetched added to our diet staples- water, bread etc..

It is common cause that diabetes increases major  risks 4 fold; so advocating  96 well people to take a statin to lower  mortality  by 1 case in 3.5 years ie 330 patient-years while >3% develop diabetes, stroke, depression, myositis, hepatorenal  and other major complications,  is  negligence,  when patients do so much better on metformin plus other natural proven life-extending  supplements like fish oil, coconut oil, vitamins esp vit D3 & K2,  minerals etc. 

As Pubpeer said on 27  July 2014, its a crisis of  trust in what top journals (in this case the Cochrane Review) publish. For TRUST read distrust…

This is in contrast to metformin prevention in similar overweight well people,  which lowers all risks by at least a third, with no adverse effects  provided dose is started low and titrated to tolerance ie ~250 to 2500mg a day. THE BMJ STATIN FUROR JUNE 2014:
Just last month, the long-awaited independent review of the BMJ June 2014 STATIN publication (of articles denouncing the value of statins for mass primary prevention ) confirmed  that the BMJ editors under  Dr Fiona Godlee were correct in  standing by the June papers  that there is no mortality benefit from statin treatment in people at less than a 20% 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease, as Canada implements.,
The panel, chaired by Dr Heath with  six internationally renowned experts, concluded the journal had handled the two articles appropriately and that its processes were timely and reasonable. 

Now  three new 2014  studies put more wolves  among the Big Pharma profiteering disease-mongering sheep:
one from India describing many promising new competitors to displace statins;  one from Oxford University warning yet again of the adverse effects of anticholesterols, this time by CETP inhibitors; and one from New York University mocking the wannabe Statinopause, statin deficiency:

      George,  Elangovan  ea in India  J Cardiovasc Pharmacol Ther. 2014 Jul  Look  into the Crystal Ball -Upcoming Drugs for Dyslipidemia: say: . Although statins are effective anti-dyslipidemic drugs, their use is fraught with issues such as failure of adequate lipid control in 30% of cases and intolerance in select patients. The limited potential of alternatives such as fibrates, bile acid sequestrants and niacin has spurred search for novel drug molecules with better efficacy and safety, eg  promising cholesteryl ester transfer protein CETP inhibitors such as evacetrapib and anacetrapib; (MTP) inhibitors eg lomitapide; Apo CIII inhibitors eg  mipomersen;  PCSK9 inhibitors eg evolocumab, alirocumab; farnesoid X receptor modulation; and Lp-PLA2 inhibition. While it may not be an easy proposition to dismantle statins from their current position as a cholesterol reducing agent and as a drug to reduce coronary and cerebro-vascular atherosclerosis, our improved understanding of the disease and appropriate harnessing of resources using sound and robust technology could make rapid in-roads in our pursuit of the ideal anti-dyslipidemic drug.

Miller NE. University of Oxford, UK   in F1000Res.2014 Jun   warns  Time to think again about .  CETP inhibitors and cardiovascular disease:   Inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) lowers plasma LDLC concentration and raises HDLC, suggesting it might prevent CVD. From the outset, however, the concept has been controversial owing to uncertainty about its effects on HDL function and reverse cholesterol transport (RCT). Although there has long been good evidence in rabbits  that CETP inhibition reduces atherosclerosis , the first information on CETP as a CVD risk factor in a prospectively followed cohort was not published until after the first Phase 3 trial of a CETP inhibitor had begun. The worrying finding that in humans CVD incidence was related inversely to plasma CETP has since been reproduced in each of five further prospective cohort studies. Similar results were obtained in subjects on or off statin therapy, for first and second CVD events, and for mortality as well as CVD morbidity. Additionally, two recent studies have found alleles of the CETP gene to be associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction. Meanwhile, CETP gene transfer in mice was found to increase RCT from peripheral macrophages in vivo, and human plasma with high CETP activity was shown to have a greater capacity to remove cholesterol from cultured cells than plasma with low activity. This mounting evidence  in humans and mice for a protective function of CETP has been given remarkably little attention, and indeed was not mentioned in several recent reviews.  It appears to show that CETP inhibition does not test the HDL hypothesis as originally hoped, and raises a pressing ethical issue regarding two Phase 3 trials of inhibitors, involving more than forty thousand subjects, which are currently in progress. As the weight of evidence now clearly supports an adverse effect of CETP inhibition on CVD, an urgent review is needed to determine if these trials should be discontinued.
Han, Weinberger, SutinNew York University. J Gen Intern Med. 2014 Aug. warn:  Statinopause.        Statins are the cornerstone of lipid-lowering therapy for CVD prevention. The  American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 guidelines represent a fundamental shift in how statins will be prescribed; recommending  statins for nearly all older patients up to age 75 years, including healthy adults with low normal lipid levels and no atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors other than age. Under the 2013 guidelines, age becomes a main determinant for initiating statin therapy for primary prevention among older adults. Specifically, according to the new guidelines, white males aged 63-75, white females aged 71-75, African American males aged 66-75, and African American females aged 70-75 with optimal risk factors would be recommended for statin treatment for primary prevention. Based on the new guidelines, one could term these older adults as having “statin deficiency,” a condition warranting statin treatment. We call this putative condition of age-related statin deficiency “statinopause.” After careful examination of the trial evidence, we find very little support for the new recommendations for primary prevention. The lack of evidence underscores the need for clinical trials to determine the risks and benefits of statin therapy for primary prevention among older adults.                                                                                                                                                           
HALF OF PATIENTS DISCONTINUE STATINS WITHIN A YEAR IN REAL LIFE:     Already in 2009    Goldenberg N1, Glueck C: wrote  in real life practice, about half of patients who are prescribed statins discontinue the medication by the end of the year. from the  Cholesterol and Metabolism Center,  Jewish Hospital, Cincinnati, Ohio, USAin  Vasc Health Risk Manag. .    Efficacy, effectiveness and real life goal attainment of statins in managing  CVS  risk. Statins became available in 1987 for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia .   Multiple, well-designed, placebo-controlled, double-blind studies revealed that each 1% reduction in serum cholesterol level was associated with about 1% reduction in risk of CVS events. Low-density lipoprotein (LDLC) cholesterol reduction to less than 78 mg/dL may be associated with reduction of atheroma burden. Patients with high levels of high specificity C-reactive protein and having LDLC less than 3.4 mmol/L (130 mg/dL) in primary prevention settings benefited from aggressive LDLC reduction with rosuvastatin over a 2-year period.  Medication adherence is lower in younger patients, women, and absence of known CHD. Personal features of the prescribing physician and dispensing pharmacies also affect patients’ compliance. More studies are needed to evaluate if “compliance packets” would benefit patients in a real life situation.
     Coenzyme q10 therapy 2014  .Garrido-Maraver J1,  Sánchez-Alcázar ea . at Seville Universities say coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10) have  key role in mitochondrial bioenergetics; antioxidant; obligatory cofactor for uncoupling proteins and a modulator of the mitochondrial transition pore; expression of genes ; human cell signaling, metabolism and transport. CoQ10 deficiencies are due to autosomal recessive mutations, mitochondrial diseases, aging-related oxidative stress and carcinogenesis processes, and statin treatment. Many neurodegenerative disorders, diabetes, cancer, and muscular and cardiovascular diseases have been associated with low CoQ10 levels as well as different ataxias and encephalomyopathies. CoQ10 causes no serious adverse effects in humans.  Oral a CoQ10 is a frequent  antioxidant used in many diseases that may provide a significant symptomatic benefit.

        Statin treatment and new-onset diabetes: a review of proposed mechanisms. Brault ,  Daskalopoulou ea .2014  at McGill and Harvard say   New-onset diabetes has been observed  involving statin therapy. To explain this association, three major mechanisms have been proposed . First, certain statins affect insulin secretion through direct, indirect or combined effects on calcium channels in pancreatic β-cells. Second, reduced translocation of glucose transporter 4 in response to treatment results in hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia. Third, statin therapy decreases other important downstream products, such as coenzyme Q10, farnesyl pyrophosphate, geranylgeranyl pyrophosphate, and dolichol; their depletion leads to reduced intracellular signaling.

     Michel de Lorgeril ea .Universite Joseph Fourier, Grenoble France  BMC Med.2013 ask: do statins inhibit omega-3?. Recent findings on the health effects of omega-3 fatty acids and statins, and their interactions. .Early randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrated the health benefits of omega-3 fatty acids (n-3), whereas recent RCTs were negative. We now address the issue, focusing on the temporal changes having occurred: most patients in recent RCTs are no longer n-3 deficient and the vast majority are now treated with statins. Recent RCTs testing n-3 against arrhythmias suggest that n-3 reduce the risk only in patients not taking a statin. Other recent RCTs in secondary prevention were negative although, in a post-hoc analysis separating statin users and non-users, non-significant protection of n-3 was observed among statin non-users whereas statin users had no effect. Recent RCTs testing statins – after the implementation of the New Clinical Trial Regulation in 2007 – are negative (or flawed) suggesting that the lack of effect of n-3 cannot be attributed to a parallel protection by statins. Finally, statins favor the metabolism of omega-6 fatty acids (n-6), which in turn inhibits n-3; and contrary to n-3, they increase insulin resistance and the risk of diabetes. Thus, n-3 and statins are counteractive at several levels and statins  inhibit n-3.

ie statins undo the proven benefits of omega3 and CoQ10. .


 Charles Glueck ea at the same Cincinnati Jewish Hospital. in  Med Hypotheses. 2011 describe HOW Vit D repletion reverses statin intolerance in 91% of statin-intolerant patients. Symptomatic myositis-myalgia in hypercholesterolemic statin-treated patients with concurrent vitamin D deficiency leading to statin intolerance may reflect a reversible interaction between vitamin D deficiency and statins on skeletal muscle.   Myositis-myalgia is the most common cause of statin intolerance, leading to cessation of statin use, with consequent failure to lower LDL cholesterol to target levels for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite published and new empirical evidence, the medical establishment has refused to accept it, requiring placebo-controlled, double-blind studies, none having been reported to date.

Glueck’s promotion of vitamin D as antidote or alternative to statin is borne out by at least 5 papers on Pubmed since 2003 (Kajinami), Yavuz 2009 ea ) –  some of which show that vit D level may rise significantly on statin.
       Now a  major review from Universities of Newcastle UK and Harvard by Kunadian, Manson ea   Am Heart J. 2014 of  Vitamin D deficiency and coronary artery disease: concludes: Coronary artery disease being the leading cause of death in developed countries, older patients are at particularly high risk of poor outcomes following acute coronary syndrome,  and impaired nutrition, including low vitamin D levels, may play a role.  Longitudinal studies have demonstrated increased cardiovascular mortality and morbidity associated with vitamin D deficiency. Low vitamin D levels have been linked to inflammation, higher coronary artery calcium scores, impaired endothelial function and increased vascular stiffness. Most available trials have tested only low doses of supplementation in relatively low-risk populations.

Specific Critiques of the Jupiter study and Contrasting results from other studies: :
 Wiki quotes Dr. Michel de Lorgeril, et al  In 2010,  published “a critical reappraisal” of the JUPITER Trial in the Archives of Internal Medicine,  what they saw as flaws in the trial, pointing out that the cardiovascular mortality rate and the case-fatality rate for myocardial infarction were much lower than they expected; they also questioned whether the study had been biased and perhaps manipulated because it was sponsored by a pharmaceutical company with a strong commercial interest in the outcome. They concluded that, “The results of the trial do not support the use of statin treatment for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases and raise troubling questions concerning the role of commercial sponsors.  In addition, some prior and some subsequent studies have contrasted with the JUPITER trial results.       Five  other major university papers in prestige journals  also criticized the Jupiter study in 2011/12: Samson ea Florida State, Serebruany Johns Hoplins; Ridker Harvard, and  Morrissey ea Cedars-Mt Sinai;  while Lopez and Wright from Spain and Canada published an exhaustive debunking of the Jupiter claims of significantly reduced mortality.
            as we have long questioned about mass use of statins, Jay Cohen MD 2014 Aug 4th asks in  the MedicationSense E-Newsletter again: what is The Truth About Crestor: Is Crestor Dangerous And, if so, Why?  Crestor is the newest statin and the strongest statin yet. Statins are highly touted drugs for reducing cholesterol. Studies clearly show that statins improve cholesterol numbers (by lowering LDL and raising HDL) and may reduce C-reactive protein. Statins impede atherosclerosis, reduce heart attacks and strokes, and cardiac death. Thus, the statins Lipitor and Zocor are not only the #1 and #2 top-selling drugs in America, but also household names.  Other statins include Pravachol, Mevacor, and Lescol–and now ultra-potent Crestor. Until 2001, there was another statin: Baycol. It was then the newest statin and a potent statin–until it was withdrawn because of dozens of deaths. Is Crestor another Lipitor or another Baycol? Although Crestor has been on the market only a year, it has already been linked to numerous cases of severe muscle breakdown, kidney toxicity, and deaths. Public Citizen recently petitioned the FDA to ban Crestor...

       Conclusion: these references reviewed confirm that  is no justification for the myth of routine use of statins for primary prevention in the average population, especially in view of their risks, especially  increase in diabetes, and the availability of safe and far more globally healthgiving natural antiaging antioxidant energizing  insulin-sensitizing supplements that do a far better job of reversing both CVD and all other major diseases. .

update  16 June 2014 as this column has argued since 2008 (and this author for 40 years in refusing to take them for lack of proof)-  given their numerous serious and nuisance harms-  there never has been good enough evidence to justify synthetic designer cholesterol-busters for primary prevention with mild-to-moderate cholesterolemia ie without the presence of cardiovascular disease;

in contrast to   harmless multipurpose (antiatheroma antidiabetic antithrombotic antihypertensive anticancer all-disease prevention) micronutrient supplements like fish oil, coconut oil, DMSO, metformin,  vitamins esp C D & K2, minerals esp magnesium, chromium, zinc, iodine; , human nonoral HRT, CoQ10, arginine, carnitine, carnosine ; numerous mixed medicinal herbs; etc.

In the Statin-use debate creates furor at BMJ    CMAJ  on June 16, 2014,   Carolyn Brown argues  “Statins are beneficial for people with proven coronary artery disease, but a recent BMJ article questioned their use as a prophylactic measure.            “Are statins going to have a big impact on coronary artery disease or are they going to be one of the big mistakes that the medical profession has made?” That’s the question asked by Dr. James Wright, a Canadian who co-authored an analysis of the evidence on statins that appeared in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) in October 2013. 

      ” It seems like a straightforward question, but that article has led to a furor in the United Kingdom, with a well-known researcher calling for its retraction and the BMJ editor-in-chief Fiona Godlee defending the journal’s publishing process on radio and television. At issue is the clinical uncertainty about the preventive use of statins. “We’re fairly certain that benefits outweigh the harms in people with proven coronary artery disease (CAD). That’s based on a highly statistically significant but modest reduction in total mortality,” says Wright, who is managing director and chair of the Therapeutics Initiative (TI) at the University of British Columbia. But he says most prescriptions for statins are aimed at preventing CAD.

               “The evidence for this is not as rigorous and serious adverse effects have been documented. The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recently proposed extending preventive use of statins from patients who have a 20% chance of developing CAD in the next 10 years (its current guideline) to those with a 10% risk. This has led to a debate over the accuracy of risk calculators, unnecessary prescribing in seniors (since age is a major risk factor) and adverse effects. Canada’s guidelines recommend statin therapy in patients with risk below 20% only if their levels of cholesterol or other indicators exceed certain thresholds. Wright believes the statin issue has become heated because “so many people are taking them. They have been in the news so much and there [is] so much money being spent on them.” “Publication of our article has reignited the debate,” says Dr. Kamran Abbasi, international editor of the BMJ, who spoke on behalf of Godlee. “There are people who disagree vehemently on this issue. They can’t reach any sort of consensus on it at the moment.” The BMJ article re-analyzed data from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists (CTT) Collaboration meta-analysis and cited adverse effects rates from various studies.

             ” Sir Rory Collins, a researcher at Oxford University and head of the CTT group, corresponded directly and met with Godlee in December 2013 about the article, calling for a retraction. He has also stated his view in media interviews. As a result of Collins’ complaint, the article was corrected, as the authors agreed that they had erred in reporting rates of side effects from the observational study. Wright says, “The issue around side effects is just that there is some harm.” The analysis had cited a rate of statin-related adverse effects of 18%; in fact, the original study found 17.4% of patients had a “statin-related event” but only approximately 9% discontinued statin therapy as a result. The correction affirmed that the CTT study failed to show that statins reduced the overall mortality risk in patients with a less than 20% risk of CAD over 10 years. Godlee also published an editorial explaining the journal’s decisions on how to handle the controversy and appointed an independent panel to rule on whether a retraction is warranted. Collins says he has submitted detailed material to this panel and maintains that there remain “extensive problems” with the analysis paper, beyond what the correction addressed. Charlotte Haug, vice-chair of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE).

update 2010   A new review, this time from a top team in France, further demolishes the deceptive  Jupiter trial promoting rosuvastatin Crestor, confirming that it was fatally flawed:

Cholesterol lowering, cardiovascular diseases, and the rosuvastatin-JUPITER Crestor controversy: a critical reappraisal.

Michael de Lorgeril ea conclude: ” The results of the trial do not support the use of statin treatment for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases and raise troubling questions concerning the role of commercial sponsors.”

This concurs with the fraud of modern medicine increasingly pursued by combined Drug Industry and Government Regulator conspiracy, including www.lef.org/…/Media-Attempts-to-Misrepresent-Scientific-Findings.htm


Justice Dept declares war on doctors.

and why use a drug that can cause cancer , and tendinopathy, and  thrombocytopenia? Pubmed  shows at least 7 causally linked case reports since 1992 and 2008 , including one  now for rosuvastatin.

and Univ California San Diego alone reports 300 cases of statin-related myopathy.

contrast this with the trial report last week from a hypertension unit in Israel where a simple combination of vits C & E, coQ10 and selenium for 6 months – with no risks- lowered arterial stiffening, hypertension, lipidemia and glucose.

so why use statins except in severe familial lipidemia?

Feb 4th 2010 

 Early last year this column pointed out that the JUPITER trial was another nail in the coffin of primary use of statins.

Now a University California    Davis team concur further   in “Another look at the results of the JUPITER trial…  that many of the participants did not receive care consistent with current standards. Thus, the benefit of statin therapy would have been more difficult to demonstrate if standard therapeutic recommendations had been followed. In conclusion, these considerations cast doubt on the contention that statin therapy should be initiated in apparently healthy individuals on the basisof elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels.


update 3 Sept 2014:  while the MERS outbreak in Arabia may at last be dying down, real highly infections plagues eg ebola malaria cholera typhoid, MRSA,  TB and HIV etc continue rampant, maiming and killing even more than the manmade wars raging on some continents. .

So it is ironic – or typical of the couldnt-care-less greedy politicians and potentates who run the world- that the medical authorities they employ  worldwide apparently continue to ignore the dramatic benefits of at least safe antimicrobial supplements like multivite, zinc, iodine, selenium,   and especially vigorous dose vitamin D3 at negligible cost, and highdose buffered vitamin C to tolerance, and colloidal silver.

Already 35 years ago Italian researchers published on Pubmed that vitamin D3 should be used orally  rather than injected D or as  oral vitamin D2:                   [Behavior of serum vit D in  humans after administration of vitamin D.   Boll Soc Ital Biol Sper. 1979   Coen G, Casciani CU ea.     “evaluated  Serum levels of 25 hydroxy-vit D  following injected and oral vit. D2 and D3 . While no rise in 25OHD3 serum levels was  observed after i. m. administration , a marked rise  was found following the oral administration. However the peak values were largely impredictable.”

We quoted below trials and evidence  that oral vit D2 may be actually harmful, that it is vit D3 in vigorous dose that is needed to at least treble if not quadruple the blood vit D level from the usual deficient levels we find, to between 60 and 100ng/ml during illness.  Unfortunately locally this is not only not grasped, but also the vit D assay kit  being used by  private laboratories measures only total 25OHvit D level, not the needed active 25OH vit D3 level  plus the potentially harmful (vitD receptor-blocking ) 25OHvit D2. This is a crucial omission which has been corrected by eg the Mayo Clini Lab, which routinely reports both D3 and D2 levels.

In the person not on vit D supplements, the mediocre ie insufficient total vit D level may mask that the crucial vit D3 level is actually seriously low- deficient.  In the person on vigorous vit D2 supplement (the spuriously named “strong calciferol” 50 000iu tab no longer prescribed in USA  but commonly in RSA,  that neglects to state it is D2 not D3), the total 25OH vit D assay will be even more misleading if the level  is well up, without the unwary being informed that it is harmful D2 that is elevated, and blocking the needed vit D3 level that the D2 is suppressing.

        15 June  2014 CRUCIAL EFFECTIVE VITAMIN D3 DOSING: A major new  metaanalysis of the benefit of Vitamin D3 and Respiratory Tract Infections RTI in PLOS 2013   at  Sweden’s Karolinska  Institute Bergman ea  showed that in the 11 relevant trials (published between 2007 and 2012 ie done through the first decade of this century) using vit D3,Overall, vitamin D showed a protective effect against RTI (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.84). And the average vit D level at baseline was only 24ng/ml, but with the mediocre  vit D3 doses used then  of average 2000iu/d (300 – 4000iu/day) given for between 7wks and 3 yrs, the average bloodlevel achieved on replacement was only 50% higher at 36ng/ml”.

     This confirms more direct experience  with higher doses that blood level increment, and benefit,  is proportionate to vit D3 dose, at least up to the proven speculative  safe upper dose of at least 10 000iu/day (whereas the proven safe longterm daily dose is up to 50 000iu/day). “More important, the protective effect was larger in studies using once-daily dosing compared to eg monthly  bolus doses (OR = 0.51 vs OR = 0.86, p = 0.01)”. This concurs with our experience of major benefit  against respiratory infection that is  based on published studies giving a loading month’s dose of about 80-100 iu/kg/day  ie ~3000iu/kg; then that monthly dose split conservatively eg 50 000iu every week or two depending on mass, and severity of ill-health; to a more successful blood-level of 60 to 100ng/ml.

Similarly, the  2014 VIDA trial   across USA-    Effect of Vitamin D3 on Asthma Treatment Failures in Adults With Symptomatic Asthma and Lower Vitamin D Level, Castro ea,  showed “Vitamin D3 for 28 weeks did not reduce the rate of first treatment failure or exacerbation in adults with persistent asthma and vitamin D insufficiency. These findings do not support a strategy of therapeutic vitamin D3 supplementation in patients with symptomatic asthma”But this trial had the same severe limitation as the Swedish metanalysis of vit D3 benefit- it also used only 4000iu/d. “While all were vitamin D insufficient ie below 30 ng/ ml  before the trial and half were deficient with levels below 20 ng/mL, supplementation brought levels above the 30 ng/mL threshold for 82% in that group – mean levels were 41.8 ng/mL at week 28 in the supplement group, while the mean stayed in the deficient range for those who got placebo. ”  So 4000iu/day merely doubled the bloodlevel to only about 40ng/ml – only about half of the putative optimal dose. 

These recent studies force us to conclude that bad weather, and  bad prevalent respiratory viruses,  and especially with major acute, or chronic illness as in those with or at risk of serious infections eg major trauma or sepsis,   MERS-CoV, Ebola, malaria, cholera, cancer, diabetics, smokers, asthmatics, bronchitics,   AIDS-TB., pneumonia and old age  sufferers, and especially hospital, laboratory  and clinic- health workers-  we should  give a loading dose of about 4000iu/kg, then 10 000 iu/d for an average 70kg adult,  or 50 000iu every 5 days, or more simply 75000iu (about 1.5ml of 100cws vit D3 powder) weekly; or at a stretch, 300000 if not 400 000iu monthly. . As  the common  imported powder concentrate  is 100 000 iu / Gm ie per 2 ml, it is simple to take the slightly sweetish powder up to  2 or more 4 ml teaspoons ie 200 000  -400  000 iu on the tongue.   

The majority of residents of developed countries now live urbanised with mechanized transport, do not live and work / walk  all day stripped in the sun. The poor malnourished  peasants  live crowded in ghettoes , and  the poorest are generally the darkest skinned and therefore make the least vitamin D3. So with rare exceptions, everyone needs the vigorous vitamin D 3 doses discussed above.

But at the prevalent bulk vit D3  powder price of  at most about  $0,o2 per 100 ooo iu, at a mean population age of around 20 to 25 yrs -outside  Europe- it would cost a country of eg 50 million people perhaps $o.5 per head per  year ie conservatively $25 million a year to prevent > 90% of common illnesses including drugging and violence consequences.  Of course no government can tolerate  such massive loss of jobs and taxes  in a decimated disease industry that turns over $ trillions annually – up to 18 % of national budgets.     So it’s up to individual adults, especially householders, educators and employees ,  to see that the cheapest cure- all  after clean water – vitamin D3 – is recommended and freely available.

13 June 2014  TIME   TO SWOP FROM MISNAMED  “STRONG CALCIFEROL” VIT D2 TO THE REAL VIT  D3:     as the winter solstice approaches here, with fierce weather linking to  the expected influenza-like outbreak (while the MERS-CoV outbreak abates with summer in the severely vitamin D deficient Saudi Arabians), a new major study shows the supremacy of vitamin D3 for supplementation, and confirms that vitamin D2 benefit if any  is so mediocre as to be unethical..

Its sad that despite the strong evidence against using vitamin D2 supplement discussed last year,  it seems no one acted on  it despite the confirmatory paper from Bergen of last September. Further evidence discrediting vitamin D2 use and promoting vitamin D3 has now appeared from a group of top USA and Belgian academics (Barrett-Connor, Cauley, Orwoll ea   , suggesting that giving vit D2 may actually be worse than nothing;  and confirms the trial  we quoted before of Dierkes ea in Bergen a year ago   in the same leading scientific journal  that giving vit D2 actually halves the crucial 25hydroxy vit D3 level;  whereas giving vit D3 doubles the vit D3 level.

Thus vit D3 is again confirmed as four times as potent as D2. But crucially, that giving vit D2 may actually SUPPRESS the optimal  serum vit D3  level.
We health professionals with our highly vulnerable populations in South Africa and worldwide   (epidemic/endemic  HIV, TB, cancer, drug addiction, MERS-CoV, asthma, diabetes, cardiovascular,  malnutrition, alcoholism and violence) therefore surely have no choice but to swop promptly from prescribing vit D2 “Strong Calciferol” (a dangerous misnomer) to prescribing vitamin D3 at vigorous dose (with if possible occasional blood level check of 25OHvit D3)- at a trivial imported and distributed cost (100cws)  to South African state clinics  of perhaps<1/4 of the cost of D2 eg  R1 per patient per month for a conservative 100 000iu monthly  (ie  after an appropriate germicidal  loading dose of eg 3000 iu/kg) if not the more realistic dose double that- still at only eg US$0.2 a month.
Health Authorities everywhere have an obligation to enforce the use of vitamin D3 and not vitamin  D2 globally ..

2 February 2014 VITAMIN D 3 DENIALISM:                                                       Dr John Cannell psychiatrist and nutritionalist  of the Vitamin D Council has posted a comprehensive rebuttal of the Autier review’s damnation of vitamin D at http://www.vitamindcouncil.org/blog/a-look-at-the-recent-lancet-review-study/.

Queries  and rebuttals    all over the world are questioning the negative French  (Autier ea)   Vitamin D status and ill health: a systematic review   published last month by the UK Lancet            Low serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) have been associated with many non-skeletal disorders. However, whether low 25(OH)D is the cause or result of ill health is not known. We did a systematic search of prospective and intervention studies that assessed the effect of 25(OH)D concentrations on non-skeletal health outcomes in individuals aged 18 years or older. We identified 290 prospective cohort studies (279 on disease occurrence or mortality, and 11 on cancer characteristics or survival), and 172 randomised trials of major health outcomes and of physiological parameters related to disease risk or inflammatory status. Investigators of most prospective studies reported moderate to strong inverse associations between 25(OH)D concentrations and cardiovascular diseases, serum lipid concentrations, inflammation, glucose metabolism disorders, weight gain, infectious diseases, multiple sclerosis, mood disorders, declining cognitive function, impaired physical functioning, and all-cause mortality. High 25(OH)D concentrations were not associated with a lower risk of cancer, except colorectal cancer. Results from intervention studies did not show an effect of vitamin D supplementation on disease occurrence, including colorectal cancer. In 34 intervention studies including 2805 individuals with mean 25(OH)D concentration lower than 50 nmol/L at baseline supplementation with 50 μg per day or more did not show better results. Supplementation in elderly people (mainly women) with 20 μg vitamin D per day seemed to slightly reduce all-cause mortality. The discrepancy between observational and intervention studies suggests that low 25(OH)D is a marker of ill health. Inflammatory processes involved in disease occurrence and clinical course would reduce 25(OH)D, which would explain why low vitamin D status is reported in a wide range of disorders. In elderly people, restoration of vitamin D deficits due to ageing and lifestyle changes induced by ill health could explain why low-dose supplementation leads to slight gains in survival.

and the accompanying anonymous Lancet editorialchasing a myth?

Ongoing randomised clinical trials assessing the ability of vitamin D supplementation to reduce the risk of several non-skeletal disorders involve a population larger than that of Cambridge, UK, and will cost millions  of research dollars. VITAL, for example, will enroll 20 000 participants and has US$22 million in funding.  This vast investment of effort by patients, researchers,  and funders is laudable, as it is almost certain that it will be sufficient to answer a question that has long kept the medical community in the dark.
                 Vitamin D first became a medical success story when its importance in bone health and calcium homoeostasis was proven decades ago. Since then, epidemiological  evidence has been accumulating to support a role for vitamin D in the protection of individuals from various   non-skeletal disorders including cancer, cardiovascular diseases, autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, dementia, and diabetes; it might also reduce all- cause mortality. Many of these studies show a strong association between low vitamin D concentrations anddisease. However, the results of myriad recent small randomised controlled trials are almost unanimous in  concluding that vitamin D supplementation provides  protection from few, if any, of these outcomes.


      Vitamin D is a steroid hormone with pleiotropic and tissue-specific effects owing to the wide expression of  the nuclear vitamin D receptor in many different tissues,and the many genes that are targeted by its actions.  In the skeletal system, vitamin D promotes healthy development and remodelling of bone. In other tissues,   vitamin D is postulated to mediate potentially beneficial  effects via a wide variety of mechanisms: some evidence  suggests that it exerts anticancer activity by limiting hyperproliferation of certain cell types, that it promotes metabolic health by regulating lipid metabolism in adipocytes, and that it limits autoimmunity by  suppressing inappropriate immune responses.  In a systematic review in   The  Lancet Diabetes &  Endocrinology editorial , Philippe Autier and colleagues discuss a large number of observational studies suggesting  That high serum concentrations of vitamin D   might be protective.
      For example, those with high vitamin D had decreased risk of cardiovascular events      by up to 58%), diabetes (by up to 38%), colorectal  cancer (by up to 33%), and all-cause mortality (by  up to 29%). However, they also compare these findings with the results of randomised clinical  trials, which reveal a very different picture: no reduction in risk was found, even in trials involving adequate supplementation of participants with lowvitamin D levels at baseline (less than 50 nmol/L). Autier and colleagues also did a new meta-analysis  of 16 trials that assessed the effects of vitamin D supplementation on blood HbA1c, a biomarker mainly   used for monitoring disorders of glucose metabolism.
Although type 2 diabetes is associated with  low vitamin D, the results show that vitamin D supplementation does not reduce HbA1c
. Thus, it looks increasingly likely that low vitamin D is not a cause but  a consequence of ill health.


Despite the growing body of evidence indicating  that vitamin D is unlikely to prevent non-skeletal   disorders, there is strong support for its use from  many prominent members of the research community,  which is fuelled by the relatively low toxicity of vitamin D, the glimmer of positivity from some trials,and the large body of evidence from prospective  observational studies. For those who ‘believe’, the  lack of benefi t found in most trials completed thus  far can be attributed to issues including inadequate  supplementation, testing of a population not  sufficiently vitamin D deficient at baseline, incorrect
formulation, underpowering, or insufficient follow-up.  Vitamin D might not be safe in all settings, however.
Supplementing at high doses could cause harm in  people with already high concentrations of serum  vitamin D, particularly in those with liver, kidney, or  vascular problems. This is a concern, given the large  number of people taking vitamin D supplements (up  to 50% of adults in the USA).
Large clinical trials to assess the effects of vitamin D on non-skeletal health outcomes are  therefore justified. It would be a real boon to patients if the results are positive, but unless effect sizes for clinically important outcomes are large, the results will only confirm the neutral effect reported by most clinical trials thus far. Although this investment might  therefore have little effect on current guidelines, the results will at least allow the research community to  move on.


This French  review of Vitamin D is the sort of tactic regularly concocted by Big Pharma and the Disease Industry for the media,  to discourage patients and doctors  from taking/prescribing  effective doses of supplements (beyond a lowdose  multivite a day), instead force them to take Big Pharma poisons- synthetic new risky designer drugs- like antibiotics, antipain,  anticancer, anticholesterol, antiosteoporosis, antiplatelet,antihypertensive, vaccines, antiflu,  –    to make massive profits for the Disease Industry,  but not address or cure the deficiency causes of disease.     At the behest of Big Pharma like Roche, their lobbyists the FDA, the  European Medicines Authority and the UK NHS are  trying to push through legislation that will make anything but lowdose multisupplements available to the public solely on doctors’ prescription.
Meanwhile, Big Pharma companies are paying fines of over $10 billion  a year for promoting their snakeoil  prescription designer drugs by fraud, when these drugs are allowed to be registered for chronic use after small trials of only 6 to 12 weeks, and the researchers who  publish the trials for megadollar fees are regularly caught out, fired but rarely  jailed.                                                                            ……         The Big Pharma guys simply bill the cost of the fines into their marketing expenses- their bosses, and the politicians they buy off,  are too big to jail… Regulators then allow the drugs to be prescribed for years  until enough patients sicken and die for there to be an uproar and cancellation- as  happened recently with Prot(e)os the synthetic ranelate ‘osteoporosis’  snakeoil;.      Now a top Dutch researcher has been fired for falsifying trials to promote betablockers for hypertension – when these have been discredited as routine therapy  for this purpose  for over a decade.
yet the Regulators led by the FDA – which is massively funded solely  by Big Pharma as their ally- insists that vitamins, minerals and other long-proven natural supplement therapeutics, prime human hormones  like melatonin and physiological human sexhormone creams , have to undergo $multimillion trials before they can be marketed as already  long-evident safe effective therapies.

none of the vit D   trials used the dose of vit D3 now recommended on solid evidence  that we should all take   – 80 (to 100)iu/kg/day or 2400-3000iu/kg/month of vitamin D3- ie about 150 000 – 200 000 iu to start and then per month for average adults –  to maintain healthy 25OH vit D levels around 60-100ng/m (here our bloodlevels are usually between 10 and 20 !  because we take little dairy products, nuts and sunshine- we cover up and live indoors.)  .

Most  of the reported trials used only about 5% of the recommended  vit D  dose ie ~200 to 400iu/day ie 6 iu/kg/day!  this dose does nothing except partly prevent rickets-  in infants!  Pregnant women are still routinely given such weak near-nonsensical doses of vit D.

and as Cannell’s review of the Autier analysis  points out, the vitamin D  trials trials under way – * in USA-Boston VITAL study 20 000pts)   ,           Finland (FIND 18000 pts    and     UK(VIDAL 1600pts ) ,  in some 40 000 subjects, due for publication only  between 2017-2020-  are using only 1600 to  3200iu vit D a day or about 48  000 to 96000iu/month ie perhaps 32iu (25 to 40) /kg/day. So  they are testing still modest doses and blood level targets. .

Read about the fraud of the Disease Industry at http://healthspanlife.wordpress.com/2014/01/20/vitamins-c-d3-avoiding-vitamin-denialism/ - especially about the dodgy ” Strong Calciferol’ tabs (Lennons)- which are not what you expect (vit D3) but vit D2 (the label, and package insert, dont tell you this) . vit  D3 powder is half the price but apparently 4 times as strong as D2.

ideally you should check your 25OH vit D and calcium levels to make sure you are on the right dose- but always taking some magnesia supplement, and at least 2 liter of water/ sodawater/clear fluid a day to avoid dehydration, kidney stones and vascular disease (which  highdose calcium supplement eg 1000mg  & vit D3   400iu/day cause).


It is sad to record that Dr Walter Stumpf died suddenly a few months ago during ongoing correspondence. The world  has lost a teacher  of the century in both biological sciences and the humanities, metaphysics and philosophy,..

This week – as flu mushrooms  in the southern hemisphere autumn- the Canadian Medical Association Journal  April 3-8 features  early-release articles on concerns about the Asian flu viruses and especially the SARS-nCorVirus. Is mass vaccination the answer?  or did this in fact worsen mortality in previous North American  epidemics of eg H1N1?  which brings us back to global protection against infections and all major diseases with lowcost safe VitaminD3 at say 50 000iu(~700iu/kg)/week plus the other all-system protective  supplements – eg multivitamins (especially vit C and K) and minerals especially  magnesium, zinc, idine  and selenium; and during epidemic times, major daily boost in vits D3 and C.

In December 2012 the University of San Diego published a useful researched update on vitamin D3 and breast cancer; pointing out again that while the increase in benefit obviously drops off with increasing dose, safe dose is up to at least 10 000iu a day or 70 000iu a week, to a bloodlevel around 100ng/ml; and toxic dose requires at least 40 000 iu a day chronically (if not 600 000iu/d as other evidence suggests). The projections for breast cancer reduction fit with the same team’s predictions in 2007.

So apart from maintaining good water intake, and avoiding taking ill-advised unbalanced solo calcium supplement, for optimal dosing   in those with cancer or any other high risk, blood levels of both 25hydroxy vit D3,   1,25 calciferol, calcium, phosphate  and creatinine, should be monitored occasionally, to avoid the rare risk of kidney stones and arterial/breast calcinosis.

Remember that magnesia, phosphate and vitamin C  and K2 supplements are amongst the most important of at least 40  to accompany vitamin D3.

Last month three new studies affirmed the importance of vigorous vitamin D3 levels for genetic, heart and all health.

Holick’s group at Boston University   show the profound .Influence of vitamin d status and vitamin d3 supplementation on genome wide expression of white blood cells. No studies have reported on how vitamin D status and vitamin D3 supplementation affects broad gene expression in humans. A randomized, double-blind, single center pilot trial was conducted for comparing vitamin D supplementation with either 400 IUs (n = 3) or 2000 IUs (n = 5) vitamin D3 daily for 2 months on broad gene expression in the white blood cells collected from 8 healthy adults.   in the winter.   CONCLUSION SIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest that any improvement in vitamin D status will significantly affect expression of genes that have a wide variety of biologic functions of more than 160 pathways linked to cancer, autoimmune disorders and cardiovascular disease with have been associated with vitamin D deficiency. This study reveals for the first time molecular finger prints that help explain the nonskeletal health benefits of vitamin D

Tehran University  http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23517460  showed clearly that    Vitamin D Supplementation Improve the Severity of Congestive Heart Failure. In  100  heart failure patients with (NYHA) class I ,   Only 6% of the participants had a sufficient serum concentration of 25(OH) D >30 nmol/L. Patients with insufficient or deficient serum levels of 25(OH) D (<30 ng/mL and <20 ng/mL, respectively) received oral vitamin D3 for 4 months. Vitamin D supplement increased mean serum 25(OH) D from 12.6 nmol/L to 54 nmol/L (P<.001). After vitamin D supplement, the serum level of pro-brain natriuretic peptide markedly decreased (P<.001). Cholecalciferol significantly decreased high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level (P<.001). Restoration of serum 25(OH) D level was also associated with substantial improvement in hear tfailure (P<.001) and 6-minute walk distance (P<.001).

 and Robert Heaney’s group at Creighton University   http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23514768  that .  All-Source Basal Vitamin D Inputs Are Greater Than Previously Thought and Cutaneous Inputs Are Smaller.    

The magnitude of vitamin D inputs in individuals not taking supplements is unknown.. they reanalyzed 3000 subjects’  individual 25(OH)D concentration data from 8 studies involving vitD3  supplement.  The total basal input (food plus solar) was calculated to range from a low of 778 iu/d in patients with end-stage renal disease to a high of 2667 iu/d in healthy Caucasian adults. Consistent with expectations, obese individuals had lower baseline, unsupplemented 25(OH)D concentrations and a smaller response to supplements. Similarly, African Americans had both lower baseline concentrations and lower calculated basal, all-source inputs. Seasonal oscillation in 4 studies ranged from 5.20 to 11.4 nmol/L, reflecting a mean cutaneous synthesis of cholecalciferol ranging from 209 to 651 iu/d at the summer peak. We conclude that: 1) all-source, basal vitamin D inputs are approximately an order of magnitude higher than can be explained by traditional food sources; 2) cutaneous, solar input in these cohorts accounts for only 10-25% of unsupplemented input at the summer peak; and 3) the remainder must come from undocumented food sources, possibly in part as preformed 25(OH).

Update March 2010

August 2009  SUMMARY: Evidence is overwhelming  that the prime sun-induced steroid hormone Vitamin D3 cholecalciferol – soltriol- is  invaluable in  20fold   higher  dose ie   perhaps  5000 to 10 000iu/day rather  than has been preached to date (200- 400iu/d), as part of lifelong  hormone replacement  HRT to prevent all major chronic degenerative diseases in all humans living and working indoors.  Effective dose of vitamin D3 supplement can reduce deathrate and disease by an astonishing 20%- that is indeed a panacea almost as good as other natural micronutrient supplements eg  fish oil, metformin, and appropriate sex hormone replacement SHRT.   It is becoming clear that with rare exceptions everyone- especially those  with serious disease eg cancer, heart, lung, brain, nerve/muscle/bone/joint  or inflammatory bowel diseases or  chronic infections like TB  HIV  influenza  or human papilloma virus –   should take a daily supplement of about 10 000iu (1/4 mg)  vitamin D for as little as ~ R10 US$1  a month ; ideally  under supervision of some  health professional.  All that is required is occasional check of blood chemistry, and good diet and  fluid intake.

And obviously because of vitamin D3’s  benefits in lowering all diseases, when using vigorous dose vitamin D, one must  expect to need to lower  prescription drug treatments for diabetes, hypertension, depression, heart disease, lung disease, arthritis, infections  etc  as these ailments  improve from the vitamin D  replacement over months.

INTRODUCTION:  Battling to help some desperate patients this week – mostly women-  with cancer, vascular, rheumatoid, lupus, diabetic, depressive, osteoporotic  and infective disease- especially now the quadruple perils of infections  - influenza; human papilloma virus; AIDS and tuberculosis - let alone nuisances like shingles  candida or  herpes –  prompts a thorough review of the polyfunctional vitamin of this decade- vitamin D3, cholecalciferol, soltriol (Stumpf WE).

This  review is especially appropriate on our Womens’ Day 9 August 2009 for a natural product so important for the health of women , that commemorates the year  1956 when 20 000 women marched in defiance of  male despots’  fascist apartheid pass laws. The ages-old discrimination against women is epitomized by the pragmatic liberal economist Professor Ken Galbraith’s lecture to the Royal Society of Medicine in 1973 on the problem of unequal development and centralization of power in male technostructure – profit maximization.

No-where in business is this better shown than in Big Business creating demand  by saturation marketing,  including the medicalization of health.  This  involves  disease-mongering through creating unnecessary  concerns so as to expand markets among the well  for  patents eg  blanket cholesterol or mammography or colonoscopy  screening,  or remedies   for eg female arousal disorder, anxiety, reactive depression, mild-to-moderate hypercholesterolemia – when very few have been proven to  need or benefit from such labels, procedures and drugs.


The first  of 46200 entries on Medline  on vitamin D is  from Oxford by Heaton 1922 . There are 272 500 entries on vitamins since 1918,  the first specific one by Jack Drummond in 192o, but of course vitamin D was first identified by Mellanby 1919, preceded by vits A, B1 and C between 1909 and 1912. From a recent historical review (table 1) of hormones, vitamin D3  was  perhaps the 7th hormone recognized  after testosterone and  estrogen (China 2600 years ago) ,  thyroid (1891)  epinephrine secretin parathyroid and antidiuretic hormone.

Soltriol is an  exquisite description  for a sun-activated steroid, the  cardinal prohormone vitamin D3  made  from cholesterol via sunlight exposure. Soltriol is not in a 1964 Oxford Dictionary, nor is it’s etymology detectable on Google search; it was indeed invented by  the pioneer polymath neurologist Dr  Walter Stumpf . On Medline search for soltriol, the first result is  Corradino 1973…

It is intriguing to read that Dr Stumpf  graduated in medicine in 1952- and 50 years later  in 2005 he wrote on his website: “From the microautoradiographic target recognition and related actions it follows that vitamin D has healing potential for prevention and treatment of various deficiencies and ailments, including old age: a PANACEA? If there is any compound that deserves being designated a panacea, the multifunctional heliogenic vitamin D appears a suitable candidate.   Philosophical consideration: “Vitamin D”, the term does not reflect its significance. I have used instead SOLTRIOL in several publications as a more appropriate designation. – Is there not a link to Heraclitus emanation of “ ever-living fire ”? The cosmic solar fire (Soltriol) as the sustaining life force, providing wave length energies for Temperature, Visible Light , and Ultraviolet B “. ”  The Main Biological Role of Vitamin D is Seasonal Adjustment of Vital Functions: These include regulation of growth, reproduction, survival stress response; endocrine and exocrine secretion, cell proliferation, cognition and mood; neuro-motor, neuro-endocrine, and neuro-sensory functions, immune response, cardio-vascular and gastro-intestinal functions, regulation of calcium and other mineral levels, cell proliferation and protein synthesis-differentiation.

Considering the decades of vitamin D use for its other benefits, it is ironic that a 1999 University California website on The History of Vitamin D has never been updated to cover more than the anti-rickets protection from vitamin D. But as Prof Stumpf writes to  me today, ultimately it is the sun that is the panacea, transmitting it’s healing powers via the skin-activated messenger hormone vitamin D.


It is now almost  a year since this column last reviewed vitamin D3’s benefits against all major diseases   (see table) – during which year  scores of new randomized controlled trials RCTs of vitamin D have appeared- there are now some 1680 RCTs on it since  1965.  Carpenter 1999 reviews Forgotten Mysteries in the History of Vitamin D.

Women have a raw deal:  due to their prime role and innate sense for survival of the species, for nuturing and caring, they live  about 10% longer than their mates, but as a result endure far more illness, as well as assault, disability and murder (mostly  inflicted by the careless male).

PROTEAN STEROIDS, PROTEAN FUNCTIONS: Calcitriol is one of many human steroids that include the sex hormones, aldosterne and digoxin; as well as  nonhuman steroids which also have important medicinal use- like phytosteroids, equine steroids like the equilins eg premarin, and the important ecdysteroids in insects and some plants.   Stumpf has again stressed the wide distribution in humans  of vitamin D receptors VDRs, indicating their importance in protean human functions far beyond calcium regulation.

VITAMIN D AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY: it is just a year since Melamed ea from USA showed that  having low vitamin D (as opposed to high level)  increases all-cause mortality by 26%- thus taking submaximum safe dose of vitamin D  can improve chance of survival by about 20%.  This for as little as R10/month – $1-  in South Africa.

In 2000,  the Seven Country Study Group showed that  ” saturated fat,vitamin C and smoking are the major determinants of all-causemortality at the population level” ie the higher the fat and smoking intake and the lower the vitamin C, the higher the deathrate. We now know better-  serious vitamin D deficiency joins the list, which of course includes alcoholism. .


Pizzorno 2009 reviews the strong evidence of the importance of balanced vitamins A D and K supplements in reversing the epidemics of both CVD and osteoporosis.


over 20 articles already this year attest to the importance of vigorous vitamin D levels in reducing these diseases.


The much higher incidence of autoimmune diseases in women – especially SLE systemic lupus erythematosis and RA rheumatoid arthritis-    let alone far higher younger  female  risk for fractures- must have  been obvious for millennia.  So obviously genetic female factors play a major role in these diseases – now surely attributable   largely to  the reproductively necessary absence of the Y chromosome, and thus the 100fold lower testosterone: estradiol T:E2 ratio in women (perhaps 2:1) than in men (in youth, >200:1).. It is common cause that estrogen is immunostimulant whereas testosterone  and progesterone (like vitamin D) are immunomodulating. Hence testosterone and progesterone levels soar during pregnancy to prevent the mother rejecting her foetus. This partly also explains why vigorous vitamin D supplement also greatly improves fertility and pregnancy outcome.

VITAMIN D AND RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS: many studies  show  the benefits of the prime anabolic steroids- vitamin D and androgen (Devis 1950)  supplements-  in treatment of all inflammatory disease, especially when inflammation itself weakens bone and all other tissues. The latest – last month (Chabchoub 2009)- shows “a possible role for XCI mosaicism in the pathogenesis of RA and thyroid disease  and may in part explain the female preponderance of these diseases”. But the first and only randomized controlled trial of the effect of vitamin D on modifying  RA  appears in  1973 (Brohult)  and the only open  trial (Andjelkovic  1999) in RA  showed that            “alphacalcidiol is a powerful immunomodulatory agent with fairly low hypercalcemic activity”.

VITAMIN D INTOXICATION:  The low toxicity of vitamin D3  is fortunate because while it is ideal to monitor vitamin D levels on effective replacement, the blood test costs about R660- $80- locally;  hence all one needs to do is exclude kidney problems (which may need even higher dose of vitamin D3), and risk of kidney stones- but perhaps checking blood calcium and creatinine  at baseline and occasionally, and ensuring balanced supplement of calcium-magnesium – boron-zinc-manganese-(iron if deficient)  and vitamins B, C, D and K.   Since vitamin D intoxication (toxic rise in blood calcium- hypercalcemia) in some opinions  requires ~>600 000iu/day for months, ths is inconceivable unless one were to swallow say twelve  50 000iu vitamin D every day for months.   So the only recognized form of vitamin D intoxication could be an industrial accident involving mistaken use of vitamin D concentrate in medicine.

HYPERCALCEMIA HIGH BLOOD CALCIUM: medical causes  are rare without gross calcium overdose (milk alkali syndrome) or other specific symptomatic diseases – eg primary hyperparathyroidism, sarcoidosis, tuberculosis, and lymphoma.And fortunately most patients with these diseases and hypercalcemia are far more likely to benefit from therapeutic treatment with vitamin D than worsen on it.

OVERDOSE:      HYPERVITAMINOSIS D: WIKI says   “Vitamin D stored in the human body as calcidiol (25-hydroxy-vitamin D) has a half-life of about 20 to 29 days.[17] Ordinarily, the synthesis of bioactive vitamin D hormone is tightly regulated, and prevalent thinking is that vitamin D toxicity usually occurs only if excessive doses (prescription forms or rodenticide[38] .   Serum levels of calcidiol (25-hydroxy-vitamin D) are typically used to diagnose vitamin D overdose. In healthy individuals, calcidiol levels are normally between 32 to 70 ng/mL (80 to 175 nmol/L), but these levels may be as much as 15-fold greater in cases of vitamin D toxicity. Serum levels of bioactive vitamin D hormone (1,25(OH2)D) are usually normal in cases of vitamin D overdose. Symptoms include Dehydration Vomiting Decreased appetite (anorexia) Irritability Constipation Fatigue.

Overdose of vit D3 has been observed at 1925 µg/d (77,000 IU per day). Acute overdose requires between 600,000 and 1,680,000 IU per day over a period of several days to months, with a safe intake level being 10,000 IU per day.

A 2007 risk assessment suggested that 250 micrograms/day (10,000 IU) in healthy adults should be adopted as the tolerable upper limit.[39] In adults, sustained intake of 100,000 IU can produce toxicity within a few months.[2] For infants (birth to 12 months) the tolerable UL is set at 1000 IU, and 40,000 IU has been shown to produce toxicity within 1 to 4 months.  All known cases of vitamin D toxicity with hypercalcemia have involved intake of or over 40,000 IU)[42].

Although normal food and pill vitamin D concentration levels are far too low to be toxic in adults, people taking multiples of the normal dose of codliver oil may reach toxic levels of vitamin A, not vitamin D, [43] if taken in an attempt to increase the levels of vitamin D. Most officially-recorded historical cases of vitamin D overdose have occurred due to manufacturing and industrial accidents.[42]

Some symptoms of vitamin D toxicity are a result of hypercalcemia caused by increased intestinal calcium absorption. Vitamin D toxicity is known to be a cause of high blood pressure.[45] Gastrointestinal symptoms of vitamin D toxicity can include anorexia, nausea, and vomiting. These symptoms are often followed by polyuria (excessive production of urine), polydipsia (increased thirst), weakness, nervousness, pruritus (itch), and eventually renal failure. Other signals of kidney disease including elevated protein levels in the urine, urinary casts, and a build up of wastes in the blood stream can also develop.[2] In one study, hypercalciuria and bone loss occurred in four patients with documented vitamin D toxicity.[46] Another study showed elevated risk of ischaemic heart disease when 25D was above 89 ng/mL.[47] Vitamin D toxicity is treated by discontinuing vitamin D supplementation, and restricting calcium intake. If the toxicity is severe blood calcium levels can be further reduced with corticosteroids or bisphosphonates. In some cases kidney damage may be irreversible.[2]

Exposure to sunlight for extended periods of time does not normally cause vitamin D toxicity.[42] This is because within about 20 minutes of ultraviolet exposure in light skinned individuals (3–6 times longer for pigmented skin) the concentration of vitamin D precursors produced in the skin reach an equilibrium, and any further vitamin D that is produced is degraded.[48] Maximum endogenous production with full body exposure to sunlight is 250 µg (10,000 IU) per day.[42]“


Biologically, the most imperative function for species survival is sex- reproduction.   Vitamin D is clearly a potent  anabolic reproductive steroid like testosterone:   The first paper on this association on Pubmed appears in 1963 from Russia (Gokinaeva).

Stumpf 1989 at Univ N Carolina reported that “vitamin D (soltriol)  regulates and modulates reproductive processes in the female and male, controlling  reproductive processes from onset of puberty to  fertility, pregnancy, lactation, and probably sexual behavior.”

Mirzahossein in 1996 showed that,” given in the critical period of foetal imprinting, vitamin D  may  influence steroid hormone-receptor commanded events for life in a way similar to synthetic steroid hormone analogues”. So as with marine omega3., it is crucial that future parents take enough vitamin D.

Friedrich 2002 showed that  even prostate, colon and   normal cervical tissue and cervical cancer cells have VDRs – vit D receptors- and may be new targets for cancer prevention or cancer treatment.

Kalueff 2005 showed that it influences even neurological receptors eg grooming behaviour in mammals.

And now Blauer 2009 shows that it reduces growth by up to 60% in human uterus muscle and fibroids- leiomyomas.

VITAMIN D AND PAIN: this week Khan ea from Kansas University describe Effect of vitamin D supplement  on  joint pain and fatigue in women starting adjuvant letrozole treatment for breast cancer. But the first Pubmed reference on vitamin D and pain is from von Wendt 1951.  Gerwin 2005 recognized vitamin D deficiency as a cause of fibromyalgia- chronic fatigue syndrome.

and Glueck ea from Cincinnati show that vitamin D supplement for low vitamin D abolishes statin – induced  myalgia.

VITAMIN D AND SLE- SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSIS: on medline the first reference to immunosuppression with vitamin D was  by Bourdial  1963 on nasal allergy, and the first  for vitamin D and immunomodulation is by Nagler & Pollack 1986.:

However, the first paper  on the importance of Vitamin D3 deficiency   in  SLE appeared in Germany  1963, but the first paper in English and from an English country  only in 1979 (O’Regan).

The focus throughout has been on the benefit of vitamin D in reversing the hyperimmunity  of SLE, but of course vitamin D is equally important in preventing both the osteoporosis of inflammation, the fracture and wasting risks  of cortisone treatment, and the vascular disease associated with SLE.  In the last year alone there have been 10 such SLE – vitamin D major studies – 7 from the Americas and 3 from Europe.

SLE as well as plain lupus of the skin are  generally regarded as disease that requires protection from the sun.

Now this week Wright 2009 shows that in children,  SLE is  associated with vitamin D deficiency, particularly among those subjects with SLE who are overweight.


The first case of SLE associated with cancer ( meningioma and cervix)-  is reported by Williams  1956. The latest – last month- highlights increased risk of  lymphoma, cervix and bronchus cancers.

Search for malignant melanoma MM and SLE finds the first reference in 1963. yet most of the papers are about reactions to interferon therapy, or immune markers- there is one solitary case report (1991 Sulkes, Israel) of a patient with indolent SLE who after 15 years developed and died of rapidly spread of MM. These authors comment on the infrequent association of SLE & solid cancers, the commonest  being uterus and bladder.

So it is exciting that while more sun exposure causes skin cancer and especially cutaneous melanoma  CMM, (Tuohimaa  2007),  sun exposure also improves survival from CMM-  and from a wide range of internal cancers – (especially stomach, colorectal, liver and gallbladder, pancreas, lung, female breast, prostate, bladder and kidney cancers). This favourable effect of more sunshine is obvious when comparing the lower cancer and heart disease deathrates in sunnier southern versus the darker northern countries. Only rare skin diseases eg porphyria cutanea tarda are contraindications to sun exposure of the skin. But at least one study Holme 2008 shows vitamin D deficiency in erythropoetic porphyria.

Professor Halstead 2008 (and many others)  conclude  that the high fructose corn syrup routinely used in fast foods and cooldrinks in first-world manufacturing is rapidly increasing obesity, lipidemia (and metabolic syndrome and cancer);  while folic acid  food fortification is causing low  B12 levels and thus possibly increasing dementia, vascular disease and advanced precancerous colorectal adenomas and breast cancer.   This trend is aggravated by at least  three scientifically unvalidated  obsessions of Regulators and the Medical hierarchy:

1.   low diet cholesterol in those with mild to moderate cholesterolemia;

ii.  low vitamin D –  low intake dairy products and less  sunlight exposure for fear of skin cancer; and

iii. warfarin (which blocks essential vitamin K) to reduce thromboses- whereas it worsens  both fracture risk  and vitamin D and K deficiency, and thus  arterial calcification, cancer and fractures;   all of which are reversed by vigorous vitamin B3-6-9-12 , C, D  & K supplementation.

Protection from both cancers and SLE is probably  associated with higher vitamin D level above ~100nmol/L.  Both lupus and cancers are due to altered immunity.  But SLE is due to increased autoimmunity- hence cancers   are infrequent during active SLE;  whereas cancers are due to reduced immunity – hence are associated with immune suppression, whether by cortisone (including stress) / chemotherapy, or deficiency of vitamin D – dietary and lack of sunshine..

It is now common cause that more  cancers occur with suppressed  blood  cholesterol – whether  the low cholesterol is cause d by or due to the cancer remains to be clarified; and at least one of the major statin cholesterol-lowering trials showed increase in breast cancer cases.

While there is no clear overall  relationship of statins to osteoporosis or cancer,  Kunitomo   1989showed that cholesterol reduces and corticosteroids enhance the toxicity of vitamin D in rats.  Montagnani 1994 showed that pravastain does not  interfere with the circulating levels of the main vitamin D metabolites.


For an acute infection, Cannell and Hollis 2008 suggest  vitamin D in an antimicrobial  dose of 2000iu/kg eg 120 000 iu a day for 3  days- to produce enough of the naturally occuring antibiotic cathilicidin.Ginde 2009 show that those with high vitamin D levels have less respiratory infections. This column has previously reviewed the dramatic benefits of vitamin D on infection mortality in AIDs- TB patients.   Obviously one is going to be cautious pushing vitamin D  in a patient with known kidney stones, or hypercalcemia.


Never mind the poor and chronically ill, the aging especially need much more vitamin D, and benefit the most. Even in a sunny fishing nation like Spain, elderly women do not get enough vitamin D from fish or other foods, and most have suboptimal blood levels of it.

Apart from  dietary intolerance and obsession reducing intake of cholesterol and dairy products, the vitamins and minerals in particular have been greatly depleted and imbalanced in commercially produced- and especially genetically-modified  food.   And while increasing longevity,  food scarcity -poverty and   mushrooming prices (cartel pricefixing that is ignored by well-paid politicians and regulators) – are prime causes,  Politicians and Regulators have worsened this by falling decades behind in ignoring the leading 20th pioneer nutritionist/ economists  like the USA’s Professors Linus Pauling the unique double Nobel prizewinner prophet of vitamin C and peace; Ken Galbraith; and  the UK’s  Sir Jack Drummond. The latter two respectively brought the Allies (under FD Rooseveld and WS Churchill)  through  WW2 by putting farming- healthy food production and pricing- as the painfully obvious priority- which selfserving  gluttonous politicians  like Nixon, Bush,  Kissinger, Mugabe and Mbeki, and most others leaders (who support, not just tolerate such despots)  simply ignore since they detest “surplus people”- the honest  poor;  if not also  hardworking farmers.

It is no coincidence that Pauling and Galbraith both graduated from agricultural colleges.  And no coincidence that all three nutritionists were the targets of  politician-business moguls because of the obstacles they posed to the profiteering national economic sabotage that is the lifeblood of ruthless businessmen-capitalists from before Nixon- Connolly- Reagan- Kissinger  and Thatcher, through to the Bushes and Blair and Montsano-GD Searle, Mbeki and Zuma,  and the arms, oil, banking, mining, media,  food, sex, tobacco-alcohol and medical-big pharma industry mafiosi cartel  who make or break  presidents and  governments.

James Ferguson makes a strong case for The Vitamin Murders, that Drummond (and his family) were butchered in  a Vitamin Industry contract  in France as a lesson to do-gooders because his advocacy of the primary role of good natural  nutrition and vitamins  was such an obstacle  to the fast food and synthetic drug industry.    Conspiracy theorists could argue that, like Pauling’s vitamin C, the Drug Industry have through the FDA managed to ensure that only this year is the FDA grudgingly moving to raise the Recommended daily Allowances of vitamin D (and C)  even fractionally above the present rickets- (and scurvy) preventing doses, as opposed  to their   modest 25 to 50fold  fold   higher intakes that have been known already for decades to be both safe and major benefit against all diseases.

John Le Carre’s The Constant Gardner echoes that ongoing conspiracy scenario, the battle between Big Pharma with it’s drug lobbyists (including the USA FDA and the European Union’s European Medicine’s Authority, and leading politicians) to promote their lucrative modern synthetic chronic  drugs (none of which have been shown to reduce all-cause disease and mortality as do natural supplements), versus nutritionists and informed consumers who know that broad natural supplements (vigorous vitamins, minerals and biologicals)  to bolster the failing adulterated food chain are more important and effective  than any patented designer drugs in combating all disease. Unfortunately the necessary advocacy for natural supplements has been muddied by fraudsters  like the Big Pharma- FDA- academia  cartel (who swamp the medical literature with trial and review papers favouring their snake oils), the Rath Foundation, and our local dissidents against reason  like  Mbeki, and Drs Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, Nkosasama Zuma and Olive Shishana.

CONCLUSION: In 2006 Dr Walter Stumpf in THE DOSE MAKES THE MEDICINE wrote:  “in recent years, discussion raged  about the negative effects of   estrogen-replacement therapy and its relationship to cancer.  In numerous articles, the side-effects of estrogen treatment were highlighted in a generalized fashion and, although consideration was given to the duration of treatment, the relationships to dose (let alone type and route of estrogen) were frequently left out. And yet, considerations of dose and time in pharmacology and toxicology are paramount.
Similarly, a
wareness of proper dosage is crucial to the development of future vitamin D therapies. Physiologic dosing of vitamin D does not cause hypercalcemia – hypercalcemia is related  to overdosing ie closer to 100 000iu/day. Considering the many target tissues that are unrelated to systemic calcium regulation, most therapeutic effects of vitamin D occur independently of the high-dose systemic calcium effects. Because of the biased focus on calcium, the many other effects tend to remain unnoticed and hidden.  Future research needs to give more consideration to dose-effect relationships by monitoring target functions independently of systemic calcium regulation.
New therapeutic applications of vitamin D can be established for cardiovascular, neurological, endocrine, immune, gastrointestinal, reproductive and other diseases, including posttraumatic and gerontological deficiencies, in which the polyfunctional effects of  the hormone not only come to bear, but can also be controlled and maximized for optimal health.”

Since the global population shift from rural to   city life and work the past century ie in our lifetispan,  humans have largely gone from being healthy longlived outdoor food-producing  workers living on their own fresh produce including organically grown unadulterated fresh  food and dairy products – or fish- (rich in micronutrients),   to working mostly indoors and consuming largely  micronutrient-depleted  food  as well as multiple noxious deliberate industrial pollutants- from sugar and alcohol  to estrogenics, pesticides, heavy metals, cornsyrup and aspartamate.

Like fish oil is the most important food extract we have (and businessmen are ruthlessly harvesting to extinction), vitamin D3  has become the anti-disease vitamin  of the past decade,  joining vitamins C & B as the  panacea vitamins that can and should be supplemented in far higher dose than anti-vitamin  “Regulators” and professional researchers and associations (with vested interests in protecting  their funder- Big Pharma) approve.

But as the more affluent age and increase in numbers,  the micronutrients that deplete (with longevity, the deteriorating food chain, and unnecessary drugs),- especially  vitamins  K, chondroglucosamine, N-acetyl cysteine, alphalipoic acid, Co-Q10, arginine, carnitine, carnosine,  riboseand the marine  EPA and DHA-   are  fast becoming the “vitamins”  of the next decade.

Tragically, edible marine products especially marine omega3 EPA+DHA are rapidly becoming so scarce that the vast majority of people  can  neither  source nor afford the minimum optimal gram a day, until science breaks through  to synthesize these uniquely beneficial free fatty acids. But at least the supply of minerals, and vitamins including D3, is inexhaustible and therefore freely available at reasonable cost.


dedicated to Dr Walter Stumpf, whose  >300 papers (~24% on vitamin D) on Medline apparently  span 1963 to 2008- on vitamin D the first  in 1979, the last  30years later appropriately on Vitamin D and the digestive system.  By comparison,  Pubmed lists only 3 papers by Albright,   in 1938-9.


17 August 2014: neil.burman@gmail.com

Sadly, this month’s publication of the biggest-ever trial of Prostate Screening , in 162 000 men across Europe followed  for a mean of 11years, showed no benefit in all-cause mortality, same as was found in  the 5 previous major RCTrials,  or  trials  of xray mammography:.

Lancet. 2014 Aug 6. Schröder FH1 ea  Screening and prostate cancer mortality: results of the western European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) at 13 years of follow-up ie 1.78  million patient years, in some 162 000 men  aged 55 to 69, randomized  to either a screening arm or a control group. If PSA was 3ng/ml or more, they were offered a biopsy. Screening took place on average every four years. Mean follow-up was 11 years.  7408 prostate cancer cases were diagnosed in the intervention group and 6107 cases in the control group. The rate ratio of prostate cancer incidence between the intervention and control groups was  1·66 (1·60-1·73) after 11 years, and 1·57 (1·51-1·62) after 13 years. The rate ratio of prostate cancer mortality was 0·85 (0·70-1·03) after 9 years, 0·78 (0·66-0·91) after 11 years, and 0·79 (0·69-0·91) at 13 years. The absolute risk reduction of death from prostate cancer at 13 years was 0·11 per 1000 person-years or 1·28 per 1000 men randomised, which is equivalent to one prostate cancer death averted per 781 (95% CI 490-1929) men invited for screening or one per 27 (17-66) additional prostate cancer detected. After adjustment for non-participation, the rate ratio of prostate cancer mortality in men screened was 0·73 (95% CI 0·61-0·88). Despite our findings, further quantification of harms and their reduction are still considered a prerequisite for the introduction of populated-based screening.
                                                                                                                   As a 2012 independent analysis on the web says,   Updated data from ERSPC trial still show no impact on all-cause mortality:    A new article in the New England Journal of Medicine this week has updated the prostate cancer-specific and all-cause (overall) mortality data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC).       This latest analysis of data by Schröder et al., and based on a randomized comparison of screening (with regularly scheduled PSA tests) as opposed to non-screening, has shown the following results in the predefined, core group of men aged between 55 and 69 years at the time of enrollment:
  • The average (median) follow-up for men in the core group was 11 years.
  • There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between the groups who were or were not screened for risk of prostate cancer.
  • Reductions in the risk for prostate cancer-specific mortality in men randomized to the screening group as compared to the unscreened group were
    • An absolute reduction of 0.10 prostate cancer deaths per 1,000 person-years
    • An absolute reduction of 1.07 prostate cancer deaths per 1,000 men who underwent screening
    • A relative overall reduction in the risk of prostate cancer deaths in the screening group of 21 percent
    • A relative overall reduction in the risk of prostate cancer deaths in the screening group of 29 percent after adjustment for non-compliance with screening
  • To prevent a single case of prostate cancer-specific mortality
    • 1,055 men would need to be invited to be screened
    • 37 cases of prostate cancer would need to be detected

The authors conclude that this analysis, which adds two additional years of follow-up data to the data originally published in early 2009, shows that “PSA-based screening significantly reduced mortality from prostate cancer but did not affect all-cause mortality.”

‘These new data are unlikely to help to clarify the debate over the value of mass screening for prostate cancer. From one point of view one can use them to argue that screening can prevent between 20 and 30 percent of prostate cancer-specific deaths. From the alternative point of view, one can argue that screening a million men would indeed prevent about 950 prostate cancer-specific deaths, but would also lead to the potential over-treatment of 36 out of every 37 cases of prostate cancer identified, and would have no impact whatsoever on overall mortality’.

Yoon Jae Lee, O.ea.The study was conducted using existing systematic reviews.   Results  In a total of 400 000 men  in 6 included trials from Europe, USA, and Canada, followed for about 10 years,  ie 4million patient-years, Prostate-cancer-specific mortality was not reduced based on similar prior reviews (relative risk [RR] 0.93; P=0.31). The detection rate of stage 1 prostate cancer was not greater, with a RR of 1.67 (95% CI, 0.95-2.94). No difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the screening and control groups (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-1.01, P=0.50).
Hayes JH1, Barry MJ2  Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts  review  evidence from randomized trials and related modeling studies examining the effect of PSA screening vs no screening on prostate cancer-specific mortality and to suggest an approach balancing potential benefits and harms during a longer follow-up (level B evidence).     Available evidence favors clinician discussion of the pros and cons of PSA screening with average-risk men aged 55 to 69 years. Only men who express a definite preference for screening should have PSA testing. Other strategies to mitigate the potential harms of screening include considering biennial screening, a higher PSA threshold for biopsy, and conservative therapy for men receiving a new diagnosis of prostate cancer.